Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

We are going to need some good negotiators. I would not have trusted Mrs Mays Brexit team to tie their own shoe laces ( with her at the head of the team). Lets hope Boris picks some better people.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

VFM I understand what you’re saying but the result will be no different. If our leaders can be mad enough to purposely hurt our own country economically, why isn’t it tenable that any other country would? We don’t have a monopoly on cutting off our own noses……

The simple answer is because the motivations are entirely different.   The backstop or non-existence of one does not directly impact Germany either way.     On the other hand its existence impacts the UK directly; and as shown on multiple occasions May’s WA cannot pass while it remains.    Put another way we might be prepared to cut our noses off for our own sake but will Merkel cut her nose off for Eire’s or the EU’s sake?     The EU is already preparing plans to manage the NI border ‘away from the border’ in the case of a WTO Brexit.    In other words they are preparing the ‘alternative arrangements’ which they say are not today possible.

I believe, as I suspect BoJo does, that on this occasion if we hold the line the EU will chose the May’s WA minus the backstop option.    What convinces me that will happen was Barnier’s comments.    When he said the UK was seeking to fracture EU unity he made the slip of revealing what he himself had concluded was a real possibility.    Remember also that of all EU states Merkel has over the last six months given more hints that she would be prepared to re-open the WA than any other EU leader.   Rather than us now on a collision path with the EU my bet is Merkel will be on a collision path with Macron.   Forget the other EU states it will be those two that decide if the WA is re-opened although Veradkar will exert some influence.   I suspect when push looks very close to coming to shove he will side with Merkel.   Better for Eire to drop the backstop than to become a begging bowl state reliant on massive EU financial support to even survive.

Anyway that’s only how I read all this currently.   We must all wait and see.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

@VFM I believe that you like many other ‘ hard negotiators ‘ fail to give enough credence to the emotional significance of the EU.

It is not just a trade and/or regulatory body but instead is seen as a mechanism to ensure that war on mainland Europe cannot even be contemplated because of the inter-dependence of  the EU nations.

This means that it is quite possible, and in fact necessary for Germany (in particular) and others to damage themselves to preserve the EU.

[The VFM Addict]

The ‘inter-dependence’ was indeed cited as a means of preventing wars when the project was started in the 1950’s and was at least to some degree both credible and of merit in that decade.   However, extrapolated to consider its merit in the current situation is to imply that if the N.I. backstop is dropped then somehow war in Europe becomes more likely.    Which is far from credible.

To some degree when I hear Remainers use the above argument I am perplexed because it seems to defeat their own position.   Surely Remainers argue that in or out of the EU the UK will still be inter-dependent on EU states.   What I am saying is that in this century states are substantially inter-dependent irrespective of membership of a political project.    Indeed look around at your tech-kit.    Are we all not already dependent on many far east countries?    The world is very, very different now from the 1950’s.   I simply do not believe that it takes the EU to maintain peace in Europe.   Moreover I do not believe that when push comes to firm shove the EU sticks to its rules and doctrines.    Euro rules were ignored and smashed to bail out Greece.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Of course we will be inter-dependent on the EU come what may.

We will be very hard pressed to have more than a nominal voice in NATO. We will have to conform to EU regulations on product and agricultural exports from the UK into the EU. We will have to accept whatever the EU determines on the repatriation of illegal immigrants. I could also add that we will be only able to wring our hands if the EU decides to set up a hard border on the Eire/Ulster border.

The list goes on, except we will have no say in what the EU determines, and our country will become more fractured and divided.

 

[Dave Rice]

How can we not be inter dependent on an area where we do most of our trade and things like scientific research that’s mere miles away? Especially as we have prospered from that alliance and will be the poorer without it.

Why try and replicate this with countries thousands of miles away? Tell me the sense in that.

[Dave Rice]

Well the money markets seem to like the Boris win. Pound climbing against the euro and the USD.

And where are we today with new lows against both? Yes the Govt’s been touting a No Deal scenario and the CBI has highlighted just how unready everyone is for exactly that.

One point you missed with your inter-dependency argument. We may buy things from the far east be we make things, like cars and aeroplanes, with the EU. There is a whole dependent supply chain, not just a ship arriving at a dock – which probably Rotterdam anyway!

It looks like Project Fear is turning into Project Reality, not that it will make any difference to the ideologists (and they will blame someone else).

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

The whole of the EU project is just an exercise in ideology. It is a mess because it can not work properly without a common tax and a common spending policy to go along with its common currency.

Of course the EU’s response to their problems is to propose more Europe which will end up with a federal system anyway. Why dont they just come out and say that that is the intention ?

As for wars in Europe, you simply can’t have one like WWII because of nuclear weapons. If Germany tried to take control of France against its will (they are actually sleepwalking into it with the EU) it would not go well.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

And who knows, once they have established a federal European state with a common army under German control, what’s to stop them reviving their expansionist tendency’s ?

[The VFM Addict]

Eire’s Electorate, Economists and Political Commentators are starting to turn on Varadkar over his Brexit Backstop position, calling the backstop fraudulent and saying that sticking to it will trash the Eire economy.    I say that backlash is only just starting.

Watch it ramp up more and more through August and September as Eire realises that BoJo politically has no option but to hold the line and will do because the Brexit Party is at his heels ready to obliterate the Tories if he folds like May did.   Equally, get your piggy-bank and every contingency fund you have ready Germany because sticking to the backstop means you’ll be emptying it for the massive bail out Eire will need if its a WTO Brexit.   Greece will look like small change compared to it.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Bob Williams]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

And who knows, once they have established a federal European state with a common army under German control, what’s to stop them reviving their expansionist tendency’s ?

Had to answer this Graham, I still visit here from time to time.

You have to have lived amongst the Germans in their own country for some time, and get to know them, in order to realise that the last 3 generations have no such tendencies. The guilt felt by the vast majority of today’s Germans about what their ancestors did in WWII, will prevent that. Have no fear of another Blitzkrieg, it simply will not happen. Worry more about the fact that the Germans are loath to upgrade the quality and quantity of their armed forces and equipment, and may make concessions to the Russians instead of increasing their defence spending. You also have to understand the collapsed state of Germany, indeed the whole of Western Europe, in 1945. All the cities and most of the towns had to be rebuilt and they began that work mostly with bare hands and back breaking labour. The result is a modern nation with modern buildings that put most of ours to shame. They know that they do not want that again.

 

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

Watch it ramp up more and more through August and September as Eire realises that BoJo politically has no option but to hold the line and will do because the Brexit Party is at his heels ready to obliterate the Tories if he folds like May did.

You quoted one right-wing Irish (Ulster DUP?)) view, for balance let me quote another Eire view:

“Yet, paradoxically, the best hope for Ireland and for Europe – not to mention for British citizens themselves – is that Johnson as prime minister will be guided by three of his worst traits, which together have defined his career: he doesn’t mean a word he says, he is obsessed with power and he is willing to betray those closest to him in the pursuit of that power.” — Irish Times

[The VFM Addict]

I’m certain BoJo means what he says but not for the reason it first seems.

His plan is to force Labour to go heavily Remain and call a No Confidence Vote which he (BoJo) will hopefully lose.   He knows he can smash Labour at the ballot box while Corbyn remains leader.   So he wants a GE asap.    But as if forced to not of choice.    By holding the No Deal line he forces the likes of Hammond and Grieve to vote No Confidence aiding the loss he wants – and – by holding the No Deal position he wins back the Tory faithful that had deserted to the Brexit Party.      This is a BoJo master class in political manoeuvring.   No matter the buffoon act the guy is clever as hell.   You don’t win a scholarship at Eton (yes, he won his) and then get the degree he got at Oxford if you are a fool.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

He can’t smash anyone until we’re out, he’s not trusted enough. Do you think Farage will let him get away with that? Not a chance and his double dealing past will haunt him. I think you under estimate the role of the Lib Dems in all this too, they will do well in urban areas and this part of the world.

If in the meantime he wrecks the economy and increases division, both within his party and the country, and he threatens the Union, he won’t care. This is his only chance at the big one and that is all he cares about. I don’t think he even cares about Brexit or ever has, it’s his means to an end, his group of stooges. If he gets it I don’t think he’ll know what to do with it, like London he’ll let his mates do what they want whilst he swans about doing the PR bit. If things get too hot he’ll bugger off to the States.

So we learn his “support” of the Farmers facing tariffs will be to assist them in finding new markets, by which time the problem will have resolved itself aided by cheap food imports from a hurried US deal. Look at New Zealand when their market disappeared, except they had a local market to aim at, our farmers have the opposite. Japan? Really? I think the EU and Australians, who have a trade deal already, will have something to say about that.

[Ed P]

I think any Welsh sheep farmer with half a brain will realise that they cannot currently compete on price  with New Zealand lamb even on our own turf. Trying to compete in the Middle and Far East against lower freight costs means that they are dead in the water.

Even though Wales voted for Brexit, Bojo et al stated that they would be able to preserve the trade status quo with the EU and it was that promise that gained them the support they needed.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

He can’t smash anyone until we’re out, he’s not trusted enough. Do you think Farage will let him get away with that? ………………………………….

Dave, this is why he will not try to call a GE himself.    He wants to keep heading firmly for a No Deal by 31 October and the sole reason he doesn’t get there to be Parliament (i.e. not his fault nor lack of effort on his part).    The GE that results will see him saying all he needs is the majority required to get it through.    That will be enough for a huge chunk of the former deserters to return to vote Tory.   Plus he doesn’t give a monkey’s if some seats are lost to the Brexit Party because Labour will lose at least as many.    All he needs is to be the Leader of the Largest Party that gets him back in; so his calculation has, shall we say, the capacity to deal with a margin or error.   After all the Brexit Party and the DUP aren’t going to side with the SNP, Labour and LibDems, are they?    So even if he doesn’t get an outright majority he’s still in pole position.

Forget the LibDems.   If Labour go all out as Remain then Labour will recapture quite a few voters from them.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

That’s pretty much what I said a few days ago.

I think Labour are too wishy washy now, I wouldn’t trust them because they still aren’t clear. If there’s a referendum they’ll back Remain, if they win a GE they’ll go for their own Leave. Not good enough. Neither do I think Corbyn will change his tune.

We’ll see, plenty can happen but you’re still picking the best of any scenarios, no matter how unlikely, and adding them all together to come out with the answer you want. The less ardent Brexiteers won’t be happy now that the economic realities are coming home to roost. They were told it wouldn’t be like this.

My bet is that whatever else, we will still be in the EU come 1st November.

[JayCeeDee]

The VFM Addict wrote:

Plus he doesn’t give a monkey’s if some seats are lost to the Brexit Party because Labour will lose at least as many.

The VFM Addict wrote:

Forget the LibDems.   If Labour go all out as Remain then Labour will recapture quite a few voters from them.

If the second comes about, ( both are actually likely scenarios )  he’ll need to give a monkey’s about the first.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I see that Boris is now starting to put the blame where it belongs with regard to a no deal. The EU said at the start of negotiations that they WOULD NOT discus a trade deal with the UK until we had left the EU and they have been true to their word. They proposed instead that we stay in the customs union, bung them £38bn, keep paying increased subs, loose our voting rights and our right to leave without their say so. Err No.

They now say they will not negotiate further until we tell them what we want. Well we have told them, ditch the backstop (which is not a backstop but EU policy) and we’ll talk.

The response has just been Non. Boris should be shouting even louder that a no deal would be THEIR FAULT.

[Bob Williams]

WoF wrote:

” Boris should be shouting even louder that a no deal would be THEIR FAULT. ”

The response from the EU would be ‘And so what?’ in several languages.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

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