Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Dave Rice]

You can find examples like this for any MP. The thing is if they’re being whipped they will say one thing under collective responsibility. When they can say what they want they are free to say what they believe.

What about all those, including BoJo and Rees-Mogg who flip flop on the House of Lords (depending on what the HoL have decided) and trash TMs proposals only to vote for them a day later. There are very few conviction politicians about (BoJo is not one of them) and the two party and whip system discourages them.

My MP – ERG member – used to be quite the rebel until he got a ministerial job. Since then he’s strictly followed the whip. A keen runner, in Parliament he backed the local council charging a £1 a head for park run. The council head is I believe a big cheese in the local Conservative Association, but I’m sure that had nothing to do with it. He is a councillor in my ward, 3 Tories standing for 3 seats. They’ll all get back in again.

[The VFM Addict]

So let me get this right.  During an extension the EU say we must elect MEPs because during an extension we remain a member of the EU.    But then it seems demands that while still being a member we must have no say over the EU budget or EU trade talks.  Talk about cake and eat it

Staggering !

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave said referring to the Heidi Allen video,

Dave Rice wrote:

You can find examples like this for any MP. The thing is if they’re being whipped they will say one thing under collective responsibility. When they can say what they want they are free to say what they believe. What about all those, including BoJo and Rees-Mogg who flip flop on the House of Lords (depending on what the HoL have decided) and trash TMs proposals only to vote for them a day later. There are very few conviction politicians about (BoJo is not one of them) and the two party and whip system discourages them. My MP – ERG member – used to be quite the rebel until he got a ministerial job. Since then he’s strictly followed the whip. A keen runner, in Parliament he backed the local council charging a £1 a head for park run. The council head is I believe a big cheese in the local Conservative Association, but I’m sure that had nothing to do with it. He is a councillor in my ward, 3 Tories standing for 3 seats. They’ll all get back in again.

I agree that all MPs are like that.  Here’s Yvette Cooper doing the same as Heidi Allen before the 2017 GE.    But to a large extent that was the very point I was trying to make to Bob.   They are all the same and the TIGGERS are no different.   They have formed into a new ‘party’ and to present a cohesive manifesto to the public will expect all their candidates and MEPs/MPs if they get any to toe the party line.   There is nothing new about TIG.   Its simply a group of MPs who for various reasons are disaffected both with and their own parties were disaffected with them.     Soubry’s and Umuna’s voting records are so diametrically opposed (e.g re Austerity) that only their view re Brexit examples any kind of an accord, apart from the desire to remain as MPs and win a seat, any seat.    It is utterly hypocritical that all TIGGERS voice the opinion that we should Remain in the EU and fight for change from within but do the reverse as regards the parties with which they won their current seats.   I disagree entirely with Ken Clarke’s position but he has been honest throughout about what he stood for even before the 2017 GE.   He has more integrity in his little finger than the TIGGERS have all put together.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

The ERG have finally gone totally Tonto, warning that EU that we are Perfidious Albion. They also want to break the WTO rules on Day One with regards most favoured nation. Also there’s the idea of zero tariffs on everything.

I thought they wanted to do Free Trade Deals with all and sundry? This all argues against anyone ever wanting to go anywhere near us. Mind you, why would they need to if we gave them free access anyway? They warn that TMs replacement won’t be bound by anything she agrees anyway.

And they wonder why the EU insist on an insurance backstop? I can’t wait until the media put this lot back in the loonies box to only be wheeled out when you want an extreme quote everyone will laugh at.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave, the difference between the WA and literally any other treaty ever signed in world history except to end a war, is that it does not provide for one of the parties (i.e. the UK) the ability to unilaterally withdraw.    If May’s WA goes ahead with the backstop, plus any other add-ons wanted by Labour, then May and Corbyn seek to bind all other Parliaments for the rest of this century; an action entirely contrary to our unwritten constitution.    This is the point that the ERG sought to impress upon all.   A future parliament could conclude that any treaty signed by May was unconstitutional and hence represented the “exceptional circumstances” that permits withdrawal from otherwise binding international treaties.   Frankly the fact that such includes no unilateral right of exit makes the WA + Backstop so contrary to international conventions that such alone means that “exceptional circumstances” are inherent.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

But how can we be trusted by anyone after this little lot? Not only is the border an issue but also the Good Friday agreement. All we seem to be showing is contempt for everyone inflamed by the crass comments of Francois and Lord Snooty et al. They are becoming the face of Brexit.

Nobody can take us at our word. We will agree to something today and say we can cancel it the day after because we don’t have stability. We are going to be easy meat for Trump because we’ll be so desperate.

I’m not sure the country can take much more of this crap. How much longer can businesses afford the warehousing for everything they’ve stockpiled for an event that hasn’t happened and seems unlikely to any time soon? How will they sell it at anything but a knock down price (probably having paid extra for it) because the demand won’t be there only to probably have to do it all again in 9 months time?

So please no-one say there have been no economic affects because of Brexit because there clearly have been. Everyone I know has had their worst year ever. Holiday bookings are down in both directions and so are staycations. The High Street is going bust, industry is not investing, financial assets are leaving the country. Nobody can plan anything substantial beyond next month because we have no idea what awaits us any further than that or even next week.

At this rate we’ll soon be back to the 70’s. I may have some flairs and a tank top somewhere… actually bondage trousers and safety pin piercings may be more appropriate. It’ll have to be a horizontal Mohican though, nothing left for a vertical one.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave, do not be taken in by the GFA carp being forwarded by the EU.   The backstop that the EU insists on breaches the GFA whereas what we propose does not.   Moreover the EU and Varadkar have planned for, in the event of a No Deal Brexit, a soft techno border away from the physical line.    Yet when we suggest such to avoid the need for a backstop they reject it.    Total duplicity by the EU.

I’ve said it before it certainly is as you suggest the uncertainty that causes the biggest problems for business.   Business will find its ways to cope no matter what the outcome but it needs to know what the outcome is or will be.    I have not the slightest doubt that the Letwin-Cooper Act simply locks in uncertainty for a far longer period that will do far more damage than a No Deal Brexit this Friday would cause.    As BMW said adjusting lead times for JIT manufacturing would cause problems for a month or so but after that no problems.    The nonsense about JIT in general is carp you simply adjust for a longer lead so that the supplies arrive as always just in time.   It may take a month or so to work out how long the new lead must be but after that its sorted.

My own thoughts are that May will be gone within a couple of weeks possibly by the end of this week.    The Parliamentary resistance to No Deal is lessening the single vote majority of the Letwin-Cooper bill showed that.  If the EU set onerous terms for the year long extension as it seems likely they will May can’t survive and I suspect that a majority for No Deal will immediately or very quickly materialise not least because the latest polling in Labour Leave seats will convince a lot of Labour MPs that blocking it will block their own re-election next GE.

The above IMHO is the way its all going but I could be wrong.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Far from Dave being brainwashed, it is obvious that the ERG has a malign influence on your ability to discern fact from wishful thinking.

For example where is your proof – without using ERG carp.

“Moreover the EU and Varadkar have planned for, in the event of a No Deal Brexit, a soft techno border away from the physical line.”

[Dave Rice]

As is the attitude to No Deal softening. Apparently the whole cabinet were told in no uncertain terms exactly what would be the situation, especially with regards security matters, and it put the wind up them big time. It is quite clear that Parliament will not allow No Deal. If there is no extension I expect Revoke over No Deal to be the result.

All anyone bangs on and on about is Trade and especially tariffs. I have always said this is probably the least of our worries but it’s the lowest common denominator the ERG can play on and brush aside the really important things.

If there was a techno border solution the German / French / Swiss customs would be using it, so the question is why aren’t they? If there won’t be issue why have millions been spent on preparations for a non-existent problem? What are all the stock piles for? Why have £900bn of financial assets been moved?

Common bloody sense tells anyone that throwing away 40 years of integration overnight can bring nothing but problems in every aspect of our society that will go on for years.

[The VFM Addict]

@Ed,

Try those Politico. Irish Revenue Commissioners Office, and some video.   So where is the hard border coming from?

@Dave,

WTF !   Come on now Dave its the Remain side that bangs on about the financial consequences not Leavers.   Leavers have always been more inclined to push taking back control.

What stock piles?    The only area where there is evidence of some stock piling is in pharmaceuticals.

I think May would resign before she Revoked.    I can’t see her writing large on the walls of Downing Street – “I, Theresa May, was here promised Brexit means Brexit and then failed.”  

Lastly a Question for All

I have no answer to this and would truly like one.   Why is it that in all other EU states the growing swing towards euroscepticism is mainly coming from the young.   In the UK its the reverse.   Can anyone explain why this is?

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

All your quote says it that as the UK is committed to not having a Hard Border (i.e. complying with EU trade terms), Eire will not spend any money on border posts (at the time of the memo). You can equally say that the UK also spent no money on a Hard Brexit.

It is all ERG BS, and Bojo distortions in taking a comment made months ago and using wishful thinking to match their plans to sabotage the UK and EU. (probably all backed by CIA money as they hate threats to US hegemony).

To answer your comment to Dave. Food has probably been stockpiled the same way it was in Cold War days in regional centres. (I lived near one as a child). Our petrol and diesel reserves are unfortunately very limited having closed most of our refineries and instead are now integrated into the EU 90 reserves (we alone now probably only have 14 days), so they will have dusted off fuel and electricity rationing plans yet again.

[Bob Williams]

Thanks to Laura Kuensberg for drawing my attention to the fact that the extension ends on Halloween. As she says ” You couldn’t quite make it up. The new Brexit deadline is, you guessed it, Halloween. “

Tusk: ” “Let me finish with a message to our British friends: This extension is as flexible as I expected, and a little bit shorter than I expected, but it’s still enough to find the best possible solution. Please do not waste this time.” ”

European Commission President Jean-Claude W Juncker said: “There will probably be a European election in the UK – that might seem a bit odd, but rules are rules and we must respect European law and then we will see what happens.”

All quotes from BBC news today.

I hope that was addressed to British politicians, not British people. Those are the idiots who have caused delay and confusion with a mix of power conflicts and incompetence.

Stand by for TM PM leaving, a renewed power struggle in the Tory party, continuing dissension in Labour. European elections. maybe a GE, Local Government elections already scheduled. Is 6 months long enough? Merkel wanted more, Macron wanted 6 months. The Germans continue to shrink from appearing to be in control, when it is their (and our) contribution that keeps the whole EU vehicle’s wheels turning. When we leave, Germany will bear the brunt. Their economy is currently dipping.

We live in Interesting Times. Please take me back to 1950, things were simple then.???

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

There are stock piles everywhere! In the local press yesterday the Olive supplier to the UK has 6 months worth. Manufacturers on BBC this morning talking about theirs. The recent better than expected final results – wow look at how much people are buying! – was put down to stock piling and not an economic miracle. Warehousing is in short supply. “LEIGHTON BUZZARD, England (Reuters) – In a vast warehouse complex 40 miles north of London, staff are wrestling with ways to cram in more goods after a surge in demand from companies building stockpiles ahead of Brexit. “Almost every day we receive another inquiry regarding Brexit,” Sales Director Jayne Masters told Reuters. “We have customers queuing up to move goods in.””

There are queues of container ships waiting to get in to Rotterdam etc. We were warned about this by Hikvision with regards ordering cameras, especially anything unusual.

There will not be a No Deal but a No Brexit is starting to look possible. If the hard line Brexiteers really want out of the EU they are going to have to accept a much softer deal, which they were all for not so long ago.

If that’s done quickly I can’t see much problem selling it to the country, both sides will be relieved I think and have got a bit of what they wanted (out for the leavers and not too far out for remainers). But if it gets more hard line all it’s going to do is polarise the country even more.

But who knows, this could be the moment the Conservatives press the self destruct button and shrink to the blue rinse brigade party. They’re already half way there. I wish I knew which way Labour were heading. The only parties we can be sure of are those are all in or all out and they don’t stand a scooby of getting meaningful numbers of MPs.

[The VFM Addict]

What would you call meaningful numbers of MP’s, Dave?

I also think one must consider the personal platforming of individual candidates from the two main parties.   In non-London marginals outcomes could well hinge on candidate’s Brexit credentials.    A committed Leaver from either party would have an edge in those areas that heavily voted Leave.    I do believe that a GE would alter dramatically the current mismatch between what the public wants and what parliament wants.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Just to add to Dave’s comment the ONS has warned that stockpiling affected GDP and post Brexit resolution there would be a large negative impact on GDP and employment as stocks are unwound.

[Dave Rice]

UKIP had a single MP (a defector at that) yet the country voted to leave. They had 14% (?) of the popular vote too. I’m not sure I can come up with a more impressive scenario than that!

I really think you’re getting over enthusiastic about things. There just doesn’t seem to be that groundswell you could feel when Major had his chops bust by Blair. Hardline Brexiteers are getting all excited, the rest of the country just seems fed up. I think they’re more likely to just not vote, especially those that never did before and voted for leave at the referendum.

The casual conversations I have revolve around people wanting Parliament to just get on with it and decide something, anything. These days people rarely say which way they voted and blame the incompetence of the whole place and don’t seem to single out any party or faction apart from TM. She should have had a consensus plan from day one, they all assumed she had as that seemed the obvious thing to do. Having voted they ignored all the boring crap coming out of Westminster and bundled it in the bloody politicians arguing box. They only noticed when it all went TU and crashing out became a possibility.

So now they’ve gone on holiday, the poor loves. So we can look forward to a pointless and expensive Euro election and a summer of scheming. TM can fall on her sword but the numbers won’t change. A hard line leader still won’t be able to force anything through a hung Parliament.

[The VFM Addict]

Just to be accurate on past figures in the 2015 GE UKIP secured over 3.8 million votes (12.6% of the total).     Given that 17.4M voted leave then if only a third of them stick to their guns at the next GE we would see 5.8M votes but these might be split between UKIP and Farage’s new Brexit Party.    Certainly the latter once known generally to be Farage’s party would have the edge name wise on the ballot paper.   Plus as I understand it he’s setting up household name individual’s as candidates with almost all of them not currently being politicians.  That’s another big plus in the current climate.   Finally, the distribution demographics are very different from previously.    There is little match between areas that once had large numbers of UKIP councilors with those areas that voted Leave in the ref.

Finally,  a hung Parliament is just that hence one doesn’t need much of a swing to change things significantly, which is very different from the swing needed when one side already holds large sway.   There are already quite genuine noises of some Tory MP’s considering abstaining if Corbyn calls a vote of confidence and even if the DUP alone abstained as it might we’d have a GE anyway.

Its all to play for.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Bojo found guilty of lying unrecognisably distorting the facts to the public again!

Link

[Dave Rice]

The problem is there is never any come back. The same lie was repeated many times by other politicians too. The people who’s newsfeed contain nothing but these sorts of sources start repeating it as fact.

But I see we are invited to view Bojo as “clearly comically polemical”. May be there needs to be a strap line on all of his future columns, “Boris’s hilarious take on this weeks Brexit news” would clearly indicate that what follows should not be treated seriously.

They should be made to publicly correct their errors themselves, that would stop a lot of it. If the CEO of a business did this sort of thing they’d find themselves in real trouble.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Bojo found guilty of lying unrecognisably distorting the facts to the public again! Link

IPSO ruled it was wrong for BoJo to claim there was polling evidence that a no-deal Brexit was the public’s preferred option.   It was IPSO that was making a false claim.  Shame on the Telegraph’s legal team for not shooting IPSO down in flames.   I could have done that in seconds.

Boris, writing early in the New Year was relying and fully entitled to rely on the Opinium Poll that had just been published.    The BBC even published it here.    No Deal thrashed every other option.   It was therefore entirely correct for BoJo to claim there was polling evidence that No Deal was the preferred option.   Because there was!

I trust you will, Ed, accept that on this occasion at least, BoJo was correct and very unfairly and incorrectly maligned by a clearly biased negligent IPSO.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

Posts