Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The Duke]

Be fair. Lead by unicorns.

Even from the other side of the fence. I agree it’s a mess. And come may in the next election, The far right extremists could become a serious issue.

[Dave Rice]

Well everything and anything is still a possibility.

(I think) I said I thought we would end up with her deal as TM’s only weapon was scaring the ERG / DUP into voting for it when the can got kicked as far as it would go and the moderates finally got fed up and found some balls.

We seem to be moving in that direction but the votes are either so extreme either way i.e. a drubbing or fag paper close, that I’m sticking with the prediction anything is still possible, especially now the moderates are revolting (a bit) and you can see the DUP sphincters wobbling. If they crumble the ERG will follow, their ladder to climb down will have appeared.

I was at a Hikvision roadshow today and Brexit got mentioned with regards deal or no deal. Nothing about costs as it’s still all up in the air, it was lead times. They’re already subject to a weeks delay as their ships (from China) are queuing up waiting to get into port, IIRC that’s Rotterdam for them. But if extra paperwork is required they expect the same sort of delay now being caused by stock piling preparing for no deal.

No panic, but if anyone needs large numbers of run items or special order kit, give them lots of notice. I wonder how much has been spent on surplus kit, the warehouse space for it and the wages of everyone involved? Ignore any biased figures, common sense tells us it’s a lot.

So there is a cost attached to No Deal even though it hasn’t happened and a cost to Brexit even though it hasn’t happened either. No predictions required but of course we can all argue as to precisely how much.

[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

I’m sorry but if anyone thinks the route we are now set on will leave us economically better off than would a hard Brexit I am certain they are wrong.

I will not debate the macro economics as neither of us have enough hard information on the impacts on our existing exports to the EU.  What I would say is that there would be huge economic and social impacts on certain sectors of the UK economy. Sheep farmers for example.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I won’t debate the macro’s either but I will say that we can set subsidy’s suitable for our own economy if we just leave.

 

[The VFM Addict]

I dispute not a word that you said there, Ed.   This is why I always believed it vital that May play hardball in the negotiations.   Anyone who makes clear that they are not prepared to walk will always get chewed as indeed May was.    The EU do fear a No Deal and would have been prepared to offer a balanced FTA along the lines of Canada ++; indeed even Tusk extended such an offer.

So, Ed, where are we today?  The EU know we will pay them £39B no matter what and will accept literally anything they demand because we are too fearful to ever walk away.   Human nature; and the burden to get the best deal they can for their remaining members; and the desire to demonstrate that no-one can leave their bloc on reasonable terms; all leaves no question whatsoever in my mind that we will get utterly atrocious terms during the trade deal negotiations to come.     That will have huge economic and social impacts not merely on certain sectors of the UK economy but on all sectors.    Such will be truly high octane fuel to enable the extreme right to light fires in the UK like never before.   It was this I always feared and why I was so adamant that a clean break and short term pain was worth bearing.    I believe it is inevitable if May’s deal passes that at some point we will renege on the WA relying on Art 62 of the Vienna Convention which at best is weak argument anyway.   When we do the the wrath of Europe will be far, far greater than it would have been had we hard Brexited today.

I believe history is clear that a truly bad deal ultimately and inevitably results in severe conflict be that at its least social and political and at the worse military.   I simply cannot condone the tactic of using the possibility of Art 62 Vienna as a means of cajoling the DUP and ERG into supporting May’s deal because such of itself gives licence to the UK subsequently reneging on the WA.

Future history I have no doubt will look back to today and wonder how our politicians (metaphorically) not having the courage to bite the bullet now are instead going down a route certain to result in a far more devastating barrage of bullets from all angles in the years to come.    I severely dislike as do many here, Donald Trump.   But of one thing he is utterly correct.   At times one simply has to walk away not matter the problems such may precipitate because not being prepared to has far more severe consequences.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Someone just pointed out a fact that I missed.   Don’t know why but it made me chuckle but it is madness personified so perhaps that’s it.     In last nights vote on an extension the Brexit Minister made the closing remarks recommending to the house the Government Motion for an extension.   Following such he marched into the division lobby to vote against it.  You truly couldn’t make it up, could you.

The duplicity in the house is not merely visible these days but it seems to be literally flaunted with aplomb.

Oh and I forgot, the Tory Chief Whip rather than support the government position abstained.    ?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[keith with the teef]

All very disapointing. Looking away from the embaressment that is the UK government. ?

[The VFM Addict]

You know the grassroots Conservative Party are VERY, VERY ANGRY when this video appears on the Conservative party’s grassroots website.   ENJOY.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

There is noting good going form this mess, wrhter we leave or not now. We are a joke. If we are not already, the UK will become a meem.

The one positive out of this mess, is it has highlights what a sh=tshow parliament is. And changes are needed. The contry is pissed, and anger is growing by the day.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

I won’t debate the macro’s either but I will say that we can set subsidy’s suitable for our own economy if we just leave.

Just perhaps a fact you should note, export subsidies are not something you can apply willy-nilly as they can in fact be illegal under WTO anti-dumping rules (you cannot sell below cost for example). Also subsidies would have to be applied very quickly by our creaking bureaucracy to avoid the Channel ports being blocked by decomposing Welsh lamb!

As always the Devil is in the detail that is why this subject is too difficult on which to make accurate statements.

Yes we could for example access a flat payment to each Welsh farmer to support them back to CAP plus EU grants level, but they would need at least part of that next month which would mean another DWP style disaster in the making. Someone would also need help in quickly finding an alternative outlet for all the lamb. Our broken democracy cannot act quickly enough to set up and pay such schemes this year, and maybe not even next year.  That is the hard reality of crashing out without a deal – some people will suffer life changing/threatening hurt.

It would need a ‘Yes Minister’ ‘brave and bold’ politician (or perhaps Bojo)  to brush aside any resulting concerns and their impacts on  the next election!

[The Duke]

In regards to the farmers and the EU subs, I think they have had it to good for too long. The whole subsidiary should of been on a sliding scale to help them with any transition. 40 years is long enough. I can imagine we now have 3rd gen farmers, picking cheques up for the most minamal effort.

I bet there is a large percentage of them, that have no idea how to farm properly and economically. That’s a sweeping statment, but I bet there is some truth it. Why would I invest time, effort and money learning new skills that I thought I’d never need.

I half expect if we do drop out, they couldn’t produce half of what would be expected of them. They would all be knocking on the pms door for massive grants to modernise. Farming equipment isn’t cheap. Million qiud harvesters etc..

A bit of a rant, sorry.

[Ed P]

I’m sure there is some truth in what you say, but such changes have to be phased in, Otherwise unjust pain will be caused. We do not have time to do it properly, and a bunch of clowns who I would not trust with anything.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I am now well read on the WTO rules Ed.

And I didn’t even mention them !

[Bob Williams]

The Duke wrote:

In regards to the farmers and the EU subs, I think they have had it to good for too long. The whole subsidiary should of been on a sliding scale to help them with any transition. 40 years is long enough. I can imagine we now have 3rd gen farmers, picking cheques up for the most minamal effort. I bet there is a large percentage of them, that have no idea how to farm properly and economically. That’s a sweeping statment, but I bet there is some truth it. Why would I invest time, effort and money learning new skills that I thought I’d never need. I half expect if we do drop out, they couldn’t produce half of what would be expected of them. They would all be knocking on the pms door for massive grants to modernise. Farming equipment isn’t cheap. Million qiud harvesters etc.. A bit of a rant, sorry.

The majority of Lincolnshire (and I suspect all East Anglian) farmers have large farms and have formed combines over the years. The majority are profitable due to economies of scale: they also help out other farmers all over England and Wales when they can, such as during the Cumbrian and Somerset floods, when many farmers here cooperated to supply and transport hay and Kale to those who had no winter feed. They also share agricultural machinery costs by buying the big stuff between several farms. They are going to be mostly unaffected by the loss of EU subs, and in any event the government has committed to replacing it with a British government equivalent. A lot of Lincolnshire & East Anglian grain goes to Europe, but they are also negotiating with other countries to find other exports. Probably why 90% of Lincs farmers voted Leave?

Remember where your food comes from! Lincs & E. Anglia could support the whole country.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

The mood is moving rapidly to May’s Deal (i.e. the WA) to take us out of the EU and then Art62 Vienna to take us out of the May’s Deal.     Legal advice is moving that way although many suggest that while legally viable it would politically be most unwise.    I’m sure they are right.     That will result in a mess which, I have not the slightest doubt,  will make a hard Brexit right now look like childs play compared to it.  But it gets worse.

The route to Art62 V. exit from the WA/Backstop lays in unforeseen circumstances or consequences occurring.    One unforeseen circumstance is acknowledged as being that it has caused huge civil and social unrest.   Yeah right ? !!!    Publicise that and one is tantamount to issuing an invitation to riots on a scale equal to or greater than the poll tax ones.   Talk about giving the far right high octane fuel to light fires it seems to me this gives them the matches to go with it.

I’m drawn back to the old joke that the EU was playing chess but May was only capable of playing Chequers.    Personally I’m not sure the whole HoC working in unison could play a decent game of chess.    The end game here is entirely predicatable because the opening and middle game were played so very badly.   But it seems to me that the HoC cannot even collectively see what’s coming despite it rapidly becoming ‘kin obvious if one studies rationally the state of the board.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I’m afraid I do not understand the relevance of needing to break Article 50 – why, what does that achieve other than  politically inflaming both the DUP and the IRA?

Unfortunately Irish sectarian/religious politics, have never made things easy.

You talk of the Far Right as something to possibly fear, but I would also worry about somehow dragging in the IRA (Not really Far Left?). They have already set their small markers. I think as a result that I’ll avoid Weatherspoons pubs in future as their owner has recently publicly stated his position and backing as a Hard Brexit supporter.

However, I think your summary of a fscking potential disaster is unfortunately correct, whichever leave option is taken.

Roll on the next four years (plus) of trade negotiations just to help us forget!

 

 

[The VFM Addict]

Not

Ed P wrote:

I’m afraid I do not understand the relevance of needing to break Article 50 – why, what does that achieve other than politically inflaming both the DUP and the IRA? Unfortunately Irish sectarian/religious politics, have never made things easy. You talk of the Far Right as something to possibly fear, but I would also worry about somehow dragging in the IRA (Not really Far Left?). They have already set their small markers. I think as a result that I’ll avoid Weatherspoons pubs in future as their owner has recently publicly stated his position and backing as a Hard Brexit supporter. However, I think your summary of a fscking potential disaster is unfortunately correct, whichever leave option is taken. Roll on the next four years (plus) of trade negotiations just to help us forget!

Not sure I follow you there. Ed.   Why would the DUP become inflamed if the UK escaped a signed WA at a later date by invoking Art 62 Vienna thereby eliminating the dreaded backstop?    This seems to be the very argument being used to get them to support May’s WA.   In effect – Don’t worry about the backstop we can tear up the whole WA if we want to.    Such was the weasel’s (i.e. Gove’s) position almost from the start.  He backstabs everyone and everything else so why not the WA.

The point that is all too often forgotten is that there will be no hard border in N.I. unless the EU forces Eire to set one up.   This is true irrespective of whether there is a No Deal Brexit now or a pull out from the WA at a later stage.

I’m not sure how to interpret your last sentence.   But I assume it was being sarcastic and if so we are in total agreement.    It is the Trade Negotiations once the WA is passed in the HoC that will inflame opinion; certainly on the side of Leavers and in that I am sure the EU will try to screw us in every way may well p’off a whole lot of Remainers also.

Yep I think for certain that we are going to hell in a handcart.  So it will only be the Green party who have remotely anything to smile about.  After all, handcarts burn no fossil fuels and are eco friendly.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Well maybe we have two different views of Ulster/ Eire relationships.

In my simple view the GFA solved a lot of huge problems and all sides wish to keep it. The IRA do not want anything that differentiates favourably towards the UK on the Ulster side of the border and the converse for the DUP. They all want a quiet life. An EU/UK trade bloc solves all that at a stroke, but means differences set in when/if ever we manage to cut a trade deal with anyone more meaningful than Fiji.

Your apparent  no back-stop scenario probably requires us to go down the zero tariff route, but first I think that someone had better honestly set out the negative implications of that to the electorate. I think the no EU imposed border is wishful thinking. They have shown that protection of the EU community is a red line to them. They have not buckled yet, why should they do so later. Yes it will be an EU hard border, but the IRA will blame the Brexiteers, and maybe the DUP.

[Dave Rice]

Deliberately leave a back front door for smuggling open then blame the people affected when they complain. Nice.

We have already signalled we are willing to break WTO rules on the very first day!

Then there’s Article 62. WTF? How will that ever apply?

Walk away without paying your debts if you don’t get what you want.

Who the hell is going to want to deal with us when we behave in such a way? How can we be trusted to keep our word?

We are turning into a laughing stock, Trump must be thinking how easy it’s going to be to do us over.

[Ed P]

I apologise to @VFM. I am muzzy-headed with a May throat so I just could not get the context of his initial post.

I now think I see that Article 62 is there to offer comfort to those opposing the backstop, that come whatever, the Backstop can be broken. In that case I think that Dave is correct, there are limits to how devious the UK can be without earning the name ‘Perfidious Albion’ all over again and being treated as a diplomatic pariah.

I used to be asked to act as a business go-between between a certain Arab country and India as they found that they could not trust India. We really do not want to get into that position.

[Author]

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