Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Dave Rice]

I think you’re being overly optimistic about what a protest vote in the EU elections, if it happens on the scale you hope, will have on Westminster. In the unlikely prospect of a Farage government you’d see the quickest soft Brexit deal done and dusted as No Deal simply cannot be allowed to happen.

Even Farage on Sky this morning finally admitted that there will be a high price to pay. When challenged that people didn’t sign up to be poorer, he said you cannot put a price on “democracy” and people would be prepared to pay it. That’s the sort of strategy that gets you slaughtered in a GE but people don’t care about in the Euros. He seems to be pinning his hopes on an effect from a Euro showing affecting Westminster policy, which I agree it will but not how he wants.

The Tories MPs can listen to the grass roots all they like, it won’t change anything but the Tory Party leader who still won’t have the arithmetic in Westminster.

You’re correct, the ERG comment has no link to Farage. It was just a flippant comment on their total lack of any strategic nous whatsoever. Everything they do backfires.

[Ed P]

If Farage does get a massive EU vote then I hope he remembers we still have some major trade deals to cut with the EU, and that he disciplines his MEPs to behave. The last thing we want are 27 peed-off member states each with a veto vote on all trade deals. Remember what happened with Canada’s deal!

[Bob Williams]

A very good point, well made Ed.

However, I do not believe that Farage would have the qualities of patience or statesmanship, to achieve results in those circumstances. Bombast and misplaced patriotism are more his characteristics.

I would rather vote for a candidate representing the Church of The Militant Elvis Party:

http://tinyurl.com/m27snm2

It makes more sense than a vote for Farage, IMHO. I am delighted and proud to report that David Bishop, AKA ‘Lord Biro’ is a man from my birth city of Nottingham, where he has garnered most votes in his interesting political career.

A Nottingham lad. It figures….

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Bob Williams]

Posted twice!

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave, I wasn’t for one second suggesting a Farage Government might occur.    I do believe that the Brexit Party has a good chance of winning seats but certainly not enough to form a government.   Its just that circumstances are now such that FPTP is a hurdle that is easier to clear.  If you read back you will see what I actually said that we seem likely to be seeing an end to the two party system.

I wrote earlier about the Bell-Tatton Effect when Martin Bell stood at very short notice (just 24 days) as an independent beating Neil Hamilton in  one of the safest Tory seats in the country.    I suspect there are a lot of constituencies where due to Brexit the siting MP is disliked even more than Hamilton was in Tatton.    So ‘protest votes’ against an incumbent Westminster MP are capable of overturning even otherwise very safe majorities.     Think about it.   Is it not true that folks are far more angry about Brexit than they ever were about Hamilton.

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[Dave Rice]

I do get your point, I just think you’re being over optimistic. I think Hamilton was a very different scenario, H being a weasly little sh1t with a matching wife and Bell being a well known and liked media figure i.e. there was a big personal aspect to it.

A lot of Tories I know like their sitting MP, that’s why they were chosen. They are torn because they know splitting the vote may well let the opposition in. However in the Euros they can let rip because it doesn’t matter, especially as we will be out *sometime* this year. If we don’t then they want a sceptic in Brussels.

So I think the only thing you’ll be able to read from the Euros and Farage is the country is still torn. In the Euros I’m going to vote for a party that is clearly Remain for the same reasons as people will vote Brexit Party.

If there’s a GE I will vote tactically if there is a chance of the Tory vote being split. It would need 15 – 20% to abandon Conservative and the Labour vote hold up. It may be possible, 15% voted UKIP in 2015, they didn’t stand in 2017. But we’re a new seat created in 2010 and the non Tory vote has been all over the place with wild swings, so predictions apart from a Tory win is real crystal ball stuff. One thing is it’s a big Aerospace industry area with BAE, Airbus, GKN and Rolls Royce having major factories in the constituency. I can tell you a lot of Brexiteers there have changed their minds and we were a Remain area to start with. So if anyone feels they’re not being listened to by their ERG member MP it’s not the leavers.

[Ed P]

I agree Dave – tactical voting in a GE is the way to go, and the only way I will see change in my area.

Incidentally no-one should look for trends in Local Council Elections as most people vote for the person and not a party, in fact I think political parties should be banned at local/district level as they just distort good decision making.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I got a very nice email from the deputy Conservative party chairman for Gloucestershire reminding me of how many potholes they had fixed in the area and urging me to keep the faith in the local elections.

Just 2 small points. 1. I don’t live in Gloucestershire and never have (the closest I got was 6 years in north somerset) and 2.where I DO live, in London, we are not holding local elections ?

[Dave Rice]

I agree Ed, I think I’ve mentioned before the then new Bradley Stoke Town Council was fiercely Independent local people as we had a lot of problems to sort out. But over the years the party machines have taken over.

Here in Stoke Gifford the local running clubs have started reminding people which parish councillors voted against the Park Run, backed by the MP.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

……….. One thing is it’s a big Aerospace industry area with BAE, Airbus, GKN and Rolls Royce having major factories in the constituency. I can tell you a lot of Brexiteers there have changed their minds and we were a Remain area to start with. So if anyone feels they’re not being listened to by their ERG member MP it’s not the leavers. ………..

So tell me, Dave, which ‘Remain’ leaning party will the workers from those companies vote for – (a) if Brexit isn’t sorted by time of a GE – and – (b) if Corbyn does cobble a deal and support May in getting her Brexit Deal through?    My bet is that that bloc of workers will split all over the place – Lib, Labour, Change UK, Greens, etc.    And where will those who want Leave rally?     I’d say that any prediction even a Tory win is crystal ball territory.

As for Bell’s fame having had an effect in Tatton, I agree it did.   That’s the very reason why Farage is prioritising high profile non-politicians as candidates.

You may already know that Paxman, who Voted Remain in the Ref., said this week it was a pathetic thing to do and that he is now a firm Leaver.    I’m not saying he is a Brexit Party candidate.    What I am asking though is could people like him win seats for Brexit if they stood?   I myself am 100% certain they could and would.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

If Corbyn gets through his preferred deal of a Customs Union then BAE etc will be very happy as will the car industry workers. Even the DUP will be happy as it pretty much removes any hard border threat. It will only be those looking for a mythical democracy who will be upset.

[Dave Rice]

Exactly Ed. This is the problem when tending towards extremes. Optimism towards a preferred outcome is fine, but we are still not out, there was no No Deal, TM is still there and the hard liners have been out manoeuvred. All were apparently certainties at some stage. It’s the moderate middle ground that has prevailed even though all it’s got us all is stalemate.

Farage always talks a good talk and knows what buttons to press but there’s a huge dollop of BS when it comes to the detail. Let’s see who these high profile people actually turn out to be, Annunziata Rees-Mogg isn’t really going to connect with the Labour voters up north. She didn’t even do well in Liberal Somerset.

I can’t see media celebrities lining up in any numbers, it would be the kiss of death to their careers. May be some from the twilight of their fame who don’t fancy the jungle route to another 5 minutes in front of the camera? Anyone from business or the establishment is going to be a “who”? from Joe Public. Nah, it’ll be the usual bunch of angry P, M & S brigade.

Part of me hopes I’m wrong though, it could be entertaining ?

[Bob Williams]

I will vote as usual for my sitting District Councillor, who is a conservative. (note small ‘c’) He lives just up the road from me, has been here for several years and attends every meeting, meets everyone who needs him, on every local issue. I have spoken with him several times and have a great deal of respect for his work, his knowledge in so many different fields and his intelligence. He is a successful local farmer who began as a labourer on the farm he now owns, has expanded and modernised. He donates produce to the village Volunteer – run shop and to a local homeless shelter. He has done the latter for many years, well before it became ‘fashionable’. I once asked him if he ever considered life as an MP. A smile spread slowly across his face and he said “No thanks, I like it here amongst my own people, who say what they mean and mean what they say. You are a case in point, Bob.”

He is the antithesis of our local, publicity-hungry ‘lady’ MP, also a Conservative but with a large ‘C’, which could be the first letter of another, more applicable word – ahem! Not a local: Lancashire is quite a distance from Lincolnshire. Not that I have anything against other Lancashire people, I have friends there. But I cast my vote for a person, not a Party, which is one more sign of agreement between VFM and myself. Blimey, that’s twice!

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

Want to see the quality and calibre of Brexit Party candidates?   Well five more were announced today.  You can listen to them and make your own assessments here.

Includes Claire Fox a darling of the Left – so watch out Labour.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>I had to be reminded who she was</p>
Rachel Johnson is standing for change,  she’s at least known by the public.

In certain places I’m sure farage could put the ex tory donkey up. I’m sure they will do well, but it’ll make no difference, all that it’s doing is splitting the leave vote not increasing it. The side effect may be a change in the way we do politics but don’t hold your breath.

[The VFM Addict]

LOL….Dave.  The Change UK candidates are ex-Tory donkey’s just more of the same as now.  NO change whatsoever.

The Brexit Party however is if anything understating the quality of its candidates.  Farage introduced James Glancy as an ex-Marine.    Glancy was in fact in the special forces, serving in the elite Special Boat Service.  He is now a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, and runs a charity dedicated to the preservation of African wildlife.    Compare that CV to the CV’s of Change UK’s (more of the same old) candidates.

Only the Brexit Party are preparing a party that will in the next couple of years actually drain the Westminster swamp.   Truly, Dave, who else is looking like they intend to do that?    Get real, matey.   This is on a whole different scale from UKIP pre-the ref.     That’s what has Tories running in fear.     The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.    If they don’t go for the Brexit that voters and particularly their own party members wanted they will be thoroughly stoned to death politically for a generation.   That’s what is starting to dawn on MPs and the Party faithful who are both moving for a rules change to get May out by the end of June (i.e. change the rule from 12 months to 6 months as regards Leader confidence votes).

There is and will be no split of the Leave vote.  UKIPers are moving in volume from UKIP to the Brexit Party, most UKIP MEPs have already done so.     The Leave vote will be concentrated in the Brexit Party.  The Remain vote scattered across all other parties from Labour to Libs to Change UK.   That’s what prompted Tom Watson’s outburst during the weekend and a major article in The Guardian.   Its Remain that has no rallying point.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[keith with the teef]

If it comes to it and I hope it dont, Farage will get my vote. As I feel at the mo about the whole brexit situation I am actually chewing on the idea of joining the new party.

[Dave Rice]

OMG VFM, you’re using phrases like drain the swamp now!

All this you’re getting excited about is infighting amongst half the country that has no effect on the other half. It’s probably only half of the Leave half. Do you really think Farage appeals to Remain voters? That’s what needs to happen, he can take all the Brexiteers he likes away from wherever, the maths remain the same. And this is the who-gives-a-damn Euros not a GE.

I think you need to calm down a bit and start looking outside your ever extremist Brexit bubble. I’m sure in your circles and the Brexit media this is all very exciting, but that’s the only place it is. For the rest of us it’s a side show and a delight to see the Conservative Party ripping itself in two. It’s a shame they’re trying to take the country with them and making it virtually ungovernable.

The Brexit Party will never be in a position to govern the country but they may well usher in the party they claim to despise the most. Truly Cameron like tactical nous.

[The Duke]

SBS are not fame seekers like other SF brands. And SB man will always be a marine.

[The VFM Addict]

The Duke wrote:

SBS are not fame seekers like other SF brands. And SB man will always be a marine.

I agree 100%, Duke.  What fascinated me was how Farage was respectful of such and didn’t mention the guy’s SBS background.

@Dave,

You really are out of touch with what’s occurring aren’t you.   Especially when you said the Leave vote would be split.   Everyone from Watson to the Guardian is fearful of the reverse.  It is the Remain vote that is split with no identifiable rallying point.     Come the next GE if folks want true change in Westminster will they vote for parties, even new ones like Change UK who are just putting forward the same old type of candidate ?    The MEP elections are merely the springboard for the Brexit Party.   Truly listen to Farage’s dialogue.  Its different this time.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

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