I have never believed in just looking at one source of information, so I try and see what the Russian and German media are saying with respect to the war in Ukraine.
The Russian pronouncements on their set-backs in Kherson are predicably that their withdrawal was a tactical action to strengthen supply lines and organise their defences behind a river line. AFAIK there have been no reports on how well they have carried out the very difficult task of conducting a fighting retreat across a river, but as Western press have not referred to it as a bloody shambles it is reasonable to assume that Russia has achieved its objective in a reasonable state of order. What the Russian press then infer is that they will now be content to conduct remote economic infrastructure warfare and let winter play its part. They are also counting on Western fatigue in terms of continuing to support Ukraine’s economy and war efforts.
As Germany are the biggest EU contributors to Ukraine’s efforts it will be interesting to watch their reactions, Politico has a good article on Germany which I would paraphrase as saying that Germany is now rudderless and does not really know what to do. I would guess that Winter and the impact of high gas prices are going to play major political roles in what Germany does next.
The next four months could well see a stale mate developing. As even the US has started direct discussions with Russia, in my view the Ukraine Government would be wise to use this period while they still have some bargaining chips. Unfortunately Both Russian and Ukrain leaders have talked themselves into holes so negotiations will definitely need third parties to help (and blame).
I find it hard to believe that either side are going to come out winners on this, and 100,000+ military deaths on both sides will have been for nothing very tangible.
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