Russiagate, Geopolitics, National Politics, Gas, Ukraine and us

[Ed P]

Whatever happens, Ukraine will have major impacts on everyone.

As others may remember, Dominic Cummings had extremely close ties to Russia, and in his current role as chief BoJo nay-sayer, he has surfaced thoughts over the current Ukraine situation that are to say the least interesting.

According to Cummings’ friends, this all traces back to the Democrats attempt to smear Trump over alleged links to Russia – the so-called RussiaGate. The Durham report has actually turned this upside down, and it now looks like Trump was correct in saying that this was all an illegal smear by Hilary Clinton. At the same time it appears that Trump’s allegations concerning Biden’s son’s links with Ukraine were also true. So just like the second Iraq war, US personal and domestic politics may have played a major role in orchestrating the largest NATO war game in a decade (including live firing) on the northern borders of Belarus during 2021. (Defender Europe 21) in an attempt to hide the Durham report findings under the carpet.

(Apologies for using Republican NY Post links, the Democrat press are shying away from this mess)

As usual unfortunately US State Dept. does not learn from history that you do not provoke the Russian Bear, and the peoples of Ukraine may pay the price.

They will not be the only ones paying the price, as the recent moves against the Nord Sream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany coinciding with the Germans agenda to close their nuclear power stations results in a world-wide shortage of LNG gas tankers which in turn means that everyone will pay much higher prices for gas for the foreseeable future.

Hopefully, once the posturing is over everything will settle back down, and every one will have won something:

The US will have beaten the Germans into line.

Russia will have formalised its occupation of Donetsk and Lukansk

BoJo escapes media attention over PartyGate

Macron appears statesman-like in time for his elections

The only losers are the Germans and higher gas prices for everyone else.

[Ed P]

For balance, Democrat media such as the NYT say that the Durham report is based on pure speculation e.g. DNS logs cannot show that a person actually went to a web site. Biden’s son never actually admitted ownership to the incriminating Mac. etc.

Unfortunately all the NYT/Democrat media seems to be paywalled so I cannot provide links.

 

[Ed P]

Unfortunately the ‘hopefully’ result did not play out. Brinkmanship in negotiations often does not turn out well, and both sides have played it to the full. Ukraine refused to fully implement the Minsk peace accord, and Russia refused to back down on its demands for demilitarized buffer states.  Destruction and war is now in progress. We just have to hope that Russia constrains its geographical aspirations to the Donbas region or the whole of Europe and Russia could be in the deep poo.

Be prepared for both gas and petrol shortages and price hikes.

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

Unfortunately the ‘hopefully’ result did not play out. Brinkmanship in negotiations often does not turn out well, and both sides have played it to the full.

Not particularly helped by our idiot defence Minister running his mouth off!!!

Historically ( a century and a half ago ) he may have been accurate, but the world was a different place then. Were Putin to ‘lend’ Ukraine the troops currently on the border with Russia, our cut-price Army ( albeit of wonderful lads ) would likely have problems kicking Ukraine’s backside.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Well have given the Ukrainians anti tank missiles, lets see what they do with them.

[Richard]

There was an attempt to compare the odious bigot and part-time gay icon Tzar Putin, with the equally odious, though for different reasons, Trump. This forgot that Tzar Putin has spent many years honing his strategic activities, all but banning all dissent, and now declaring it to be treason not to agree that he, and only he, is right. Tzar Putin developed strategic interests such as titanium production, driving down world prices to put non-Russian facilities out of production, or building world reliance on gases and products valuable to chip production. Trump not only made the USA grate on the world, but he also created a totally divided country with his pathetic moaning about anyone who was not with his weirdness. Perhaps it was only because Trump lacked the laws allowing him to shoot, poison or as a last resort imprison those who offended him that he was not successful.

In one sense they are similar, neither can stand any hint of critical comment, both hold indefinite grudges against everyone who slights them in any way. However, rather than do so behind a mask of his country Russia first and ever only first, Trump directed his venom in non-structured ways that prevented any hope of his country’s cohesion. Rather than ensuring the USA steel production, (or any other strategic material) was home supported, he happily bought from China for his vanity products.

So, now we see that an imperialist thug Tzar Putin wants to rule the world and threatens nuclear destruction to anyone who does not agree, thus funnelling his inner Trump.

We should not fail to consider the huge debt the new Tzar owes to the weak and vacillating EU. Germany, in the shape of, Mrs Merkel, having decided that relatively clean atomic power was not acceptable, fed the German addiction to Russian gas by terminating the country’s nuclear industry, having decided that the use of Russian gas was superior. Now the Germans addicted to Russian gas dare not act against the Tzar’s interest. Several of her sisters in the EU of course bought this line. One should wonder how much the Tzar promoted this line of ‘ditch-your-own-interests’ environmental madness to the snowflake protesters. As a result, the EU was rendered close to being a Tzar Putin pet, who must not be troubled.

At least the French have now been stirred into action and detained a boat, having seen the streets of the Ukraine filling with corpses from both sides. Happily, many are Russian, sadly, too many are Ukraine nationals. That the stupid BBC managed to bring on an apologist who did not understand the difference between the English word ‘flowers’ and the English words for ‘rubble’ and ‘corpses’ when describing the Tzar’s assault on the Ukraine in glowing terms. This after the Tzar announced his desire to rid the Ukraine of Nazis, by acting like a one himself his delusion clearly knows no bounds.

Are the daft Extermination Rebellion, those who want everyone else’s homes to be expensively insulated to excess, while ignoring their own homes’ wastefulness, also buying their fixes from the rouble machine?

So, now the world faces a fate far worse than the snowflakes and woke keyboard warriors could ever hope to understand. There is an open season for aggressors and a “beautiful” fixation with identity politics, and we must not forget using the correct pronoun, or the Kleenex supply will all be used up. Oh dear, what will the brave keyboard lot all cry into then?

[Ed P]

While I do not disagree with your cartoon portrayal of either Trump or Putin, it must not be forgotten that US State Dept as usual have totally failed to anticipate the consequence of their actions (so too Putin). The former Iron Curtain countries play a similar historic role in the Russian psyche (1795+) as do the Caribbean and Latin America countries to the US.

Not a totally fair comparison I’ll admit, but it was not that long ago (in Thatchers time) that the US invaded and killed people in the Crown Colony of Granada. They invaded using over-whelming force on the pretext that their democratically elected Marxist Government posed a threat to US interests and lives.

The West also shoulders some blame in encouraging Ukraine to think about both EU and NATO membership as a deterrent to Russian aggression  — that really worked out well for them.

[Dave Rice]

I trust the Americans about as far as I trust the Russians and Chinese. I had a real eye-opener when working in the Defense industry and the willingness to nick our commercial secrets never mind anything else. You did not take a laptop through customs. Let’s not forget the The Iran–Contra affair in the dodgy dealing stakes either.

Will the Conservative party and the City rid themselves of Russian money? Not a chance. I see Rees-Mogg is up to his armpits in it, except of course it isn’t his company where it’s dealings are concerned but it is when it comes to pay day. And there’s Boris £160k tennis match in 2014. The sound bite denials from that are very familiar to those being given today, being exactly the same.

[Ed P]

It is rare that I agree with the adjectives that Richard uses, but Putin’s actions in Ukraine have been totally odious. He totally miscalculated and failed to have his military just walk into a compliant state to establish a Russian buffer zone. Even if he now ‘wins’ his criminal actions will instead have turned his ‘buffer zone’ into an Afghanistan of resistance that will bleed Russia dry in both economic and military terms.

There are however historic lessons for the West. We need to be careful about economic sanctions in the longer term as such sanctions directly caused Japan to go to war, and it is arguable that German hyperinflation of the 1920s led directly to the rise of the Nazi party and the Holocaust. Any future positive changes in Russian attitudes will need to be ‘rewarded’, in contrast to the way the West treated Russia in the 90s.

[Richard]

Dave, while I agree that Putin’s money should be seized and the assets of Putin’s puppets should be expropriated, I have also been shocked to see how far his tentacles have threaded their way into society. The following have been named in the House of Commons as ‘Putin’s’ henchmen, John Kelly from Harbottle & Lewis, Nigel Tait from Carter Ruck, Hugh Tomlinson QC from Matrix and Geraldine Prouder from CMS. Action was started against the author, who claimed that Abramovich bought Chelsea on the orders of Putin. Using the law as a weapon has, sadly, become an option of choice for the odious ends of society. While I quoted the names of those name in the House of Commons, there are many others who remain unnamed. The so-called ‘Good Law Project’ was designed to ensure as much investment, purchasing of goods and service went overseas, especially to EU organs, rather than to home-grown entities. This is why we all have had to make do with Chinese made test kits to track the CCP virus.

Any law, intended to catch and ensnare the oligarch’s money, will have to run the gauntlet of those ‘legal practitioners’ and avoid ensnaring other unintended targets, e.g. those escaping from odious regimes like, the CCP in Hong Kong. Blair’s money laundering legislation, was a howling success in preventing such as an aged bedridden Aunt from opening an interest carrying account, but was easily circumvented, by those with less honourable designs.

We must spare a thought for the Putin apologist, Eddie Dempsey of the RMT, who brought London Underground to a halt. Apparently, he was keen to show support for his ‘friend’ Putin. Not withstanding the evidence, he frames Putin as the victim of Nato, via the ‘Stop The War’, loony club.

Sadly, it is a defect of our society, that we have been left open to widespread fraud.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ed P]

Russian oligarchs were among the main contributors to the Conservative party, and some say ‘Brexit’ as well. Dominic Cummings’ very strong Russian connections (Four years in Moscow) should also not be forgotten, while Jacob Rees Mogg’s large Somerset Capital investments in Russia must be looking pretty sick. 🙂

Cummings denies that Russia was a major contributor to the Brexit movement, but a weakening of the EU was certainly something they desired.

[Ed P]

Interesting Reuters article, that appears to be factual based on what we can see on the TV.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/

Truth or propaganda – who knows!

I suspect that it is true, and that Russia does not want the West to get a chance to assess their air force’s true strengths and weaknesses against determined opposition.

[Ed P]

The West’s actions against Russia have thrown Russia into China’s orbit. China certainly would have a willing home for both oil and gas, and it looks like China could also be a route for any embargoed goods as Russia has parked a lot of its overseas assets in China.

“Bank of Russia could hold US$80 billion of yuan debt, while the National Wealth Fund is estimated to own US$60 billion, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group
The total represents almost a quarter of foreign ownership in China’s domestic bond market, according to their estimates” source — the South China Morning Post.

[PlaneMan]

[Ed P]

Nice Mural PM!

For those with an open mind, Neal Ascherson has an Opinion piece in the Sunday Observer that chimes well with what I picked up when overseas and out of the usually Yankophile/Murkydog orbit of UK Newspapers.

It is difficult to pick up the opponents views of a situation, but it is important that we do, otherwise it will be very difficult to find a peaceful end to this horrendous ‘civil war’. If Putin ‘wins’ without this, it will just give rise to a situation that will fester for years.

A successful negotiation requires that both sides win and lose something they value. Maybe Zelenskiy should be encouraged to recognize Russia’s claims to the Russian speaking Donbas. As Russia has spent the last week bombing and shelling these same people they are not likely to be too happy about their ‘liberators’! Equally Russia should be encouraged to give up its aspirations for reclaiming Catherine the Great’s territories which are almost as valid as our possible claim to the Angevin Empire.

 

[PlaneMan]

Ed, it’s even better when seen for real.

Truly stunning piece of art.

Hard to find even though it has been featured in Welsh online papers.

Sums up the war perfectly.

[Ed P]

This horrible war drags on with no apparent end in sight. I did however hear a glimmer of hope on the radio today. Rather than the pro-Ukrainian reports that are normal Beeb fodder, this report came from the Donbas and featured a short interview with some women sheltering in their bunkers. Rather than condemning the Russians these women were blaming Zelensky for the war. I just wonder if we are being ‘prepared’ for a settlement in which the Donbas will be traded for peace, and give Putin his necessary ‘victory’ .

This war has changed the world. One aspect that I hope we learn is the asymmetrical nature of modern (non-nuclear) warfare. £2000 British NLAWS are devastating million dollar T72s, and the infantryman is king of the battlefield. Even in the air, cheap Turkish drones are providing the strike capabilities of US drones costing ten times as much, and one percent of the price of a strike aircraft that would not dare to go in the same airspace and would not be able to loiter for 20 hours waiting for a target.

[Ed P]

Correction that should be £20000 NLAWS

[Les.]

There is a lot of misunderstanding about this mess. Tamara comes from Odessa, and I have been following the events there over the past dozen years.

Let me start by saying that she regards herself as Russian, not Ukrainian. She obviously picks up news from the www, and no doubt favouring pro Russian sites.

10 years ago, there was a general feeling there that Ukraine should align itself with the EU, and move away from the Russian sphere of influence. Tamara thought that was a good idea in fact. But then the Tzar started having his say. The Pro Russian President (Janokovitch), having initially gone with the general view, was instructed by the Tzar to change it around, which he tried to do. Trouble followed, which culminated with Janokovitch cutting and running, and new elections followed. Since then, most Ukrainians, including everybody from Kiev became Nazis and Nationalists.

The Tzar’s propaganda continued as he became more and more of a total thief, well above any of his favourite  thieving oligarks.

One month before this crap actually started, Tamara refused to listen or watch the BBC news, exiting the living room a couple of minutes before the 1:00pm news started.

On the day it kicked off, she said to me “I am happy”!!!!!

Since then she has refused to speak a single word about it. (f I attempt to ask anything, she goes into explosive mode.

I can understand why some families there have difficulties when the two are from opposing  cultures.

As we all know, there are none as blind as those who do not want to see.

The sooner Tzar Bastard id decapitated, the better. One of those drones wants to go looking for him.

No doubt some of his Oligarks would like to stop him, but nobody seems ready to step up to the mark.

Long suffering Les.

[Ed P]

My sympathies Les. As you so vividly point out there are two sides to every argument, and normally a compromise would be reached that would be hated by both sides. I hope they find this solution soon.

Unfortunately I think that all this talk about war crimes is going to harm that process. A War Crime trial is never going to happen because of the Russian veto,  just like Blair, Straw and Bush were never indicted for their ‘Iraq regime change’ war crimes because of the US/UK veto. (For clarity I am not referring to any alleged behavior of any armed services, but only the illegal declaration of War).

 

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