Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

LOL ……… Farage has already said The Brexit Party will field Westminster candidates in ALL constituencies other than in N.I.    You really should try to keep yourself up to speed before making assertions that are groundless.   Oh sorry…… I forgot that you’d been spending time of late in Brexit free zones so perhaps that explains why you are out of touch. ?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I look forward to the reception that the Brexit party gets in Scotland!

[The VFM Addict]

So do I.   The political divide is no longer along traditional party lines but across the Brexit divide.   38% of Scots voted Leave.    If such align behind the Brexit Party and Remainers (62%) divide between Tories, Labour and SNP the results could be highly interesting.    As Dacia say, “You do the maths”.   These days FPTP could across the country work in Farage’s favour.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I didn’t realise local election was on today. Probably cos they arnt in Wales. I’ll check back here tomorrow for an update on it.

[Bob Williams]

Just voted. No danger of anyone but our sitting Councillor getting in again.

1 – he is one of only two candidates.

2 – t’other lives in Louth but is an Incomer*. Our bloke is the local farmer I spoke about before.

3 – t’other is Labour and a red rosette around here is an endangered species.

*We have lived here for 19 years and some still see us as Incomers. If they knew my political history they would probably hang me from a lamp post!

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

Hmm. All the parties that pledged to take the country out of the EU have gone backwards. The party dedicated to cancelling Brexit made spectacular gains, their best result for 15 years apparently. Surely in the Brexit bubble this can only be interpreted that the people have sent a message to Westminster? ?

I look forward to seeing the spin that this is in fact really good news for Brexiteers.

[Ed P]

I think the results basically say a plague on both your houses, democracy in the UK is broken so we will vote for parties that support PR.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

Hmm. All the parties that pledged to take the country out of the EU have gone backwards. The party dedicated to cancelling Brexit made spectacular gains, their best result for 15 years apparently. Surely in the Brexit bubble this can only be interpreted that the people have sent a message to Westminster? I look forward to seeing the spin that this is in fact really good news for Brexiteers.

There you go again being a silly billy, Dave, and showing you’ve been spending too long out of the loop.   The Brexit Party did not stand in the locals so there was no rallying point for Leave.   Neither did Change UK which would have impacted the LibDem vote.   All the results show is that no-one believes that the Tories or Labour are Brexit parties.   Tell me, matey, if you were a Brexiteer which party would you have voted for?    UKIP which is too soiled now anyway, stood in very few areas.   A huge number of Leavers simply stayed home or soiled their ballot papers.    And, boy oh boy did they soil them.   Adding the Brexit Party and caling all the others Traitors or Remain Parties.

The EU elections later this month and the Peterborough by-elections will be the first real test and just about everyone on both divides of the Remain-Leave argument is aware of that.     I thought everyone was but I now say ‘just about everyone’ because it is clear that you are so ill-informed as not to know.     Please try to keep up, Dave.  Its not that difficult really.?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I said 4 months ago this mess is a brilliant opportunity for the lib dems. For them Atleast, it’s a shame it wasn’t a GE.

[The VFM Addict]

I agree with that, Duke.   This is the first time I recall that the circumstances and dynamics are such as to offer a real opportunity to break forever the two party cartel we have suffered due to FPTP.    I know folks will say I am nuts but I would not be shocked to see Tories, Labour, LibDems and the Brexit Party all with seats in the high double figures come the next GE and with the Greens no too far behind.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Les.]

I was not eligible to vote 3 years ago, so have just watched from the sidelines, however I have a solution which could honour your referendum result, but in any event lead to a (probable) result.

Mrs. M should call a GE for late July with the agreement of cabinet to try to bring about Brexit, insisting every Tory MP must state his voting intention in next parliament. Then resign and allow an internal coronation.

That would force EVERY candidate to state his intention. That would lead to a most interesting result, probably resulting in a coalition government.

Discuss.

Les.

[Bob Williams]

It’s a simple solution Les and on the face of it, seems a good one. Unfortunately it is simple and you are expecting MP’s to action it: nothing is simple to the simpletons in Westminster. They would immediately look for fifty different ways to complicate it.

The next 12 months are going to be either horrendous for the UK, or the start of something better in our political system. The Establishment is expecting the current state of almost revolution in the country, to die away as it always does. What they are not accounting for, is all the input of young people that is happening at the moment. And the younger they are, the more passionate they are about what is happening to the planet and their future upon it. My 13 yo gdaughter and her peers are really ‘up’ about this and they see Sir David Attenborough as their prophet. No, they have no vote yet, but the half-generation above them do and they are all looking for something better.

The next GE will be interesting, never before have local election upsets had a bearing upon national, it usually calms down into the status quo. I don’t think it will this time: I believe Parliament will be a different place after the next GE. The old ways have to end, our current two-party system is beyond repair and needs replacing with something that works for us all and not just the few. I don’t mean Corbyn’s “For the many not the few” theme song either. His politics are just as jaded and in the past as the Tories’ are. There needs to be a totally representative democracy in this nation.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

Could not Dickens’s famous words have been written today?  They seem so very apt as if to describe Brexit as viewed by by any Brit no matter which side of the divide he/she resides;

‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way’

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I think that passage could relate to anytime in history tbf.

[Ed P]

Imo the most probable outcome of these elections will be to frighten a lot of Conservative and Labour MPs. This could bring urgency to them finding a Brexit compromise which both avoids an EU referendum and emasculates the whole rationale of the so-called Brexit parties.

[The VFM Addict]

I presume you meant an EU MEP election rather than a ‘referendum’.    The error I think you made but which I suspect Bob did not is that this is now far bigger than simply the EU elections.   If May and Corbyn force through a BRINO that will not end the matter.  Indeed, it might even boost still further support for the Brexit Party come the next EU which could be very soon after a BRINO because May has said she will go once that’s done.

I keep stressing to everyone listen to Farage’s words.   This time they are very different.   His campaign also is far slicker also.   His allies are of far greater substance.    And a far, far greater percentage of the electorate are already behind him than were in 2015.      BRINO would only sharpen his steel and that of those around him were it to happen.    It would be the final kick in the teeth of 17.4M who are already showing at the ballot box that they feel betrayed.  Jesus, 39,000 spoiled ballot papers that’s unheard of.    If anyone, be they Tory, Labour, Liberal, Green or Change UK thinks that BRINO would make this go away is entirely out of touch.   The Cameron Referendum Leaflet was clear that a Vote for Leave meant out of the Customs Union.   A May-Corbyn BRINO with a CU would betray the very thing that there is no question whatsoever that all Leave Voters knew they were voting for.   Even you can’t deny that.    May and Corbyn are free to jump out of the frying pan into the fire if they wish.    But if they can’t see that that’s exactly what they would be doing then they deserve it.    BRINO would not solve their problems it would simply magnify them.

The raison d’etre of the Brexit Party does no vanish if there is Brexit In Name Only.   It exists until there is the full Brexit people voted for and that is at the very least No Customs Union.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

You are correct, I did mean the EU election, and doing away with that will halt any Farage momentum. Other than rabid anti-EU types, most would be happy with a Customs Union – especially the DUP.

[The VFM Addict]

I disagree.   As I said the core irrefutable fact is that all Leave voters were aware and knew they were voting to Leave the Customs Union.    If we do not the democracy is betrayed.    This is the core battle more than simply Brexit or put differently Brexit is the standard bearer for Democracy.    This is the reason that so many stalwarts of the Left like Claire Fox and George Galloway are falling in behind Farage; and I guess we all know that were JC and McDonnell not now the Leaders of the Labour party they would be too.

The Brexit Party literature is very clear stating explicitly that its mission is to Change British Politics for good.  It is clear that the Brexit Party is the rallying point not merely for Brexiteers but for all who value democracy.   Were to see see and read some of it you would recognise that the EU elections are merely the the skirmish before the Battle for Westminster; a battle that will be fought even if May & Corbyn connive to avoid the skirmish.

I think that, Ed, you see things through a Remainers reticule (the eye piece not a woman’s handbag).    Why would the 17.4M be happy with a Customs Union given that they voted explicitly to leave such?     I know lots of people who are not, to use your words ‘rabid anti-EU types’.    They find a CU totally unacceptable because one of crucial core purposes of Leave was to enable us to control our own trade deals.    You’ll find very few Leavers who will accept a CU.

As I have said before if even a third of Leavers continue to back the Brexit Party then the two party system will be severely injured.   Polling suggests though that it is more likely to be between a half and two thirds.   Even the Tories haven’t woken up yet.    Their prediction was 800 to 1,000 at worst seats would be lost in the locals.   It was instead, 1,334.    That is the scale of it.    Those figures are similar to the local’s before Major’s crucifixion by Blair.  Scale, Ed, scale.   Feelings are running far more fiercely that back then.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

I see someone has resigned because they don’t like Claire Fox’s attitude to the IRA. It will be UKIP all over again, a one man band with little substance behind anything and a mish mash of anyone who wants to stand being allowed to. Policies? They have extremes wider than the Tiggers who you assured us could never coexist with each other. Ann Widdecombe and a Communist, now that is a broad church. First past the post will, as always, do for Brexit and Change in a GE. Plenty of skeletons in closets will be found as I suspect vetting of candidates is virtually nil.

But a GE looks miles away given there’s now two turkeys who won’t be voting for Christmas rather than one. Lets remind ourselves that the protest vote went to the centre, and a Leave one at that. I realise that neither Brexit nor Change were standing, but why would an ardent Leaver vote for the LD? They didn’t vote UKIP. I wouldn’t vote rather than vote for a Tory or Brexiteer, I ran out of candidates long before X’s in the parish election.

A May – Corbyn agreement may well appear in the next few days for PR purposes but then it’s got to get through Parliament where the same wreckers on all sides will try and scupper it. If they do they will hasten a “Peoples Vote” not No deal. Anything in anyone’s Manifesto has meant little for a while now, except as a convenient excuse. Manifesto’s will be ignored rather than a GE call.

[Bob Williams]

When voting for a Political Party is replaced by voting for a candidate, I will believe that we have democracy.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Author]

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