What now Brexit?

[Ed P]

I actually felt like writing ‘Is Brexit a total waste of time & money’?

Although I recognise anything to do with Brexit is a bit of a Troll Topic I am now honestly and totally confused about what is going on. However perhaps that is because of some fundamental assumptions I have made, so I’ll list these below:

a) A ‘nuclear option’ of a total crash out of the EU is now impossible unless the Conservatives want to break up the UK, and cause an immediate General Election. The ‘Irish Question’ and the DUP in my view make such an option impossible.

b) The agreement with Eire (and the DUP) is to be sealed with a legally binding agreement promising ‘Full Alignment’ and open borders between Eire and Ulster. Theresa May has apparently promised this.

c) Further underlining point a) the recent Commons Defeat of a Brexit clause means that the Government has no option to ‘crash out’

The Irish Government have made clear that full alignment means that the UK will adopt all the EU rules and regulations that Boris et al complained about. Not only will we have to accept them we get no say in their content!

The open border means that Eire becomes the entry point of choice for anyone other than Irish wanting to come into the UK. i.e. we will not have control of our borders!

IF my assumptions are correct then I fail to see what has or will be accomplished by Brexit except to squander ten years of growth (we are now poorer than we were ten years ago), and keep a few people happy in a dream world of an isolated island, where we only let in/out the ‘right’ people.

As I said I recognise the potential for trolling so I’ll happily accept corrections to my assumptions.

Failing those corrections; ‘What the hell is going on!!’

 

[Dave Rice]

It’s a dogs dinner, but it always was going to be. We were told there was a plan, we now know there isn’t. We were told impact research had been done in excruciating detail, it hasn’t. The cabinet is divided. The same can be said of all parties except the Lib Dems who have always been clear what they want.

One issue is it was a Yes or No question (but it couldn’t be anything else) so the various factions are claiming the result as vindication for their particular views. Look at the politicians they go to these days for comments. They were the loonies they used to go to for extreme comments.

re point c), as I understand it it makes a No Deal a possibility if the deal is rejected by parliament and another can’t be done in time. I find it hard to believe that anyone concerned about sovereignty also voted to allow a handful of people draconian powers. We are a parliamentary democracy (and always had sovereignty anyway). If the Europeans can manage to get the deal through their parliament in time why can’t we?

The Irish question may have been better handled had the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland been in the cabinet. But TM wouldn’t do that as then the Welsh and Scots would have to be included too (and indeed they were promised they would be). She was obsessed with the leave / remain split and appointing leavers to certain key positions, no matter how suitable they were for that job. Of course it’s all worse now as she wasted 6 months on an uncalled for election that made her position weaker.

I believe there will be a deal as Europe will be hurt as well as us if there isn’t one but it cannot be as good as it is now. People are obsessed with tariffs but when the pound plummeted by 20% BMW didn’t go running to the chancellor demanding she do something (which is what we were told they would do if a tariff was imposed). It’s the paperwork and delays that will be the killer for European wide supply chain businesses, like Airbus locally here.

Then there’s security, universities and research, pharma, air transport, reciprocal health, visas  etc. It’s much, much more than WTO or not but that’s all they want you to hear.

[Alan Wood]

Completely agree with you. A total waste of time, money and resources.

[The Duke]

I still think it won’t happen. Have done since pre vote, and nothing yet has changed my mind.

I thing the circus will go on and we will find some scape goat to blame it on. It can’t be the EU though, so it’s down to NI or May herself.

Probably she will make/orrery  such A bad package, parliament will vote against it. And she will fall on her sword. And the Brexit will fade away.

I think that’s always been the pan. Few of the actual MPs wanted to leave, and they have been dumped with navigating the leave. I think they are just playing the game, and big payoffs will be given them when they fail. To cover any political face they will have lose.

This type of mess, is why I wanted the scotch ref to go through. I just wanted to see how the establishment would worm out of it. I didn’t get my Scottish circus. But got a second chance with this.

I voted stay, but secretary wanted to see a leave win, just to see how they fail and spin it.

[JayCeeDee]

Dave Rice wrote:

One issue is it was a Yes or No question (but it couldn’t be anything else)…..

Agree with all you’ve said Dave, apart from the bit quoted above.

The problem started when Cameron thought he knew better than the country and offered the Referendum as a Yes/No – In/Out decision. That was only ever going to end badly.

What he should have done was offer up a list of maybe 20 problems the UK thought we were having with Europe – basically a list of everything that they’re all arguing the toss over now. Each voter would have 5 votes to show what they thought were the top priority subjects that needed re-negotiating with the EU. We then could have re-negotiated our relationship with the EU from within having the mandate they needed. Always a better option than upping and leaving.

I’m no remainer, although in the first vote back in the 70’s I thought it seemed to be too late to pull out as we were by then, too committed. Again a badly judged offer of choices. We should have taken the hint of the troubles to come when De Gaulle issued his infamous ” Non”.

 

The above is over- simplified, but you get the gist. It’s Cameron’s arrogance and posturing – trying to appease the dissenters in the country and his party. He thought the outcome would be Remain and his position in the Party and the country would have been solidified. Unfortunately we are paying the price for that arrogance – yes, he took the fall when he resigned, but that was more of a cop-out, riding on the shirt tails of his need to get the hell out of there, having mis-judged things so badly.

 

 

[Ed P]

I tend to agree with Dave’s point there will be some sort of deal, but whether it achieves ANY of the Brexiteers aims seems to me to be unlikely. As many predicted, the dividing line (not border) between Ulster & Eire makes Brexit a completely impractical ideal unless we want to return to ‘Bloody Sunday’ days, and I cannot honestly see anyone except a lunatic wanting to go down that path. May has basically committed her parliament to both the customs’s union and full common market with all the rules & regs (plus human rights, digital alignment, EU laws etc) that this implies. Brussels wins, all we now have to find out is just how much we pay.

As I said at the start I really do not understand what is going on, and I suspect few if any can enlighten me, but if they can I’d welcome them doing so.

This all leads me to believe that we are going to be engaged in eighteen months of futile political masturbation, with all the political participants carrying the epithet that goes along with it.

[blacklion1725]

Well I swore I wouldn’t but…..

Yes they (Tories) are f*cking it up left, right and centre, and are in danger of squandering a massive opportunity to preserve some sort of country for our kids/grandchildren and beyond.

May’s vanity in assuming her snap election would strengthen her position was staggering and has led to the dirty alliance with the DUP and the shambles of an exit negotiation so far.

One thing remains unchanged. The existing, unregulated levels of migration from the EU in to the UK were and are unsustainable. If it hasn’t bitten your part of this country on the @rse yet then it would/will (depending on how long this shambles takes). I promise you that. I am now outside the catchment area of the school my kids went to 20 years ago (less than half a mile away)……have a wild guess why.

There are sensible arguments both ways but unfortunately a lot of bigotry to – much of it on MM – and sadly now creeping on to forumite via this post.

“and keep a few people happy in a dream world of an isolated island, where we only let in/out the ‘right’ people”

Nice, balanced stuff.

Firstly – the majority of those who voted – chose to leave so hardly a “few people”. Secondly, this assumption that there is only either “free movement” or “zero immigration” is beyond ridiculous. A sensible, controlled, immigration policy is entirely possible – but only outside the EU….we cannot influence it at all if we had stayed – plain fact.

An awful lot has also gone wrong economically while inside the EU since it crept – undemocratically, by stealth from a trading block in to its current, bloated form……much worse than we have it now in fact .

Many people have been getting poorer since well before the referendum – the pressure on housing, education, health and public services is due in no small part to the hundreds or thousands being added on to the population every year (more than half of which is from the EU).

The majority of countries in the world manage to exist outside the EU – it should be a relatively simple process to transition from “in” to “out” – and if it isn’t then you have to question what sort of club the EU is in the first place.

You could have held the referendum on “free movement” and there would have been a landslide, but unfortunately that would have been pointless – the only way to stop that was to get out all together. This doesn’t mean selecting who can/can’t come based on fear or discrimination, it means working out what the country needs, how many people we can accomodate, and making sure that above all we don’t sacrifice the futures of our own people for pan-European federalism (which incidentally someone else thought of a few decades ago). People have come here and conributed pre-EU and they will post-EU…all that will (or should) change is the open gate with nobody checking or counting.

Duke may well be right about if it happens at all, but if that happens then we are looking at a total betrayal of democracy in the UK.

Well done Ed you got a bite.

[Bob Williams]

Both sides lied to us. It was nothing but a sick pantomime, with Cameron playing the rear half of the donkey, the front half might as well have been BoJo. Two groups of politicians took sides and they all either lied, or exaggerated for effect, in order to convince the UK electorate of which vote to make. The result can be seen as divisions: across generations, populations, localities and the constituent nations of the United Kingdom itself, which is in greater danger of breaking up than it has ever been.

Take a look at FB sometime, observe the spread and growth of flag-waving, xenophobic, fascist organisations. Then observe how many ‘ordinary’ people cheer on their dumb, foreign-hating pronouncements. I even count some of my relatives amongst these people: for instance, a certain nephew wants to “Deport All Muslims NOW!” I asked him if this applied to his cousin’s neighbours, a lovely young 2nd generation family who help my niece to look after her husband, a seriously ill stroke victim. That same nephew is a BNP member and is always trumpeting Britain First on FB. That is the extreme side of Brexiteers you might think. Well it isn’t. There are millions who think like that. Brexiteers who are ordinary, decent people, are unfortunately in that same camp, by association.

As for our PM: who made BoJo Foreign Secretary, decided to go to the country when it was obvious that Corbyn was gaining voters, then have appealed to TEN Irish politicians from a right wing party to save her own government: weak is not the word. Desperate, misguided, appeasing: add your own here.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

I’m not going to get into the we shouldn’t have argument, my views are well known. That bit is done and dusted.

However it was the slimmest of majorities and the leavers must bring the remainers with them. Calling them remoaners doesn’t help, neither does you lost, suck it up.

Jumping on any scrutiny or challenging a particular approach as trying to scupper the whole thing is ridiculous. I can see why they wanted the Henry VIII powers (to get things through quickly) but these are politicians, it will be abused again and again. Look at the porkies we’ve been told already since the process began.

I cannot see how a “hard” Brexit could be anything but bad for the country. Yes we would survive, of course we would, but it wouldn’t be a pleasant experience. I am also dubious that we will get any wonderful trade deals from the rest of the world. All I can see in front of me is the same as the decade behind me, except there are no more libraries or public toilets to shut or bus routes to slash.

I’m afraid that a dose of pragmatism is going to be needed by the extreme Brexiteers in the same way remainers are being told to suck it up. Yes we are leaving but no it’s not going to be in the way you wanted.

TBH if I was my kids age (19 – 26) I would be looking at how to get out of here and I think they probably are. Brexit or not I don’t like the way this country is heading. Mean spirited and out to make a quick buck out of someone else seems to sum it up.

[blacklion1725]

Bob your examples may be correct -I’m sure they are but Brexit wasn’t a right/left issue. Corbyn in private is almost certainly “leave” by all accounts – maybe for different reasons but he is old Labour who were always anti until Kinnock started wetting his beak.

The Socialist Workers Party – who spend every waking minute protesting about anything and everything – specially “Fascists” – campaigned to leave. They are now campaigning against a Soft Brexit (on the grounds that it keeps the single market).

George Galloway campaigned to leave. It is not a right/left argument….please don’t get sucked in to that trap by those who want to paint “leave” as far-right – or at least check with the SWP first ;). There are idiots of every persuasion, but cheap shots (and I absolutely do not mean your good self) at people who hold a different opinion don’t help anyone.

[Ed P]

BL sorry I offended you, by saying a ‘few’ people I meant it – just a few but very vocal people on the far right voted in that way for those obviously jingoistic reasons. Farage played up to this audience with his infamous UKIP posters so I don’t feel too badly about resurfacing this aspect. However, those few were probably enough to tip the balance of the whole referendum based on UKIP’s percentage standing at that time. (Incidentally I agree that immigration was not a socialist versus conservative issue, if you look at the exit polls it was the typically socialist areas that were the strongest supporters of Brexit.)

I’m also sorry to push it further, but controlled immigration with an open Irish/Ulster border – how exactly is that going to work? Believe it or not, that is not a troll but an honest question, as the DUP have firmly ruled out any additional border between Ulster and the rest of the UK. Ulster and (say) England have to be treated in exactly the same way according to May’s commitments.

That plus my point on EU regs makes me question exactly what is going to be accomplished? I suspect a few politicians are starting to ponder this self-same question and how to wriggle out of the political mess they have made. I just hope for once that they put the country ahead of their own backsides. Otherwise I fear we will pay billions and finish with far less than we started with.

If anyone can point to the flaws in my assumptions I’d love to hear them as this whole mess is starting to make me concerned for my offspring’s futures.

[blacklion1725]

Ed you have half a point with that (Irish border) – but the open border will not include the residency implications of “Free Movement” (an understated term if ever there was one).

Why though do you mention the far right and not the far left (ironically united on the referendum) – you don’t get much more far left than the SWP – and for them immigration was not even the issue at all – in fact they don’t even recognise international borders – they are Marxist Internationalists – but you are not digging them out even though they almost certainly outnumber the far right in this country…..why is that?

The far right link is just cheap, easy, lazy and just plain wrong. A look in the other direction woudn’t do you any harm.

[The Duke]

There is a law in place (an EU one) that states (paraphrased of course), is an immigrant enters another country and fails to find work they can be sent packing.

So there are adequate laws in place.however, the UK gov doesn’t enforce this.

Also, its the immigrants from outside Europe the bigots seem to hate the most, they don’t seem to realise they have F-all to do with Brexit, one way or another.

Last month may announce that any national living here before 2019 cut off date, they can stay.next step is keeping the free movement of people and trade, and the EU laws to protect EU citizens. so well end up in almost the same position bit with no seat at the table.

Seems like a no-win situation

[D-Dan]

I’m not going to ramble on this. I voted leave, I stand by my vote, but not the way it’s being done right now, which is not even remotely representative of what I voted for.

However, the name calling has to stop. Brexiteers is equally demeaning, as are the various “are you happy now” and variations of. It’s not those who voted leave that are to blame for the current mess. It’s the unelected PM that is wholly accountable.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[Dave Rice]

Well said Dan. I had high hopes for her when she was the last one standing (and I am no Tory), but it seems she can only operate in a tightly controlled environment which this isn’t. Seems she was just the best of a bad bunch. I can say that about Corbyn too. I can vote in leadership contests and I didn’t vote for any of them as I didn’t think any of them were up to it (but I did vote for the deputy). It’s the only time in my life I’ve not voted even though I live in a safe constituency.

BL, you are quite right about the SWP but they weren’t the ones on prime time telly with huge posters peddling their nonsense and Farage was. TBH I’d forgotten all about the SWP even existing. Also I don’t think we need to be “BBC” about this and be scrupulous about quoting all the idiots. I most certainly didn’t take Eds example as calling out “the right” but calling out extremists in general.

So in the spirit of theres more unites us than divides us, I think we are all agreed that rightly or wrongly we are leaving the EU, it’s now all about how it’s handled. Both in the negotiations and in uniting the country. However I fear that the ongoing rift in the Tory party (and would probably be true of Labour if they were in) is helping neither with the pot being thoroughly stirred by some of the media.

I don’t know if any of you saw the Channel 4 documentary, Grayson Perry: Divided Britain were he visited pro-Brexit and pro-Remain parts of the country and made 2 pots based on what he heard from both sides. I’ve seen them at the Arnolfini and you can’t tell which is which, the values represented are very much the same.

[Ed P]

I’ll just post a few links that sum up the mess in I think a factual way (but some are open to further interpretation and are somewhat contradictory).

The most important is an FT Article. Note especially the piece on Human Rights and the Good Friday Agreement.

Second what the Irish believe are firm commitments by May. RTE link

The first link highlights that the UK can never abrogate the Human Rights Act or the primacy of the EU based court. (The Daily Mail’s prime target that they always wrongly  associate with the EU)

The second link highlights the commitment to the EU Common Travel Area. Once a person is in Eire the UK is wide open for someone to come into the UK and ‘disappear’.

The Irish Government have a different view on what was agreed as they include ‘Full Alignment’ with the EU Customs Union come what may. (Irish News link)

Put whatever spin you like on these reports but I come out with it being a glorious mess and we find ourselves on a path that with 20:20 hindsight we would have been better advised to not follow.

[Dave Rice]

My prediction.

There will be a transition deal where much will remain the same (even if words are used to make it seem all things to all sides). I think that much we already know.

At the start of that, even if nothing else triggers it sooner, there will be an election. The outcome of that will decide a lot of the final direction we will take. I am predicting the Tories will implode despite themselves (they can’t help it) and a more left of centre coalition (even if it is a wholly Labour party one) will take over. How left of centre depends how much the Lib Dems have to be involved.

We will end up with a “Norway” type situation where cannot economically afford to be wholly out but politically cannot be wholly in. OK so it’s the worst of both worlds but it will be sold on the premise that we can easily pull the plug at any time. TBH I would be quite happy with that as the best outcome of a terrible decision (in my view).

[Richard]

D-Dan I go along with your analysis of most of the split Brinners or Brouters there was a far more nuanced split between them than the more rabid elements suggested. It was not the EEC not some cobbled together mess in the making, just look at how dissenters have always been treated by the building feral lot e.g. the damage to Greece which needed help not jack boot style beating down. While the human rights idea might have been sound but it appears to have ended up as a made in the UK mess. So we are stuck with too many dregs while not always respecting far more genuine human right to life and liberty issues. But no doubt, it made Mrs Blair richer.

It took me a while to work out what the SWP was, then I remembered the bunch I used to see in the local town. A more hate filled antisocial small bunch of layabouts and non workers as you could wish to find. They made the average extremest from any side look almost main stream.

[Bob Williams]

I come from a very Socialist background, as I have said here before. My grandfather was a founder member of the Independent Labour Party at the turn of the 19th century:

http://tinyurl.com/y9x3ahu2

Granddad always remained an ILP man until his death and always bemoaned the inability of the its offspring the Labour Party, to cling to its original beliefs. In WWI that meant becoming a pacifist and a Conscientious Objector. He spoke up in Hanley market place against the War throughout the four years of conflict and he was reviled for it throughout the Potteries, arrested twice but rescued and bailed by his friends. As the years went by and the slaughter intensified, grandad was slowly joined around his soap box by severely wounded men from the trenches who spoke about the horrors. They were all drowned out by “Rent a Mobs” of men who appeared young enough to fight, but were all in civvies. This was all told to dad and myself at the age of 8 by grandad, one year before the cancer took him in 1954. Right from a young age, I could have conversations with him and by 1953 he knew his disease was going to kill him, so I believe that he was going to unburden himself about his past to the son and grandson that listened to him.

This may all seem irrelevant to the discussion here. It is not, because of some words grandad wrote for me a few weeks before he died: “You are a Thinker lad – there is always one of us who is. You may choose whatever politics you wish when you grow up, but avoid these and never accept their words as true: The incompetent, the weak, but most of all, the extremists.”

I was given the envelope with these words, at 16 by my dad. I had brushes with the Communist Party of GB at 17 and gave it the elbow. My brother was a Labour Councillor who was ejected from the local Party for backing working miners (he and my other brother, nephews and in-laws were all working) during the ’84 strike. He was re elected as Independent Labour when the local NUM were similarly rejected by all the local mineworkers, and the UDM came into being. He was hated by these ex- Labour Councillors, for associating and working with the “Class Enemy” Conservatives on his Council, in order to build new housing in the village for Seniors and young people. I wrote his speeches and taught him how to deliver them. I met politicians and potential politicians, from all persuasions. I liked some, detested a few and was totally indifferent to most, who had nothing to offer ‘their’ people but their own ambition. If my big brother had lived past the cancer that killed him at 59, I believe he would have made it to Westminster. He had the support and would have got the votes.

That is my background: I am, on the face of it, a Socialist, but I am not to be put into any box that easily. Listening to politicians, of all persuasions, has made me , if not cynical, then at least not inclined to easily believe whatever they say, or whatever is said about them. (the latter should be viewed with more disbelief than the former.) I can correspond with my former Conservative Councillor just as well as with my new Labour Councillor (a young lady who takes a very jaundiced view of her Leader) I have met and been spoken at by striking miners, SWP activists, Anarchists, a Cambridge Uni student who thought she was supporting working miners until one of them raped her, and a Nottinghmashire Tory MP who refused to apologise for lying to me in print. And not forgetting one Arthur Scargill, a few years before the’84 battles. My brother took me to an NUM ‘do’ in Sheffield and I was buttonholed by this ugly, mouthy guy who tried to involve me in a conversation, which was plainly meant to be a one-sided harangue about his own barmy ideas. I tried 3 times to interrupt, then jammed my heel down onto his foot, turned and walked away. My brother was cracking up, the S. Yorks. NUM Mafia not pleased to see their leader hopping about and using such basic language. We left.

So I am very much aware that there are politicians of both sides of the Brexit divide, My political “education” has continued from the age of 8 to this day. The only words I can offer regarding the self-inflicted wounds this country is suffering today, and will continue to suffer, are these:

If/when the situation changes, it will not be for the best. We are in for some hard times which will make the financial, economic and political situation worse. But it makes no sense to apportion blame: what is going to take place, will happen.

And within 3 years, there will be a majority Labour-led government.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The Duke]

I a socialist that likes to own houses.

A perfect world would be the star trek set up. However, that is just socialist come communistic setup. Something is for sure, there always has to be a top dog and the minions, with one set of shmucks at the bottom of the hill of shit, in a capitalist set-up. This leads to war and the race to the bottom.

Communism doesn’t work In a bubble surrounded by a majority of capitalist states. as their imaginary money inflates, communist states ultimately go bust.

However, this doesn’t mean that communism is a failed experiment, as some call it. If we, the world, flipped tomorrow to such a set up it would work.but too many states, organisations and influencers, would never let it happen. Why would they take massive personal losses for the good of all future generations?

Something is for sure, as populations rise (should top out at 11bn ish) and automation and AI take over, less and fewer jobs will be available. There will be a tipping point where taxes won’t cover the states outputs.

Then what? It’s coming.

We need a system where people work a few hours a week because they want to, cos their assigned to, etc… A world of almost full, micro-time jobs. And then other people that work for the status of it. Think of it as top managers would be full/part time, workers micro hours, but many of them.

All paid the same, all treated the same. All produce belongs to all.

This is a pipe dream, for such a thing to work countries need to come together, ditch borders and stop us and the philosophy.

The powers that be would rather its minions just kill each other I’m their quest to take lands and resources .as much as we think we have moved on, we still think the same as the Persians, Romans, English, Spanish and currently the Americans do. Ie backwards.

So I’m all for a united Europe, hopefully, pull in Russia too and even China, as if we keep fracturing, it will only get harder.

[Author]

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