Forumite Members › General Topics › Politics › Europe › Brexit now = CETA +/-?
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Dave Rice.
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February 3, 2019 at 12:08 pm #30373
Looks like no honours for any Hard-Brexit MP, as the Royals are going to be uprooted from London to Canada if they actually follow the Cold War plans. link
February 3, 2019 at 12:25 pm #30374If the contingency plans have not been updated for a very long time then someone needs to be fired. They should be updated on a more or less constant basis, since contact numbers, routes, people and options change almost on if not actually on a daily basis.
Hopefully they will not follow Macron’s model for dealing with unrest. Use plastic bullets, but aim high to blind and disfigure thus creating martyrs.
February 3, 2019 at 3:10 pm #30377Hopefully they will evacuate May and her cohorts and we can get on with life!
The Cold War ‘plans’ were alluded to in the Times article. Good luck with using the old UK funk-holes as many are highly insanitary or taken-over by Marijuana Growers!
February 3, 2019 at 3:38 pm #30378? Her Royal HIGHness ⚗️?️???
February 3, 2019 at 3:59 pm #30383An interesting question arises here. Who prompted the release of this information? Was it Remain motivated individuals in order to ramp up project fear or was it Leave motivated individuals knowing folks would see such as preposterous fear-mongering? I’m thinking it was Leaver motivated simply because it is likely to ‘infect’ other, but perhaps legitimate, fear stories with a taint of absurdity. Also, as it will never happen then when it does not if hard Brexit occurs its another thing Brexiteers can point to and say – “See it WAS just fear mongering as we said it was”.
Either way Machiavellianism is in an opportunity rich environment at present.
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February 3, 2019 at 4:32 pm #30388Having been on an emergency committee many moons ago, all sorts of scenarios are examined and plans made for each. Some take time to effect and many different people can get involved.
As Richard alluded in many cases this will involve transportation and logistics planning, and having had personal painful experience of Grayling’s organizational skills it could be any one of tens of thousands who leaked the info!
February 3, 2019 at 4:42 pm #30389I am no supporter of the Royals: as I have said before, IMO they represent an outmoded system and should go after the current monarch passes away. But I have a mental picture of thousands of rioters, faced with a tiny, very old lady asking if “Could one desist from causing such a commotion, please?”
If it is true that Her Maj and fellow Royals are to be evacuated, it may be time to remind them that Her Maj’s own father, the late King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (the Queen Mother), remained at Buck House during the Blitz. When German bombs actually struck the Palace:
EXCERPT –
“The bombing, along with the royal family’s refusal to flee Britain against Foreign Office advice, was to win the King and Queen affection and fellow-feeling across the country. The Queen declared: “The children will not leave unless I do. I shall not leave unless their father does, and the king will not leave the country in any circumstances, whatever.”
And anything that keeps Prince Philip in London and away from driving on roads around Sandringham , is to be applauded ….
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I'm out.February 3, 2019 at 5:46 pm #30393Someone has already picked up on the point that the main contingency planning also included such as the inner cabinet and senior members of the opposition, though quite how that might be organised these days boggles my mind. At one time the plans used to involve such as Croydon and Hendon airfields and ‘easy’ access routes from central London. I trust those points have been given some attention as neither are exactly prime operational airfields any more. Other more operationally practical options do exist though access routes to them are none of my concern.
As to who leaked, there are plenty of mischief makers who would relish the chance to stir the pot over what should be and hopefully is routine planing management. As ED said, all sorts of scenarios are usually considered if only to have a range of possible reaction methods pre-considered for when the totally unexpected happens. When the sh1t hits the fan it is better to order a specific plan that can be followed and subsequently modified than to sit round worrying and wondering; that is when the wheels really come off.
February 3, 2019 at 6:52 pm #30401Yep, if the powers that be think their a***s are in danger, they can always unite and agree to organise safety for said a***s, with great efficiency and competence.
If they could only unite, agree, demonstrate and apply similar efficiency and competence to the current state of the country, perhaps we would not be in such a bloody mess.
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I'm out.February 3, 2019 at 6:56 pm #30403If they could only unite, agree, demonstrate and apply similar efficiency and competence to the current state of the country, perhaps we would not be in such a bloody mess.
Like fairy tales as kid Bob? We all know that will never happen. ?
February 3, 2019 at 7:05 pm #30404I can imagine things kicking off along the lines of the poll tax riots, but that’s about it.
If we leave on No Deal the real trouble won’t be bricks through windows, it’ll be the silent majority (who could have voted either way) making their views known. For all that this is an exercise in keeping the Conservative Party together I feel it will be their undoing at the ballot box. It could so easily have been the making of them had it been handled in a truly inclusive way.
The problem with invoking the war time spirit etc. is that this isn’t a war and the EU are not our enemy. I wonder if Francois will repeat his anti German Anti Airbus stunt with the Japanese and Nissan? I mean what a bloody cheek, moving to a country that won’t be subject to restrictions and tariffs. Straight out of Somerset Capital Management’s book what, what.
Oh, I’m sorry, neither had anything to do with Brexit did they?
February 4, 2019 at 12:18 pm #30412I might be inclined to agree with you Dave had Nissan been moving production in the Europe. But it is not. It is moving it to Japan which is now viable given the Japan Free Trade Deal. That would have been the case also even were we not leaving the EU. After all of the dodgy dealing with Nissan directors of late I am sure repatriating jobs to the homeland buys and is intended in part to buy them brownie points at home. One must remember that the potential customs tariffs if they built the X-Trail in the UK are far outweighed by shipping costs when production is in Japan and their market in mainland Europe. So this seems likely not to be a solely economic move. This truly has nothing to do with Brexit and more to do with the EU-Japan Free Trade deal that facilitates repatriation of jobs.
What this does highlight is that EU free trade deals could as regards some industries result in significant job loses. Just about any manufacturing that is manual worker intensive would I suspect be absolutely certain to leave EU soil if there were a China-EU trade or India-EU trade deal. They pay workers far less in both those states than even workers in ex-Soviet bloc EU states earn.
The reality, is it not, that the UK is not and can never realistically be a sustainable industrial manufacturing state either in or out of the EU; unless one wants to cut the minimum wage by at least three quarters of what it is now. Even that would leave UK workers earning more an hour than those in India or China.
The UK economy can only remain viable based on services and cutting edge technology where we already hold a lead. It cannot be dismissed that English is our first language, the de-facto international language in so many industries, also comes into the mix. I’ve seen it at international medical symposium where Finns and Italians have trouble conversing with each other and default to English so much so that both seem more comfortable talking to Brits in the first place. The domination of American culture has also strengthened this reliance on English. I don’t know if you are aware but the majority of TV programmes in Sweden are transmitted in English. Don’t get me wrong. I am not suggesting any superiority on our part. In many ways its an accident of history that English dominates and perhaps even more down to American world influence than ours but that such is our first language provides something of an edge that should not be undervalued especially in the financial and scientific markets.
I notice that folks here have often said what have we to export that anyone wants if we leave the EU? In reality one could equally say what do we have we to export if we stay in it? The two are surely the same. Industrial manufacturing is pretty much dead in the UK or at the very least terminally dying. That is a malaise that will similarly infect the EU as it strikes trade deals with low labour cost states or those which would if possible repatriate such jobs. Nissan pretty much proves the second clause. If building within ones eventual market were vital they would have moved X-Trail production into the EU. They did not.
As I see it and put simply the states of the EU that economically survive this century will be those that do so (in the simplest terms) by selling their specialist skills and not their brawn. The UK has been moving down that road for several decades. We have a head start. If you want to see that reality in action just look at Dyson. Research and Development remains in the UK, production is moved off to low labour cost states. That’s the way the whole EU will go as there are more free trade deals.
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February 4, 2019 at 12:43 pm #30414If Free Trade destroys British jobs, then that appears to destroy most of the Brexieer’s arguments that we need to go towards a free trade zone in the manner espoused by Rees-Mogg.
It is not Free Trade we need but investment in both our work force and education, these are the things that would make us competitive. The Malthouse group would have done better to look at Estonia as well as Singapore for their economic models.
February 4, 2019 at 1:03 pm #30415Ah yes education, it does need something.
More money is always nice but what we really need to do is get rid of the rest of the right on 60’s liberal cr*p.
February 4, 2019 at 3:59 pm #30420Yes Dyson left R&D here. I wonder if the tax breaks for R&D had anything to do with his decision?
Huge ships arrive here at Avonmouth docks loaded with cars, on average two a day. There are 500 acres of land dedicated to car storage here. Look at their website and note the ship, the Atlas Leader registered in Tokyo. 600,000 cars a year come through Bristol docks. “Cars arrive from all over the world: Toyota Hiluxes from South Africa and C-HRs from Turkey, Hondas from Mexico, MGs from China, Ssangyongs from Korea, Fiats from Italy, Jeeps from the US”.
The bulk transport costs will not outweigh the tariffs on the imported engines etc and the exported finished car. You are just framing your argument for the audience that wants to believe what you say by using what seems plausible but is just made up to fit.
What has the fact we speak English got to do with anything? My son is doing his PhD with many EU colleagues as the nature of it is such that a single University cannot do it alone. They receive EU funding to do this important research and Bath is seen as a good place to do it, but guess what? The European post grads will not be funding themselves out of their own pockets to come to Bath. The Profs are already being head hunted by American institutions as well as European (a lot of them are from the EU, not because they are cheap but because they are bloody good at what they do).
It’s just more populist nonsense.
February 4, 2019 at 7:15 pm #30422Dave, the vehicle imports into Avonmouth are matched by the Humber ports of Grimsby and Immingham:
We often travel to the docks to watch the shipping dock, usually into Immingham. Driving through Grimsby and across to the M18/M62 links, means passing Grimsby docks and seeing all the acres of vehicles parked, with often dozens of transporters queuing to pick up loads. Driving on to Immingham, means seeing more vehicles there.
Busiest ports in the UK, Grimsby and Immingham:
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I'm out.February 4, 2019 at 7:59 pm #30423@EdP
Ed, I think you missed the whole point of my post. Free trade deals facilitate predominantly the moving of labour intensive manufacturing to areas with low labour costs. Honestly, Ed, how much labour intensive manufacturing would remain in the EU if it had free trade deals with India or China? With free trade deals far better to manufacture there and no tariffs when you ship the stuff into the EU.
However, Ed, we have not been a labour intensive manufacturing economy for quite a few decades now. Therefore we lose few jobs by free trade deals. Our exports are services, tech R&D, high tech limited production products, etc. That is to say things that cannot be done in the workhouses of China and India – or – where its hardly worth moving production there because labour costs were not a huge percentage of producing you product. With FTA’s we gain because we can import manufactured goods cheaply and the things we do export become cheaper tariff free imports for our customers. So if anyone gets the best out of free trade deals its us because our labour intensive manufacturing is already close to non-existent. Can’t you see that.
Tell me what’s the average labour cost in China versus Germany? The difference is not something business can ignore. An EU free trade deal with China and even BMW and VAG might find it insane not to shift production.
Dave, it is clear you do not read the links I post. Reuters were clear that the main reason we have not seen an exodus in the financial services markets is down to the fact that we are an International centre that works in English as its first language. Here’s the link again. That’s what ‘English’ has to do with it.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 4, 2019 at 8:09 pm #30425On another issue as I’ve been saying for weeks the WA Backstop instead of protecting the GFA actually violates it. Now Lord Trimble and a few others who were instrumental in the GFA have announced they are taking the matter to law. A Judicial Review is being sought on the basis that the backstop violates the the Principle of Consent enshrined in the GFA.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 5, 2019 at 8:58 am #30427You seem, quite rightly, concerned about globalisation. In the IT Industry we’ve been subject to it for decades. CSC India is now so big it can’t get the quality of employees it wants as the graduates of local Universities just get mopped up. They are not interested in anyone moving from here to there (but they did like it when they were helped to set up). A Marigold Hotel arrangement may have been quite nice as an alternative to redundancy ?
So lets impose tariffs between us and our major customer and vice versa. How is that going to do anything but hasten the need to cut costs? There are already car plants in China, if we go for the zero tariff route we open up our market to their output, and India, Mexico and Malaysia. Transporting cars around the world is already a well established model, as you’ve seen Bristol docks does well out of it.
Zero tariffs would steady the cost of the parts we import to assemble our cars (Nissan was 85%) but what about the inevitable drop in the £? And of course the finished thing will be subject to the tariffs of the country buying them. Any deals we had as part of the EU may not be there. Dr Fox hasn’t got one over the line yet, has he? And over half our output goes to the EU anyway. Lets not forget the cost of the increased paper work even if there are no taxes and potential spanners in the works of the JIT model due to customs hold ups.
According to workers at Nissan “The business in Sunderland is very modular. Everything can be put on the back of a wagon and shipped to Spain”. Having looked through the doors at Airbus it’s similar. Big sheds basically. The contents was put in them, it can be taken back out. They move it around and between sites after all.
I’m sure the Nissan decision wasn’t just down to Brexit, indeed I don’t believe they’ve claimed it is, but it must have made their decision a whole lot easier. The great blame game has just started. There’s going to be a whole lot more of this.
They need to get a deal done, although I fear it’s already too late. Businesses will be hitting the panic button and making irreversible decisions. This game of chicken must be costing the country a small fortune, how can it be in the best interests of the country as is claimed?
February 5, 2019 at 9:17 am #30429Just to respond to Allen, I’m not sure that there is ANY labour intensive industry left in the UK – that started disappearing in Maggy’s days.
All the Tory whinging about low productivity never looks at the investment/person. The French have much higher investment/person and much higher productivity (and wages) than British workers. Brexit has now pretty much killed investment, so productivity will slump as inflationary pressures kick in.
Great economic mismanagement yet again.
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