Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I am going to reserve judgement for the moment but I think I smell a rat.

Mrs May is the only one who can truly speak for the government when it comes to making major concessions. She is the only one who can say her red lines don’t really matter.

Like I said, we shall see.

[The VFM Addict]

D-Dan wrote:

I’m honestly surprised she’s managed to last until now without another GE, and I’m not convinced that she will last through the summer recess.

She can’t help but make it through the recess.  Tory party leadership rules require parliament to be sitting for a leadership election to take place.   So no matter how many letters are handed in, be it 48 or 98, nothing happens until parliament re-sits.   That leaves her with a whole summer to do her dirty dealings with Merkel, Junker and Tusk.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

https://capx.co/the-eus-euro-clearing-plan-is-an-act-of-protectionist-self-harm/

I wondered what Euro clearing was all about and now I have a better idea. Don’t look like its leaving London anytime soon.

[Ed P]

Dave Rice wrote:

Starting (or ending) at The George? Not been there for a while.

One walk of twenty miles to Bradford on Avon and back started and ended at the George. One pint of Harvest Gold=7 miles, but it was so darned hot we probably drank twice as much water! The halfway point on that walk was the Angelfish at the Brassknocker Basin.. The Kennet & Avon canal is recommended for both walkers and cyclists as it is well served by both pubs and public transport. However if you cycle please do not tear-arse along. I got to feel positively evil towards some of the inconsiderate cyclists hoping they would end up in the canal!

[D-Dan]

The VFM Addict wrote:

Tory party leadership rules require parliament to be sitting for a leadership election to take place. So no matter how many letters are handed in

I didn’t say a leadership election, I said a general election. The polls are showing the Tory’s losing ground rapidly, and with the clusterf@ck that they are making of brexit (meanwhile, ignoring the fact that they are supposed to govern the country, probably because they are too busy fighting with themselves), the rail crisis (and as a regular rail user, I believe that crisis is an apt word), suddenly trying to buy public servants with a pay rise that can only be paid for by more cuts in their respective employments (no new money).

Let’s not forget, possible new taxes (so that they can claim to adherence to their manifesto of no tax increases – simply invent new ones), and particularly those aimed specifically at over 50s (which means the so called silver voters in many cases – possibly some of their best support) whilst continuing cutting taxes for corporates, and letting internationals off almost completely – and this is my field of expertise – will not get them any extra support other than perhaps financial from those same corporate backers.

Don’t even get me started on the £1Bn cash for votes deal, paid for by those same taxpayers.

But at a GE, it’s votes that count, and it’s votes they are sacrificing.

And it’s a GE this country needs. To hell with bad timing, we need this government gone.

EDIT: Full disclosure – I voted leave – but not like this.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[Bob Williams]

Corbyn’s lot will be worse. Nationalise everything, the compensation to utilities and others will be horrific, make EU/Brexit payments look like chicken feed. There is no single political party in this country that has any realistic answers to the mess we are in. Polls are unreliable: huge sections of the British electorate can suddenly change their minds and their votes.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

D-Dan wrote:

The VFM Addict wrote:

Tory party leadership rules require parliament to be sitting for a leadership election to take place. So no matter how many letters are handed in

I didn’t say a leadership election, I said a general election. The polls are showing the Tory’s losing ground rapidly, and with the clusterf@ck that they are making of brexit (meanwhile, ignoring the fact that they are supposed to govern the country, probably because they are too busy fighting with themselves), the rail crisis (and as a regular rail user, I believe that crisis is an apt word), suddenly trying to buy public servants with a pay rise that can only be paid for by more cuts in their respective employments (no new money). Let’s not forget, possible new taxes (so that they can claim to adherence to their manifesto of no tax increases – simply invent new ones), and particularly those aimed specifically at over 50s (which means the so called silver voters in many cases – possibly some of their best support) whilst continuing cutting taxes for corporates, and letting internationals off almost completely – and this is my field of expertise – will not get them any extra support other than perhaps financial from those same corporate backers. Don’t even get me started on the £1Bn cash for votes deal, paid for by those same taxpayers. But at a GE, it’s votes that count, and it’s votes they are sacrificing. And it’s a GE this country needs. To hell with bad timing, we need this government gone. EDIT: Full disclosure – I voted leave – but not like this.

Yep, I recognised that you were talking a GE.  That was exactly my point.   May cannot call a GE (always assuming she was mad enough to want one while Lab are ahead in the polls) without Parliament being in session.   Due to the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the HoC has to vote for another election before the end of the current fixed term or there can be no GE before the fixed term ends.    So as I said she is safe as houses until the end of the summer recess.    Likewise, while a new Tory Leader might recall Parliament before the end of the summer recess and call for a GE, which obviously Lab would support, that too cannot happen because there can be no Tory leadership election until Parliament is re-sitting.    Now consider the following.

If Tory MP’s want to oust May they get only one shot a year under the Tory rules.   If there’s a Leadership election and May wins she is totally fire proof for a year with not even her own party would be able to shift her.    This is why many Eurosceptics and many MP’s in marginal seats are holding back on handing letters into the Chair of the 1922.   There is no point in triggering a leadership election until it is clear there are enough who want May out such that she would lose a leadership race.

The summer recess will be critical in every area.    How much extra will May have to concede to the EU?    Will that be too much for the remaining Brexiteers in her cabinet?      Will MP’s come under so much pressure from their local associations that they realise May has to go?  Or will May’s tour of local associations during the recess win those associations over?     Plus what will the voting intention polls show during the recess?    Will Lab strengthen?  Will the UKIP recovery strengthen?    Or will Tory support strengthen?    This is the Summer of Tory Discontent and its damn hard to tell which way it will go.   I don’t ever recall a Parliamentary Recess which was as politically charged as this one.

 

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

At a time of such upheaval, they shouldn’t be having a summer break.

[Ed P]

The Duke wrote:

At a time of such upheaval, they shouldn’t be having a summer break.

True, but many of the leading Brexiteers need the break to sneak off-shore  to get their investments tuned up to get the full dividend of a hard Brexit. Guardian Article

[Bob Williams]

I was a Remainer, voted that way because, as I have said here before, I believed that staying in the EU was best for the future of young people, including my grandchildren. That was despite all the misgivings I had about Brussels powercrats and the “United States of Europe”, with the overweening influence of France and Germany.

I have become exasperated by the continual refusal of Barnier, guided by French and German influence, to to consider any proposals that the UK Brexit team puts forward. It is now my belief that the EU does not want us to leave, and is convinced by the London Blue Flag protesters, that the majority of the people of Britain would favour another Referendum, with a new result favourable to the UK staying in the EU.

http://tinyurl.com/ydexpyvv

They are wrong: I believe that people like myself will change their vote to produce an even bigger Leave majority. The EU, not for the first time, has misjudged the majority of the British people, by basing their judgements upon the actions of a stridently vocal minority. Those Blue Flag protesters do not speak for us all. There was a vote. The result has to be viewed as democratic. If we begin denying the veracity of a democratic procedure, where does it end?

France and Germany both know that, if we leave, they will have to stump up more Euros in order to support the lame ducks among the 27. They are also deadly afraid of other nations following our lead: in fact they blame us for the unrest among other members of the 27. The fact that they are causing the unrest themselves does not appear to enter their bureaucratic agenda.

I have become convinced that we need to break free of a Union that we never wanted to be part of in the first place: we were given the case for joining a Market, not a European super state. It is going to be tough times when we leave, but it may be that our PM needs to give the EU an ultimatum: this is our plan. Agree or we go, no final payment, no concessions. Goodbye,  Au revoir, Auf wiedersehen, Ciao, Adiós para siempre.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

Whatever happens there will have to be a final settlement of what we owe. If we refuse to pay it won’t look good to those we want to trade with if out first action is to renege on our debts.

It’s all posturing and I think will get worse before a deal is done. Both sides need a deal so there will be one, the question is how badly will we be affected because it can’t be as good as we have now. Hopefully the answer is hardly at all but that will mean hardline Brexiteers making compromises I just can’t see them making on pure ideological grounds.

[D-Dan]

Well, Barnier has already rejected the key point of the Chequers plan (as was expected). More to the point, it isn’t the amendment that he’s rejected, but the original draft on the UK collecting duties for the EU.

I agree with pretty much Bob has to say, and we come from opposing votes on that. Of itself, that tells you what a shi!t storm it’s become.

Weirdly, whilst I remain committed to my principals, I would think harder in the event of a new referendum (that’s not to say I’d change my vote), but clearly, when Major marched us in to the EU, he didn’t read the rules well enough, and didn’t realise that, if it failed, your only options are to stay, or to walk.

There is no middle ground with these highly paid, pensions of gold, and laws that make no sense but are binding eurocrats.

I guess I’d still go with leave, but my position on how may have changed. Whilst I would like to have seen a deal, I’m now of a mind that we walk. No divorce bill, WTO rules, and let the EU come to ask us for a deal. They have exposed themselves for what they are; power mad privileged  who want to maintain that power.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

Whatever happens there will have to be a final settlement of what we owe. If we refuse to pay it won’t look good to those we want to trade with if out first action is to renege on our debts. It’s all posturing and I think will get worse before a deal is done. Both sides need a deal so there will be one, the question is how badly will we be affected because it can’t be as good as we have now. Hopefully the answer is hardly at all but that will mean hardline Brexiteers making compromises I just can’t see them making on pure ideological grounds.

Dave, you appear misinformed or unaware that legally we owe nothing to the EU.   The various treaties are clear in that respect.    In reality such is a win-win situation for both sides.    We owe the EU nothing and likewise the EU owes us nothing in respect the considerable equity we have in the shared assets of the EU.

No state could consider us to have reneged on a debt which the treaties are clear did not even exist.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[D-Dan]

Whilst I am very much not in favour of a hard brexit – I’m beginning to think it’s either that, or status quo.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[The VFM Addict]

Take heart, matey.  Japan’s trade with the EU is miniscule compared to its trade with us.  Yet they did a free trade deal with them.  Don’t underestimate how much the EU needs a trade deal with us.   Its a double whammy we hold.   The main EU economies and Ireland cannot afford to have no trade deal with us; especially given that no deal means no £39B to plug the gap in its budget with us gone.  Certainly Merkel could not survive losing exports to us and having to have her electorate yet again fund holes in the EU coffers.  IF we hold our nerve political pragmatism WILL win out in the EU over its dogmatic rules.   I say again they did a free trade deal with Japan without Japan joining the customs union or single market and without the ECJ having jurisdiction over disputes.   The same with us IS possible even under EU rules.

How hard a no deal brexit would hit the EU is well argued here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Im not quite sure you are quite correct VFM. Under any treaty the EU cares to quote, if we walk away with no deal we owe them nothing BUT. We are continuing to pay our dues up until the leave date including paying into the fund that the EU will distribute as it sees fit in the future. We have paid in advance and the money has not been spent so why is it not ours ?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

In fact I am of the opinion that the more the EU manderins looked into the situation the more s**t they found themselves in. Their solution is to stick their heads in the sand and pretend its not happening.

[The VFM Addict]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

In fact I am of the opinion that the more the EU manderins looked into the situation the more s**t they found themselves in. Their solution is to stick their heads in the sand and pretend its not happening.

Spot on.   Ireland in particular would be hit for six by a no deal Brexit.   Most projections I have seen have it losing north of 4% GDP.    That’s why LV was getting quite aggressive talking about shutting his airspace to us.  I don’t think he realised that we would have to reciprocate meaning the only way he or his exports could fly to mainland EU would be via the long way round north or south.

I suppose the big question is whether the heads of the other EU states will, when push comes to shove, place EU dogma before their own economies?     My bet is they will not.

The soundings from the grass roots of the Tory party, and increasingly from Tory MP’s, are that May must now stand her ground very firmly indeed and leave the EU in no doubt that the UK will not cave in at the last minute and therefore if they will not play ball we will choose a WTO rules Brexit.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[D-Dan]

The Ireland problem is the only one that really worries me. S.Ireland are very much against a border, and are not known for their tolerance. This could lead to the old problems.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[The VFM Addict]

The GFA does not require that there be no border.  Already the VAT rate is different north and south as so are numerous other taxes.  Its a problem that can be solved if there is a will and there appears no appetite on either side of the N.I. divisions to return to the troubles.   TBH the onus is more on Leo V. to come up with a solution than on us.   The EU pressurise him on to hold firm on the border issue in the EU’s best interests but in  reality his domestic interests are far greater because if he doesn’t help solve the problem a no deal Brexit will crush his economy.   Eire has very little trade that is not with us or the EU.    At least for us 60% of our trade is already outside the EU and has been growing year on year for three decades, while our trade with the EU has fallen in percentage terms year on year for three decades (as has the EU’s share of the global economy).   As I said earlier, it is this ‘rock and a hard place’ for Leo V. that has made him so irritable/aggressive.   His choice if he doesn’t find a compromise is Ruin his economy or anger Brussels?    I envy his position far less than I envy May’s and that’s bad enough.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

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