Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

@ Ed,

I have stressed before and will stress again that I, like many others, am convinced that the backstop breaches the GFA.    I have little doubt that the courts will rule such and the early stages of seeking a judicial review are under way.   If the courts rule it does breach and that ruling occurs after the WA is ratified on both sides then there is no question that Art62 Vienna can be both legally and morally applied.   It would not be a case of us reneging on a treaty it would be a case of us having to withdraw to protect the GFA which pre-dates the WA.   The GFA is of course something which both sides (us and the EU) have been vociferous in holding sacrosanct.   The EU would have great political difficulty, given its position to date, to insist the WA backstop is applied once it became clear that doing so would breach the GFA.

As something of an aside I suspect the EU has no real grasp of how difficult it would be to set up a hard border in N.I. were it to seek to force Eire to implement one.   This makes interesting reading.

@ Dave

I understand your position and thoughts re smuggling.    But for main trunk road crossings of the N.I. border a technological solution is possible as is being set up for Calais (see my link earlier in this thread).  Yes, minor road smuggling will still occur on the N.I. border.   But that is unlikely to be and preposterous for the EU to suggest it to be such a major threat to the integrity of the EU & CU.   One thing is sure and that is that it is unlikely to be on anywhere near the scale that occurs every single day along the EU’s southern borders.   Such is indeed also how most illegal immigration occurs.    How many landing points and marinas are there along the EU’s southern border?   My guess would be in the high tens of thousands.

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[The VFM Addict]

Oh I forgot……….    I can’t see that withdrawing from the WA would somehow suddenly establish that we don’t keep our word.    The folks in Westminster who run the country have already shown these last two years that they don’t keep their word; especially our Prime Minister.    If the UK seeks to retain any standing whatsoever in the world it must now demonstrate that it values democracy.    It is preposterous for MP’s to hold they have a mandate via our FPTP electoral system and then ignore the will of the people which considered using that identical metric would have delivered a huge mandate for leave.    I have not posted this picture before and its been around for a long time so you may have seen it but it remains relevant:

s

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[Bob Williams]

I’m just wondering if this Topic will make 100 pages before the whole thing goes TU, one way or another.

?

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Cynically I do not think that any Western-style democracy (except maybe Eire and Iceland) gives two figs for any perceived breaking of promises made to an electorate, as they commonly do it excusing it by a ‘change in circumstances’.

[edit] btw VFM it would sometimes be helpful  to non-ERG followers to get a Context sub-heading, e.g. perhaps for this one:  ‘Legal issues may break Backstop’.

I think that would have helped both Dave and I to understand the context for your post. I’m afraid that I found it as something that had ‘come out of left-field’, and  my initial reaction was a puzzled  ‘wtf are Hard Brexiteers playing at now’?

[Ed P]

[edit] Sorry perhaps the suggested Subhead should have been :

‘Legal issues may remove backstop and invalidate May’s WA’

[The VFM Addict]

Good Idea about Sub-Headings, Ed, but not sure where to put them?   Perhaps just a bold line to a post.  So here goes.

** Political UK Consequences of May’s WA Being Ratified ***

As I typed that subheading it suddenly came into my mind that everything May touches is RAT’ified.   But humour aside, I do wonder where politics, especially Tory Party politics will go over the next few years.    My view is that where Major forced through Maastricht thereby putting a sticking plaster on a boil in his party and to a lesser degree one in the country at that time, May forcing her deal through at this point seeks to put a sticking plaster on a rancid, pustular, gangrenous ulcer which grew both of Major’s boil and her added infection of it; not merely in her party but now in the entire country.

It is an absolute fact that May is forcing through a deal that a significant majority of the UK electorate  (both Leavers and Remainers) do not want and even more importantly one that 75% of her own party’s grassroots members do not want.   I believe therefore that pressure in both the country and especially in her party to evade, escape, reject or renege on the WA, whichever term one favours, is absolutely certain to be huge.   A True Brexit Party is certain to emerge, although I suspect that will take a couple of years to fully blossom, will snap increasingly, viciously at the Tory heels.   Especially if as seems likely the Trade Negotiations will see us being put to the sword by the EU given that we have disarmed ourselves by paying the £39B up front; voting never to leave No Deal and arming them with threat of the backstop.

How will the Tory party react?   To my mind the Tories will have no option but to swing hard right to a Brexiteer Leader.    BoJo is again surging very dramatically as Tory voters’ choice and even more so as the grassroots membership’s favorite for Leader.    A YouGov poll for The Times (published today) asked Conservative voters who they think would make a good Leader; 41% said Boris compared to 28% for Michael Gove, 27% for Jacob Rees-Mogg, 26% for David Davis, 25% for Sajid Javid and 24% for Jeremy Hunt.   That gives BoJo a significant lead over his closest rival, Gove.   And remember Gove, was the one who first suggested reneging on the WA.   It is almost reaching the point where the Parliamentary Party dare not leave BoJo out of the final two candidates put to the membership.  Immensely so so in that JRM has said he will not stand but will back BoJo.    But then equally the Tory MPs will know that to put BoJo as one of the final two effectively makes him leader because the grassroots will pick no other if he’s in the run-off and backed by JRM.

So where, folks, do you all think the Tories will head as May exits leaving the sepsis that she has so determinedly exacerbated behind her?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[JayCeeDee]

The VFM Addict wrote:

BoJo is again surging very dramatically as Tory voters’ choice and even more so as the grassroots membership’s favorite for Leader.

I said that as soon as I saw his smooth un-ruffled new haircut in the Commons for one of the votes this past week!!

[Ed P]

Thank you for considering a sub-heading for the mortals who do not walk in the halls of the ERG. As far as positioning – Maybe ahead of the new thoughts you are introducing. That would give us some context we can research or understand.

With respect to your question:

“So where, folks, do you all think the Tories will head as May exits leaving the sepsis that she has so determinedly exacerbated behind her?”

Exactly where Cameron feared it would go, for good or ill.

[The Duke]

It will march Right. As far as they can push it.

[The VFM Addict]

That’ll just be trying to keep up with the Jones then, because most EU states are already on the march to the right as this years EU elections will no doubt confirm.    I hate to say this because I doubt most around here will agree but I truly doubt that most European nations/people would ever have begun marching right again were it not for the political ambitions of the EU.    I don’t think a purely trading bloc would have caused such.

I share entirely Tony Benn’s view that the EU is “the most bureaucratic and terrifying system in the world”.     I find this speech in particular the most compelling and the most consistent with my own views although this one to the Oxford Students Union a year before his death is perhaps the most direct.    The argument that Leavers are from the far right has always been wrong and as I have said many times in Brexit related threads I am generally somewhat left of centre.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Oh, I forgot.   How many of us here recall David Dimbleby and Tony Benn looking as young as they do here; the classic Tony Benn v Roy Jenkins EU debate during the 1975 referendum.   It is frightening how right Tony Benn was even back then.    Compare what he said then in 1975 to the events of the last few years since his death.    I do wonder how Hilary Benn can be so very different or is it that he saw that his father’s integrity and genuine conviction were virtues that are far too heavy to carry if you want to climb to the top of the greasy pole?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

Going back to the statistics poster, this is what happens when you have referendums in a representative democracy. Square peg, round hole. The only “will of the people” is what parliament decides it is and why referendums aren’t legally binding. It’s why a second referendum will be just as bad as the first no matter the result as it’s not a binary issue. The only thing in my mind that could work is a General Election with Leave (or not) Plans clearly defined.

First past the post emboldens MPs in safe seats to do what they want, which is why I keep listing the Brexiteer MPs in Remain constituencies when the opposite is touted as being hypocrisy. My MP is an ERG member but he has changed his voting habits since becoming a minister. He turns up to local running events, which is great, but he never actually applies like the public does (my wife is on the Sole Sisters 10k committee, it sells out in 48 hours) he just rocks up on the day. But he defended the cancellation of the Park Run at Little Stoke in Parliament. The local councillors involved are very influential in the local Conservative Association. Probably tells you all you need to know.

The same sort of thing is happening all over the country in every party. I even know the Liberals can get quite nasty at times ?

It will always be thus unless we change the constitution but Westminster turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. That’s also why we won’t get a GE and people like the DUP can be bribed with a billion that didn’t exist for education, etc.

Politics is the only game where you are actively campaigning to put other members of your organisation out of a job and remain in yours as long as possible.

[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

Oh, I forgot. How many of us here recall … the classic Tony Benn v Roy Jenkins EU debate during the 1975 referendum. or is it that he saw that his father’s (apparent) integrity and convictions …? Corrected

As it happens I once had to go to Benn’s Office to meet him and of course saw the infamous Coal Urn that he literally forced the miners to give him, and showed every visitor. Of course I was not there politically, but this was in the days when Energy was in his remit and I worked closely (not lobbied) with one of his advisors on emergency distribution plans. The Civil Servant who’s name I have now quite forgotten warned me not to be taken in by Benn’s charisma and said he had ‘feet of clay’. He would not expand on the comment, but I subsequently took all Benn’s pronouncements with a pinch of salt.

[The VFM Addict]

I assume you are using the term ‘feet of clay’ in that it was used by the Civil Servant; especially given that you said he would not expand on it.     I’m also not sure in what sense the CS was using it.  I’d need to know more about the CS himself before I could construe his meaning with any confidence.    Some people use the term to mean slow getting around to actually doing anything others use it for some other character flaw.

Of somethings I am sure and that is that Benn was not of the right nor was he an individual who longed for the return of Empire.    Moreover his words re the EU being anti-democratic are spot on in that the EU’s structure is exactly what he based his arguments on.    The further one moves the seat of power from the electorate the less democracy is able to exist.

I chuckle and shake my head when ‘The People’s Vote Campaign’ or other Remainers marches take place.    Protest marches I believe to be a fundamental right in a democratic country but tell me how many of those marchers would be present if they had to march to Brussels or Strasbourg?    MPs surely also realise that membership of the EU both gives them a shield to hide behind and/or a scapegoat to blame.   Or are they simply like common ‘jobsworths’;  Love to help but can do nothing about it them’s the rules.    The EU increasingly shifts accountability to some distant citadel.    Remember the EU plan is for a common fiscal policy, common foreign policy, etc., etc.     Less real work for the Westminster mob and less accountability; ’twas the other 27 that did it, not me guv.   

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

No – I think it fair to talk in riddles to an extent as the Civil Servant (CS) told me in confidence about certain Union Relationships with Benn. He was basically warning me to distrust him, and not reveal stuff I had discussed with the CS. Perhaps ‘feet of clay’ was the wrong descriptor, but it came to mind as I was writing the paragraph as a way of describing Benn’s otherwise hidden dealings. Obviously he fleshed all this a little but I won’t as I do not think recollections such as mine are a fair way to remember someone. Equally however he should not be placed on a pedestal or spotlit glass cupboard like his urn.

[edit] the following story may or may not be true, as I cannot get cross-links to my memory.

I was told by another CS in the coal sector that ‘The Urn’ was infamous in the tower accommodation of the DTI. Apparently the urn was presented by miners to Benn as a grateful acknowledgement of his help to the miners. It was installed with great fanfare on a small spotlit table – unfortunately the next morning Benn walked into his office forgot the urn and broke the bloody thing. Apparently once carved coal was broken in those days it was impossible to cobble a repair, so Benn lifted up the phone and ranted down the phone and then insisted the miners carve him a second one! Which was the one I saw safely locked away in a large wall cupboard.

Silly tricks of memory some things come out of the woodwork but I cannot even remember the name of the DTI tower even though I nearly lived in it for a month.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I have not mentioned this before because frankly I couldn’t be bothered to type it but …

In the mid 90’s my job often took me behind the scenes at the offices of the European Commission when they were at Storey’s gate.

Away from the public areas the walls were plastered with EU mission statements. Every one of them aiming at a united states of Europe.

I was usually escorted around by a nice lady called Heidi and one day I mentioned to her that I thought the EU was just a trading block.

She looked at me as if I was mad and then said “you can think as you like”.

[Dave Rice]

I don’t think that’s a secret. It was mentioned here way back when.

A Federal Europe makes a lot of sense to me. We would certainly have much more local government and accountability than we do now under Westminster. It works for the USA, Canada, Brazil, India, Australia, Mexico, Germany, Switzerland, Austria etc.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

It sort of works here dave.

We already have parish council level, county council level, country level (except for England) and national (federal) level. We just don’t need another level !

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

By the way

There isn’t an English assembly because it would constantly be demanding to be allowed to keep more of its own money.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

On a judicial level we have county courts, the high court and the supreme court. We REALLY dont need a supreme supreme court.

[Author]

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