Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Bob Williams]

Brexit, Shmegsit …

http://tinyurl.com/yywpap6u

Great summing – up from the Daily Mash.

It’s all far too serious to be taken seriously at this late stage anyway.?

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

I said before I have zero interest in reading and even less interest in analysing the biased propaganda of Soros. Anything he communicates has a dollar motive to it. Sorry but that is my last word on him. I take it from your repeated evasions that you are trying to avoid answering my questions?

I do apologise if I have not responded to one or more of your questions.  I have re-read both mine and your earlier posts and as far as I can see I answered all of them.  Could you please let me know which one(s) I did not and I will gladly correct my failing, promptly.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

To ease your search I have emboldened the questions you could not find.

Ed P wrote:

Why ever would the EU agree to that, assuming of course that they could? This has not been the subject of any discussion in the press, and any mention of WTO is poo-poohed by the Brexiteers who irritatingly never address the critical trade details. Its all going to be so easy, the EU will roll-over and do whatever we ask as they (supposedly) have so much to lose. Assuming they are legally able and willing to do what you suggest (doubtful) then I would speculate the EU will say fine, but it will cost you 90% of your normal nett EU contributions. Nothing is for nothing in this world. Let the ERG idiots wriggle out of that one!

Ed P wrote:

…. Having answered the questions posed to me I would appreciate your response on why the EU should give away their Trade Deals without exacting a stiff payment (even higher if we pauper ourselves with a Hard Brexit).

You may also care to reference the Government position on this aspect as well. As you can see it is all a meaningless ‘intent’ with no force or legality. However the bottom line is that a Hard Brexit is a real Oh Sh*t situation.

Perhaps I should explain that the soft options of continuing an existing Trade Deal only apply if a tripartite arrangement has been negotiated. The EU own the deal and would be the negotiators, when we leave we are no longer an EU member so cannot automatically avail ourselves of such deals. The EU could object if we try and do it without their cooperation. Without EU good will, and judging by how crap we are at negotiating we could be five years in the wilderness.

I know that you do not trust the Beeb on Brexit (maybe because they give the hard truths) but they have addressed this situation and it all comes out as a stack of ‘maybes’, and ‘the UK could be on thin ice’. i.e. it all depends on just how cooperative the EU states are on this one. This is NOT something the EU Commissioners can dictate as member states can legally veto Trade deals. In my experience when dealing with commercial matters you normally have to pay one way or another for cooperation.

As the EU has repeatedly stated it will not enter into Trade discussions until the divorce has been settled and we have left the EU, our negotiators have not been able to address these points.

[The VFM Addict]

My apologies.   Because of the context within which you posed your questions they appeared merely rhetorical.   I will do my best to deal with them all.

Firstly I assure you the EU’s power re roll-over under GATT Art.24 is only that of veto if it desires.   It does not need to ‘actively agree’ so to speak.    You are incorrect that individual EU states could veto roll-over.     Under EU rules they can only veto before a trade deal is finalised; so for example could not veto roll-over of deals currently in place such as the Japan deal.   God, Ed, I truly wish you were correct because if you were we would not just have a No Deal gun we would have a Thermonuclear Weapon.    Because still currently being members we could veto every EU trade deal the EU already has in place until a decent WA is agreed.

The question you pose as to why the EU as a whole would not veto roll-over currently returns us of course to the old issue of the manner of earlier negotiations.    The EU never believed we would go for No Deal hence was never under pressure as regards its potential loses.   Only now is it starting to come under pressure from its own business community to avert such.    The EU would have been under two years of growing pressure if from the start we had headed for No Deal but stated we would be open to a free trade deal after leaving provided that the WA was favourable and they desired one.    I cannot understand why Remainers refuse to recognise that it was our abysmal approach to the negotiations that brings us to where we are today.   Truly, can you ever imagine going to an employer and saying I want a pay rise but I’m not going to leave even if I don’t get one.   May/Robbins strategy was fundamentally that type of preposterous stance from the start.   It was a case of give us whatever WA agreement you want because we will accept it whatever it is.    I don’t blame the EU for making the most of that Golden Opportunity gifted them by May.    The reality is though that even in March 2017, on the 3rd IIRC, Tusk openly offered us a Canada ++ FTA.   Ideal.   Obviously the EU wasn’t worrying about the N.I. border then.    May declined it.   I therefore to a degree concur with you as to why on Earth would they offer things we want now.    May did have an opportunity when Robbins got big mouthed in the bar.  If she had fired him and appointed a true Brexiteer then the EU might even now have realised it was truly looking at the barrel of the No Deal gun.   But she did not.   Anyway Robbins probably had been acting merely on May’s orders and my bet is Robbins covers his butt and holds firm evidence that he had been.   He’s that kind of guy….LOL    If this is so then at the very least May has been repeatedly lying to Parliament almost if not over the line that defines Treason.    And as I understand it an MP would not protected from prosecution for such by Parliamentary privilege; obviously though such is academic as it will never happen either way.    May is now between a rock and a very, very hard place.   She was adamant that we leave at the end of March but if her unaltered WA deal does not pass, and it is unlikely that it will, then what does she do?    If we don’t leave at the end of March then the case for alleging She and Parliament has not respected the Ref Result is carried even at the toughest possible burden one could apply.

My own view of May is that she has made her mind up that her sole task is to deliver the result of the Ref.   That I believe, in her mind, is what she will be judged on in history.   She’s probably right.   I therefore half suspect she will go No Deal if push comes to shove.   She has several legal tools to make that occur unless Eliz II doesn’t follow her advice.   My bet is her maj would.    The Queen will not refuse accent to a Prime Ministerial request that Parliament go into recess in the last weeks of March in the national interests.   I think May may already be trying to kick the can such that either Parliament backs her deal through panic or that option opens for her.   Is she maneuveringwhere she can fulfil her premiership objective  either way?     What else are May’s options – Don’t deliver the Ref and thereby self-certify in history her premiership as not having delivered on that which it set as its sole task; fatally wound democracy and unquestionably split the Tory party asunder.   I think people have not been reading May’s own inner needs fully or looking at the gun that is pointed at her self image if we don’t leave at the end of March.   I might be wrong.   But I’ve spent my life examining and making a living out of what individual’s inner needs are and I think I can see what May’s are.   I once secured a big video production deal just by recognising that the buyer had photo’s of his young son everywhere in his office.   Bingo.   I story lined the proposed video with a part for a young child and suggested that to keep costs down and for the fun of it his son could take that minor starring role.   Deal closed in seconds.  Only time will tell but I think I read May’s inner needs and they are to deliver on the ref  on time come what may.  Anything else and she’ll see herself as a failure in history.

Finally, the Beeb.   It is clear you buy into the Beeb being neutral.   Do you believe The Guardian also being such?    May I suggest that you look back at all the  facts I have directed you to.   I am not saying that the Beeb makes things up.    Rather it is that there are typically to bodies of opinion re most indicators or there are two sets of differing indicators.   The Beed only big’s up those favouring remain.   For example, the Beeb made BIG of Hammond’s down-rating of his growth predictions for the UK in 2019.    While its close to impossible to find even a mention that the EU up-rated its UK forecast at the same time and to a level above Hammond’s.    Equally I also said the Beeb were BIG on Nissan but hardly a word on Toyota just starting production here of the world’s best selling car here.    No mention on the Beeb either that there has been no major exodus of financial services whatsoever and that staff are still being recruited for the UK in greater numbers than for the EU financial hubs.   The Beeb totally ignored Reuters regarding that.   I could go on but I doubt you’d accept the evidence of bias which if fully studied by a neutral jury would find the Beeb guilty of bias.  Go look at the panels for Question time.   That’s another good example.   With only one exception in the last year the Beeb has selected a majority of Remainers.   Indeed on occassion there been only one Leaver on the panel.   So, Ed, I expect you and I will have to differ on whether the Beeb is neutral.    I see no evidence that it has been.   I do though from your words regarding the Beeb assume that you will in future and without question, accept any and all Beeb material I cite regarding Leave as being gospel, unchallengeable and with no valid opposing data existing.   Fair enough?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

If we leave on no deal she’ll also go down as the person that beggared the country and that will have immediate consequences, no waiting for history.

[Ed P]

You cannot roll-over something that is not in existence. We would NOT have a trade deal, therefore any State could veto a new post-Brexit trade deal that gave us favourable access to their (then existing) trade deals. Under the case of a Hard Brexit I’d see no State looking favourably at helping us out.

I do not accept your attempt to blame poor negotiation on Remainers. The negotiators were all Brexiteers, and it is their fault that they achieved little.  if you think that May sabotaged their efforts then you are welcome to heap scorn on her. I certainly would not defend anything she has EVER done.

From my perspective I saw the whole round of negotiations as a way of Brexiterr stalling and  trying to make the clock run out so they could achieve their cretinous ideas of a Hard Brexit. If they saw May sabotaging negotiations the Right Wing of the Conservative Party had ample opportunity to try and remove her but failed.

The only gun to anyone’s head has been us threatening to blow out our own brains.

[The VFM Addict]

First to Dave;

Don’t be silly such dire forecast (i.e. beggaring) relies on Project Fear being true.   What beggaring if it is not,   BTW have you seen the FT lately.   The latest cracked me up.    If the EU doesn’t give the London markets full equivalence then the German Investment Funds Association said,  “without equivalence granted to UK trading venues, we see the real possibility of EU27 fund managers locating operations in the future in the UK”.    So the German association says the Financial Services Exodus will be from the EU 27 to us!!!    I wonder if the Beeb will report that not insignificant opinion other than in small piece which is hardly locatable.     Where are you Remainers getting your news?   I cite the EU’s own growth predictions for the UK, Reuters and the FT etc., while Ed cited Breitbart recently.   Truly, so much of Project Fear is falling apart day by day if you bother to fully look.

Now to Ed;

What the hell are you talking about?  I thought I made clear that roll-over of existing EU trade deals, which we currently have access to, is nothing to do with the EU giving us a trade deal.    The deal is already in place between us and the other third party states by deem of our EU membership.   It can be rolled over by us unless the EU or the third party state veto’s it.   Individual EU member states would have no unilateral right of veto because the deal being rolled over is already in place.    I do accept that individual EU member states could put pressure on the commission to use their veto but no state alone could force the EU to use the EU’s potential veto.

One sentence in your second paragraph would I think have most readers doing a face palm.   There is no question that May and Robbins (both Remainers) controlled the negotiations.     Both Davis and Raab walked because of such.   Indeed, when Barclay was put in post it was made clear to him that such would continue.   It borders on the preposterous for you to write as you did –  “The negotiators were all Brexiteers, and it is their fault that they achieved little.”    Especially by your inclusion of the word “all” a patently untrue statement.   Are you having a laugh, Ed.   You surely don’t believe what you wrote do you?     Almost exclusively it has been May and Robbins who no-one would describe as Brexiteers.    OK…go on then…..you have my permission to do your own face palm as you reflect on what you wrote………you know you want to, don’t you.

Being straight faced serious again though, the plan Davis had been working on was along the lines of the Canada ++ that Tusk offered and had we gone that route it would already be sorted by now.    But May had been working behinds the scenes with the Chequers Plan and sprung it out of the blue on the cabinet at that retreat trying to railroad the entire cabinet.   Come to think of it ‘retreat’ is a good description regarding what May has politically been in since Chequers.

As for closing shot (a very appropriate term given the subject matter) EU business organisations are increasingly filling the magazine of the gun we can hold to the EU’s head.   That the EU not giving equivalence for the London Financial Markets would cause an exodus from the EU to us certainly blows the brains out of another the Project Fear’s falsehoods.   Doesn’t it !!!   Given that our economy is so heavily FS based such an exodus from the EU to us alone would make Brexit a HUGE success.   Sadly I don’t think that the EU would be that stupid so they will give London full access and equivalence.   That’ll do though because we can, can’t we, say from that, that the main engine of the UK economy will not be injured one iota by Brexit.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Let me spell it out again – at the time of our exit we will NOT be in the EU!

The Government position (see my previous link) is:

“During any implementation period, arrangements would be put in place with partner countries so that the UK is treated as an EU member state for the purposes of international agreements, including trade agreements.

In the event of a ‘no deal’, there will be no implementation period. In this scenario, the government will seek to bring into force bilateral UK-third country agreements from exit day, or as soon as possible thereafter.

These new agreements will replicate existing EU agreements and the same preferential effects with third countries as far as possible … ”

Cut through the weasel words we have nothing firm, just a lot of intentions. We would have to negotiate new agreements – not one word concerning rolling-over EU agreements because we couldn’t, unless the EU passported us into it.

If you read the previous link, you will see that the Government position is laced with warnings to exporters.

Not one bit of this is certain. However, there is nothing (except certain Brexit idiots) to stop the UK and EU forming a trade bloc with the intention of carrying forward existing deals, but that would need to be negotiated.

 

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

There is a massive great blot on the landscape stopping us forming a trading block with the continent and its called the EU. Its their ball and they say they will take it home with them if we don’t agree to play by all their rules.

They seem to forget that balls are on sale the world over.

[The Duke]

Balls with will incur tariffs or at the least concessions. They have us by ours, or rather we gave them ours on a plate. All we need to do to get them back is play the game as you say.

On a side not I seen on the forces did com magazine yesterday that it looks like our new type 26 ships is looking like we’ll be inporting French built diesel engines. As it doesn’t look like we’ll have the skilled manpower to build them in the future. Not sure if this is related to brexit or not. But freedom of movement could of offered a few nice jobs for the French to come in and full the gaps while training up more brits.

Also given we now are incapable of building our own nuclear power stations, not a new thing, how are we going to build the new plants we need?

Surly we can’t bring in French EDF people over. That would be hypocritical. Surely Out means out.

 

[The VFM Addict]

Don’t follow your arguments one bit there, Duke.   Out or Leave do not mean excluding EU states from the World.    Nothing wrong working with American, South African, French, Chinese, Indian or Polish businesses or workers equally when we have left.   Out means not having to give favoritism to any particular state or its businesses or workers.   We buy-in what we need from wherever we want.   So nothing wrong working with EDF, France will remain part of the World and Brexit Britain seeks to trade globally without the constraints of EU protectionism.

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Rather than start a new post I thought the following two items of news may be of interest to readers of this thread.

The Irish press is starting to fear that the Bullies of the EU will shaft Eire if we go No Deal.    This lead Editorial in yesterday’s Irish Independent is a must read.   They are hearing very ominous sounds in Brussels.

Meanwhile in Italy, Claudio Borghi, who is also Chairman of the Budget Committee, for the governing Lega party said of reform after May’s European Elections: “I think this is the last opportunity.”…….“Either we succeed in changing (EU) now or we will have to Leave.”…….“If the environment remains toxic, I will say ‘let’s go out.’  Since 2000, Italy has grown by 3% we lost two decades and threw them, there was no economic progress.”    Report from the HuffPost here.

It must also not be forgotten that Germany’s AfD party which is growing in leaps and bounds and is likely to surge in the EU Elections in May, within it draft Manifesto agreed at its January conference, pledged to campaign for Berlin’s exit from the EU in the upcoming European Parliament elections if its demand for reforms within the bloc are not met.    This is the first time any major party in Germany has called for Dexit.   Watch this space – especially if Germany has to bail out Eire in the case of a No Deal.   Truly can’t see the German electorate stomaching another bail out by Berlin when the German Economy is already flat lining and heading towards recession even assuming we don’t No Deal and damage its 25 billion Euro car exports to the UK.

All in all I bet the Pharmacies of Brussels are doing a roaring trade in headache and incontinence medications if the truth were known.   Its close to impossible to find a single dynamic at present which bodes well for the EU’s long term survival.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Easy to find out what worries Belgians and it certainly isn’t Brexit. The main common headline across the EU is the kid’s climate change protests. Brussels Times

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Easy to find out what worries Belgians and it certainly isn’t Brexit. The main common headline across the EU is the kid’s climate change protests. Brussels Times

Worries re a No Deal vary dramatically across the EU state to state; an in countries by Region to Region.   Germany it is car Exports so Bavaria and Munich, Belgium it is numerous exports, France it is agricultural produce, etc.

Job loss predictions also vary.  The Flanders area of Belgium alone predicts 42,000 job losses and the whole of Germany 100,000.  But obviously the effect on Flanders is socially much greater given its far smaller population.

I know I keep talking re Eire but its not just that we are Eire’s largest export market it is also its imports that are significant.   EU imposed import tariffs on UK goods in the case of No Deal would savage every household.   It is pretty much totally reliant on us for filling the tanks of its cars and heating.    It gets around 90% of its oil products from us and over 90% of its gas.   Varadkar truly is ‘betting the house’ on either us caving in re the backstop or the EU bailing Eire out if it’s a No Deal.   Hence the Editorial in the Irish Independent I linked earlier because an EU bail out is by no means certain.   If Varadkar has bet wrong then he will have sunk Eire.    We are talking meteoric inflation and a totally trashed economy pretty much overnight and on a scale far greater that even that which you envisage for the UK in the event of that same No Deal.

I’ve read many European articles and reports, Regional, National or by Market Sector and truly the bigger economy EU states, as opposed to the smaller or Eastern EU states, have a HUGE amount to fear from a No Deal.   The likes of Varadkar, Macron and Merkel have much to fear..   It is them not us that are in the land of the Emperor’s New Clothes.   The EU’s, pretty much enforced and collective, brave face is a mask.  We are not simply in a game of chicken but also a masquerade.    The funny thing is that the likes of Junker and Tusk have little to fear from No Deal.   The current EU commission is out of office automatically come the May EU elections.   Moreover given the Eurosceptic surge that all accept is coming a new and different EU Hierarchy is pretty certain.

Although its a few months out of date this Politico link is the most readable overview I’ve ever come across regarding the various significant No Deal impacts on the EU.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Lets just face the facts, no-one but the lunatic fringe of Brexiteers wants a No-Deal exit. The EU have all along stated that such a scenario hurts them but will definitely hurt us more. In other words they will not be cooperative on their existing trade deals and our Government recognises that in their insubstantial position paper.

US financial observers put the odds of no deal at 15%, No Brexit 30% and May’s deal 55%.

May seems to think you have to have a threat in order to negotiate. In my experience that is a really lousy strategy especially if very few think the gun will actually be used, and hurts you more!

This whole damned mess is caused by lunatic Conservatives.

[Ed P]

Barnier likes Corbyn’s proposal and thinks it could form the basis of a deal. The EU already has similar Trade Blocs with Andorra and Turkey. Of course it also kills the Irish Border question stone-dead apart from the usual Animal Welfare/Bio Security problems.

Given the proven inabilities of British negotiators and our less significant trading position I fail to see why such a Bloc would not be in our best interests.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

So the Italians reccon they can get the EU to change its rules in a substantial way do they ? Good luck with that one, we can’t get then to move an inch. Not before the Brexit vote or after it.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

So the Italians reccon they can get the EU to change its rules in a substantial way do they ? Good luck with that one, we can’t get then to move an inch. Not before the Brexit vote or after it.

???????????????

Did a Google on that, it yielded nothing!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Its in the Huffpost link provided by VFM.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

Its in the Huffpost link provided by VFM.

Perhaps you can provide the link as I cannot find it. AFAIK there are two main points of contention – economic migrants/refugees (but other EU states also have similar issues), and a commercial spate with France with respect to a trans-Alpine tunnel.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2019/02/15/claudio-borghi-se-non-riusciamo-a-cambiare-lue-dovremo-uscirne_a_23670379/

The link as requested. You have to chose English and click read more.

[Author]

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