Forumite Members › General Topics › Politics › UK › Is Labour now "#&cked" as was overheard yesterday during the TIG Launch?
- This topic has 63 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 7 years ago by
Ed P.
-
AuthorPosts
-
February 22, 2019 at 8:42 am #31035
Its only 6 if the 3 vote against the government. If they abstain its 3 of May’s majority lost.
@Ed
I think the next week is crunch time. As we are all aware we never really know who will actually do what until the Division Bells ring. Talk is cheap but defying the Whips can be very expensive indeed. If Cox gets his cod-piece (i.e. a codicil to weaken the backstop) that might change all dynamics. At the end of the day though I suspect it really comes down solely to the DUP who hold the shotgun to Tory rule. If they won’t budge and pull the trigger then a Vote of No Confidence will be called and topple everything. My bet is that if she suspects that likely then her favoured option we could be a snap GE. All in all there are so very many unpredictable events and permutations at present the mind boggles. Have there ever been more interesting times? I truly doubt it.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 22, 2019 at 2:21 pm #31038At 8.42am I wrote here, “….. All in all there are so very many unpredictable events and permutations at present the mind boggles”. Within minutes a new classification of defectors was born. Labour MP Ian Austin resigned the Labour whip and in doing so became the first of a whole new class of Independents; the Pro-Brexit Labour Leavers. I wonder how many more MPs will leave Labour but, like Austin, won’t join the TIG because it is an anti-Brexit bloc?
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 22, 2019 at 4:08 pm #31039Steven Woolfe is doing his best at the opposite end of the spectrum, “I intend to stand against Ms Soubry as a Conservative. The independence of this country now demands the most muscular force to protect it.”
Plonker. He didn’t win his last muscular force contest either.
February 22, 2019 at 4:29 pm #31040The lot of them should be stripped of their seats, and they should re run.
Can anyone explain why this isn’t happening. I don’t know the rules, but to me if you run with the power and party machine behind you, I can’t see how they are allowed to leave, and form a second party. One that now carries the same with as the lib dems.
February 22, 2019 at 4:57 pm #31041With the (paper) TIGGERS as with many MPs they are simply egomaniacs. They believe that their electorate voted for them more so than for a party. So they think it their right morally and not just legally to stay put. The reality is of course that few MPs win a seat personally. In almost all constituencies a parrot on a stick could win just as long as it was wearing the correct rosette. Not one of them stands the chance of winning on their own in the way Frank Field does. All of them are political pygmies while Frank is a giant of integrity.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 22, 2019 at 6:23 pm #31043Steve, you vote for the person not the party.
Whether that should change I’m not sure, but may be the Recall of MPs Act could be changed so the locals decide. However that may stop MPs voting in the national interest over local concerns – like the MPs in constituencies opposite to the Brexit wishes of their voters. We all know what a few gobshites can achieve with deselection.
It’s easy to judge when the numbers are small, what if this takes off into triple figure territory next week? Would that trigger the parties moving to the same stance as those now seen as rebels?
February 22, 2019 at 7:05 pm #31046Dave wrote: –
” Steve, you vote for the person not the party. ”
I could not agree more, that is how I have always voted. Party Politics is an abomination.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.February 22, 2019 at 8:18 pm #31048Its only 6 if the 3 vote against the government. If they abstain its 3 of May’s majority lost.
I appreciate that, but the calculation of a majority is done on the basis that Government can out-vote the rest of Parliament, and not on the basis of “If”, which means that 2 more defections puts Con, even with the DUP bought votes into a minority Government by the standard measure.
Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.
February 23, 2019 at 2:59 am #31053I understand that, and I’ve said before I vote for the person that I think will help my family, town, country in that order. I don’t care what tie they wear.
My issue here is they ran under red/blue banners, was funded by them, got the perks and the power of that machine behind them. Now they say goodbye but don’t want to give up the power.
I think it’s terrible. Now if they was an independent and moved the otherway to merge with a party so be it, bit it just seems to stink for me.
I’m not even taking what they stood for brexit, no brexit, whatever, I don’t care. For me they should have to rerun under their new banner, or as an independent. Go and win it on their own merit, or under their new management .
It makes a mockery of parliament. And it’s hardly looming good atm is it. No matter which side of brexit, red, blue, yellow, or green.
I think alot of the public see it the way I do to. I think if there isn’t laws/rules in place, and there can’t be, I think this should be looked at closely after brexit and the next ge is over.
Hopefully all the rats are out off office by then too.
Even if a GE was called before brexit was finalised, and they was running solely on ending brexit and staying in Europe, I’d not vote for them. And that is what I’ve been hoping for for a year.
Ive said I’d put party politics on hold for 4 years to vote for duce a party, but not that rabble. I don’t even know what they sand for except not being racist, but then being racist with 2 hours (which was funny). Apart form that, I have zero interest in them.
If you disagreed with your party so much, either stick around and help modernise the party, or sand down completely. It’s really peed me off.
February 23, 2019 at 7:54 am #31054Dave wrote: – ” Steve, you vote for the person not the party. ” I could not agree more, that is how I have always voted. Party Politics is an abomination.
Of course such a statement that we vote for the person not the party is technically correct. However, the broad church that can be found in most parties surely gives rise to moral dilemmas.
How does one vote if one has a local MP or potential MP who one admires for their personal integrity, competence, attitudes and beliefs but where that individual’s election would mean that a party whose cabinet or potential cabinet hold views are quite different and are entirely contrary to one’s own views and priorities? Is this not the dilemma that many currently face with Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell? I hear it often from folks that they are life-long Labour voters but can’t vote Labour while they are ‘in power’ in the party. Indeed I spoke to one friend from just down the road in Ealing last week. He has voted for Steve Pound consistently for twenty years as much personally as by party but says he won’t again while the aforementioned unholy trinity are in place.
Despite the above and in part as an aside; I also read something once that made me chuckle and ever since has been something which I believe to be in the main true. That was that most voters are so married to a party that they would vote for a parrot on a stick provided it was wearing the correct colour rosette. Come to think of it and looking around Parliament its not too difficult to conclude that in many constituencies that is exactly what happened last GE.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 23, 2019 at 10:33 am #31058I totally agree with you, however there’s not an easy cut and dried answer.
We are a representative democracy and trust our MP to represent our best interests. They may argue that that is best achieved by doing X, Y or Z. We’ve had the referendum on changing that and the public said no, they were happy with things as they are.
Our first West Country “Metro Mayor” – Tim Bowles (C) – campaigned on stopping a NIMBY development. Turns out he had no power to do so, it was all a carefully worded lie. People in Thornbury are incensed, should they be allowed to recall him?
Well I’m happy because WECA are about to spend £2 million around here to sort out a notorious traffic pinch point and they’ve got the Metro bus up and running. I now have a nearby bus that is a direct service into Bristol in 15 mins. Used to be a 15 min walk and an hour on the local goes everywhere bus.
You could argue that like Boris Bikes, my projects were happening anyway, nothing to do with him and that his campaign promises are the issue. You’d probably spend as much time arguing as it takes to get to the next election any way.
February 23, 2019 at 1:26 pm #31061I do believe in there being a solid and clear facility for an MP’s recall but also that the recall threshold should set high. In other words MPs could be recalled but only if there was overwhelmingly clear outrage at a level sufficient to motivate a very substantial percentage of that MP’s electorate to actually either go out and vote for recall or complete a postal vote. Setting a high threshold for recall would ensure it did not occur on a whim.
I would set the threshold to trigger a recall vote as being a simple petition by 15% of the seat’s electorate within a published one month window and the bar at that actual vote to require 25% of the seat’s electorate to vote for recall.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 23, 2019 at 2:09 pm #31062I don’t think the “By-election now, they’ve left the party they stood for” brigade have a leg to stand on. How many election promises/manifestos have had an about face done to them once the election is over, ( as per the Uni fees ) and how many MP’s have the opposite stance to their constituency referendum result?? Where do you stop/draw the line??
February 23, 2019 at 2:14 pm #31063For me labour are dead.
I would not touch them with a barge pole.
Seems all they do nower days is attrack those how want their arces wiping for them.
Absolute shambles of a party. TB and GB did a good job. Sadly GB did not notice the USA suruptuiosly exporting debt. Still the yanks wnot get away with it again.
February 23, 2019 at 2:33 pm #31069Oh, I forgot to explain why I have a problem with the often used argument that we live in ‘a representative democracy’. I consider it untrue and flawed. Let us step back and consider the evidence in a fashion as would normally be applied in a court of law.
Firstly there is the semantics argument re the meaning of the term ‘represent’. Does it mean that an MP’s vote is intended to represent the vote of the bloc of the electorate he represents (i.e. his/her personal vote in parliament being considered to be their vote) – or – does it mean s/he should represent the concensus views of his electorate (which is an entirely different thing). Therefore simply attempting to construe meaning from the term is not conclusive. Funnily enough the term ‘delegate’ (and we are always told do not live in such a democracy) is surely linguistically more accurate for the way MPs insist our democracy works. That is to say they are holding that we have delegated the responsibility for taking our decisions to them. Do you see what I mean?
However, interpretation of meaning in this instance by construction alone is not necessary because there is documentary evidence. The evidence that the electorate expects MPs to vote in accordance with their wishes rather than independently in their best interests, exists in that all parties and on occasion individual MPs, publish manifestos. There would be no need for such were it that we were merely choosing a person to take decisions on our behalf. Indeed an IQ test, professional qualifications and personal background would be more apt were that so. It is the very fact that manifesto’s are published that identifies that what people are voting for is a published intent rather than individual competencies. Plainly the vast majority vote for the published manifesto which is a statement of what that party or individual will do. I note manifestos usually say we “will” do this or that. Nothing suggests that such should not be the case. Indeed if such is not the case then all manifestos should logically end with something along the lines of – “unless we decide once elected to do something entirely different”. The manifestos including therefore no such ‘exit clause’ there is surely a clear social contract made.
I have long argued that manifestos logically should fall within the normal principles of Public and Administrative law as applies to the conduct of all Public Authorities (“PA”). Under those principles if the conduct of a PA or that PA’s publications give rise to a ‘legitimate expectation’ then a failure to deliver on that expectation is usually held to be unlawful.
If one really wanted to be harsh morally and in that MPs receive substantial pecuniary advantage (i.e. their salaries on election) to secure election on the promise of doing X and to then do Y comes damn close to securing monies by deception. Lightheartedly – Just imagine if a company employed one on a 5 year contract because one claimed to be able to program accounting software, and were employed/contracted to do such, if then on arrival you yourself decided instead to program for them a Dating App. How long would you last? Therefore one might even argue that MPs who act diametrically opposed to the manifesto commitments on which they were elected are in simple and clear breach of contract.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 23, 2019 at 9:59 pm #31076When I said I vote for the person, not the Party, I meant it, but I should have added that I always research, as much as possible, any potential candidates who want my vote. The problem with our democracy is that the majority of voters do not carry out even the simplest of checks: they simply put a cross against the name of the candidate who wears the rosette of the Party they have always voted for. It’s akin to eating out every night and having the same meal: it is the sad old British habit “We have always done it this way.”
Then there are the idiots who do not even vote, “Because it makes no difference.” Tell these morons that people suffered and died in thousands to win the vote and you get the blank look of those who have become dead above the eyebrows.
To those who criticise the admittedly imperfect form of democracy we do have, I have to ask, what are your alternatives? If the events proceed in one certain direction during the current political crisis*, you may get your answer: riots and anarchy, famine and shortages of everything.
*Anyone who thinks the current situation is not a crisis, actual or eventual, is not paying attention. IMO.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.February 24, 2019 at 7:39 am #31077We do not live in a democracy, All Governments treat manifestos to be ignored if ANYTHING changes. Often what is actually enacted bears little representation to the manifesto.
This whole Brexit shambles has upended the cosy little relationship between the Political classes and the masses. It has become clear to all that the election system produces incompetent blunderers of the May and Greyling class, or self interested ones like the Moggites and Left Wing extremists who just represent those who slip enough money into their political funds.
To get a system where we vote for the ability and integrity of the representative we need PR. If we stumble into the 40% hike in food prices of a Hard Brexit the masses will be baying for change of that nature.
February 24, 2019 at 8:25 am #31079I agree 100% that we need PR. I voted for such in the PR ref but as almost always people are resistant to change. Perhaps as you in effect suggest it may take ‘change’ to occur first before the system is forced to catch up. You will forgive me if I say that such may be some small conciliation or at least a silver plated lining if we do No Deal Brexit and the woes that you anticipate materialise.
Contrary to what the press and folks generally (not here though) are suggesting, I believe the threats of cabinet revolt which appear led by Amber Rudd actually make a No Deal Brexit more rather than less likely. Given that May brought her back into cabinet she must be utterly furious at Rudd and such can only heighten her resolve to Leave on 29 March no matter what. In the current climate I simply do not see the majority of MPs going along with the Letwin/Cooper amendment which would surely drive May to seriously consider a snap GE; despite the latest polls giving the Tories an 8 point lead. Perhaps due to Tory MPs’ fear of a GE, May will yet find herself this week drawing and pointing the very same gun that Major used re the EU, threatening ‘back me or its a GE’.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 24, 2019 at 12:24 pm #31087You forget one thing, Major wasn’t standing down as leader. If there is a GE she won’t be leading the party, there will have to be a very damaging leadership contest first. Her one aim has been to keep the party together, may be that’s too late any way.
As this whole bloody mess has been about internal Conservative infighting for the last 40 years, now may be the time for them to sort themselves out once and for all. If the ERG fight too hard there will be a split, it’s just a matter of how big.
Out there in the big wide world I can find as much love for the ERG as the hard left i.e. not a lot . One outcome could be a delay or even no Brexit at all, or a very swift return after the next GE.
The mood in the pub in Cornwall has changed, the agricultural industry has been looking at what happened in New Zealand and they are very, very concerned. The retired blowhards who have nothing to lose are still as belligerent as ever though, however they are all for the new UKIP even though the logic is they’ll let the Liberals back in by splitting the Tory vote. There’s always a touch of Trelawny about though.
I watched Gove snake tonguing his way through the food prices question by saying he was on the side of producers and consumers. When it was pointed out they were opposite he managed to argue both sides at the same time. Oh and all the Leave promises made were based on a deal not no deal. So if there is no deal don’t blame him if they don’t happen. But earlier he had argued the vote was a mandate for leaving with no deal.
The best fun was watching him not answer should Cabinet Ministers resign if they vote for Yvette Coopers amendment?
February 24, 2019 at 5:44 pm #31090I may not live in the UK, but the brexit outcome does affect us, so I am interested.
Consider that in one or two weeks time, TM (is able to) call(s) a GE. Parliament shuts down whilst the parties/candidates advertise themselves to the electorate.
But TM remains as PM, together with her cabinet (which she can sack from and appoint to as she feels fit).
Her choice, accept whatever she has in the bag (and now Europe start blinking in earnest) and on March 29th it just happens.
Both Labour and Tory party decide on new leader (quickly), and GE happens. Meanwhile TM has secured her brexit and reputation, with the next PM to bask in success of a good brexit, or suffer the sort of pain TM has suffered these recent months, if it is a bad one, without a reputation to look forward to, only regret.
Les.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.