Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[D-Dan]

This is the same Leo V that claimed we couldn’t use the airspace? As a man who comes from Irish nobility, I can happily say that Leo is an idjit.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[The VFM Addict]

I have three Irish neighbours two of whom go home regularly at least once a year on holidays and for weddings, etc.    Both share your view and surprisingly have told be before that a lot of their relatives back home think the same.   As one of them, who is always a great humorist said to me, “Varadkar is a qualified doctor.  So perhaps the fact that he gave up medicine and went into politics has saved one hell of a lot of lives”.    LOL

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[Ed P]

I do not refute the factual aspects of negotiating with the EU, however what the pro-Brexit politicians and others are overlooking are the simple dynamics of negotiation.

Negotiators (on BOTH sides) have to have a firm vision of what they are willing to seek as a compromise point. Neither the UK or the EU seem to have a tenable negotiating vision. That alone is worrying, but when you add in that each EU member state has to sign off on the final deal, the prospect of drifting into an ill-tempered  hard Brexit that hurts everyone for decades becomes highly likely.

As no-one voted for such an appalling situation, a second referendum  is the only way of reconciling a highly divided UK populace behind whatever is the final outcome.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

I do not refute the factual aspects of negotiating with the EU, however what the pro-Brexit politicians and others are overlooking are the simple dynamics of negotiation. Negotiators (on BOTH sides) have to have a firm vision of what they are willing to seek as a compromise point. Neither the UK or the EU seem to have a tenable negotiating vision. That alone is worrying, but when you add in that each EU member state has to sign off on the final deal, the prospect of drifting into an ill-tempered hard Brexit that hurts everyone for decades becomes highly likely. As no-one voted for such an appalling situation, a second referendum is the only way of reconciling a highly divided UK populace behind whatever is the final outcome.

I have difficulty accepting that you even believe that yourself?    A second referendum would surely cause even more division and probably only heightened animosity on both sides; adding the extra argument that democracy had been thwarted.

I do accept that there were almost as many people who voted stay as voted leave.  But how different is that from marginal seats during GE’s?   Should all those be re-run.

Ed, you know as well as I do that if Remain had won by even a single vote Cameron would have taken that as a mandate and stuck to it.   Remember – He made very clear that this was a once in a lifetime vote.  Indeed, it is that which is the common ground.  Both Remainers and Leavers voted knowing it was a once in a life time vote and that the result, no matter the margin was the result.

I also accept that what has been achieved is not what was on ‘the leave ticket’.    But as the negotiations have been run by a Remainer PM one can hardly blame the Leave side for that.   Who knows what the outcome would have been if we had played hard ball from the start rather than conceding this, that and the other, over and over.

I think there is more chance of another GE than another Ref.   But that won’t sort things out either because what Corbyn wants to do would not be accepted by the EU either.

I am an ardent Brexiteer, but even were I softer in my view I would still at this point decide that it has to be a hard Brexit because that it the only route by which the rifts can ever truly be healed in the UK.   Try it and once we know its effects in the medium term only then is there ever likely to be a true consensus.   I say again, because I believe it to be totally patent, al this has been caused by John Major, who committed us to such deep entanglement with the EU without our permission.  It was always a recipe for huge internal conflict sooner or later.  Had we vote in or out back then we would not be were we are today because the mandate would have been clear one way or the other.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Sorry for all the typos in the above post.   I would have corrected them but the edit button vanishes far too quickly.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

I do wonder what possible question could be used as the basis for a vote? There are many potential questions such a;

The EU have clearly shown they are a one size fits as it is political and financial union, not withstanding the previous vote do you now wish to be for ever bound into this rigid structure?

Yes

or

No’

Through to:

The EU believe that they are the best that can ever be and they will continue to obliterate all national differences, do you agree to forever bind the country into their laws and structures?

Yes

or

No.

I am sure others people would have other ideas, and that all would be equally contentious ,thoroughly divisive so unlikely to result in an harmonious out turn.

[Ed P]

“I do wonder what possible question could be used as the basis for a vote? ”

Three options with transferable vote, would be my suggestion..

a) Hard Brexit, with full short/medium term impacts on jobs/investment by region set out. i.e. no BOJO lies/dissembling.

b) A more realistic Canada CETA (The Irish border needs to be realistically sorted out even if that means direct negotiation with Eire)

c) Stay in EU

With respect to what gutless Cameron may or may not have done, an equally close result the other way would just have meant that Nigel Farage would be demanding another referendum. I’ll admit that a transferable vote probably means a move towards CETA but at least May would be in a stronger position to tell the odious Rees Mogg to go and play in his kitty-litter.

[The VFM Addict]

Remainers all too often say that a new referendum would yield a stronger mandate because the public are now better informed.  But in what way are they better informed?

From what I see all we have learnt is that if you put someone who doesn’t really want to Brexit in charge then you get a crap exit deal.   It simply does not follows that because May could not negotiate a good deal one was impossible to negotiate.   That’s like saying that because May didn’t get a grip of law and order while Home Secretary a grip in law and order can never be achieved by anyone.   Utter nonsense.

Let’s get real.  May is a manager and not a leader.  She relies on advisers and civil servants too much.  Just look what that did to the majority she inherited.    Is it hardly surprising that she’s ended up with either no deal or a crap deal given that she made exactly the same mistake again and had an even stauncher Remainer than her (Olly Robbins) handle the negotiations on her behalf..   Hands up those here who would appoint someone to negotiate their next salary increase who passionately believed that they should not get an increase.   No sane person would.

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[Ed P]

We are where we are.

If as many have said, May dare not use a threat of a General Election, then something has to be done to assuage all sides..

Politics is said to be the art of the possible, so although I agree May is a really poor strategist and  a terrible decision maker, she has to move from where she is now or drag the whole country to a medium term ruin.

A new referendum could achieve that and get some sort of broad political consensus.

In answer to what has changed, basically the intervening time has made it clear that Brexit does not achieve many of the positive aspects claimed at the referendum, and the negative economic impacts are now very clear. Staring over the cliff-edge of a jobless hard Brexit could have major implications for many voters.

[Richard]

Of dear the can of worms would get kicked over. If you go for (a) you would have to say

i) that the sclerotic EU with its mixture of failing southern Europe states is not a model for full employment.

ii) being stuck with the European court of injustice that forces the payment of our tax income to terrorists and other foreign criminals would have to continue.

iii) that there is no hard evidence either way about the impact on jobs or investment or anything else as all forecasts are little better and often worse than wild guesses, e.g. the reaction to and claimed result of of Trump’s recent toys out of the pram episode now ‘getting America moving’ claims.

b) The alleged Irish question is only a question at all because the odious EU wants to be bloody minded to show how little interest they have in negotiating anything that would be a departure from their straight jacket approach to everything. Other latest forays have included a proposed ban on pet passports and a potential block on pensions being paid to UK pensioners within the EU prison compound if their pension plan was an insurance based package not issued by an EU based outfit. Not only that you might you have to buy insurance to visit their compound and you might also be forced to buy it from one of their outfits. Those look like even more good reasons not to visit their forbidden territory.

c) With 52% suggesting that would be the ‘sod off and do one option’ I do not see that bringing out anything besides revolt. How many would be prepared to actually burn continental produce as the French did to ours a few years back is anyone’s guess, but it sounds like a good response. The only way it could be the slightest bit tolerable for many would be if we followed the French and others bad example and ignored all EU dictates, which the jobsworths club, also known as the (un)civil servants would never do.

The appalling crass options you set out should ensure great rallying clarion calls for someone with the gumption to stick it to the likes of the EU ‘No’ drama club; Rees Mogg might well be an such ideal leader. At least we might nail the spectre of ‘give the illegals and criminals everything they want Blairs‘ with his foreign holidays only (the UK countryside is too horrible to consider) and ‘make money for  the criminals’ manipulating the human wrongs laws wife.

There is one issue, since the initial goodbye notice has been served, technically a vote should only be to accept or reject the forced terms from the EU, or would this only be an advisory vote?

 

[Ed P]

The present Government has already produced an assessment of the regional economic impact of a hard Brexit link.

CETA gives nothing to the European Court of Justice. Human misrights law has nothing to do with the EU. That was TBLiar’s gift to the nation.

Both Eire and the UK have a common objective over a borderless Ireland. I think we are at the point where Eire has to be made aware that failure to sort out an acceptable agreement will result in that objective not being met and risk plunging the north and south of Ireland into civil conflict.

If we have a second referendum the sole purpose will be the same as the original referendum — to stop the civil war in the Conservative Party. Things have however reached the stage where medium term negative impacts on the nation at large are very likely if something is not done.

[Spedley]

My prediction is that over the next 2-3 months Brexit will start to form a plan – a bad one.  It will get partially ratified by the EU but with many holes.  The Tory party will start to crumble.  Corbyn will hit the Brexit problem home and cause a general election where he will offer a referendum on the deal as part of his campaign.  Corbyn will win a significant majority – perhaps one of the largest ever.  Brexit will be ended.  I will be happy! 🙂

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[Richard]

Spedley wrote:

My prediction is that over the next 2-3 months Brexit will start to form a plan – a bad one. It will get partially ratified by the EU but with many holes. The Tory party will start to crumble. Corbyn will hit the Brexit problem home and cause a general election where he will offer a referendum on the deal as part of his campaign. Corbyn will win a significant majority – perhaps one of the largest ever. Brexit will be ended. I will be happy! ?

That should that happen it would be a good enough reason to bring back assassination squads if the arch anti Semitic zealot gets anywhere near to where he can cause real damage. As bigots go, so he should – ASAP. While murder is normally illegal, his lot are oh-so-keen to ignore any law with which they do not agree, so that would be a good place to start. Still hopefully there are not enough really silly people to vote for his made destruction squad, though with education the way it is in some areas noting is certain. Might be as well to bury anything valuable at a safe depth.

PS he hates the EU with an abiding hate, so him and the EU would be a bunfight that sounds like a recipe made in somewhere other than heaven.

[Ed P]

Equating anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism is unfortunately a popular cheap trick. However I do not want to get into the debate wrt Zionism and its impacts on Middle East peace I’ll leave that to a leading Jewish spokesman on Judaism.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Just to get one thing straight, even John Major was smart enough to get us an opt out clause from the European human rights act but he did sign us up to the European court of justice. One of the first things Mr Blah did once elected was to opt us right back in. We opted out in the first place because the wording of the act made it clear that it was open to abuse from the very start.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

One of my many reasons for voting to leave was to get rid of that act. Once you sign up to anything with the EU it is final with no take backs allowed. The only get out clause is number 50 so that one it had to be.

[The VFM Addict]

Aren’t we just back where we always were?  Remainers saying it will be disaster and Leavers saying no it won’t.   The truth is that there is no hard data either way.  We’ve been here before with disaster being forecast if we didn’t join the Euro.  We were told that all big corporates would leave the UK because they needed to be inside the Eurozone.  It didn’t happen did it.

Returning to the divisions in the UK, they will fester further until they cause an even greater infection unless the question of whether Brexit does or doesn’t work is answered finally and conclusively by the reality of a true Brexit not a Brino.   To think otherwise is to ignore the reality which is that there is no other way to answer the question conclusively.  Is there?

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[Spedley]

You may discount my view because I’m a remainer but I just can’t see any real benefit from Brexit.  From human rights to sovereignty to trade, I just can’t see anything that will make any tangible difference to mine or most other peoples lives.
Brexit on the other hand is looming large cloud of great uncertainty.  Are we going to be so much better off … highly unlikely.  Is it going to be worth the hardship in the long term … unlikely.  Is it possible it could really turn out bad … yes.

It just doesn’t make sense?

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[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Everyone is entitled to an opinion based on their situation and experience Spedly. It just so happens that I am HUGELY affected by the human rights act because the scumbags it allows to stay tend to come and live next to me in Wembley.

[The VFM Addict]

Spedley wrote:

You may discount my view because I’m a remainer but I just can’t see any real benefit from Brexit. From human rights to sovereignty to trade, I just can’t see anything that will make any tangible difference to mine or most other peoples lives. Brexit on the other hand is looming large cloud of great uncertainty. Are we going to be so much better off … highly unlikely. Is it going to be worth the hardship in the long term … unlikely. Is it possible it could really turn out bad … yes. It just doesn’t make sense?

Can I paraphrase much of last paragraph.   The EU is a looming large cloud of uncertainty.   Where is it heading?   Especially now that most votes are by qualified majority.   Will it be heading in a direction that favours our interests which are not the same as those of the French, the Germans or the Eastern Europeans?   If we stay in now thereby making it clear that we will never leave could we be taken for granted and abused?    Are we going to be better off where the EU ends up?   Probably not because the other members best interests are no always ours.   Take a look at Greece to see how that works.   Personally, I don’t like boarding trains that I have no idea of where they are heading and where I have next to zero control over it.

Let me put the ball in your court.  Tell us where the EU is heading; what its future rules will be; whether members will be forced to join the Euro; whether members will eventually be obliged to join the EU Army?   Just explain to me that you are certain what you are voting for by explaining exactly what it is.    Because as I currently see it membership of the EU is every bit as much taking a leap in the dark as is Brexit.  Indeed more so because now we have triggered Art 50, if we back out we flag that we are weak.

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