Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

I suppose I should have added the UKIP vote to Farage’s Brexit vote, but I did not want to imply that Farage was a party of Nick Griffin types. The press comments that both major parties were being punished for the Brexit mess is probably the correct analysis, and Change UK showed that they are just about as relevant as UKIP.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Yes Ed and I understand the BBC’s point of view.

If you discount all the votes for Lab/Con as misguided party loyalty and then count all the rest as a vote to remain then they just about beat the brexit party ?

[The VFM Addict]

I would have thought that the truly BIG issue now is FPTP.   Haven’t seen the stats run yet but I would guess that had this been a GE based on FPTP then TBP would be the largest party in Westminster.   Not least because it performed extremely well in the Labour heartlands.   This must be a serious matter for concern for both the Tories and Labour.

Dare the Tories chose anything other than an ardent Brexiteer as Leader?    And dare Corbyn call a vote of confidence immediately a new Tory Leader is elected?     I believe anyone who thinks that the strength of feeling evidenced in the EU elections will not endure until the next GE is out of touch.    This is feeling that has endured since June 2016 and has merely boosted by events since then.   FPTP unlike before now works in Farage’s favour not against him.    Yes, come a GE, the ‘Remain’ vote might be able to beat the ‘Leave’ vote if the Remain vote could be consolidated under one party but that isn’t going to happen is it?     Labour, the LibDems and the Greens are hardly ever unlikely to give ground to each other.    They couldn’t even agree on a unified candidate for the upcoming Peterborough by-election.    No chance that could do it across over 600 seats in a GE.   The Leave Vote now is super consolidated under one party, TBP, and that’s what counts under FPTP.

The die is surely cast, is it not?    The Tories take us out of the EU by Halloween or TBP comprehensively takes out the Tories and a huge swathe of Labour MPs come the next GE.

For those interested, a regularly updated list of each Tory candidate’s declared supporters can be found here it might be a place to regularly watch over the coming months.

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[Ed P]

I agree FPTP distorts everything, but so does the fact that many used the EU election as a ‘free’ protest vote. Perhaps it is useful to remember the previous EU result where UKIP conquered all, and compare this to UKIP’s General Election results a few years later.

I wonder if this might be the necessary catalyst to get the centre ground parties to work together, as apart from a few wacky policies they all are in general agreement on fundamentals. Labour on the other hand are totally out of touch with the country just like the Tories.

[The VFM Addict]

As I said I can’t see parties working together.  Would the LibDems give way to the Greens?  I doubt it in a battle for Westminster.

BTW when assessing total Leave vote re Remain vote in the EU elections I am still certain the current results would translate to a Leave win in a referendum.   Why?    Well, all EU citizens could vote in the EU elections  and there are millions of non-Brit EU Citizens in the UK.  They are likely to have voted for a Remain party and not for the Brexit Party.   They could not vote in a Referendum.   Plus far more Brexiteers were disheartened by what has occurred the last three years and said they would not vote again.    The TBP success could re-enthuse them.    When all of such is factored in my bet would be that we are still around 52/48 to Leave were a re-run to happen.

 

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[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

As I said I can’t see parties working together. Would the LibDems give way to the Greens?

Strategic cooperation between centre ground parties has happened before, and Farage’s party is a common enemy.  For example I could easily see the Lib Dems not putting up a candidate in Brighton.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

The VFM Addict wrote:

As I said I can’t see parties working together. Would the LibDems give way to the Greens?

Strategic cooperation between centre ground parties has happened before, and Farage’s party is a common enemy. For example I could easily see the Lib Dems not putting up a candidate in Brighton.

To what end?    The TBP was not really challenging there in the EU’s nor would ever be likely to do so in a GE.    The Greens could handle TBP in that constituency all on their own.   Take a look.

 

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[Ed P]

I know many dyed in the wool Conservatives in this area who voted Brexit purely as a protest against the way the party was being run. They saw Brexit as a safe pseudo-Tory party and did not want to give comfort to the Lib Dems or heaven-forbid Corbyn. They have now tottered back to their Conservative Association without a qualm as they successfully got rid of May and can now help select the next PM. Bottom line, the EU results are indicative of mood, and are not a General Election forecast.

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

They have now tottered back to their Conservative Association without a qualm as they successfully got rid of May and can now help select the next PM. Bottom line, the EU results are indicative of mood, and are not a General Election forecast.

Agreed – just as long as your name isn’t Alastair Campbell!! Have you seen what Labour have done to him for voting LibDems in the EU election?? Outrageous hypocrisy on Jeremy Corbyn’s part, taking into account his voting history as a back-bencher!!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

It is more than an expression of mood it is a threat. The TBP and Nige are going nowhere before October so something had better happen before then. If they make the mistake of not including Boris in their final two selection then its curtains.

[The VFM Addict]

Forget the Joshua shock.   Its the Tories and Labour that are on the ropes spitting out gumshields and facing a shocking defeat come the next GE.  TBP has now overtaken all parties to lead the list in voting intentions come the next GE.

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[Ed P]

Except Trump and his ‘America First’ policy has come out in favour of no-deal and Farage.

Beware of any US foreign/trade policy it is totally untrustworthy!

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

Except Trump and his ‘America First’ policy has come out in favour of no-deal and Farage.

No deal =WTO terms; WTO – is that W*nker Trumps Offer???

After a No Deal Brexit can you just imagine the ‘preferential’ terms of that deal??!!

[The VFM Addict]

I don’t entirely disagree but EU trade policy can also work against our national interests while we remain an EU member.    Our needs are not the same as German’s, France’s, Spain’s, Italy’s, etc., and while folks say the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world. it is also the largest protectionist bloc in the world.

One simply cannot ignore that the bloc’s share of world trade has been falling for thirty years.     All growth will becoming in the close future from China, India, South America, Polynesia and Africa.    That’s where we should be focusing our attention especially given that with the exception of certain parts of Africa we have a far better name than the USA.   The argument that we are too small to go it alone falls every time once one looks at Israel which is smaller than Wales.   Its all about innovation and determination whether one succeeds of fails, surely?

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[The VFM Addict]

Returning to the UK political dynamics re Brexit: here are the most well known MPs who voted Remain, but sit in Leave seats.   All are of course vulnerable therefore to The Brexit Party come the next GE.    Two have retreated to ground where they could perhaps mount a defence; that is to say have come out for No Deal BoJo.    Those two are Johnny Mercer and Grant Shapps.

The rest of the Tories in the group shown have not come out for anyone; except Javid, Stewart and Hancock who obviously have come out for themselves.   So which scalps will TBP take come the next GE?   I’d say Cooper, Soubry and Letwin are close to odds-on with Rudd following closely.

In other Brexit related news Chukka seems to be heading for the lifeboats recognising that the not-so-good ship Change UK is already floundering in rough seas.   He has said only Labour can bring about another referendum or the revocation of Art 50.    Such self confidence in the party that he founded must have gone done like a lead balloon with the rest of CUK, the TIGGERS or whatever they are calling themselves this week.  I notice that Heidi Allen, CUK’s lead spokesperson seems to pretty much have gone into hiding since the EU elections.   But then again Soubry blamed Allen for the bad EU showing.   Well CUK have beaten the SDP because it took  that gang far longer to begin to crumble.   But then again the SDP was started by MPs of far greater substance than that of which the TIGGERS are made.

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[PlaneMan]

If I could just put one thing in this discussion.

I’d like to think that we might get to the point where Twisted Sister banged the nail on the head.

We’re not going to take it.

[Mark Turner]

PlaneMan wrote:

If I could just put one thing in this discussion. I’d like to think that we might get to the point where Twisted Sister banged the nail on the head. We’re not going to take it.

My youngest loves that video. There is a video on youtube were Dee Snider is sat  before Al Gore in some senate committee type thing  answering questions because united american mothers or some random mothers group wanted to ban rock or something like that. He pretty much told Gore he wasn’t gonna take it. I thinks that’s how it went I watch all sorts of sh!t when i’m drunk.

[The VFM Addict]

Well as I said two days ago the split in Change UK has now fully materialised.   About half are staying with ChUK and half reverting to being called The Independent Group again.    But then again if you’ve split from one party it must be easier to split from another……LOL To confuse matters more Chukka is not staying ChUK but going with TIG.   Heidi Allen and Chukka are rumored to be considering splitting from TIG and joining the LibDems.    More quick change artists then than simple turncoats.      Soubry it seems  is staying with ChUK and hopefully will go down with that ship.

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[Ed P]

After meeting Farage, Trump has rolled back his statement that the US would want a piece of the NHS. Believe that, you believe anything. Without the bargaining power of the EU the UK would be very weak in any US trade negotiations so the US can be counted on to foist their bright yellow salmonella laden chickens on us, as well as linking in to grabbing everything they could in the NHS.

Before TBLiar sold the world down the river to Bush I used to be pro-US. I now realise that I was extremely naive, and they are totally untrustworthy.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed, it is a reality that every Leaders (President, PM , etc.) has to fight his/her own country’s corner.    That is in part why I am against the EU.    Our corner is not the same as France’s, Germany’s, Poland’s, Hungary’s, etc.    There are and quite obviously will always be times when that which is in the best interests of the majority of EU member states will be directly contrary to ours.    So I am unconvinced that it is true to say that being a member of the EU protects our interests.

As regards the NHS, privatisation is already well under way like it or not.   Great swathes of NHS services are outsourced to private companies.    Call an out of hours GP in the UK and its close to odds on that it will be a private company delivering that service; almost all CCG’s purchase in out of hours service.    Indeed it is almost always forgotten that every daytime GP is actually a private contractor rather than an NHS employee.   Indeed  even the scanning dept’s (CAT scans, MRI, etc.) are quite often outsourced private contractors.   Only X-rays seem to have been pretty much exclusively retained in-house.    I fear US contractors no more than I fear UK contractors.   And frankly large US companies fail and go into administration leaving a mess far less often that do UK ones.

I always laugh at the Chlorinated Chicken Fears.   The American 1st Airborne will not be patrolling Tesco’s and Asda, etc., forcing you to buy American Chicken, I promise you.   You will still be able to buy products with the Red Tractor Logo on them so you know the food was produced or reared in the UK if you so desire.

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[Author]

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