Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

This article (written yesterday) sums up the position with Sterling. It depends very much in Brexit and if Boris gets gobby about No Deal, down it goes. I’m off to Berlin in 4 weeks time so hopefully they’ll be on summer holidays and it can at least stay where it is. Apart from a day trip to St. Ives, I’ve not been west of Truro for a long time. A mate / colleague lived on Roseland peninsula and I used to visit when working in Truro. Beautiful part of the country. I’m glad we’re eating more Hake now, I prefer it to Cod but only used to see it in Spain.

Don’t worry Dave its continuing to climb today.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

A bit like saying one snail is going faster than another. Technically it’s a fact but when you’re alluding to the concept of speed it needs to be put in it’s proper context.  Sterling has a long, long way to go to pre Referendum levels. Now that would be a rise worth talking about and a true assertion that they like Boris and his plans. It’s not going to happen is it?

“GBP already trades at crisis levels and typically struggles to move much lower,” says Rochester. ‘While we acknowledge that a no-deal Brexit is a risk and would very likely record new lows in GBP, we do not expect the market to assign a higher hard Brexit premium than previously or until parliament returns after the summer break in September.”

So if he keeps his gob shut I may get about the same this month as last.

[Ed P]

The £/Euro is a poor measure of confidence as both get hit badly with a hard Brexit. A much better measure is the £/USD.

[Ed P]

The one change I like about BoMac’s (Mendacious American Clown) new cabinet is that Greylings’s gross incompetence is at last rewarded with the order of the boot.

[JayCeeDee]

+1

[Bob Williams]

+2. Around here he is viewed as Dr. Beeching MK.II, without the competence and dedication. A line that once ran from London to (eventually) Skegness, Louth, Grimsby and Cleethorpes, then over the Pennines to Manchester, would have been so useful now. With another line to Leeds from Cleethorpes, via Hull. If Beeching had possessed intelligent foresight, that would have reduced some of the HGV traffic. Not to mention the growing carnage in a county with very few dual carriageways.

The joke played upon imposed upon the defunct East Lincolnshire Railway company, is that the old Station in Alford Lincs, is now a Jacksons Building centre and lies upon Beechings Way. The ELR line connected Boston, Louth and Grimsby and would have been a boon to freight and passenger traffic here today. The line was leased to, and became part of, the GNR, with connections all over the North and Midlands. Would that not be a large part of the “Northern Powerhouse” that certain politicians bleat about, were it still functioning today?. (Pauses to stick another pin in the Beeching figure)

Couldn’t get the whole line in one image, but here it is:

Lots of villages on the line, I do not expect all those Halts could have been saved, but the main stations would have been of great use today: our public transport is dire*. Legbourne Road is just outside my village of Legbourne (on Station Road!) and has been a private house owned by the same family for many years. When I first came here in 2003, the gentleman who owned it used the station outbuildings as a museum, having bought much of the station equipment, signs and furniture when it closed. He eventually retired and closed the museum, but when he passed away his son remained and keeps the buildings as close as possible to the original, but did not reopen the museum, having been quoted silly money to insure it.

*No buses Sundays, none on Bank Holidays (in a tourist area!) and the former Lincoln-Grimsby-Mablethorpe-Skegness route ends at Mablethorpe. And ends at 1930 in the week anyway. We are isolated. (sticks another pin in the Martin Griffiths figure, CEO of Stagecoach)

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Bob Williams]

Damn! Said I wouldn’t comment here again, but that was not a Brexit rant.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Bob the improvement that most Northerners want is a faster Liverpool -> Leeds line. The present line chugs along at 40 mph and takes the best part of an hour to get from Manchester to Leeds in conditions that would be illegal for animals.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Actually Dr Beeching knew exactly what he was doing when he took the job. The government wanted a hatchet man and he agreed to play the villan for a large fee. It was his last big payday before retirement so he just followed his brief and closed every line that was making a loss.

He did not close the loss making line out of Marylebone because the BR board was based there and its members used the line to get to their homes in the home counties.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

Actually Dr Beeching knew exactly what he was doing when he took the job. The government wanted a hatchet man — to ensure that there would be no effective alternative to Earnest Marple’s business interests

+1 otherwise

This was one of the most odiferous Government moves of that time. You only have to compare our dysfunctional network with that of Germany to get a sense of what we lost through eliminating our regional network. Germany is also an object lesson in the effects of privatisation. It used to be an ‘Always on Time’ service  but privatisation has altered all that.

[Dave Rice]

When we go on our 5 day European jaunts it’s to a major city but we always try and spend one day elsewhere. We could easily hire a car but we’ve not found a need to. Fares are usually cheaper than here but you do get “summer specials” too. Last summer we got a 1st class return ticket to Graz for E40 each – through the UNESCO Simmering Pass. We’ll be looking at doing that in Berlin, but the travel pass includes Potsdam so that’ll probably be it.

The exception is Venice, but the unique geography has a lot to do with that. Tourists do pay double what the locals pay though and you do get the sense you’re a cash cow.

Our local train to Weston-Super-Mare was a 2 car affair, now we have ex Thames Valley 3 car jobs, but they’ll still be rammed in this weather with day trippers. Why can’t they make them longer, join two together? I can only assume they don’t have the rolling stock.

[The VFM Addict]

First time ever i think I agree with Barnier.

Can’t help but agree with Barnier that BoJo is trying to split EU Unity; especially between Eire, France and Germany.     If it’s a WTO Brexit then the EU will need to dig deep to bail out Eire; and without the £39B from us either.

Germany as the EU’s ‘main banker’ typically has to be the main one to fund bail-outs.   German industrial figures again today were very poor.    The last thing it needs on top of impending recession is to have to bail out Eire.   This will cause considerable friction between France and Germany; and leave Eire worrying if they will when it comes to it be bailed out?    In many ways BoJo is in a far stronger position than was May because he is striking at the point where Germany is already vulnerable due to their industrial downturn.  May, even if she had ever had the stomach for a fight, did not have that advantage.

Question – Can Germany really handle its own impending recession; a considerable loss of sales to the UK; having to help fill the £39B shortfall; and bail out Eire – all at once?    I think not.    Germany will be looking to drop the backstop  and thereby get the WA through.   France won’t be because it gives them the edge they want in Fishing negotiations and Eire will be running around like a headless chicken facing decimation of their economy in the event of a WTO Brexit.    As I see it and as I suspect Barnier has recognised also, EU unity is at its most vulnerable ever.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The main stumbling block to an Eire/UK settlement are the regulatory requirements of the EU and the potential for the UK to magically negotiate better trade deals with other countries than trade deals obtained by the EU. The regulatory aspects should be solvable as the UK needs to conform to generally agreed manufacturing standards, the trade deal aspect is moot and depends on your personal view of UK negotiating strengths.

In that latter the publication today by the Office for National Statistics is useful information. As any good deal between nation states means a balanced degree of pain we are not in a great negotiating position with many countries – the US worst of all.

[Dave Rice]

We’ve heard all these arguments before, the dogs that never bark. It was German cars, French cheese and Italian Proseco back in the day.

The EU will protect their core principles and if they take a hit they will suck it up. Isn’t that exactly what the Brexiteers say they will do for the UK? Out whatever the cost? It’s all one sided propaganda and always has been.

BoJo knows all this very well and those supporting him would do well to google “The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge”.

[Bob Williams]

Ed, thanks for that ONS link. An eye-opener, I checked many of the Trade statistics. Clearly, we have great discrepancies with many EU countries, with a few notable exceptions. Equally clearly, we need the US, Australia and NZ, and certain others. Sobering thoughts.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

It really should be far simpler for the UK to do trade deals with the rest of the world than it is for the EU. We are only negotiating for ourselves and compromises can be reached much more quickly.

A trade deal with the EU is of course much more difficult because they are negotiating on behalf of 27 nation states who have different ideas on what they want and the EU commission is determined to cut off its own nose to spite us anyway.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

We’ve heard all these arguments before, the dogs that never bark. It was German cars, French cheese and Italian Proseco back in the day. The EU will protect their core principles and if they take a hit they will suck it up. Isn’t that exactly what the Brexiteers say they will do for the UK? Out whatever the cost? It’s all one sided propaganda and always has been. BoJo knows all this very well and those supporting him would do well to google “The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge”.

I both agree and disagree with your opening tenet.    The argument is similar but not identical because it now exists in a fully evidenced different environment.    Germany is now far more vulnerable than ever before; of that there is no doubt.    So for that matter is Merkel’s finger tip grip on power.    To saddle Germany now with bailing out Eire (a load it could once easily have carried) is quite probably something Merkel would move heaven and earth to avoid.    Would she put EU unity on the backstop that far ahead of Germany’s current needs?    I’m not sure.   After all what is the alternative?    A WTO exit where no backstop exists anyway.

Dave, the point I was making was its not just BMW any more.  Its the trending of the whole German economy that pressurises Merkel right now.  That is a very different dynamic.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

t really should be far simpler for the UK to do trade deals with the rest of the world than it is for the EU. We are only negotiating for ourselves and compromises can be reached much more quickly.

That is a strength in terms of speed, but a huge weakness in negotiating clout especially with the US. If we open our doors to Trump’s US First – expect to get the family silver stolen and the carpet crapped on!

[Dave Rice]

VFM I understand what you’re saying but the result will be no different. If our leaders can be mad enough to purposely hurt our own country economically, why isn’t it tenable that any other country would? We don’t have a monopoly on cutting off our own noses. This is what we have been told, be tough because the British Bulldog will always be tougher than Johnny Foreigner. It’s total bollocks.

There’s a difference between doing a trade deal and getting a good one. We only have ourselves to think about? not really. We still do most of our trade with the EU and will still be very linked to them by supply chains. Unless of course you want to say goodbye to those industries like Aerospace?

If we start growing GM crops or use chemical washing that’s goodbye to the EU agriculture market, so where are we going to sell this stuff? Why replace a perfectly good product and market for an uncertain one? This is what I just don’t understand.

BoJo knows nothing can happen over the summer so he can blame the EU. When parliament is back and blocking his no deal plans he can blame the MPs. When Halloween looms and we won’t be out (not his fault he will say) he will call a GE. Then we shall see where we are. Until then it’s all hot air and his stooges will be doing the detailed work for him that he won’t, or can’t. He’ll just be tub thumping, misdirecting and promising the earth to everyone.

[Ed P]

As others have pointed out Trade Negotiations between just two countries take a very long time – even the US-Canada deal took four years from start of talks and Trumpers talks of selectively tearing up parts of it with NAFTA adding even more complications.

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