Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[dwynnehugh]

The word ‘politican’ and ‘truth’ are never found in the same sentence.

Just to go back to the Brexit debate – might it not have been better if May had gone in with a coalition of all parties at the outset as this is something what will affect the UK for decades to come. At least then we could blame the whole lot of the shysters as opposed to factions in each party!

The more you meet people the more you understand why Noah took animals instead of humans

[The VFM Addict]

For those who keep telling me that the EU cannot fail and that its a project that will succeed then perhaps I should not just quote Soros.   How’s about the mighty Wall Street Journal’s opinion?   Here’s what they say verbitim, including headline and sub-heading.

Incredible Shrinking Europe
The Continent’s grand unity project is failing, and its global influence is fading.

Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs.  As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.

More here.

Just take that in.   Economic output lower in 2017 than in 2009 while the other major engines of the world economy have grown and grown.   This is what a lot of us have been saying over and over.    The EU project has not allowed Europe to increase its share of world trade.  Its been in decline for 30 years and if anything that decline is accelerating.    The UK still, for many reasons, has influence in the world.   True its not as much as it once was.   But to my mind we must work with that rather than be seen just as one part of a failing bloc.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The WSJ has its own agenda too. The whole world outlook is gloomy, except for the moment the US – but I cannot understand why a Democratic Newspaper would not highlight that!

[The VFM Addict]

I think you missed half of the point, Ed.  It was more about the past proven record of the EU.    Since 2009 the EU has been failing.   I’ll quote it again;

“Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.”

Let that comparison sink in.   Indeed, the reality is that the EEC/EU share of world trade has been falling for around 35 years.   With no sign it will improve.   The EU is simply not delivering what it says on the tin.    Its one size fits all approach does not allow states to leverage their own talents, skills and opportunities.   For example, Italy is being hampered from taking the steps it needs to to appropriately steer its own economy.     I think Soros was really trying to say that the overly ferocious commitment to an ideology of the EU bureaucrats is not dissimilar from the USSR.   He was not saying that the ideology was the same.

If you re-read his article he is clearly saying that in the main emphasis must return to that primarily of a trading bloc.  He was not saying bin all of the rest of the EU’s objectives rather it is to  say get the horse before the cart or the EU is stuffed.     I don’t agree with him in that I think many of the other objectives of the EU are also flawed but I do understand where he was coming from and why he is saying it.   The EU’s economic trends of 35 years and the massive current rise of eurosceptism across the bloc mimics the trend of economic decline and growing dissatisfaction of the populous in the USSR that led to its collapse.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The past is the past, and in the words of every Financial Analyst “Past performance is no guarantee of future performance”. Remainers such as I look to the future and see it as pretty black as a result of Brexit. If I were young I would have upped sticks and  emigrated long ago.

[The VFM Addict]

Hot off the press – The German economy dipped by -0.2% in the third quarter of 2018, and flatlined at 0.0% by the end of the year.

Responding to your post specifically though – We Leavers look at the proven 35 years trend of economic decline in the EU; the fact that there is no sign of it reversing; the fact that we are doing better than Germany; and to numerous other failings of the EU and end up concluding just much as you think that emigration from the UK might be best, that the UK emigrating from the failing EU bloc is best.    I refer again to the Soros article as it was clear in his piece that he was not wholly convinced that the EU would )or could) change course to avoid its collapse.   I personally prefer to be outside a house when it structurally fails and falls down.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Just read a report here on the BBC.    Jack Allen, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, told the BBC;

“US tariffs on EU car exports, which US President Donald Trump has threatened, could have a major impact on Germany, Mr Allen said, but even if these are avoided the slowdown in the global economy means Germany is still only expected to grow by about 1% this year, compared with about 1.5% in 2018.”

Now consider.   The difference in German car exports to the USA and to the UK is very little; the USA 26.9 billion euros and the UK 25 billion euros.

It follows that if USA tariffs could have a major impact on Germany it is hard to argue that post Brexit tariffs in the case of No Deal would not also have a major impact on the German economy.   This is surely the kind of thing Soros was warning of.   If the EU sticks ideologically and dogmatically to the hard backstop resulting in a No Deal Brexit then the most dominant state in the EU; the very state which so often props up the EU financially, is going to get hammered.   The type of thing Soros was inherently warning would lead to EU collapse.   If dogma comes first in the EU then doom is inevitable.  No least in that if dogma damages the German economy and loses 100,000 jobs then the likes of the AfD will have an easy job growing in strength.

I believe we will find out soon whether the Eurocrats of Brussels or Angela Merkel hold the real power in the EU.   Because there is about to be a BIG clash of dogma versus pragmatism and that pretty much will be the only deciding factor of whether the hard backstop is softened or dropped.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Sorry – if you say Soros I think propaganda. That man is totally untrustworthy as proved by HIS wartime past.

However I do agree that trade barriers are not good for any economy. Now prove to me that we do not lose all the trade deals that the EU negotiated over the years and have to fall back on WTO tariff for the long period it will take to renegotiate them.

As Dave keeps pointing out Japan (for example) cannot just give us an automatic pass into its legal trade agreement with the EU. It would need a NEW trade agreement with the UK if it wanted to avoid giving the rest of the world its EU tariff rates. I am of course mainly referring to our exports such as Scotch Whisky. (370,000 yen/kl  if outside EU, now zero to EU members).

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Sorry – if you say Soros I think propaganda. That man is totally untrustworthy as proved by HIS wartime past. However I do agree that trade barriers are not good for any economy. Now prove to me that we do not lose all the trade deals that the EU negotiated over the years and have to fall back on WTO tariff for the long period it will take to renegotiate them. As Dave keeps pointing out Japan (for example) cannot just give us an automatic pass into its legal trade agreement with the EU. It would need a NEW trade agreement with the UK if it wanted to avoid giving the rest of the world its EU tariff rates. I am of course mainly referring to our exports such as Scotch Whisky. (370,000 yen/kl if outside EU, now zero to EU members).

As I understand it Dave is wrong.  Japan has been a member of the WTO since 1995 and GATT since 1955.   As you will know the WTO incorporated GATT.   It can follow such.   GATT Article 24 allows 10 years grace on existing deals.    The way is there to avoid tariffs provided the EU desires to prevent a hard Brexit.    An extension of the transition period is not strictly necessary just a commitment by the EU not to attempt to veto GATT Art.24 provisions.   10 years will give us all (the UK and EU) time for a technological solution to the N.I. border to be found and readied.

This in part explains.

Returning to Soros it is clear you disagree with my conclusions re his intent.   No problem.    Its just that I can’t see his intent could be read any other way than as I concluded.   I would be therefore be very interested if you could explain what you personally concluded his intent was in saying the EU must wise up or face collapse.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Why ever would the EU agree to that, assuming of course that they could?

This has not been the subject of any discussion in the press, and any mention of WTO is poo-poohed by the Brexiteers who irritatingly never address the critical trade details. Its all going to be so easy, the EU will roll-over and do whatever we ask as they (supposedly) have so much to lose.

Assuming they are legally able and willing to do what you suggest (doubtful) then I would speculate the EU will say fine, but it will cost you 90% of your normal nett EU contributions. Nothing is for nothing in this world. Let the ERG idiots wriggle out of that one!

[Ed P]

As you included a long quote on Soros and Capital Economics I do not feel embarrassed in setting out this quote from The Guardian:

Brexit has already cost the UK economy at least £80bn since the EU referendum, and a damaging no-deal scenario could force an emergency cut in interest rates, according to a Bank of England rate-setter.

Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016, the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.

Britain had lost about £40bn a year, or about £800m a week of lost income, he said, in the period since the referendum as its economy stalled while the rest of the world recorded one of its strongest expansions of the past decade.Vlieghe’s estimate for the weekly cost of Brexit so far is more than double the £350m the Leave campaign claimed could be saved on EU membership fees and instead spent on the NHS. The claim, emblazoned on the side of the campaign’s battlebus, became a key focus for debate in the run-up to the vote.

Vlieghe said in London on Thursday: “That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”

[The VFM Addict]

I would appreciate it if you did answer my question regarding what Soros’s intent was in your eyes; because it intrigues me.

As regards The Guardian, which is a heavily Remain biased journal, relies Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the BoE’s monetary policy committee.   You will understand if I quite rationally reject its thrust due to that.    Mystic Meg is better at predictions than they are.   The BoE predicted deep recession from the day after we voted Leave and mass unemployment and rabid inflation soon after that.   The exact reverse is the case, is it not?     There was no recession and we are out performing Germany and predicted to do so this year.  It is Germany with a flat-lining economy as reported today.   In the UK unemployment is pretty much the lowest ever and wage growth is outstripping inflation, which is also lower than the BoE predicted recently.   Indeed,  there is strong evidence of Project Fear playing a role in the BoE ‘s current predictions.    The EU, with no reason to big us up, has just increased its prediction of UK performance this year when the BoE is bigging it down(!).     Inward investment has not significantly fallen nor has there been the exodus of jobs in the finance markets.    Indeed it is impossible to find one point where the BoE has predicted anything other than totally incorrectly since 2000.    I note that the BBC like the BoE has also constantly pushed project fear.   It went big on Nissan but hardly a mention just a month or so ago when Toyota began building the world’s best selling car here; surprisingly the world’s best selling car is the Corolla.

Currently everyone is talking today’s threats by Ford.   But hell they have been pulling out of the UK since long before Brexit became an issue.   No Ford Cars built here since the very early 2000’s; 2002 or 2005 IIRC.     Brexit or no Brexit Ford will leave soon.   The real estate at Dagenham was bought when Dagenham was truly cheap countryside but now due to the urban expansion of London their plant is part of London and is probably the biggest potential real estate treasure chest ever seen.  They’d be mugs not to cease production of engines there, making a HUGE killing on the land and instead build in the Eastern EU states whether or not we remain in the EU.   Moreover their current boss is not an ‘Automobile Man’ but an ‘Accountant’ and certainly will have his eyes on that trick.    I happen to know folks who live in Dagenham and nearby in Barking.   Over the years all have said to me that it is amazing Ford hadn’t already left for that very reason – Who these days carries out an industrial process on prime real estate.  They’ve been expecting Ford to leave for years.   Brexit truly plays little part.

Anyway, back to Soros, what do you think his intent was?   I’m truly interested in case I’ve missed something.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I’m sure you will accept that the CIA has a long and ignominious history of running their own (at times illegal)  foreign policy agenda. This is frequently in direct opposition to stated US State Dept policies. If you then read the way that Soros has been directly linked with the CIA, you will get a better grasp for his agenda, and why you should distrust him.

[edit] if you question my use of ‘illegal’ just Google CIA links with drug smuggling in South East Asia and South America.

[The VFM Addict]

You seem sure of what Soros’s agenda is.   I can’t see that the CIA, despite all it skills and resources will be able to know what conclusions you are reaching in your own head.    So I ask again what do you believe his agenda/intent was in saying that the EU had better reform itself or face collapse?     I’m not asking for you to support your conclusions with masses of evidence.   A simple sentence or two would do.   You clearly have reached conclusions, please simply share them, Ed.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

Ed, you mean that the CIA behave a tiny bit like the Russians and the Chinese, though quite what that has to do with Europe I am not sure. Ah I get the link Soros has the Eu with its Euro and Putin’s Friends has the Mad-Uro in Venezuela, got it; only in those cases the love affairs are the reciprocal of each other. I am surprised no one has munched on that shining beacon of achievement Italy where things have been well and truly ‘Euroed’. Don’t tell me all those nasty Italians are also working for the CIA, or are they.

[Ed P]

Richard, I’ve no idea, but the CIA have worked with some truly nasty people in the past such as Al Qaeda. They have been a law unto themselves.

In the past they often ran sub-rosa operations against any nation or state they saw offering a political and/or economic challenge to the US’s hegemony. Starting twenty or so years ago the EU offered such a challenge when OPEC started pricing in a Euro inclusive basket, and running a foreign policy that challenged that of the US.

All I would say as far as Soros is concerned, I would  love to see if or when he started shorting the Euro, as he did with Deutsch Bank.

Having answered the questions posed to me I would appreciate your response on why the EU should give away their Trade Deals without exacting a stiff payment (even higher if we pauper ourselves with a Hard Brexit).

[Richard]

Ed, don’t forget that the friend of almost no one Putin, also hates the EU with a visceral hatred (that he also extends to the rest of the west). Perhaps Putin has bought off George to do his very dirty work, he is rumoured to have a hand in the yellow vest movement and sundry other destabilising efforts, no one for fracking by any chance? However, returning to more solid ground there is a lot not going too well at the moment and you have not really addressed the problems of the great shrinking Europe. I wonder if some of the industries that were ‘EUed’ in the UK will rise from their ashes once more, though an improvement in education to create people capable of running them would also be a non-optional UK need.

[Ed P]

Richard, if you can show links between Soros and the KGB then I’ll happily include them in my list of his dubious friends.

I do not care if others think my dislike and distrust of Soros is irrational because it dates back to the days of Thatcher joining the ERM and Soros’s destruction of Sterling, but it does, so don’t even ask me to read his propaganda.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed, I understand your mistrust for Soros.   I wouldn’t trust him as far as I can throw a Steam-Roller.   What struck me about his words were that he appeared to  be, and on close analysis of his text was, trying to alert the EU Commission to the fact that they must recognise that their too rigid adherence to ideology and dogma is what gives the eurosceptic parties across the EU their life blood.   I cannot myself logically disagree with that.

Let me ask you a very simple question, Ed, do you think that with his article Soros was trying to steer the EU into a direction where it is more likely to survive or do you think he was trying to hasten its collapse?    Surely he desires one or the other; even though quite frankly one can equally make a fortune in which ever direction it goes provided that one anticipate the direction correctly or cause a direction to occur.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I said before I have zero interest in reading and even less interest in analysing the biased propaganda of Soros. Anything he communicates has a dollar motive to it. Sorry but that is my last word on him.

I take it from your repeated evasions that you are trying to avoid answering my questions?

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