Forumite Members › General Topics › Politics › Europe › Brexit now = CETA +/-?
- This topic has 1,833 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 7 months ago by
Dave Rice.
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June 5, 2019 at 9:43 am #33916
US factory farm corn-fed yellow chicken will totally undercut domestic chicken farmers due to our much higher cost animal welfare standards (79% of the price of UK chickens). The chlorination bit is because salmonella is endemic in US factory chickens unlike the EU where measures (post Edwina Curry) were taken to eliminate any chickens with the disease. I could not care less about the chlorination process but I do care about why it is required. Say good-bye to soft-boiled eggs if you let in US eggs!
btw ignore any Adam Smith Institute comments – they are well known as the least transparent body wrt their sources of funding, and therefore cannot be trusted as an independent body.
June 5, 2019 at 10:31 am #33917There you go again, Ed, even if all you said was correct it would still not be a case of, “Say good-bye to soft-boiled eggs if you let in US eggs!”. It would be a case of, “Say good-bye to soft-boiled eggs if you choose to buy US eggs!”. The choice remains yours just as it does today when buying things like free range chicken or organic vegetables.
Moving on to other Brexit matters BoJo beginning to build a major lead over Gove and Hunt in the number of MPs declaring for him. A “save my seat” panic seems to be starting to materialise with Remainers such as Robert Jenrick and Oliver Dowden, who both represent Leave constituencies, now falling in behind BoJo declaring for him.
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June 5, 2019 at 12:09 pm #33919The choice may not be allowed as the US is well-known for insisting that the market contains nothing that will discriminate against US agricultural products. Just check out the furore in Japan wrt US beef imports. In other words the products will not be allowed to be labelled with anything which could influence buyers to purchase non-US products.
June 5, 2019 at 2:24 pm #33922While half of the Conservative MP’s have not stated who they are behind, the real pattern will only emerge on Monday when the deadline to declare runs out with all those thinking about going for the top job having to make their mind up along with the new rules providing the optimists with a touch of clarity!!
June 5, 2019 at 3:44 pm #33924Actually at the time you posted it was already well over half declared who they were supporting (162 to be exact). However, your point is still valid. We won’t get any firm indicators until after the first round of voting I suspect. But the momentum is currently is with BoJo.
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June 5, 2019 at 5:40 pm #33925Actually at the time you posted it was already well over half declared who they were supporting (162 to be exact). However, your point is still valid. We won’t get any firm indicators until after the first round of voting I suspect. But the momentum is currently is with BoJo.
I’d just been watching our recording of today’s Politics Live and was quoting their numbers.
BoJo has been keeping his head down while Trump is in play – I reckon his head will appear over the parapet either on the weekend Political shows or he’ll be preparing for a big presentation come Monday.
June 7, 2019 at 6:43 am #33954The Labour win in Peterborough has demonstrated the difference between an EU election and a national election.It also shows that the EU referendum polling (61% voted leave) is also not a predicator.
Although Labour only narrowly won, they only narrowly won at the last General Election (almost exactly the same absolute majority). Turn-out was admittedly down but this is often the case in by-elections.
The big news of course was the annihilation of the Conservatives and UKIP.
FPTP once again demonstrated the failure of out democracy.
June 7, 2019 at 11:27 am #33961Given that Peterborough was being flagged as a racing certainty for the Brexit Party and given the D Day coverage and poor weather I can easily imagine that 700 or more Leavers failed to vote assuming it to be a done deal. So in the long run the result may well do the Brexit Party some good. A chance to flog – “If you want it you must get out and vote.”
Having said that what it did do was make clear to the Tories that unless they deliver Brexit pretty damn quick they will be toast at the next GE because the Brexit Party are taking huge chunks out of them. A lot of Tory MPs yet to declare allegiance to any candidate so this weekend once May is no longer officially leader we will probably get a glut declaring.
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June 7, 2019 at 2:35 pm #33967All the election actually showed was that the Liberals and greens aren’t the threat they thought they were and that The Brexit Party is.
June 8, 2019 at 2:21 pm #33976I both agree and disagree with that, WoF. There was a swing to the LibDems in Peterborough although nowhere near as much as to TBP. It certainly suggests the LibDems may pose a significant threat to both the Tories and Labour in seats that very heavily voted Remain and hence where TBP is unlikely to ever gain significant traction.
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June 10, 2019 at 1:58 pm #34029Well I finally tore up my betting slip today. I had money on Penny Mordaunt many many months back as an outside bet for next Tory Leader. But today she’s proved herself to be a total Hunt…………….supporter. ?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
June 10, 2019 at 4:48 pm #34033Wish i’d had a bet on Boris 2 years ago. The odds would have been er “”favourable” ?
June 11, 2019 at 5:13 pm #34060If a week in politics is a long time 2 years are millennia. Actually so is a day.
I keep looking at the latest tallies and they are now falling in behind BoJo at a rate of knot. The funny thing is that it is all probably down to Corbyn and Letwin who are planning shackling legislation before the new Tory Leader is in place. If that passes then for any Tory leader to get Brexit though will take a GE So it will be backs to the wall because No Brexit would finish the Tories anyway. So if it has to be mortal combat then there is no option but BoJo because he’s the only one with any chance of bringing back those who deserted for the Brexit Party.
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June 11, 2019 at 6:30 pm #34062At the end of the day the DUP will still call the shots!
June 11, 2019 at 7:38 pm #34065At the end of the day the DUP will still call the shots!
Maybe, maybe not? One thing I am sure of and that is that another dithering Remainer as PM will finish off the Tories for a decade or more. No-one wants a May-Bot clone.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
June 11, 2019 at 7:44 pm #34066The DUP call the shots as a withdrawal of support triggers a General Election.
June 12, 2019 at 6:36 am #34069The DUP call the shots as a withdrawal of support triggers a General Election.
I’m not sure the DUP matter much anymore. A GE is close to certain anyway. But its then that Corbyn’s real problem surfaces.
The latest data it seems shows that if Labour tack hard to Remain or 2nd Ref then they gain 4 to 5% of the popular vote nationally staving off the LibDem challenge and possibly winning some Tory Seats. However, analysis by constituency has them likely to lose even more heavily to the Brexit Party in the strong Leave seats if they do. The worse case scenario leaves Labour down at barely more than 100 Westminster seats. Assuming that BoJo will recapture some deserters from the Brexit Party then the Tories being the biggest party in Westminster is highly likely with a Tory/BP majority in the HoC close to certain.
Corbyn really is between a rock and a hard place and its all down to the mismatch between the consensus opinion of Labour voters nationally and the consensus opinion of Labour voters in the Labour heartlands of Wales and the North. I therefore don’t see that the DUP are as relevant as they once were. As I read it if Corbyn and Letwin manage their No Deal shackling legislation then a GE is pretty certain – and – if they don’t then plainly the attitude of the HoC re a No Deal Brexit will be demonstrated to have changed. If it has my bet is that it will be shaky knee Labour MP’s in strong Leave seats that will have tipped the balance.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
June 12, 2019 at 6:47 am #34071Turkeys do not vote for Christmas and any erstwhile Tory leader that looks like forcing a General Election will rapidly become an ‘Erstwhile’ Tory leader. The threat of an election is enough to make most of the Tory party shiver in their shoes especially if new Brexit candidates are hovering around to split their votes.
June 12, 2019 at 6:53 am #34072This doesn’t look like Turkey’s voting for Christmas it looks like taking the shot when the time is right.
Don’t Brexit by 31 October and don’t have a GE by then and then the Tories know they WILL be toast and the Brexit Party clean up when the GE eventually comes. That’s why if the Shackling Legislation gets passed in has to be a GE immediately delaying would be fatal.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
June 12, 2019 at 9:20 am #34074As I have said before, many MPs STILL don’t get it. They are elected to run the country on behalf of the people unless they actually ASK the people, then they must carry out the WILL of the people.
I predict a continued big mess. Even with BoJo in charge I think the Turkey’s WILL vote for execution by continuing to block a hard Brexit.
We will end up with a GE that will see many Brexit party MPs in the house but maybe Labour in control.
They don’t know what they wan’t but they do know a second referendum would likely return the same result, and then they would have to honour it, so that wont happen.
We will just stumble on until the EU throws us out, and they will because the Brexit party is going to be using its new EU parliament seats to make as much trouble for them as possible.
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