Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

Thanks now I understand – an election speech by Borghi of the far-right League party.

I found this interesting – and one for the conspiracy theories.

“Salvini is allied with far-right groups in other EU countries and is working with U.S. President Donald Trump’s former political strategist Steve Bannon to build a network of parties opposed to closer European integration. “

[The VFM Addict]

Not sure that there’s a conspiracy there, Ed.   Its not been hidden that Bannon was working on such.  Its been well publicised for months.   Also its not unusual for parties to employ strategists from other countries.   Its happened in the UK with regularity.

Ed, we are 28 separate nations most with centuries of history and different personalities/psyches.   Especially the UK but I won’t labour that point.   The spectrum of differences is far wider than it ever was in even the old Soviet bloc.   We all have different priorities not just at governmental level but at the popular level.   One might describe them as different ‘red lines’.   You cannot easily meld and harmonise that which took centuries to establish and develop in a matter of decades.    So people of the 28 states begin to feel the have and indeed they have lost sovereignty and in such circumstances they look and move Right for a solution.  Looking left doesn’t help because almost of its very nature the Left is about melding and harmonisation.    How weird it is that one of the objectives of the EU concept was to avoid the far right rising again but thought through logically of its very nature makes such a certainty.   To see what I mean just think about the UK; the predominantly two party system.   Go left for too long and then whoosh things swing back hard to the right such that things then swing back to the left – Rinse and Repeat.

Lets be real here.   You and I would probably both be in favour of that which the EEC was held up to be – a trading bloc.   There are an increasing number of such around the globe and most are doing well.   But none of those have the political add-ons the EU already has such as freedom of movement and none have the aims or goals of a common currency, a common fiscal policy, a common army, a common foreign policy, a common legislature and common judiciary, etc., etc.    Nations are far too long established in Europe for their peoples to allow their parliaments to become little more that parish councils in a big EU state.   I can’t recall who said it but I agree with the words which were not that the EU is too big and because of such will fail but rather that it is too big to ever ultimately succeed.

 

 

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[Ed P]

Corbyn’s Trade Bloc is the most practical way of approaching Brexit. Frankly I cannot see why the Moggites are fighting it. As usual the devil is in the detail but it is a much better starting point than May’s half-baked approach.

I have problems in accepting that any foreigners have a right to interfere with our business. Were the boot on the other foot there would be US Congressional investigations of the sources of funding for Farage, the ERG etc. In my many years overseas I have come across many nasty cases of US interference in domestic policies of which more than half were strategically of the lunatic fringe variety, and actually in opposition to stated US State goals.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

…………. I have problems in accepting that any foreigners have a right to interfere with our business. …………..

Good God, Ed, there’s a sentence we would both agree on.    While in any customs union we are prevented from making our own trade deal with any country.   That’s why most Leavers are so against a CU.

While most folks are looking at the week after next and the next ‘meaningful vote’ as the next significant date point at which dynamics may change in the Parliament I am looking more closely at this coming Tuesday.   On that day the AG, Geoffrey Cox, who’s advice was that the backstop indefinitely commits the UK to a CU, will set out what changes would be needed to remove it.    The way in which he does so will give us a true glimpse of where things are likely to go.    Will it suggest they are not that great thereby heaping blame on the EU for no modification or will he suggest the changes as so massive that it is unreasonable for us to insist on them.    The direction of that bias in his words I am sure will weigh on Parliament because they will impact public opinion.   So for me this coming Tuesday it likely to be a very important day.

On a slightly different point I note that May is stressing how history will judge Parliament on whether Brexit is delivered on time.   Come on now, she knows that ‘common/popular’ history never remembers who most Ministers were at a given point in time let alone who MPs were.   Its the PM that is remembered and carries the can.    After all who were the Ministers who took us in in Heath’s day or who were Major’s Ministers at the time of Maastricht?    So in many ways she is currently talking specifically about herself.    If Brexit isn’t delivered on time, it will be May that didn’t deliver. History will not say she didn’t deliver because Parliament wouldn’t let her it will say she was incompetent at carrying Parliament with her.    She may be many things but is not a total foll and surely knows this.   Therefore for her personally (i.e. in her own mind) I cannot see that delaying leaving on 29 March which she has so constantly committed to is even an option.  If and I stress ‘if’ the EU won’t shift and her WA deal won’t pass, I cannot see how she personally can do anything other than leave on 29th, No Deal.    Her defence, irrespective of the eventual consequences of such, be they ultimately good or bad, will in history be that the public said we must leave and they were her paymasters.    I think internally she will require in order to retain any self-respect whatsoever to keep to 29th March no matter what.     Read the person not the words.   Put differently consider that dynamic, the person within regarding May just as you insist on doing, Ed, with Soros.   Then you might see what I mean.

No deal – and I would add I would accept May’s deal with a removed or softened backstop – is I believe now because of who May is as a person far more likely than not, if the EU don’t move significantly to compromise.    Cox’s view on the changes need, which with his political hat on, will I suspect in many ways give us a glimpse not only of the legalities but in their bias a glimpse of her reading on May.

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[Ed P]

I’m not sure that May isn’t a complete and utter fool and or completely incompetent. Look back at her period in the Home Office and there is not one success:

a) Windrush – what superb management. It will only cost us millions.

b) Immigration – total screw-up, especially her lack of control of illegal immigrants and decimation of the Border Force.

c) Political Crime Commissars – what a complete screw-up! We had a working system with good Police liaison and she replaced it with something where the Police can only come along on their day off.

d) Crime and policing. What a great idea to decimate the Police Force with particular emphasis on experienced Police. OK she brought in broken IT to make up, but stripped-out any support staff with technical ability. As the former Met Chief Constable said, ‘We can always throw the laptops at crooks’.

All because she was booed at a Conference.

e) Appointment of the worst Foreign secretary ever. It takes an even hand to offend both friends and foes alike!

I very much doubt if you can find anything in her career that she did really well.

 

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I more than tend to agree with you on Mrs May’s record Ed, she promiced much but delivered little. However I believe, as VFM said, she is now looking at her own personal place in history, she cannot go down as the PM who defied the result of a referendum. If the EU fail to budge on the backstop then I feel that Mrs may will throw her support behind a no deal because she can say ” It wos the people wot told me to do it”.

[The VFM Addict]

Indeed, she could even argue that it was wot Parliament told her to do given that well over 400 that voted for the Act which fixed the 29 March is law as the absolute date we Leave.

As for what Ed said I cant dispute a thing and do agree.   I had meant in my own words that she has at least the ability to know that its PM’s that in history carry the can not MPs.    However, if as he seems to feel leaving without a deal would be dangerously foolish – and – as he also seems to believe May is a total fool – then – the act of her leaving with No Deal would surely seem the most likely and merely par for the course.

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[Dave Rice]

The only bit of parliament that thinks No Deal is anything other than a huge threat are the leave at any cost brigade.

Never mind all this psuedo-economic claptrap, now we are getting nearer reality is starting to bite. Business is starting to speak up. Porsche and Volvo will be passing on any tariffs and Ford have said 13,000 jobs are at risk. We all know what Airbus have said. A third of the Institute of Directors have said they have either moved or are planning to move. They are moving to the EU. One reason Flybmi went bust is they can’t get European contracts and the same is happening with research.

How many hundreds of millions have already been spent or lost on this nonsense that could have been better spent elsewhere?

[The VFM Addict]

Couldn’t agree more, Dave.   May should have taken Tusk’s arm off when he offered a Canada ++ deal a year back.   Things would be sorted by now had she accepted.    More foolish behaviour by her of the kind, Ed, cited.   I guess of one thing we would all agree, albeit, to support different positions, and that is that May is personally responsible for where she and we all find ourselves today.    But I do believe that May is ‘internally’ entrenched and come what may will shift heaven and earth, fighting dirty or fair, to ensure we leave on 29th March.   If not she will go down in history as a failure and the Tories too will crash as those opposed to her current deal or an extension are mobilising at a phenomenal rate.    Farage’s new Brexit Party has in just one week received pre-registrations of 100,000 and there’s also another well funded party being formed, ‘Brexit Express’, as well.    Both already have war chests of over £1M to fight a snap GE if one is called and funds are flowing in.    If May’s deal or an extension occur a significant number of the 17.4M who voted Leave in 2016 will put their support there and such will be many magnitudes greater than the threat Cameron faced from UKIP.

I accept as true your statement that – ‘The only bit of parliament that thinks No Deal is anything other than a huge threat are the leave at any cost brigade’.    However, parliament does not reflect the will of even the current Tory party membership nor for that matter the public.    More and more I hear folks saying we must leave on 29 March and put an end to this fiasco no matter what; and I would add that’s mainly in London which was a Remain area.

Personally, I hope the EU recognises that No Deal has no backstop whatsoever(!) re the N.I. border.  Far better therefore to change the WA for a time limited or softer backstop.   If not it has big problems.   Shaft Eire by forcing them to set up a hard border or kicking Eire out of the CU & SM – and – then shaft EU politically, especially the nearing recession German one, by having to financially bail Eire out.    Oil and gas tariffs alone would cripple Eire since they get about 90% of both from us. So the bail out would have to be HUGE; dwarfing what Greece cost.   It is all too easy to forget all of such.   That is the true gun to the EU’s head not lost exports and sawn-off double barrelled shotgun politically.   Especially in that 29 March pre-dates the May EU elections.

At least the Irish press has now woken up to such as the Irish Independent Lead Editorial link I posted previously shows.

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[Dave Rice]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>I’m sure there will be an 11th hour deal if we show some signs of movement. As it is Brussels has no incentive, a no deal is coming any way. The erg and dup will just find something else, especially bouyed up by a victory. May cannot get anything past them so why should Brussels even try?</p>
<p style=”text-align: center;”>We have few friends in the world and if there is any trouble in Ireland the powerful American Irish will be down on us like a ton of bricks. A lot of silent voices are starting to speak up and they’re not supportive of the erg approach. Basically threats such as you mention, gunboat diplomacy again. I see the defence Secretary is now pissing off the Chinese. Nice move.</p>
We need a general election. TBH that’s probably the only thing that will scare the erg and dup as farage will do nothing apart from split the vote. They never won a seat and never will. Don’t forget the 48%, this is not a leavers love in.

[The VFM Addict]

I agree that UKIP never won a seat due to FPTP even though it got 4M votes.   But sure as hell the dynamic is very different now.   Far more people have their danders up about the EU and the way it has treated us during the last two years.     The vast majority of Tory party members and activists are totally against May’s Deal if the backstop remains.   All polling and other research is clear that the political divide in the electorate is not Left v Right anymore but Remainers versus Leavers.    Different alliances and different battle lines often result in vastly different outcomes.     Yes, the new Brexit Party, could split the Tory and Leave vote but Chukka et al to the rescue it seems committed to also splitting the Labour and Remain vote also.    ‘We live in interesting times’ could never be more accurate than now.

I can’t see May calling a GE in such circumstances.  Far too unpredictable.   Neither can I see her calling Ref2 either as that also is too unpredictable.

I agree the USA Noraid could morph into EireAid and probably would.   But as it seems it would be the EU that would force a hard border on them or kick them out of the CU & SM, while we have pledged never to set up a hard border, I’m not certain any wrath would be solely in our direction from either the Eire electorate or across the big pond.    Yes, we may have fired the starting gun in search of our own restored sovereignty just as did Gavrillo Princip in WW1 but its those who mobilise the troops that usually get the blame.  If the EU get heavy, very heavy handed with Eire, they will carry the brunt along with Varadkar, I’m sure.

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[Dave Rice]

I admire your ability to spin things into totally extreme positions. You can certainly take the germ of an idea and extrapolate it to amazing heights to support your viewpoint.

Hard to see how 7 labour MPs resigning and not creating a new party will split the Remain vote.

The Amercian Irish have pointed out that if a border appears it will solely be down to the actions of the UK. Firstly in totally ignoring the issue and having no plan then in refusing to accept the negotitated deal that was crafted in the way we asked for!

If someone continually pisses on your lawn on their way back from the pub is it your fault you don’t have a fence? Do you think other people would blame you for putting up a fence? I agree with ED, I don’t see how anyone can complain about border security and controlling access to the UK then leaving 300 miles of it wide open. Just more hypocrisy.

[The VFM Addict]

Come on now, Dave, the New Gang of Seven, is evangelically asking others to join them.   How will they stand come next GE if not as a new party?

RE Eire – I think the Irish Independent link I have posted twice shows that it is bully boy tactics by the EU that are feared.    Left to our own devices neither we nor Eire would set up a border.    I do wonder about you querying an open border between us an Eire as being against the principles of Brexit re immigration.    We have had a free travel area with Eire since long, long before either of us were members of the EEC or EU.    And, remember its EU rules and control we desire to leave behind not long standing agreements between us and Eire.

If Eire don’t want a hard border which is what they say and say they would never set up one and then the EU forces them to, by threat of kicking them out of the CU and SM, tell me who will appear the bully boys?    Remembering that we agree with Eire and would not want or set up a hard border.    It is obviously not each other we and Eire are in disagreement with it is the EU.   I think the EU’s explicit threats to Eire made at that point will focus the mind and perhaps even have Irish Americans realising just why we wanted to leave that Bureaucratic out of touch Mafia, the EU Commission – which is in effect what Soros was saving in his recent article.   The peoples of Europe and the EU Commission are increasingly standing opposed to one another from Italy, to Poland, to Greece………     I surely do not need to cite the wide spread evidence of such.

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[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

If Eire don’t want a hard border which is what they say and say they would never set up one and then the EU forces them to, by threat of kicking them out of the CU and SM, tell me who will appear the bully boys?

If you bother to read the Eire press or read the statements of Sinn Fein, there is only one Hard Border villain and it sure as hell isn’t the EU! Both portray a Hard Border as a betrayal of the principles of the GFA. I assure you that in Irish eyes principles are everything, and the hell with pragmatism. That is why Cromwell and King Billy are both either loved or hated. Long memories, religious bigotism and grievances are a dangerous mix.

[The Duke]

Honda are out too now. RIP Swindon. If only there was anyone experts predicting this type of stiff ?

I’m sure the brexiteers PR wagon is sringing in to action to try and spin this as a non Brexit issue.

[The VFM Addict]

@Ed

Agree 100% that the Irish Press and Sinn Féin – “Both portray a Hard Border as a betrayal of the principles of the GFA.”   So who is going to put up one and enforce it?    Varadkar says he won’t.  We say we won’t.   The EU are making noises that they will threaten Eire to put one up.     That’s my very point.   Who will enact the betrayal of the GFA?    Frankly the backstop also betrays the GFA as it breaches the principle of consent enshrined in the GFA.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

The Duke wrote:

Honda are out too now. RIP Swindon. If only there was anyone experts predicting this type of stiff I’m sure the brexiteers PR wagon is sringing in to action to try and spin this as a non Brexit issue.

WTF, Duke, are you trolling or are you truly that taken in by Project Fear.   No-one is putting Honda down to Brexit.   If it was Brexit Honda would simply be moving to an EU country.  They are not.

Like most manufacturers Honda are responding to global market dynamics.   These include a move from diesel (and petrol) to electric which the EU like us will be pushing; a slowdown in the world economy; and vast automobile over production capacity worldwide.   I doubt you put Brexit down as the reason why Nissan has cut production at three Chinese plants; why Ford is to shed most of its North American car line-up and GM is shutting production at five facilities also in North America.

Of course it you are prone to blindly accepting Project Fear you will not have noticed (because the Project Fear biased media is hardly mentioning it) that Citigroup is now attempting to buy its London office for £1.2 billion. A huge, huge vote of confidence in London and the UK.  And also failed to notice that the EU are starting to blink often.

CityAM Editor Christian May has written how the EU have “blinked” when it comes to a No Deal Brexit, with plans put in place to minimise disruption.   In event of no-deal: 12 month equivalence regime to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption to derivatives clearing and 24 months of equivalence to ensure no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators.   It is untrue that No Deal means no transition period.   There have been similar ‘blinks’ re road haulage but those too get virtually no mention in the main stream media.

Broad-base your news consumption looking at what is truly taking place in each market sector  and you will probably be shocked how much the Beeb etc., are forgetting (!!!) to mention.   Its offensive how they are seeking to misinform the public via selective coverage.    Its even worse that what both sides did in the Ref campaign.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

PS @Duke,

I should also have mentioned that if anything the EU free trade deal with Japan is more to blame for our loss of Nissan and now Honda.   No need to produce now in any EU state; so both can and are reconsolidating production in Japan.    This therefore would have occurred for that very reason no matter whether we Left or Remained in the EU.    Actually given all of that I’m surprised that Toyota are staying in the UK and a month or so back began production of the world’s best selling car here; which would you believe it is actually the Corolla(?).

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[Ed P]

Honda make THEIR statement at 8am today then we will know what made them decide to close Swindon and impact ~20000 people. (There is a five times multiplier in the impact on jobs in the UK).

[The VFM Addict]

Now, now…..Ed…….don’t exaggerate………. 5 x 3,500 is 17, 500 as full well you know………….?   It may also surprise you but Honda sales in the EU have been tumbling for years.    It is now in the No. 19 spot in car sales to the EU just about everyone you could think of outsells them.    So with that and the Japanese free trade deal there is very little reason to produce anywhere in the EU anymore.

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[Author]

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