Forumite Members › General Topics › Politics › Europe › Brexit now = CETA +/-?
- This topic has 1,833 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 7 months ago by
Dave Rice.
-
AuthorPosts
-
January 31, 2019 at 7:39 pm #30306
Good Article. I see its author, Prof Ray Kinsella, holds Uni Chairs in N.I. and Dublin. His subject is Banking and Financial Services. From what I see on the net he is well respected. Reading the article I have to say he makes entirely logical arguments some of which I have not see tendered before. Its a great read.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 31, 2019 at 7:43 pm #30307I have suspected for some time, that the Irish might start to really think about the real effects of being the most “offshore” and separated part of the EU, without the Buffer Zone that is the UK.
At least the Irish are shifting the ‘blame’ from the UK and Brexit. Thoughts may change in Ireland, but change in Ireland has in the past been accompanied by civil unrest.
IREXIT! The final, most ridiculous joke at the EU’s expense. And if it happens, within 12 months Dublin will revert to blaming the UK again.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.January 31, 2019 at 8:20 pm #30309They get about a net 2Billion euros from the EU so they would need a big incentive to do an IREXIT.
January 31, 2019 at 9:25 pm #30312If there was a No Deal Brexit they’d need far, far more than that just to marginally survive. I’d have to look it up but I seem to recall that we account for about 78% of Eire’s exports and most of the other 22% has to flow through the UK to get to its ultimate destination. Of course if it was a truly hard No Deal Brexit then the the EU is £39B down to start with plus our net contributions each year. On top of that the French and German economies are stalling with Germany’s growth predictions for next year having just been halved. Italy is also technically in recession and with a hard Brexit I suspect there will be fewer UK tourists going to all of the Med. states for a year or two. All in all the EU’s purse would be strained in the extreme. I just can’t see the German electorate being happy with having to bail out yet another country, can you?
I think folks truly do not realise how the objectives of ‘protecting the project’ clash with the realities of protecting each individual states’ economy. The interests of the ‘project’ all too often clash with the interests and desires of the individual states; as we have also seen recently with Italy, Poland and Hungry. Just how fragile the project truly is is being slowly exposed at present. I suspect the cracks will become even more obvious over the next month or so.
I don’t buy this thing about the EU always sticking to its rules and dicta. It was against EU law and Euro rules to bail out Greece but look how that was brushed aside when push came to shove.
It will become clear that if the EU refuses to bend on the backstop then the EU is facing more of an existential crisis than if it does bend. Because either – (a) it will have to show that it does not stand by its members and let Eire drown – or – (b) it will have to bail out Eire and give the Eurosceptic parties across the EU huge ammunition right at election time in the form of the huge financial burden that that bail out would or will soon impose on the main EU states.
I’d lay a bet that in the case of a No Deal Brexit the Euro would be under every bit as much pressure as the Pound.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 1, 2019 at 8:13 am #30319All organisations bend their rules when they want to, look what’s happening in Westminster. They are all the same all over the world.
Why are you so set on mutually assured destruction? I just don’t get it.
It seems you will pay any price to get your ideological goal, it really is cut off your nose to spite your face with the hope the nose will grow back ignoring any evidence to the contrary.
I can’t help but be reminded of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tInMR7QQUVc
February 1, 2019 at 9:00 am #30321Dave, I could of course respond by asking you why you are blind to the dangerous consequences financial and political of remaining in the dysfunctional EU. The reality is that we hold opposing views both of the consequences leaving the EU and of they way in which we leave the EU.
The reality is that no-one can predict with certainty what the result of any potential outcome is. Politicians, along with Financial and Business Experts predicted we would be sunk if we did not join the Euro. They were wrong. Likewise the same predicted the Pound, Employment and the Economy would crash the minute we voted out. That did not happen either. Employment levels are the best ever. The Pound is about where it should be given that experts were saying it was about 13% overvalued pre the Ref vote. The Economy is flying by comparison to the trends in France, Germany and Italy. Inward investment is also booming which everyone said would slump. I could say why do you ignore the writing on the wall? Have you noticed how this month despite a No Deal Brexit becoming even more likely the Pound has actually been strengthening markedly against the Euro and Dollar.
I do take your point about MAD. But MAD actually stops destruction. It worked to keep the world from nuclear war or war in Europe at least for more than six decades, did it not? The same is true here. There is only mutually destruction if both sides want it. Are you saying that the EU is so ideologically fanatical that it will prefer destruction to compromise? As I explained earlier failing to compromise on the backstop could generate an existential crisis for the EU due to the ‘Eire Effect’. It seems to me that it is the EU that are threatening mutually destruction or at the very least the destruction of Eire. It is utter tribe to say they are just trying to protect the GFA. Their backstop violates the GFA because the constitutional consequences of such are not with the consent of N.I. which the GFA guarantees such changes must be.
I wonder, did you read Lord Bew’s Policy Note linked to earlier or Prof. Kinsella’s article in the Irish Times also linked to earlier. If not you may find them illuminating. Closing back on the principle of MAD, provided both sides recognise that MAD is the likely outcome unless compromise is reached then such MD never occurs. Sooner or later there had to be a red line. The backstop is ours and frankly no-one can say we have not ourselves if anything overly compromised in every other respect.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 1, 2019 at 11:25 am #30324Visa free EU travel for Brits (90 days in any 180 days) now agreed by EU Council even if its a No Deal Brexit. Seems the EU is getting more and more real, recognising that UK tourism is a vital income stream for many EU states. Now folks do you think they are going to agree that and then hinder air travel? Of course not. Scratch two more fear stories off Project Fear then. Oh and what about the food scare stories. French farmers are far too aggressive a bunch when it comes to protests to allow Macron to sanction such disruption – Yellow Jackets with pitchforks I suspect !!!
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 1, 2019 at 11:55 am #30327The EU has been taking this serious for 2 years. Unlike the uk.
February 1, 2019 at 12:27 pm #30329What REALLY tees me off is the way Gutless May is putting the preservation of the Conservative party ahead of the country. This ‘Government’ of ‘kick it in the long grass until it disappears’ is extremely damaging to the country. Parliament has shown almost unanimously (including the DUP) that a Hard Brexit is just not acceptable. Trying to play chicken when you have much more to lose is a very stupid strategy. The EU have long recognised that a hard Brexit hurts everyone, but it hurts the UK far more, and far more quickly.
About the only thing in the Government’s favour is that it is easy to cut off all cash cards!
The Food retailers have warned of shortages, the Government has started to roll-out the Emergency Committees. Food, medicines, and fuel are already seen as primary trouble-spots and having a number one a-hole like Greyling in charge of distribution will exacerbate all problems.
February 1, 2019 at 1:28 pm #30331I think you forget the Eire dynamic. Eire relies on the UK both as an export market and land bridge to the EU. A hard No Deal Brexit would be instantly catastrophic for Eire and it would require over night a level of financial support that would in all probability exceed that which was needed by Greece. And need it at a time when the economies of German and France are stalling and it has lost a net contributor (i.e. us). I simply do not see the EU being able to bail out Eire. That is the EU’s big problem. Let Eire sink or reach into German pockets again at a time when its own exports to us would be falling. I truly don’t think that the German electorate would stomach it. And all this would happen just before EU elections. AfD would blossum on a staggering scale.
If we hold firm the WA will be reopened. The EU will swallow Malthouse, which as a deal is still hugely a win for the EU. Frankly if Nicky Morgan is on-board for Malthouse one would have to be a truly fanatical Remainer not to be.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 1, 2019 at 1:41 pm #30333Hot off the Press – One hour ago Reuters trashed another sacred cow of Project Fear. What exodus of finance jobs? There really hasn’t been one:
“Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, UBS, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are seeking to fill 1,545 new roles in Britain, numbers up to January 22 show.
In Germany and France – the two countries predicted to see the biggest influx of financial services from Britain as a result of Brexit – just 301 roles have been listed.
Only Deutsche Bank is looking to hire more people in Germany than in Britain, with 133 German vacancies posted online compared to 132 in the UK.”
and
“Culturally, Paris is French, Frankfurt is German but London is international. The Americans – who own this industry – want to operate in an English speaking environment. No one wants to go,” said Martin Armstrong, partner at headhunting firm Armstrong International.
See here.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 1, 2019 at 2:55 pm #30335I’m sure all the people in the Food Industry, Car Industry, Welsh Farmers, Cheese Makers and Cornish people are all comforted by that ‘fact’ and how it applies in the case of a Hard Brexit – hah!.
February 1, 2019 at 4:22 pm #30336BTW while a Hard Border would cut out the advantages of return loads, the EU already plan to cut out Liverpool in that eventuality and reroute through Dublin &Cork. I’m sure Rees-Mogg will get a suitably warm reception from Liverpool dockers when they learn about that! link
February 1, 2019 at 5:10 pm #30340Especally as liverpool voted to remain! Most would rather be European than English anyhow.
Nothing against the country and the people, more the hate the government, for a few good reasons.
February 1, 2019 at 5:31 pm #30341Sorry I just can’t help myself with this one, its just too good to miss.
Liverpool ? Would that not be a good use for Ed’s concrete wall ? ???
February 1, 2019 at 6:42 pm #30342Id imagine they would like that, and offer it as a solution for the back stop. Wall Liverpool out of the UK adn well stay on the EU.
Though please wait till after May. We need one premier league win before we join the french or Spanish league. I suspect we wousl clean up in both.
February 1, 2019 at 7:00 pm #30343That’s the thing with being an island, people can sail around it. I don’t think you’ll find that the EU will let Eire be held to ransom.
I ask again, what message is this sending to the world? Do what we say or we’ll make sure we hurt you even if it hurts us. You can only deal with us on our terms, we don’t care about yours. Existing agreements? Two fingers to them.
Lets not forget, the UK signed up to this deal with the EU after 2 years of negotiations in good faith. WE asked for the backstop in the way it has been fashioned, it was not imposed on us. And now we expect, no we demand, that this is all chucked out and renegotiated whilst blaming everyone but ourselves. Total arrogance.
All the Tories have had to do is get this over the line and they can’t. What hope do we have of negotiating these wonder deals with skills like that?
February 2, 2019 at 11:27 am #30351Come on now, Dave, we have not “signed up to this deal”. It is an utter falsehood to suggest that we have signed up to the proposed WA. It is nothing more than a proposition that May agreed to put to her parliament just as the EU agreed to put to theirs. Their parliament signed up to it ours by a massive majority did not – the largest defeat for a sitting government in history. Has that escaped you?
As for existing agreements possibly the most important is the GFA with both sides alleging it is sacred. So be it. In that case why are the EU insisting on an agreement that deliberately breaches it? The constitutional changes re the status of N.I. that derive of the WA’s backstop cannot be applied without the consent of the peoples of N.I. Were we to accept the WA as is then there would exist a breach of international law because the GFA has primacy being in force first. To sign the WA backstop would be in simple terms akin to bigamy the first marriage having primacy.
Some have even argued, albeit in a fashion I cannot morally agree with, that perhaps we should sign the WA as is and then at a time of our own choosing simply ignore the backstop on the basis that because the GFA was in force the backstop could not legitimately be complied with. I do wonder if this was what Gove was thinking when he proffered some time back that we could simply tear the agreement up at a later date.
The reality is that while the WA’s backstop, were the WA signed as is, could technically be torn up at a later date, the Malthouse proposals are not vulnerable to such and therefore if anything give the EU and Eire an even better guarantee that a hard border would be avoided.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
February 2, 2019 at 2:23 pm #30355<sigh> you are determined to pick hairs over words. You know full well what I mean.
Theresa May represents this county and that was the deal she agreed on behalf of the country. It was she who assured the EU that this was what the country wanted and they in good faith accepted that. Now we expect them to tear it all up at the last minute.
If this was the other way around your indignation would be felt from here. Well if the backstop is up for renegotiation so will be Gibraltar and lots of other areas where we negotiated what I think you would find an acceptable outcome.
The Malthouse Compromise depends on technology that just does not exist. It’s more about shoring up the Tory party than anything, so doomed to be back stabbed by one of them. It’s the ERGs way of getting a No Deal, they just have to wait a bit and keep throwing spanners in any progress.
I’ve just caught up with Mark Francois anti German anti Airbus stunt. I’d like him to come here and stand at the gates of Airbus and repeat it. Then he can go to Swindon and Oxford and do the same at the gates of BMW. I’m sure it was lapped up by his target audience though. Is this really the face of Britain we wish to project to the world? Or have we just gone past caring?
February 2, 2019 at 2:43 pm #30357The Conservative party care more about themselves than the country. They can whistle for my support in the future, I’d rather have Corbyn and all that entails than this shower of rich a-holes looking to feather their off-shore nests.
I just wish that the MI5/GCHQ would quickly investigate the foreign ties of the ERG mob as never before has one group caused as much real economic damage to the UK.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.