Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

I understand how you reach that conclusion.  You might be right. Ed.    But then again what significant split of the right of centre could occur?   All polls suggest that just about all sensible voters who vote right of centre, certainly the majority of Leavers, are now aligning behind TBP.   While the left of centre and the majority of Remainers are scattered across numerous parties.     Surely on this occasion unlike with UKIP in 2015 FPTP is a godsend to Farage.   It works directly in his favour this time not against him.

I note that this evening long after I posted, JRM was,  during his LBC show, arguing identically to that which I had said was the scuttlebutt.    If and I stress only if, such realisation becomes the consensus among Tory MPs and they do oust May, install Raab or BoJo and go the No Deal route then TBP would be disarmed because a No Deal Brexit would almost certainly occur before the next GE.    That is fast becoming the Tories only route to survival.

But is No Deal even possible?   Well, the current situation is not that No Deal must be approved by Parliament.   The current situation is that No Deal remains the default at the end of October unless there is a further extension.   Neither Raab or BoJo would ask for one.  Of course Parliament could again grab the HoC prerogative and vote again to block No Deal.   But I believe there is increasingly less chance that they would for the following reasons.

If TBP massively win at the EU Elections on 23 May crushing the Tories and significantly damaging Labour – AND – do likewise in the Peterborough by-election both of which outcomes seem likely then; many MPs of both main parties who sit for heavily Leave voting seats will suddenly recognise their personal vulnerability.   How many MPs in such seats would then dare to vote in favour of a move to block the current No Deal default?    I suspect a whole lot less than have done previously.   Even if they are against No Deal most MPs are surely even more against a very real prospect that at the next GE they will lose their seats.   It is the EU elections and Peterborough which can and I suspect will provide compelling evidence that such is indeed a very real prospect.   To my mind the next four weeks will be decisive one way or the other and that 23 May and 6 June have the potential to change entirely the outcomes of all Brexit voting divisions in the current HoC.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

It is all down to interpretation of recent trends and the vagaries of FPTP.

Counterbalancing your view are the Local By-Elections in which all the momentum went to the anti-Brexit parties. All it needs is a bit of strategic voting to make the swing very much the opposite to your prediction.

[The VFM Addict]

I’m a bit baffled by your comment that the momentum all went to the anti-Brexit parties in the recent local elections because such assumes there was a credible pro-Brexit option to swing away from.    In reality there was not.    UKIP was too tainted for any reasonably minded Leaver to vote for and the Tories especially T. May were/are patently identified as not being pro-Brexit because May’s WA is universally acknowledged as BRINO; fully evidenced as such by the arch and consistently self declared Remainer, Ken Clarke, having voted thrice for it.

I do agree that tactical voting could take some of the edge from the TBP surge come the nerxt GE if lauded by all of the Remain parties.   However, the farce of the last 72 hours re a unified Remain candidate for Peterborough proves that isn’t going to happen.   At the 11th hour just before declarations closed the Remain parties’ alliance fractured with the unified candidate claiming he was directly intimidated by Labour such that he withdrew.    So it seems the individual parties and their desire to win for their party rather than cede seats to a unified Remain candidate is quite clearly itself unicorn territory.    And without party direction to tactical voting the vast majority of the public and especially each party’s ‘faithful’ will never get around to it, will they.    Indeed give the Clegg Coalition debacle not even Cable could convince his party faithful to align with anyone and given the LibDem election pamphlet the only person Cable wants to align with Charlie Mullins the owner of Pimlico Plumbers.    Perhaps they’ll sue Cable for copywrite infringement if times get tough……….LOL.     In reality Charlie Mullins is no fool.  He runs his business in a heavily remain area.    His slogan was designed to solicit reciprocal support (i.e. business) in the catchment area of his firm by gaining huge free publicity across all media for just the cost of a few signs.   A clever move.   I like his style.  Do you think though that he would have put such a sign up if he had run a plumbing firm in Boston, Lincolnshire where 75% voted Leave?    To hell he would.   I can’t see Charlie being prone to ‘Ratner’ moments.

Moving back to where we were lets see what happens in Peterborough.   Before I close I forgot to say the other day that what is really putting the fear of god up Tory MPs is that the party’s major donors both qualitatively and quantitatively are beginning to shift their support to TBP.    At the current rate the Tories will be in truly dire straits when it comes to funding their next GE campaign.  On top of the desertion of their own grass roots activists MPs could easily find then canvasing alone and with very little advertising support.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

An interesting side-story could be developing as there could be a strong dark horse Brexiteer running for the Tory Leadership.   One who might just reunite the party.    Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the 1922 Committee, has refused to rule himself out.     He is widely respected by both sides of the party for his impeccable integrity.     Backbenchers  could quite conceivably rally to his flag if he runs and being a Brexiteer opposed to a customs union the Tory grassroots could well accept him over any Remainers.  Watch this space.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

I’m a bit baffled by your comment that the momentum all went to the anti-Brexit parties in the recent local elections because such assumes there was a credible pro-Brexit option to swing away from.

Rightly or wrongly the voters seemed to associate the Conservatives with Brexit (credible or not). instead they voted for Lib Dems and Greens (both with Stop Brexit platforms). Analysis appears to show that this was not the case where Labour lost seats.

[The VFM Addict]

I am unaware of any evidence that any Leave voters associated the Conservatives with enacting Brexit during the Locals   Were that so there would not have been 39,000 spoiled ballots almost all demanding Brexit.   There would have been 39,000 extra ticks against the Conservatives.    It seems that most who voted Leave in the Ref stayed at home there being no genuine Brexit party to vote for.   Anyway, its less that two weeks now before voters have a genuine Brexit Party to vote for, so we will get a better indication of the weight of feeling then.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

The Brexit Party (“TBP”) surge is still gathering pace.    Now polls have it with more votes than any two other parties combined, so The Guardian reports.    Change UK?    Well now less than UKIP so Chukka, Soubry and Allen, et al are being soundly chucked.

If the EU elections act as the springboard for TBP, making it the party viewed as the one to wipe out the current crop of useless MPs, the next GE is truly up for grabs, isn’t it?   Especially with Tory Donors and Tory activists moving to support TBP.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Like it or hate it; agree with it or disagree with it, I suspect both Remainers and Leavers would concur that the new Brexit Party Election Broadcast is as slick and as professional as any such broadcasts by any major party.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

*** HOT OFF THE PRESS ***

The Brexit Party surge is still continuing and gathering pace.   The following is YouGov data published in the last hour or so today and has EU Elections voting intentions moving even more to TBP with both Labour and Tory support continuing to fall.  However, more importantly the trend is equally as marked in Westminster Voting Intentions.    Labour and Tories down, TBP up.   If current trends continue polls will soon suggest that TBP could become the largest party in Westminster were a GE to occur.    Numbers in brackets are changes in the last two weeks (i.e. since 3o April).

European Parliament voting intention: BREX: 34% (+4) LAB: 16% (-5) LDEM: 15% (+5) GRN: 11% (+2) CON: 10% (-3) CHUK: 5% (-4)

Westminster voting intention: CON: 24% (-5) LAB: 24% (-5) BREX: 18% (+3) LDEM: 16% (+3) GRN: 7% (+2)

But as some folks around here have said there’s nothing new to debate re Brexit and its all a circular discussion………LOL      Errr… Hello !!!    There is a huge political earthquake going on and as I see it saying there’s nothing to discuss would be like the residents of San Francisco saying on Wednesday, April 18, 1906 that there was nothing to talk about.    The quake of 1906 destroyed 80% of Frisco and the way things are going this political earthquake could well destroy a similar percentage of the current make up of the HoC.

Nothing to see so just move along then………….LOL

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

It is circular. It still the same entranced ideas, spouted by the same people under a differnt flag.

[The VFM Addict]

That depends how you frame the debate, Duke.    As my last post showed I was not talking of either the pros or cons of leaving.   The topic is not constrained tightly to such.   Rather I was talking about how the dynamics of the argument are changing in that there is increasingly the likelihood of the mathematics in HoC changing not merely by personnel changing in elections but also as a result of the current crop altering their positions for survival.    There is a lot of chatter between Tories at present it seems about it being ‘Boris or bust’ for the party on the basis that he is possibly the only one who could recapture the party activist and a large percentage of Leavers who are moving to TBP from the Tories.    Personally I think they’ve missed the boat.   The time for that was months ago or at the latest immediately May reneged on 29 March commitment.   But the 1992 Committee bottled it and decided not to change the rules then.   By the time they do or May goes of her own volition the TBP momentum will be impossible to reverse.

So as I say a Brexit debate is not just about which was right, Leave or Remain.   Its also about what might happen given the dynamics at any point in time and those are far from circular.   Who would have predicted that the Brexit Party momentum would be on the scale it is already and as yet the surge only seems to be increasing by the day.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I’m afraid VFM you are not encouraging a debate, but just spouting pro-hard-Brexit propaganda. There is nothing to discuss until there are hard facts rather than mere opinions.

[The VFM Addict]

Then you misread all I have ever said, Ed.   I have always said (repeatedly) that I would be happy with May’s deal minus the backstop so that we could negotiate our future trading terms with the EU on a level playing field.   Such not arguing for a hard Brexit, is it?

However, if the EU will not play on a level playing field then yes a hard Brexit might be the way to achieving the like.   Because from that point both sides could negotiate unshackled.

It is, is it not a reality that the political dynamics are changing almost by the hour and realistically they could change either way.   May and Corbyn could reach a deal; especially if they conclude that if they don’t the two party cartel of the last 70 years could be shattered and that to neither parties advantage.

If you conclude that discussing the developing and factual dynamics is propaganda so be it.    But is it not true that your post inherently is propaganda in that ir surely seeks to suggest that a hard Brexit is a bad thing.    Of course the comments of all of us will be coloured by our own views regarding the likely outcomes of either no, soft,  moderate or hard Brexit but the position you are forwarding is surely that the situation hasn’t changed in any way the last month or so which is clearly a falsehood.   It has.

As polls have suggested it seems from this thread that it is true that Remainers are less tolerant of the views of Leavers than the reverse, doesn’t it?   Leavers are more often the subject of personal attacks yet remain open to the debate whereas Remainers it seems withdraw from debate even when the dynamics are changing.   Then they wonder why there is such a huge surge in the Brexit Party.   Could it be that not merely the Remainers in Parliament have not been listening but Remainers in general have not?   To intransigent to partake in full debate due to an unwillingness to listen to anything contrary to their own views.   Again this thread heavily suggests such.    I have always been and remain being open eared and willing to listen to all that Remainers say because I recognise that only in such fashion might I learn.    I do not believe myself to be infallible.    But it seems to me, and indeed is it not so given the evidence of this thread, that many here do believe themselves to be such and hence will not listen to a contrary view.

I suspect there are some peeps who read this thread but have never posted.   I’m sure they can see which side is closing its minds to debate and withdrawing; hence which side is most deeply intransigent and entrenched.    I remain here willing to listen, to debate and aware that only in such fashion can ones views evolve rationally.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

It’s not circliare, and you open with “as I’ve always said” lol.

We all have access to polical news outlets. Everyone has put their views across, ‘debated’ the life out of it, and got bored.

[Ed P]

Opinion polls very often get things wrong. There are many external factors that come into play such as the weather. Far fewer elderly (Pro-Brexit) people vote if it is peeing down with rain, and very often there is a degree of self selection in opinion poll results.

When we have a result that is the time to discuss.

[The VFM Addict]

@Ed,

I do agree that there is some merit in your argument that discussion once we have the results of the EU Elections and then the Peterborough elections may be of more worth.   But I’m not sure that, as I believe you are arguing, debate before such is worthless.

Indeed, surely your arguments re how voting may be affected in this case due to the older age profile of Leavers in the matter of Brexit is, is it not, you debating the value of polls specifically in this matter. Do you see what I mean?   Should I say that you are sprouting propaganda as to why the Brexit Party poll surge can be discarded?  Of course I shouldn’t nor would I because they are valid points as valid as is min that there is a poll surge.

@Duke,

Should I respond with pointless pedantry as did you re circularity and say –  What “everyone” is bored?  Such is patently not true because “everyone’ encompasses me and clearly I am not……LOL

You say that we have debated the life out of this.  OK, Duke, can you point me to where the phenomenal crash of Tory support in the last two weeks and the equally startling rise of apparent support for the Brexit Party was debated?   I can’t find it.    What in your opinion caused that?    Were you yourself expecting such a surge and why?    Yes, you may be bored with the subject and related matters but I say again it can’t be circular because the current dynamics have never even existed before.

I also have some problem with your declaration that you are bored with the subject.   Surely if truly bored you would not even have visited this thread.   Yet you have bothered to post twice in little more than the last 24 hours within it.   Fair comment?

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

As a mod I have to. Especally as YOU as well a others, keep having digs, and border on peronal insults at times.

That’s why I have to view this boring thread lol… If you (and others) wasn’t so childish in some of your responces, I wouldnt have to look.

After all its ment to be an adult debate about an important topic between adults.

[The VFM Addict]

I had forgotten that as a mod you were obliged to read.   I stand corrected.

However, I would be fascinated as to which posts or comments of mind you thought were childish; where such were not merely ‘a direct return of fire’ to salvos of such just received.    What I do believe is irrefutably true is the terms often used about Leavers are unquestionable terms of insult and their use not uncommon.    I’m sure that you could list more than half a dozen terms off the top of your head quite easily.    Then try to list the terms of insult and which are truly insults that are directed at Remainers by Leavers.     The main direction and weight of inappropriate fire will surely soon become clear from that exercise.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

The name calling ones that was starting to get Peronal at one point. I’m defo not reading back through. But they are there.

[The VFM Addict]

The Duke wrote:

As a mod I have to. Especally as YOU as well a others, keep having digs, and border on peronal insults at times. That’s why I have to view this boring thread lol… If you (and others) wasn’t so childish in some of your responces, I wouldnt have to look. After all its ment to be an adult debate about an important topic between adults.

Duke, there is a hint of victimisation within that post.   You specify me but then provide anonymity for “the others”.    Can we have some parity and balance, please?    So please identify who “the others” are.

I note also that in your most recent post you again accuse me but offer no evidence.   I assure you I have in this thread lodged no personal insults whatsoever.   That said I can identify numerous posts where the reverse was true and I received direct and specific insults.   I trust that if I collate and reference them, Duke, you are prepared to publicly rebuke them as you appear happy to do with me in; my case even without evidence.

Crickey, how would you react if local Trading Standards arrived on your premises and criticised you for having rats in your kitchen but when you disputed that there were any they said they hadn’t got the time to check but that they are there.    Such is a preposterous approach is it not?

May I suggest that if you have not the time to check if any evidence actually exists before publically lodging allegations against a peep but then when challenged re such, simply say that you haven’t got the time to check; then patently you have not got the time to moderate reasonably, have you.    Fair comment?

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

Posts