Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

Recognise any of these faces?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Bob Williams]

I have visited this Topic occasionally without actually commenting, because IMHO the debate here has become circular. Now I feel the need to express my thoughts.

For me, the coach horses are out of control, since an idiot unelected by the British people, was given the reins.

Which other American-born national leader of a (supposed) democracy, fires or causes resignations amongst those he appointed to office when they do not agree with him, then ignores any other political and citizen voices in his own country which also contradict him?

“They call him Britain’s Trump” says the orange PoTUS.

He was correct. especially if you spell ‘trump’ without an upper case first letter and regard it as embarrassing, socially unacceptable, flatulence.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

You may be right.   But do not those who have fought to thwart the original “once in a life time decision”, as we were told the referendum would be, carry major responsibility for causing things to drag on such that BoJo could grasp the reins.    Remember-  We should have been out at the end of March 2019.   In which case there would have been no growth in The Brexit Party and BoJo would have had no shot at becoming PM.   The moral surely is that Democracy only ever works when there is ‘losers consent’ without such anarchy follows – and has!

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[Dave Rice]

Perhaps if the winners had made some attempt to bring along the losers it would all be over a long time ago.

Perhaps if the purist winners hadn’t veto’d any chance of leaving on anything but their terms it would all be over long ago.

I said a while ago that the reasonable people would find their voice and the more hard line the crackpot end of the leavers got the more their opposition would dig their heels in. Well that’s exactly what’s happened hasn’t it?

Even now the more irresponsible Johnson gets the more forces combine to stop him. All he can do now is break the law, I don’t think even he dare try that. Compromise is what’s required, always has been, always will be.

I truly think the Tories have now blown it and taken their own party with it by way of the Brexit Party at one end, the Libs at the other and the SNP in Scotland. Labour will see some loses in leave areas but not enough. The hung parliament will swing towards Remain and the only hope Brexiteers will have is a referendum and a vote for a more Norway style deal negotiated by Corbyn.

This was always the Brexiteers to lose. It helps if you have a plan, don’t box yourself in with impossible demands and don’t fight your own side more than your opponents. But of course it will all be someone else’s fault won’t it?

[dwynnehugh]

If I understand it correctly all the ‘hoo-haa’ in Westminster these last few weeks has made our bargaining power almost zero!!

The more you meet people the more you understand why Noah took animals instead of humans

[Ed P]

The EU made it perfectly plain that they were not impressed by a Hard Brexit as it will damage the UK far more than them – we lose ALL our existing trade deals via the EU plus of course the EU as well. It MIGHT(?) be better in 5 or 7 years, but that is a long time to go without a car industry and livestock farmers.

I was going to refrain from comment as these are the same old arguments against a Hard Brexit, but what has changed is the possible elimination of a lying PM dragging us into a future Yank/Isreali inspired Middle East war.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

…… Perhaps if the purist winners hadn’t veto’d any chance of leaving on anything but their terms it would all be over long ago. ……..

IIRC it wasn’t the “purists”, ERG or whatever you want to call such that veto’d May’s WA as you seem to imply it was a majority of the house, multiple times.

@Ed,

Don’t worry if Corbyn gets in and given those he’s repeatedly called ‘friends’ we won’t miss out on the Middle East party that’s brewing we will simply be batting for the other side.

Jokes aside I’d say all that the last week has meant is that provided a pact is reached with TBP then the election in November will result in a massive majority for BoJo.   ALL polling indicates this.   The Labour heartlands of the North and Wales are no longer Labour.     Remainers are moving to the LibDems and Leavers are moving to the TBP or Tories.    I think that the likes of Grieve, etc., have only served to play into the hands of BoJo and TBP.    My bet would be that BoJo writes the letter and adds a second of his own which the surrender law does not prevent him from writing.    “Many thanks in advance for granting an extension if you do but it won’t be needed past November because by then I will have a majority for No Deal.” and “While we stay in I will not be appointing a Commisioner hence under the EU law the EU Commission will not be legally constituted and cannot progress any business while we remain.”    A sort of political judo throw using the EU’s own weight against itself.

 

 

 

 

 

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[Ed P]

If the psudoAmerican BoJo pursues a Hard Brexit, and that comes to pass I just cannot see anyone cheering the chaos and job losses that will result. As said before, in that eventuality Bojo will forever be known as the Grinch who stole Christmas 2019, and certainly not an election winner.

He cannot now get his election before October 31st unless the Government declares it has no confidence in itself and it would have to somehow pass such a motion before October 17 as by law they have to give a coalition of opposition parties 14 days to form a Government. I forecast VERY VERY long parliamentary debates on such a motion!

If however he does succeed in negotiating the deal with the EU that he claimed he could, and gets it through Parliament then good luck to him.

[Dave Rice]

He will not a write second letter as that has already been shown to be breaking that law. This is all bluff and bluster to keep the flame alight and stop voter defections to TBP. He knows he will have to do it and has already started the BoJo fights Pariament for the will of the people narrative.

Polls? I thought we’d all learned that lesson by now. Another hung Parliament is probably the result of any election, the question is which block will be bigger, because this is all Leave or Remain not left and right.

My prediction is that there will not be a pact between the Tories and TBP. That will signal that the Tories basically are the TBP and Johnson will have to sell a No Deal Brexit to the public. Not hint at it, actively promote it. Explain how No Deal will be better for the country than any deal and campaign on that basis. Good luck with that.

Goodbye moderate Tory voters (and probably MPs) to the Lib Dems, the West Country will turn Yellow. The cities will turn redder than they are. Scotland will be heavily SNP and we’ll be saying goodbye to them within 5 years. What will happen to the Tory South East? probably some Lib Dem gains. The Leave Labour areas will probably go TBP, I can’t see them voting for the Rees-Mogg party, but it won’t be nearly enough.

If there is no pact the same sort of thing will happen as the Leave vote gets split but not as heavy losses for the Conservatives who can keep up the “we really want a deal, honest” narrative in the South and let TBP take the Labour Leave areas. They can also portray the TBP as No Deal extremists with no plan.

Any Leave pact will happen after the election, not before. BoJo can throw his hands in the air and say, well this is the only way we can deliver the will of the people. Not my fault, we had a deal almost there, blame them when the brown stuff hits the fan.

What may happen is a pact between the Remain sides such as we saw in Brecon, but Labour will have to wake up and smell the coffee. I don’t think Corbyn will.

[The VFM Addict]

I don’t disagree with much of what you say, Dave.

As regards a ‘second letter’ it is perhaps a mute point because nothing prevents BoJo from making the same points which I suggested he could make in a second letter in person with the EU and member states at the 17 October summit.   One way or the other the message can still arrive loud and clear.

Your analysis of how an election vote will go is not hugely different from my opinion.    I simply cannot see though that the Tories will not remain the largest party in Westminster given that Labour will surely lose in its Welsh and Noth East Heartlands so BoJo will get first shot at forming a government post a GE.   I would suspect that the Tories plus TBP and possibly plus also the DUP will be able to constitute a majority.    Labour loses to the Lib Dems and to the TBP will surely make that a racing certainty.

On a very different tack, I am very sensitive to the difference between bluster and genuine confidence.   There is something about BoJo’s words when he says he will not ask for an extension which embodies the latter.   I am also aware of Javid’s words when interviewed on TV last Sunday.   He was pretty clear that it was lawfully possible to circumvent the surrender bill but that he would not say how because to do so would be foolish.   I’m sure he is right.   Reveal it and the Remainers might well create legislation to thwart it.   So if there is still a route to lawful circumvention then we are unlikely to know what it is until 17 or 19 October.   Added to all these clues is the sudden decision not to Filibuster the surrender bill in the Lords.  It was if somewhere a ‘light bulb’ had suddenly flashed on.  Why did they concede passage through the Lords so suddenly and out of the blue when minutes before filibustering was the plan and was quite workable?    There’s a ‘card in the hole’  somewhere here for sure.   Something everyone is missing.    I’ve no idea what it is but as with a ‘Black Holes’ in space its all that’s going on around them that tells you that they are there even though you can’t see them.    Perhaps we’ll get more clues (not what the route to circumvention is but that such exists) at the Tory party conference.    I’ll hazard a guess that the likes of Grieve etc., are also likely to be running around thinking – We’re surely missing something here what is it?

Finally, Jo Swinson, has taken another chance at a big bite out of Labour votes by declaring the LibDems will campaign on a Revoke Art50 ticket.   So that will really drain Remainers from Labour while TBP to drain Leavers.   No doubts in my mind that Labour, the only party after the Tories with a hope in hell of being the largest party, will be savaged at the next GE.    And I mean hugely savaged.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[JayCeeDee]

 

I’ve been saying for years now that I, as a Labour voter, have been dis-enfranchised by JC and his Momentum cronies. I will not vote for him/them. They represent the worst of what we thought had been put behind us with the advent of New Labour.

If nothing else, Tony Blair was both electable, and re-electable. Had he kept our nose out of Iraq ( and his out of Bush’s backside )  things could have been so different.

Since his demise as PM, it opened the door to Momentum, and look where that has got us.

[Dave Rice]

I agree that Labour will be savaged but I think you under estimate what will happen to the Tories too. I see denial in every still die-hard Tory I speak to. I also hear the latest sound bites like “surrender bill” time and time again, you can pretty much predict what will be said in spite of any evidence to the contrary – like anyone is actually negotiating. Turning up in Eire wasn’t negotiating, nor were visits to Berlin, Paris and the G7, but it’s trotted out as such. Just parroting the leave propaganda machine.

I seriously doubt there’s a legal way around the bill short of imploding Parliament with enough time left if they can win a GE. Whatever the strategy is it’s a high risk one, do or die, unless they get a deal they can get through. I’ve even heard the we’ll piss of the EU theory again.

Time will tell, there’s plenty of drama left to come.

Personally I sincerely hope he does get a deal then we can move on and get the future sorted, because when all is said and done this isn’t the end game! It’s the just the end of the beginning. I truly cannot understand what all the hard line Brexiteer shenanigans is about. Get out with little fuss to a transition then get the final deal you want, what’s the problem?

But No Deal? No way and I’ll fight tooth and nail to stop that scenario.

And don’t give me any crap about the backstop. It’s temporary – get the deal done and it’s gone. If it wasn’t there it’d be something else, indeed I believe the ERG / TBP have already said so.

I’ve seen some wonderful conspiracy theories on FB but they’re so badly written I’m amazed anybody could possibly believe a word. I think it’s because some people want them to be true.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

…….. And don’t give me any crap about the backstop. It’s temporary – get the deal done and it’s gone.  ……………..

But Dave that is the very crux of the matter.    With the backstop ‘a gun to our heads’ there is no prospect of getting a deal which is equitable to both sides.    Macron stated such a while ago that if he did not get the fishing access he wants to our waters there would be no deal.    With the backstop still remaining an option, and with such not only being no skin off the EU’s nose if activated but actually advantageous to them, there is no imperative whatsoever on the EU until they get exactly what they want and sod our needs.

I’m sorry Dave but I cannot for one moment believe you would ever go to a client and say I’ll accept any deal you desire because I’m not prepared to walk away.    If that is truly your position I know a few folks who would love CCTV systems in their warehouses for £5.10p.    If you are not prepared to walk away you get slaughtered, don’t you?    The backstop makes an equally equitable deal utterly impossible to ever negotiate.    Without it then possibly indeed probably a mutually beneficial deal would be possible.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Who said that trade deals are equitable? Try negotiating with a 600lb gorilla and see who comes off worse!

Negotiations with the EU are not going to be easy, especially with an Irishman (Paul Hogan) who dislikes Johnson. see Politico comment

Rather than the ‘end of the beginning’ as Dave puts it this could well be the beginning of the end of the Union of the UK, especially when each of the smaller bodies sees their favourite Brexit items being negotiated away ‘for the greater good (of the Conservative party)’ e,g. Cornish fish, Welsh lamb, Scottish Fish etc. Nationalism will be rife.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

……. Rather than the ‘end of the beginning’ as Dave puts it this could well be the beginning of the end of the Union of the UK, especially when each of the smaller bodies sees their favourite Brexit items being negotiated away ‘for the greater good (of the Conservative party)’ e,g. Cornish fish, Welsh lamb, Scottish Fish etc. Nationalism will be rife.

The most compelling argument I have ever read from you as to why as to why ‘No Deal’ makes most sense.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I must admit to be totally out of the brexit loop, I lost all interest in it. Sort of wake me up when it’s over..

However I thought this week, parliament just blocked any chance of a no deal brexit? Am I wrong on that?

I don’t care what happens anymore, I just want it over. So we can move on.

[Dave Rice]

But in the end there will be a deal. If not now on the transition then later because we cannot possibly thrive on WTO rules.

This is what I just don’t understand from Brexiteers, this transition agreement is being touted as the be all and end all, it isn’t. It’s a smooth transition from exiting from an organistaion we have been entangled with for 40 years.

It cannot be described as a business deal in the way you have because we aren’t touting for new business. If I am dealing with a contract that provides a huge chunk of my income the other side knows that my walking away is an act of gross self harm. Look at how BAE deal with their IT contractors if you want an example of how this sort of business deal works. The threat of walking away in these circumstances is just not the act of a sane person, it is always a bluff. But if I say I want unreasonable (in their eyes) clauses out in the contract or I’m going, what do you think they will say?

So let’s not have any more of this business deal nonsense, it isn’t a business deal and never will be. It’s a political deal and involves far more than just trade. I don’t have reciprocal medical cover with any of my customers nor any dependent supply chains.

When there are negotiations for the final deal, as Trump says everything is on the table. By that time we won’t have a Welsh lamb industry, the Japanese at the most optimistic estimate can only take 3% of the output.

There will be no cheap food from the Commonwealth, they have already said so. When we dumped them they found new local markets and that consumes all their output. As Steve once asked, what do they make that we want to buy that’s better than the current sources?

The propping up of Cornwall and other currently EU funded deprived areas will have to be funded from Westminster or left to wither. All at the time when Government funds will be tight. Of course Westminster will be blamed and rightly so.

[Ed P]

Yet another thorn up BoJo’s nether end. The Scottish equivalent of a Supreme Court has declared prorogation unlawful. However, they have not ruled a recommencement of Parliament ahead of the London Supreme Court meeting on Tuesday next. Beeb link

May had it easy compared with Johnson! 😂

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Yet another thorn up BoJo’s nether end. The Scottish equivalent of a Supreme Court has declared prorogation unlawful. However, they have not ruled a recommencement of Parliament ahead of the London Supreme Court meeting on Tuesday next. Beeb link May had it easy compared with Johnson!

Not technically correct as regards Supreme Court.   The Scottish Court ranks equivalent to the English High Court and Court of Appeal Civil.   The UK Supreme Court (previously the Law Lords of the House of Lords) sits above all other UK courts.

However, the Scottish ruling hinges on perceptions.   The Scottish judges ruled that there was no concrete evidence that the prorogation was for improper purpose but that from the evidence that was available such might be concluded.  (A rather wooly judgement at the very least.)    However, we have to wait and see what the Supreme Courts decision is.    My opinion for what it is worth is that the Scottish Judges were fully entitled to reach such a decision.   The burden in judicial review, it being a civil matter, is indeed the balance of probability.    That said I am not convinced that the UK Supreme Court will desire to rule against the UK government using merely the civil burden.    I have not yet searched but I would hazard a guess that past HoL or SC rulings may well set precedent that for government decisions to be interfered with requires somewhat more than that the civil burden be carried.

I’m at the High Court (Royal Courts of Justice on the Strand) on 8 October acting as litigant in person in a Judicial Review Renewal Hearing.   Thank god the SC does not sit there and sits in the Middlesex Guildhall opposite Parliament.   Otherwise the RCJ might have been media bedlam.   I’m mildly nervous anyway.  I’ve acted for myself before in civil matters at county court and always got the better of otherside’s solicitors winning all cases.   But this time I’ll be up against a barrister or worse still possibly ‘silk’.   The sole edge I have is that is that I know all 1000+ pages of the evidence inside out and the issues of law are not complex.     So one might say that my chances to wrong foot the defendant’s case are multiple whereas the defendant’s chances of wrong footing mine are limited.    Still, I love a challenge.   So either way it will be fun (I hope) albeit very expensive fun if I lose.

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

Well there will be no TBP and Tory alliance, but that could all change as there is still a way to go. But as I said before I doubt it will ever happen or there will be no point in having a Conservative Party.

I think the timing of the publication of (almost all) the Yellowhammer documents and that announcement was no accident. It points to No Dealers being set up as extremists in one direction – we’ll never willingly go there – and the EU being set up as the protagonists if we end up there. It’s still the May strategy of trying to play one side off against the other and thinking you’re seen as the reasonable one. Didn’t work then, won’t work now.

Proroguing of Parliament hasn’t had the desired effect of shutting everyone else up. It’s just made them more determined to fight tooth and nail. Boris’s big announcement of the T21 contracts drowned out by accusations of his telling fibs to the Queen. Ooops.

Looks like the DUP are going under the bus any day now, he might regret that come the GE. Could be a way to a deal though as that was the EU’s Plan A for the backstop and most people this side of the Irish Sea don’t give a monkeys. I think a lot would be glad to see that particular problem fade into a United Ireland. The USA wouldn’t be blocking a trade deal either.

We’ll see. Lots more to come.

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