Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

I agree with Steve – integration is a vital requirement of any healthy society.

IMO Blair cocked it up for years with his stupid multicultural society, as it just encouraged divisiveness and gave new-comers an excuse not to adapt to local social mores.

[D-Dan]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

I really like the poles. The first wave we got were the useless drunks but now we have the young couples with toddlers. Couldnt be more polite.

 

Personally (and as a leaver), I live in a privately rented flat, and there are probably more Eastern European migrants here than indigenous Brits. The only ones that have ever been a problem are, the indigenous Brits (to the point that at least two that I’m aware of have either been kicked out, or are under house arrest – drugs dealing).

My vote was never about immigration, but was always about the dictatorial EU government imposing stupid (and in many cases, unworkable) laws on member states. The latest is GDPR, which if you examine the law compared with many domestic laws, not just here, but across Europe, and the practicalities, is quite simply unworkable.

Meanwhile, heavy fines are mandated for breaching them.

Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

[Ed P]

Sorry to disappoint you Dan, but unless you want to completely stuff our trade and data interchange with the EU then regardless of the Brexit flavour you desire, all  British companies (just like the US ones) will have to comply with GDPR. All Brexit does is to ensure that we will have ZERO rights to amend or even provide input to any future legislation during its drafting.

I personally welcome GDPR as it gives us back a little more control over our personal data.The principles behind GDPR are both simple and laudable. link

Implementation is however a different thing. I will agree that many companies are still struggling and  not fully compliant and potentially could suffer consequences. I’ll also agree that companies are still finding it difficult to build an advertising model that is fully GDPR compliant.

[The VFM Addict]

I had a discussion with a group of old friends last night, the majority (just) are Remainers. I am, as most folks know, a Brexiteer. As usual a couple of the Remainers said I didn’t know or at least that most Leave voters didn’t know what we were voting for. After last night I think I agree with them because a couple of fellow Leavers in the group acted like the light had suddenly come on after I explained what the EU considers to be democracy.

Explaining why the EU is undemocratic I have always found to be a difficult and complex task. For some reason last night I suddenly realised that in reality it is not difficult to explain. And when I found the simple way to do so I found that not one Remainer there was fully aware of what I told them. A couple said that what I was saying couldn’t possibly be true. One is the kind of guy who will go off and check to the nth degree just to prove one wrong. I’ve just had a call from him this morning and an apology. I’m not sure he would now vote Leave if there were a second ref. but I suspect he might as he seemed quite shocked to discover that what I had said was true. I’m going to share what I said last night.

I asked how Remainers would feel if at Westminster only the House of Lords could propose legislation and the House of Commons could neither propose nor repeal legislation. None liked the idea of that. Then I told them that that is how the EU operates. Only the EU Commission made up of Commissioners appointed by countries in the same way as our non-hereditary peers are appointed to the HoL, can propose EU legislation and the European Parliament (the Elected MEP’s) can neither propose nor repeal legislation no matter how strongly it feels. It is as simple as that.

I said that unless one would be happy for the HoL to run Westminster and the HoC to have no power whatsoever to propose or repeal legislation then how could one ever be happy with the EU’s Democracy because that is exactly how the EU is structured. The only voices I heard at that point were those who simply couldn’t believe it. The other Remainers and indeed even two of those that were like me Brexiteers looked shocked or as regards the Brcxiteers as if I had just walked into their church with cast iron proof that God exists.

Funny, isn’t it how after struggling for more years than I can remember trying to find a simple way to explain why the EU is anti-democratic a few pints of Fullers with a bunch of old friends that I haven’t seen in some time, for reasons I don’t understand, led to me to finding the simple explanation that has escaped me for so long.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

What “democracy” do I, and the millions like me, have living in a safe seat constituency?

As much as I disagree with their politics, how can UKIP have had 13% (3.8 million) of the popular vote and no representation? (reverse that for the SNP).

Would you vote to leave a system as clearly undemocratic and biased as that? Or would you give the beneficiaries even more power?

All political systems suck.

[Ed P]

UK ‘regulations’ are also completely undemocratic and always have been. Parliament just drafts general legislation then leaves it to the unelected appointed ‘Regulators’ to draft rules that have the binding force of law. If you ask ‘Who regulates the Regulators’ the answer is no-one!

 

[The VFM Addict]

I don’t disagree with either of you. You are both spot on. But we might be able to change the UK system by, for example, adopting proportional representation or setting up systems to regulate regulators.   However, we would have less than zero chance of changing EU systems.  Not even Cameron could muster more than one other member vote to stop a total alcoholic getting voted in by the remaining 27.   Take a bow (or another Brandy) Jean-Claude.

I suppose what I’m saying is that I can’t see that our system being imperfect is a good reason to stay part of an even more imperfect system.   If the HoL tried to take power even in this relatively placid land sooner or later there would surely be rebellion.   I see no reason to conclude, given that many European populations are even more volatile than us, that there will not be serious rebellion in the EU at some point in the future because the elected MEPs can neither propose or real legislation.    Folks seem to wonder why the extreme right is growing in power across the EU. It’s ‘kin obvious to me.  For so many reasons the inflexible rules of the EU, be it re anything from migration to monetary policy, provide the fuel with which the far right light their bonfires.

Take a look around. Look at the anger growing here as the May’s government betrays the referendum decision of the majority, albeit a small one.    Look at the volume of angry letters sent to the Telegraph this week.   Were this France there would already be riots and fire in the streets, wouldn’t there not.

I have a way out of the current divide.   Just extend the current ‘All Inclusive Approach’.  That might just possibly lead to folks feeling their votes counted and quell the current anger.    Let us either move immediately to proportional representation or decide that whoever wins the next GE must appoint a proportionate number of MP’s from the opposition parties as Ministers.  That won’t happen will it.  The two major parties won’t support PR nor will they appoint opposing ministers to their cabinet.   Therefore if the system in the UK is to remain rigidly FPTP then surely the entire current cabinet should at be made up of Brexiteers should it not, because Brexit was first past the post.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Changing the regulatory environment has less than a snowball’s chance in hell.Too many piggies at the trough and too many inept/lazy Politicians and Civil Servants. The history of ‘Regulators’ stretches back before the Middle Ages probably even before William I. That fact alone brings with it a huge amount of political inertia.

Fancy tangling with the Regulator of the UK Gangmasters, not me with a name like that!

[The VFM Addict]

The Guardian are this evening reporting the latest Opinium poll.     Labour voting intentions stable at 40% Tories beginning to dive and down to 36%   UKIP up from 3% to 8% in just a week.   So its clear where the Tory vote is going.    My bet is that the effect of that fall is even greater than the percentage suggests because those moving to UKIP seem to be Tory party members who are the canvassers who get the Tory vote out come elections.    I cannot see the trend reversing even if the Tories move to a Brexiteer Leader    Who would now believe any Tory Leader who declared Brexit would now mean Brexit?   Unless that leader was JRM and there’s no way that the Parliamentary Tory party will put him as one of the two candidates offered to the membership.

My money is now very firmly on either a Labour majority or heaven forbid a Labour/SNP coalition following the next GE whenever that is.

Thanks, Theresa.   When you said ‘Brexit means Brexit’ you should have added ‘and BRINO means Corbyn’ because its quite clear now that it does.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The options are even more constrained as any move to ‘full’ Brexit stuffs the Northern Ireland border, brings out the DUP and triggers a vote of ‘no confidence’, and an almost certain snap election.

DUP quote “”We have made it clear that we will not tolerate any political or economic threat to Northern Ireland’s position in the UK.”

[The VFM Addict]

Not really, Ed.    The DUP are increasingly irrelevant.    The current polling depending on whether or not there is equal distribution projects to at best 270 Tory seats and at worst 250.    If those figures continue then May is toast quite rapidly and even with DUP support a new leader would find it difficult to stay in power  and not to go for a GE.     The reality is that now no way the Tories can prevent major defeat at the next GE.    From here on it its about damage limitation and keeping the defeat as small as possible.   The only way to do that is to stop the Tory life threatening bleed to UKIP.    The longer the bleed is allowed to continue the greater the damage.    Rationally any new Tory leader must look to the longer term future and not the present.   So my bet is they will choose a young leader who will move towards a hard Brexit and blame the DUP if that becomes impossible.   Even a Brexit Ref2 would not stop the Tory>UKIP bleed.   It might even increase its flow.

As for the Irish border problem it is not what it seems.   EIRE needs the UK land bridge for its trade with the EU.   It has not the shipping container capacity to anywhere near survive without it.    No matter what the EU say it would itself not dare to install a hard border or to risk losing the UK land bridge its economy would collapse qyute literally instantly.   It trade very little with the rest of the world.   So as long as we do not enforce a hard border there will not be one.    A ‘land bridge’ agreement is possible.   Containers sealed in EIRE which remain sealed until once again on EU territory with the UK acting merely as a bridge.    Funnily enough that is effectively what happens with shipped containers at present anyway if one thinks about it.   They leave EIRE travel through the UK without being opened (i.e. through UK waters) and are only opened again once on the EU mainland.

Solving the Irish border problem is simply a case of calling EIRE’s bluff.   That is to say declare that we won’t set up a hard border but EIRE can if it wants – and – we are more than willing to allows sealed containers to traverse UK soil as at present.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I’m afraid that the Agriculture sector (Eire’s biggest export earner) stuffs up your theory. Round-tripping the old EU farming subsidies was always an art-form across the border. A hard Brexit without some degree of commonality would make it close to impossible to manage.

In money terms we export more goods to Eire than they do to us.

However, what you say demonstrates that ways can be found of making May’s compromise soft Brexit quite workable for the Irish border question.

[Ed P]

Ed P wrote:

Make it a three way referendum. a) Full Brexit and the hell with the Irish border/British Manufacturing b) CETA +/- c) Reject Brexit

I see that Justine Greening is now pretty much proposing this as a way of stopping her party jumping over the cliff towards a Corbyn Government.

Although this is attractive to me I am so heartedly sick of all the In-Breds fighting one another that I would rather see a Corbyn Government. At least that would not drag us down the path of completely destroying the manufacturing and technology sectors.

[Dave Rice]

I cannot see how the Tories can do anything other than dump us out with a disastrous no deal. They are holding each other up to ransom.

Whatever happens Jacob Rees Mogg will still be rich and his kids will all go to Eton.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

No you do not want a Marxist Corbin government Ed

[Dave Rice]

Neither do we want a cast adrift go it alone country with a weak government not even capable of agreeing with themselves having to bend the knee to the likes of Trump.

[The VFM Addict]

On the latest polls there is not the slightest chance of a Labour Government.    One about to be published has UKIP now up to 11% with both Labour and Cons dropping percentages.    So I do expect JC to become PM but PM of a Labour/SNP coalition government not a Labour Government.   So a guarantee of Scot IndyRef2 is pretty much certain.   How Labour would handle that I don’t know?    A suspension of cabinet responsibility perhaps with Lab Ministers free to campaign against Scot. Ind  and SNP ministers obviously campaigning for.     What a mess that will be.   Not least because Scot. Ind. if it occurred would tip Westminster and mean another GE would need to take place – and – with Scot. out of the union the UKIP percentage of the total UK vote would rocket.

Batten down the hatches.   We are in for the mother of all storms and one constitutional crisis after another.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Better to support people who have their assets and investments in this country rather than people who salt their assets overseas. Jacob Rees Mogg for example. (see Paradise papers)

[The VFM Addict]

All politicians are troughers and will work whatever is best for their personal interests be they UK and EU politicians.

The difference as I see it is that we can vote out UK politicians bur not the EU elite.   Remember  – Only the EU Commission (appointed EU Lords in effect) can propose EU legislation.   Th EU’s elected representatives, MEP’s, can neither propose nor repeal EU legislation.    My view is perhaps no different from many in 1939.   The right of self-determination far outweighs the costs that result from standing up for it.

I truly do begin to wonder as I listen to Remainers in general whether, had they been around in 1939, they would have argued that we should not have stood up for democracy because it would have cost us too much.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

If we did opt out of WW2, we may still have an empire, and not had 60 years of dept payment to the USA, not had to had over out atomic work, jet work and everything out Thr larder to get them interested.

So there could be some great reasons to of not entered WW2.

However what we thought was right is what we did, and it cost us greatly. The parrell to brexit is a stretch, Especally given we are split on what we think is right atm, and it won’t coast a few hundred uk lives either way.

Though I don’t like to distinguish uk life’s with any other nations lives. I hate the argument, that a UK, EU, US life is worth more than say an Iraqis or Afghan life.

Life is life. Let’s all get along. You come her, I’ll go there etc… We should expand the EU, try and get everyone under the same brolly.

Not that I like the EU that much, but it’s a start, by leaving we will be taking a backwards step. The money cost is irrelevant. It’s all imaginary anyhow. Just like boarders.

All weapons used for control.

 

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