Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

Unless the mendacious BoJo succeeds in cobbling together a deal with the EU and Parliament his only option (other than breaking his word yet again) is to resign. The EU has stated that they will only deal with a PM, in that situation I CAN see a Government of National Unity pledged to sort out Brexit then call an election. Corbyn would be unacceptable as a leader, but someone such as Ken Clarke could lead it.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Unless the mendacious BoJo succeeds in cobbling together a deal with the EU and Parliament his only option (other than breaking his word yet again) is to resign. The EU has stated that they will only deal with a PM, in that situation I CAN see a Government of National Unity pledged to sort out Brexit then call an election. Corbyn would be unacceptable as a leader, but someone such as Ken Clarke could lead it.

As I said before, unless there’s ‘an ace in the hole’ that no-one has thought of.  Until then masquerade as if there’s no option so no-one looks for it and blocks it.    The N.I. matter of the last 24 hours looks just like that to me.   Sources ‘leak’ that the DUP are ready for an in-part N.I. only backstop but then Foster is adamant that is not the case.   Classic magician’s misdirection.    QUICK LOOK OVER THERE while I work the trick over here.   I’m not sure that even the whole cabinet knows what the ‘ace in the hole’ is.   But I think Javid does.   This is being kept close to the chest so there are no leaks.    After this N.I. misdirection I am more certain than ever that there is one.   Only time will tell.   I could be totally wrong of course but my gut feeling is very strong that I am not.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

IF the untrustworthy BoJo has got an Ace why wait to reveal it? He cannot afford to just spring an outrageous Ace on either the EU or Parliament. If it is something that no-one has previously mooted then he will need time to sell it. Lets face it, he has proven that he is both mendacious and untrustworthy, so he is going to have to do a lot of convincing before anyone will accept his words.

[Dave Rice]

And he stood up at the DUP conference and said he wouldn’t do it. But then he said the same about Heathrow.

The Scotland – NI bridge looks like being the latest bridge project (garden and Dover straits). What is it about bridges and BoJo?

So basically BoJo is back to TM’s plan with what the EU wanted from day one on the backstop? And that will get through? Really? Also I understand Stormont has to OK it and that isn’t up and running. If we impose direct rule that will queer the pitch too.

Not much of an Ace.

EDIT for all this yacking on about fishing I see the required legislation is one of bills that’s died with the proroguing of Parliament. And so has the Trade Bill that would have given the UK the powers to implement new trade deals and set up a Trades Remedies Authority. Never mind Domestic Abuse (now OK for a knighthood candidate) and Animal Cruelty. What a brave new world awaits us.

[Ed P]

The Guardian covers the possibility of the DUP being manoeuvred into a legal arrangement for Ulster that differs from the mendacious BoJo’s previous commitment to them. see today’s Guardian

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

IF the untrustworthy BoJo has got an Ace why wait to reveal it? He cannot afford to just spring an outrageous Ace on either the EU or Parliament. If it is something that no-one has previously mooted then he will need time to sell it. Lets face it, he has proven that he is both mendacious and untrustworthy, so he is going to have to do a lot of convincing before anyone will accept his words.

I though I had made that clear.   It may be something that could be blocked by new legislation if the Remain parliament had time to again grab control and legislate.   I’m not sure either that it would be something that needed to be sold to anyone in Westminster or the EU.   More likely a legal loophole that no-one has yet spotted.    I expect the masquerade of going for a deal to continue a little longer – setting up the ‘Well I tried’ defence before going nuclear.    I note that currently somewhat different ‘leaks’ are being fed to the Guardian and Telegraph they can’t both be right.

Of one thing I am sure and that is that both BoJo and Cummings know that if N.I. is left adrift; if we don’t exit on 31 October of if a rehashed May’s WA is tried then TBP will eat the Tories alive come the next GE not least because they’ll have fewer canvassers as Tory activists revolt.   I just don’t see Boris wanting to go down in history as the one who destroyed the Tories.   Something is surely afoot.    I’ve been convinced of that since they suddenly dropped the Filibustering in the Lords.   No reason to have done so unless they spotted that the that legislation was fatally flawed in some way.   If they did spot something then it would indeed make total sense to let it pass because as the old maxim goes never interrupt one’s opponents when they are making an error.   But I say again I could be reading all the signs wrong.   Only time will tell.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

Apparently they left their own lawyers in the dark over Proroguing and may about to pay the legal price. They’re already reaping the moral one. BoJo really is getting a hard time every opportunity the public get.

I don’t think there is a master plan any more. There may have been but it’s not working as expected. I don’t think many of the public see him as their champion and Parliament is firmly ganged up in him including his own side. TBP are waiting.

I don’t thing there is any ace, the only hope he has is a deal and I just can’t see it happening. Even if the DUP agree with BoJo Dublin will not give them the veto and Sinn Fein will probably not reopen Stormont anyway. Of course that will play well in the it’s not me it’s them narrative.

[Bob Williams]

Besides worry about the future for the next generation, I have great concerns about medicines. A No Deal Brexit is likely to result in shortages, however temporary these may be, is irrelevant to those of us whose lives depend upon it. Example: my stoma pouches are manufactured in Denmark and are imported into a Peterborough warehouse under the”Just in Time” usage. These are not items that have an alternative and they are absolutely necessary every day of my life. Another case where Brexit was not thought through.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Bob, even in the ‘best case’ of a No deal, there will be a major disruption. For every day of port delays you can calculate roughly a ten percent shortage in long-haul road transportation. This of course translates directly into shortages across the board.

During my career I ran many simulation studies on road and port congestion. As a rule of thumb congestion starts when the infrastructure is loaded to more than 70% and at 90+% it becomes nearly unworkable.

The worst case Brexit scenario results in roughly a 20% shortage in long haul road transport which will translate directly into one hell of a grim Christmas for most people with the biggest impacts on the poor and sick.

[Bob Williams]

Sobering thoughts Ed. I intend to order prescriptions from my surgery website as soon as the “cannot order before” date has gone. Which in the case of my stoma pouches, is usually whilst I still have plenty. I will do the same with two medicines which are actually keeping me alive over the long term. The other, much more sobering scenario is that, without a constant supply of pouches, I would have to consider topping myself. Seriously.

Having in the past planned routes, vehicle packages and times for two large REME workshop moves, I understand your simulations. One breakdown or RTC can cause mayhem, adding to the effect of port delays. One move (and return after 6 months) was to take an Armoured Workshop, with an AAC contingent, from Wiltshire to Liverpool and across the Irish Sea to Belfast. It went off without a hitch but left me sleepless for a couple of nights. Another involved an aircraft Workshop from North Germany to the southernmost part of Bavaria, which took place every year in May. That turned into a nightmare when the driver of a huge POL* truck blew his mind out and reversed downhill into several other vehicles. I still think of that as the most hectic and scary day of my 12 years’ service. It did provide me with a promotion though.

*Petrol, Oil, Lubricants. The truck carried gallons of diesel, Lube oils and petrol, for refuels. How we did not have a huge fire, deaths and injuries, is a miracle. The driver was shipped off to a military hospital in the UK and we never saw or heard of him again.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Tippon]

Bob Williams wrote:

A No Deal Brexit is likely to result in shortages

It’s already happening. I’m a member of a Vasculitis support group on Facebook, and several members have had trouble getting their meds and been told that it’s a direct result of Brexit. Apparently companies are not renewing or prioritising their part of the delivery chain to the UK as there’s so much uncertainty, and they’re not willing to commit to anything 🙁

[Ed P]

“Half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production shutdown by coordinated drone attack”

Nothing to do with Brexit, but who will remember that when we face fuel price hikes and petrol shortages just about when the lead-in to Brexit starts.

[Ed P]

Typical US Democrat’s view of the mendacious Bojo’s antics. link

To paraphrase “Absolute wanker!”

[The VFM Addict]

How NOT to make friends and influence people.  Amazing !!!

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Thinking of yesterday’s fun-fest in Luxembourg I started to wonder why their President was so rabidly a Europhile.   Then I remembered.    Luxembourg is the biggest per capita recipient of EU funds receiving over twice as much as any country that surrounds it.   But that only got me wondering even more.

Luxembourg is the second richest country in the world by GDP/Capita.    With a GDP per capita greater than all of the middle east oil states other that Qatar.   It astoundingly cash rich per head of population.  So why does it receive so much EU funding?   Indeed, over 5 times as much EU funding per capita as does the very poor EU state which is Bulgaria.

Remind me again what nationality is Junker?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

On a slightly lighter note (re the mendacious BoJo found by Scottish Court to have been lying/misleading to the Queen), I found this thread in DigitalSpy quite entertaining.

[Ed P]

Somehow the DigitalSpy link went missing:

link

[Bob Williams]

BoJo renounced US citizenship in 2016:   https://tinyurl.com/haev825

More’s the pity, perhaps he could have been stripped of UK citizenship and sent back to face a big US tax bill, as in the above link.

Damn it, do it anyway.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

The link I eventually gave explains why we cannot strip BoJo of his citizenship but then goes on to explore setting up an uninhabited island somewhere declaring it a republic, and giving him citizenship of that before we revoke his UK citizenship.

However I REALLY liked the post on the second page:

“Well, the elderly are always being warned about being conned by dodgy characters

Perhaps the Queen should have been more careful about who she let into the Palace”

 

[The VFM Addict]

Given Cameron’s revelations it seems PM’s do at times tell HM what they are really up to.   There is of course no evidence whatsoever that BoJo lied to the Queen.   There were no witnesses.   He may have been quite open stating that in his opinion the route he wanted to travel was in the public interest.    Hence we can never know whether he lied to HM or not.   No-one can even know on the balance of probability; unless HM speaks out in full which it is very unlikely that she will.    I do note though that the palace has stated it is displeased with Cameron’s revelations but not a word re BoJo.    One might think that if BoJo did blatantly lie to her then similar ‘noises’ might be heard in order to protect her good name.

The above said, I concede readily that it remains that he may have lied to Parliament or been economical with the truth giving only one of his two reasons (perhaps even only the lesser one) as to why he was proroguing.

Of course PM’s, as are Chancellors, are to a degree allowed to be economical with the truth in the open arena that is Parliament, where they believe it to be vital in the public interest to do so (e.g. War, the Economy, etc.).    This executive authority is possibly arguable in this case on the ‘No threat-No better deal offered by the EU’ rational.    The proroguing of course did not throttle Parliament entirely as the Benn Bill proves and there will also be time once it re-opens for Parliament to act.   All the proroguing did in reality was to restrict time somewhat thereby racking up the ‘possibility’ of No Deal occurring and thereby apply some extra pressure on the EU.    It was therefore, I would argue a relatively balanced option both applying additional necessary pressure to the EU but still leaving parliament sufficient time to act if it desired.

This is a tack I myself would have argued with the SC as it is viable but it seems the government did not use it; although some arguments tendered by it hint, albeit remotely,  at such.

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

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