Stock up on Wooly Pullovers and Bedsocks for this Winter!

[Ed P]

If this article is to be believed Europe will be experiencing major electrical power cuts for the next five years or so. Unfortunately the UK is not immune as we will be bidding against the EU for electricity supply from Norway.

I’m often inclined to take tales of imminent doom with a pinch of salt, but the linked thread is well researched and from my somewhat limited ‘Grid’ knowledge appears to be very well founded.

If I thought it would be read and understood by my MP I would send a copy. However I will not bother as, like most MPs, mine is in the techno-ignorant category. As it happens, and probably for totally the wrong reasons, the Truss Government is now over-turning many of the ‘Green’ restrictions on energy provision and maybe with luck and Global Warming we can scrape through the next five years . There is however a huge gap to bridge, and only gas powered generation has that near instant capability of responding to surges in demand. This winter could prove dire for everyone.

My attempt to paraphrase this critical, but somewhat technical thread into non-technical language is as follows:

1) Electrical supply must always at all times match demand (and vice versa). As the UK+Ireland is somewhat standalone from Europe this is easier for us than it is for continental Europe.  Grid scale power cannot be ‘stored ‘ (For info, there is a UK/France interconnection and we have been selling surplus UK power to France for much of this Summer)

2) Politicians everywhere have ducked the issues of providing new electricity generation for far too long. i.e. unfounded nuclear fears, untimely shut down of legacy CO2 emitting production under-investment in electricity generation . Too many politicians have just kicked energy supply problems into the long grass. No-one has addressed megascale electricity storage in a timely fashion e.g. dam the Severn Estuary etc.

3) The answer now HAS to be non-green as there are long periods when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow, or there are periods when rain does not fall combined with no wind. Electrical storage (dams, batteries etc) could help a little but the problem is far bigger and more imminent than these options. Green energy should remain a long-term commitment but somehow we have to survive the next five+ years.

4) All our chickens are coming home to roost, and continental Europe is far too interconnected – adding Ukraine would probably bring everyone to their knees.

5) Only Norway can ride high. The UK is perilously close to major problems, and must rely on Norwegian supply, assuming Continental Europe takes second place.(?)

6) Ukraine and associated gas shortages now make the prospects of bridging any gaps through gas-fired generation unrealistic. Italy, and Hungary will probably be in deep poo with rolling power cuts the order of the day.

7) From a parochial UK position, we need to reverse some of the gas shutdowns and if possible bring back on line some oil and coal fired generation capacity if we cannot get enough gas.  I think it possible that we could face rolling power cuts this winter as we did in the 70s but for very different reasons.  We need to educate the often non-scientific/technical Green lobbies on this problem and get them on board as some unpalatable short-term measures are going to be needed.

Thermal blankets and extra home insulation might be a good investment!

If anyone can make a better non-technical precis, please feel free to do so, then maybe I can send something to my MP and Green-leaning newspapers like The Guardian.

 

[Ed P]

Just as an addendum – the Russian seizure and re-routing of the production from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant now makes strategic sense. If Europe covers Ukraine’s electricity shortfall this winter then Italy is at major risk, if Europe does not cover the shortfall then Ukraine faces major problems.

As the Chinese Government states:

“China supports all efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis. The pressing priority is to facilitate talks for peace. The fundamental solution is to address the legitimate security concerns of ALL parties and build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture.”

Maybe as the European power problem becomes understood steps will be taken to rein in the some of the more hawkish voices in the West and pressure the Ukraine to accept that throwing Russia out of the Ukraine and seeking reparations is an unrealistic goal.

[Drezha]

I believe the government have already confirmed the my local coal power station is going to continue operating at full capacity (as they were due to shutdown part of it this year).

Incidentally, Germany just nationalised the owner.

"Everything looks interesting until you do it. Then you find it’s just another job" - Terry Pratchett

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