The true cost of energy

[keith with the teef]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cdtb?partner=uk.co.bbc&origin=share-mobile

Wonderful 👏

[Ed P]

I ask for your indulgence/pity when I make my reply as today has stripped out all optimism from me.

First Ben Wallace stated that Putin would not use nuclear weapons, but then followed it up by saying that Putin is mad enough to do anything! After that I was hit by the Conservatives doing pirouettes, and a Chancellor who forgot the main findings of his economic history thesis, which were that the value of money is purely what the market thinks it is, and is totally dependent in the market;s confidence that the currency is in safe hands and knows what its doing. Kwasi forgot all that with speeches aimed at the Conservative Conference and forgot that his real audiences were not just Daily Mail readers but the financial markets and the electorate. This made me wonder at the wisdom of having democracy if it results in naive leaders such as these.

Anyway to turn to your post in this spirit of doom and gloom:

The problem with all this prognostication is that you cannot get from ‘here’ to ‘there’ instantaneously and without spending megabucks and an awful lot of pain.

a) An oft proffered solution is to move to electric heat pumps.  These really only work well in well-insulated homes, (biggest size is about 15Kw) but only 25% of houses were built after the 1980s and many are deliberately designed to be draughty in order to support gas/coal fires. Insulating such homes (especially rented properties) is a BIG ask, will take decades to complete and may not even be practical.

b) Today, roughly 80% of homes are heated by gas. Switching to other forms of heating is both costly and will take time. Again I’d say it will take decades, and need megabucks of support from the Government.

c) OK – assuming that miraculously all dwellings now only use electric heating. Of course the Government is investing in upgrading the grid – Huh – I think not, even now, due to grid restrictions no more computer centres can be built in the Thames power area!

d) So we won’t need gas – again huh! Unfortunately with everyone on electric heating and nuclear running late what will we use for heating during the night when the wind doesn’t blow, or even during still cold foggy days? Only gas-fired power generation offers the ‘instant on’ generation capability. Even if nuclear power is plentiful that does not take kindly to a rapidly changing demand. (slow to ramp up or down)

e) So we will built mega-sized battery storage instead. No, again as the scale and cost would be huge and even if those could be addressed it will take decades. Probably a better medium term solution would be pumped storage and a barrage across the Severn. We will have two next year please!

Looking on the really gloomy side, this winter we also face huge short term problems caused by Ukraine/Russia.  It will be a big ask for Europe to go cold and short of power to support Ukraine. But if that happens it could result in UK gas shortages if our balancing Norwegian supply is diverted into Europe.  Cutting off domestic gas is ‘hard’ as it is an all or nothing route. So the Government will cut gas-fired power generation which will result in rolling power cuts (keeping ‘essential supplies running), and possibly a 3 or 4 day working week with candles and no TV in the evening.  I’ve been there once, it was called the 70s ‘Winter of Discontent’. I think I’ll go out and buy a kerosene lamp and some candles.

Interesting times, I wish that I had retired to the Antipodes!.

[JayCeeDee]

I think that people with solar, ( me among them) who thought they were aspiring to being independent, are now looking to install batteries or upgrade their battery capacity to even maintain that direction. I seriously wish that we had installed batteries at the same time as our solar – and not just the VAT-saving aspect. There appears to be a shortage of batteries atm in the market with rumours of 6-month delays or more.

[Ed P]

Be careful wrt batteries, the standard installation does NOT give you an UPS. When the mains feed goes down the battery stops feeding the house – this is for the safety of any workers working on power lines. Of course when your power goes down your gas fired central heating safeties shut everything down to ensure that you are not only in the dark, but cold as well. Still it saves gas!

In order to run a battery as an UPS you need another bit of kit that cuts the link between house and mains supply that has been approved by your power supply authority.

Life is never easy

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

Life is never easy

Yes, it’s that balance between the increased cost, in case of a rare ( but increasingly likely ) occurrence of power cuts, ( short or longer term ) and automatic off-grid capability. And that’s before you start to think about AC or DC coupled systems, the extra cost of an inverter to supply ‘critical’ house consumption, etc.

Time for a lot more research.

[Ed P]

I thought of using an off-the-shelf UPS just to run the central heating system – boiler controls plus one central heating pump.

I calculated that the running load would be adequately served by an off-the-shelf £200 0.5Kw UPS. Unfortunately the ‘running’ load is a LOT less then the motor startup load which I think would be as much as seven times greater. At that point I gave up as a 5Kw UPS would be well outside my budget at something like £5000!

[JayCeeDee]

My early thoughts are with Pylontech batteries, and Victron Inverters. Early days, but I like the 10 year warranty ( 7 + 3 ) on the modular batteries that can be stacked or racked, and I came across Victron when doing the Campervan Solar for a friend and was impressed. That covers the likely what, but how is a different ball-game.😃 Wiring it to charge from solar, take over on a power cut and isolate where necessary will be interesting.

That would bring your UPS substitute in at ~£3k instead of 5k, barring any other accessories required.

[Les.]

Like Edp, I well remember the three day week with the electricity cuts. At the time, I was on a factory with thirteen gas fired kilns, and two electric kilns.

If one of the gas fired kilns was firing, and one of the many unscheduled or short duration  cuts took place, I was the one responsible.

A 3am phone call was quite common, so I would get in the car (I think I had just sold my Velocette motorcycle).

The safety circuits were of course the reason they went off, and only myself and two operatives, under my supervision were allowed to light them up again. Depending how long the power was off, I had to decide at what point in the firing schedule I should start it from. I was glad when it was all over.

Electricity cuts now would only mean darkness and battery radio availability, but no effect at all on my heating system. I have a dual burner (one in summer, two in winter) Rayburn cooker / central heating boiler. I installed a single 28mm pipe circulation system and no pump. Gravity circulation as was common in the big houses 80+ years ago.

Of course, I need to keep my oil tank topped up. Oil prices have risen, but a lot less than other fuels. A recent delivery, with the VAT, cost about 98 pence per litre.

When I first used a Rayburn, probably mid to late ’80s, I was paying 12p per litre, as it had just gone up from something lower.

I have a new Tilley lamp in the loft, so I would have to get a few litres of paraffin to solve the lighting problem.

Les.

[Ed P]

I joked a little about a kerosene lamp. I already possess an LED rechargeable battery powered lamp that gives far more light for less power usage – but unfortunately it does not put out the warmth of a kerosene lamp.  As we live in a late 60s house we still have a standby gas fire in the living room. When this is  set on high it heats the chimney stack and a lot of the house as well. SWMBO and I just  need to stock up our pads with lots of films and books and we will be  a lot better off than we were in those 70s days of rolling blackouts.

I sympathise with your issue of lighting off a big furnace. When I worked in a refinery one of our furnaces was a gas-fired issue that worked a bit like the combustion half of a jet engine (so called high intensity burners). It was near instant on, but scary and noisy as hell. Today these are often used by power generation setups because they are relatively small, and very quick to get on-stream and producing power.

[Ed P]

This link may be a good start for your battery research,  coupled with the article’s link to the Off-grid example. (I think the pair of big grey switches next to the Blue Victron battery controller are the bits the local Electrical Authority have to bless)

It reminded me that I have a 1Kv UPS not currently in use. When the cuts start I’ll make sure it is fully charged and plug the telly, Sky box and some lights into it – that will REALLY annoy any nosy neighbours! (We will however still be cold because of the large startup current draw of even small motors.)

 

[Ed P]

In order to get French cooperation on illegal immigration, Truss is set to commit us to power cuts this winter.

Speaking to The Times:

“Truss said the UK and its neighbours, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, should commit to keeping open energy connections this winter. The UK sends and receives gas and electricity through undersea cables and pipelines linked to the continent.”

Previously the National Grid had plans to cut off the inter-connectors rather than have UK power cuts. As the (probable US) sabotage of the Russian Nordstream  gas pipelines (Russia had nothing to gain by such action) now means inevitable winter energy shortages in Europe we are going to get sucked into the same problem.

Everyone had better update their power cut strategies e.g. buy UPS boxes,  battery lamps, candles and extra thick onesies!

 

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