Forumite Members › General Topics › Politics › Europe › Brexit now = CETA +/-?
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Dave Rice.
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February 20, 2019 at 2:45 pm #30956
Business Investment trending down – this is an expression of confidence. FDI directly reflects cheap Sterling, the figures do not look so good in USD. Many of the recent quarterly trends have been on the negative side.
Confidence currently is very low, and money is tight so it is relatively easy to strike bargains at the moment. (I just got a 20% discount on our summer holiday accommodation in Cornwall for that reason)
As I said, it cannot be painted as a glowing vindication of the Brexit process to date, as it ain’t over till the inept woman sings! However neither can it yet be painted as a disaster.
February 20, 2019 at 5:33 pm #30982For some light relief from this heavy thread, I thought I’d post this –
Jamie Driscoll, Labour’s Momentum backed candidate for North of Tyne Mayor personifies the problem Labour has in heavily Leave voting areas. You can almost hear the backchatter inside his head as he is interviewed by ITV’s Joe Pike – ‘I must not answer one way or the other…. I must not answer one way or the other…… I must not answer one way or the other’. Poor lad. Go one way Momentum will crucify him go the other and the voters will. It could almost be a comedy sketch. Take a look.
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February 20, 2019 at 6:13 pm #30985You have to feel sorry for the guy. You are correct tho, a few years ago this would be a sketch in the ‘it’d not the 9 o’clock news show’ or whatever it was called.
February 20, 2019 at 6:30 pm #30990Give him a few years, he’ll get the hang of not answering anything in a glib fashion. The real issue is… What you’re asking me is… The (opposition) are (slag off)… Insert today’s vox pop clip and always waste time by starting by saying with how honoured you are to be asked on this program. Shout down anyone else when they’re talking.
Fair play to Greg Clark (Business Secretary), he’s been straight down to Swindon and got his sleeved rolled up. I hope he’s successful. I pray he doesn’t end up coming here too.
February 21, 2019 at 12:14 pm #31016May now being accused by Conservative supporters of deliberately running down the clock so that she can offer a binary choice to MPs – Her Deal, or No Brexit.
While we impatiently await this farce, you may like this NSFW lobby in support of No Brexit.
February 21, 2019 at 3:49 pm #31022I Noticed yesterday she added tjhe 3rd option of no brexit to her hard list of 2, deal or crash out. It made me smile. As I’ve said for two years this would happen.
If anyone cba, (I can’t) , I would of said it a few times over these 50 odd pages. She would be running the time down to shay not to crash out. She was a remainder aferall.
I recon she was given the job, to mess brexit up. It will kill her career, but I’m sure they will sort her out on the back end. I think that was always the plan. I’ve said it her many times.
And yesterday the 3rd option of staying popped up.
March 6, 2019 at 4:15 pm #31393So now the truth is starting to come out.
Germany’s prestigious IFO Institut, one of the most respected Economic Think Tanks in Germany and the EU has crunched the numbers and is now of the conclusion that a No Deal Brexit, if played cleverly by the UK hits the EU harder than the UK; and crucially Eire three times as hard as the UK.
In this scenario, the UK actually faces a smaller impact than the EU – they forecast a -0.5% impact on the UK compared to -0.4% for France and -0.48% for Germany, and -0.6% for the EU as a whole.
Gabriel Felbermayr, the author of the report and also President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, said that the EU needed to “urgently ponder whether the danger of a hard Brexit isn’t bigger than initially assumed” and called on the EU to offer to remove the backstop “as a quick fix at least”.
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March 6, 2019 at 4:23 pm #31396More data re the above can be seen here.
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March 6, 2019 at 5:07 pm #31400Do you know what ?
My views on getting out of the self serving back slapping EU have not changed a bit.
I am now only waiting for the day when my vote didnt count again.
March 6, 2019 at 5:18 pm #31403Graham are you being influenced by the Shadowy, probably not British group (Mainstream Network) who has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds on Facebook in anti-EU messages?
btw ‘clever ‘and our lazy bunch of incompetents is a contradiction in terms — the EU have nothing to worry about!
March 6, 2019 at 7:46 pm #31408I have to say, Ed, your comment re ‘clever’ also occurred to me. However, it seems that the plan that Gabriel Felbermayr thought would be clever or as he actually put it “hard but smart” is exactly the plan The government has if it becomes a No Deal Brexit. Wonders will never cease.
I note Carney also is today beginning to change his tune on No Deal Brexit saying we are now far better prepared for it than is the EU.
I think Cox is being given some teeth to bite with in the Backstop negotiations. And he has the incentive to fight very hard because pull it off and Leavers and Remainers alike will see him as the next PM.
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March 7, 2019 at 7:30 am #31413Whichever way you cut a hard Brexit, large sections of the populace will be hurt and the hurt will continue through the next election.
Even ‘simple’ measures to preserve food supply by say eliminating tariffs on Dutch exports of vegetable products automatically means the same reduction for competitive supplies from elsewhere in the world – UK farmers are certain to be hurt as their Common Market protections are swept away.
It is going to need a very tough Government to take decisions that will harm their own election prospects. I just cannot see it happening.
Unfortunately the Brexit process does not end on March 29, it only signals the start of a long and protracted series of negotiations. Just wait for the cries of anger as nasty bright yellow corn fed floppy skinned chickens are foist on us from the US. (US chickens ARE nasty – I can say that from personal experience), and US beef tends to be big, tender and tasteless – same as their strawberries etc.
March 7, 2019 at 8:59 am #31414Bla Bla Bla Fingers in my ears not listening.
So say the EU negotiators.
I say that is another Extra good reason to get the Hell Out.
March 9, 2019 at 1:45 pm #31447Just catching some interviews from the motershow, and thd heads of BMW, Toyota and Vx. They all went out their way to say their is no plans to invest in the UK.
Vx was the most definite, saying the Ellesmere port asta factory won’t be getting the new EV platforms. As they can’t plan forward, in such a time of confusion.
I said 2 years ago, and a few times since, that plant will be closed when the current 5 door astra runs its course.
BMW ended with no deal brexit, will be devistating for BMW and its place in the UK.
It didn’t take a genius or a crystal ball to see this coming.
Thr saddest part is, even if we was to leave, if the gov wousl of got its shit together, minimised confusion, these companies may still of been able to keep uk plants in their forecasting.
But what’s happening is, desicions have to be made, and why we are in flux, thr uk plants are not even in the convoststion. 3 years of business meetings, decisions and deals, mean, even if we stay in the EU as we was before, I feel these plants are now dead anyway. Time has left them behind, in an ever evolving industry.
March 9, 2019 at 4:12 pm #31451It was seen Duke but Brexiteers had their fingers in their ears and sang a deafening a chorus of ‘ Its all FUD’.
Unfortunately it will take a very brave car company, and lots of our dosh to do a 180 in such a environment.
March 9, 2019 at 5:23 pm #31454I think it’s now dead Ed, I can’t see any of them being here in 7 years time ( a models run is a about 4-6 years. The Ellesmere port astra plant, is a gonner come the end of the 2017 astra run. (I thought this when pug group bought them tbh), but this news that Vx arm of pug is butting zero money into the the “whole of the UK, never mind Ellesmere port plan” (his words). That’s to me is doors shutting 2021/22.
BMW and Toyota both saying similar. They can’t plan for the uk, so it’s on hold, and that is ne er good in an ever changing market.
They have to plan with today’s info, all the companies mentioned have plants elsewhere, so all contracts will be going to them, all R&D and investment will be going there.
Brexit will drag on enother year in my opinion. these companies can’t survive half a years of chaos. If I was at the top, I’d already have the wind down orders ready to go, and all future plans will be in main land Europe or Japan.
We are not really that needed. We was convieniant, and we tempered them with money, land, tax cuts. They only reason they haven’t moved out is cash, and secerity.
Now we have taken away the security, the cash is drying up. We are making it simple for them.
Cutting off our nose….
March 11, 2019 at 4:55 pm #31526For crying out loud !!!!!!
We are constantly told by the EU that there is no such thing as a smart border possible using today’s technologies and hence the Irish Backstop is essential.
OK then Mr Macron how the heck are you going to cope with trade at the border with the UK if there is a No Deal Brexit? “That’s no problem we are going to operate a Smart Border”. You really couldn’t make it up could you. OK Macron himself didn’t say it but look here.
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March 11, 2019 at 7:45 pm #31543The Irish already recognise that a Hard Brexit means hard borders around the EU, and a resurgence in IRA activists – re the three ineffectual letter bombs are warnings.
{Edit] UK exports are limited by logistics to a small number of crossing points. Ireland has around 200 road crossing points, and both Ulstermen and Irish To put smart tech on all these points is just not economically practical. In any case given the tendency of the Irish in general to flout rules every man and his dog would be seeking ways to graft a few pounds/euros and you would need smart tech that handle agricultural product – are you sure that these bright yellow chickens came from the UK?.
March 12, 2019 at 12:12 am #31554Not sure I can agree totally with your thrust there, Ed. Most significant exports either way across the NI border don’t go via the minor roads/crossings. They use the major trunks. Yes, there might be smuggling on the minor routes just as there is into every minor port and minor airfield in mainland UK currently for other purposes from spliff material to human contraband. I personally don’t think the Irish flout the rules any more than the rest of us given the number of folks selling cheap cigs or tobacco in almost every pub I know.
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March 12, 2019 at 12:26 am #31556Totally cracked up when I saw this…………………………..ROFL big time………
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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