Forumite Members › General Topics › Politics › Europe › Brexit now = CETA +/-?
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Dave Rice.
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January 20, 2019 at 9:51 am #29951
The only option for anyone to leave with any political face is a second referendum. Any political party that allows us to drift into the horror of a Hard Brexit is going to be in the political wilderness for decades.
The politicians who keep lauding a fall-back to GATT are ignorant or their wealth is overseas. They fail to comprehend that this means a GATT deal on every country with whom we have no legal Trade Agreement with at the time of departure. i.e. everyone! GATT levies are not optional, countries will be forced to levy the GATT taxes on all our exports. You can say bye-bye to millions of jobs food rationing and a general recession within months.
I note that no Forumite has been able to refute the impacts of GATT.
This is not FUD, This is not something on which you can take a chance. GATT is a legal obligation on all importing countries without trade deals. It is 100% certainty.
January 20, 2019 at 10:12 am #29952Everyone seems to think the Pound will crash after a No Deal Brexit but currently with the threat of such it is rising.
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January 20, 2019 at 12:01 pm #29953I think £1=1$ or lower is a reasonable bet if we are stupid enough to get locked into a ‘Hard Brexit’.
Those cross-party MPs who have more than an ounce of brains are threatening what is effectively a coup against May to stop her allowing the country to drift into a Hard Brexit. Beeb link
January 20, 2019 at 12:35 pm #29956So even allowing for tariffs out exports should still be cheaper than now for our foreign customers then. That will possibly lead to an export boom and safeguard a few jobs.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 20, 2019 at 3:19 pm #29958Like Hard Brexit politicians you forgot the other side of the equation – raw material costs rise as the pound shrinks, energy costs go up as well, transport costs go up, inflation goes up, cost of living goes up. What you are saying is only true for labour intensive exports of which we have few if any except maybe the Service Sector and I hate to think what a Hard Brexit does to that.!.
Yet another Rees Mogg/Bojo/Davies fallacy (lie)! They gain of course when they use their off-shore assets to buy up the UK
January 20, 2019 at 6:44 pm #29966I do keep pointing out that the draft schedule that we submitted to the WTO last year is almost exactly the same as the EU one we are trading under now. Apart from with the couple of countries that have raised objections those are the terms we would trade under if we just leave the EU.
Two can also play at the legal challenge game. If MPs try to force us into a deal with a customs union but no voting rights like the backstop will ( why will they not put a time limit on that if, as they SAY, they never expect to use it ?) then court action is promised.
January 20, 2019 at 10:18 pm #29969WOF, you still don’t get it. That is the tariffs we will charge others not what others will charge us. This is not the terms under which we trade now because the EU will be charging us those very same tariffs you listed vs the zero % we enjoy now.
That’s why the Welsh hill farmers will face obliteration as a 40% tax will be charged on their products by their biggest market.
The fishermen, who’s biggest market is also the EU, will face a 12% tariff on cod and prawns and 23% on sardines etc. etc. I saw an interview with some today and they think their customers will just suck up that increase. Ask yourself, would you?
If we lower tariffs we do so for the whole world, there can be no exceptions. If as Tim Martin (Wetherspoons) and Lord Snooty propose we charge zero% tariffs who will want to do a free trade deal with us? They will already have free access to our markets whilst we pay for access to theirs. Why would they want to change that? Would you?
Perhaps you would if you wanted to sell us goods we currently won’t accept, like chlorine washed chicken from the US or dodgy pharma from India. Or you want to have access to other things, like India wanting the immigration cap lifted.
The numbers have been crunched on zero% tariffs using the most favourable scenarios of the ERG and they will lower prices overall by 1%, that will be more than drowned out by the inevitable inflation caused by the drop in sterling.
For Gods sake wake up and stop swallowing all that is being fed to you. Do some research and find out what they aren’t telling you because if it comes from a politician there will be loads they aren’t telling you. Then ask why they aren’t.
If after all that you are still keen on Brexit and No Deal, fair enough but don’t try and persuade people that it will be sunny uplands without admitting what the downside will be. And that includes all the other things besides trade, yes even planes flying will need a deal, it won’t just happen because it makes sense because the world of commercial contracts doesn’t work like that.
There isn’t a Remainer here who has said the EU is perfect and doesn’t need some sort of reform, although reading VFM’s spin you would think we did.
January 21, 2019 at 9:43 am #29972Im getting the WTO terms from the WTO web site, did you read the link I posted a few days ago ? If you like I can post it again. We will be trading with the rest of the world under WTO rules even if we stay in a customs union with the EU because that is exactly what we do now. So little has changed in our draft charter that it caused New Zealand to reject it because we are also keeping our EU quotas on lamb imports. The EU is NOT one of the few countries to oppose our WTO charter so we would trade with them under that until they come to their senses and offer talks about a proper trade deal. The only Zero tariff deal on offer anywhere at the moment is the customs union we have with the EU and its just not worth the cost.
January 21, 2019 at 9:47 am #29973……………………… There isn’t a Remainer here who has said the EU is perfect and doesn’t need some sort of reform, although reading VFM’s spin you would think we did.
Fair enough, Dave, so perhaps you can list for me what you accept to be the current faults of the EU. I simply don’t recall you or any Remainer ever having listed or mentioning them. The floor is yours Dave…………
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 21, 2019 at 10:13 am #29976Also Dave, where do you get the bit about having to apply the same tariffs to the whole world if we do a deal with the EU ? Individual deals between nations are common in the WTO and are often used to overcome objections to charter ratification.
January 21, 2019 at 10:26 am #29977It seems to me that Remainers fail to grasp what is the pivotal dynamic of the Brexit debate – Human Nature. Comments re Tony Blair are often that folks listen to what he says and dislike him so much that they elect for the opposite. In many ways such is the dynamic at its extreme. However, the disdain for Blair is mimicked on a smaller but still present scale re all politicians these days and it is a critical dynamic in the matter of Brexit. Parliament in the main is a Remainer house. All Remainers shout down No Deal on a mega scale and Grieve and Boles etc., seek to change parliamentary procedures to make sure it is killed off. How weird that none recognise that such simply fuels and strengthens the public desire for such.
The BBC’s Question Time has over the last eighteen months selected numerically Remain Biased panels each show. Is that driving more folk towards a hard Brexit? It certainly seems to be. The cheer in favour of No Deal was as loud as ever heard from a QT audience when No Deal was lauded on the show. Forget the polls. If there were to be a second referendum Leave would win by a far larger majority than before.
IF and it is a huge IF the EU recognise the dynamic and the writing on the wall – and – lay down the ‘Backstop Gun’ it seeks to hold to our head then May’s Deal will pass. If not then by either a General Election or a Second Ref the shout for and impetus for No Deal will make it a certainty. The GE will remove many Remainer MPs, a lot of whom have already stated they will not stand for election next time anyway.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 21, 2019 at 1:14 pm #29982I’m no Diane Abbot fan, but QT treated her discustingly last week.
January 21, 2019 at 3:19 pm #29984……………………… There isn’t a Remainer here who has said the EU is perfect and doesn’t need some sort of reform, although reading VFM’s spin you would think we did.
Fair enough, Dave, so perhaps you can list for me what you accept to be the current faults of the EU. I simply don’t recall you or any Remainer ever having listed or mentioning them. The floor is yours Dave…………
It was a long time ago, probably on the MM forum pre-vote. Dave, myself and others listed problems with the EU. Some of which were due to our own MEPs not exercising their rights under the EU rules. Others were our Civil Service taking generic EU regulations (full of loopholes) and making them proscriptive in contrast with the French who would add slack to the regs.A prime example of which was the sale of ‘imperfect’ fruit and reg which has since been corrected.
The other area people complained of was an apparent lack of transparency in the Commission’s actions, but I think that may be due to our not knowing where to look.
No-one complained of ‘democracy’ as I think everyone knows our own ‘democracy’ stinks, and at least the EU stops some of our Government’s worst excesses.
[edit] As our own Forum remainers are so certain a second referendum would favour their view, there should be no objection to putting it to the test and we will see how a first result built on half truths stands up against the actual Brexit job losses that are still taking place.
January 21, 2019 at 6:13 pm #29990We are in full agreement re one point. That is that a second referendum would be a good idea. Parliament would not dare thwart another and even bigger resounding LEAVE and I am now pretty certain that would be the result. My only doubt derives of the fact that Daine Abbot agrees that Leave would win and she never gets her maths right…………..LOL
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 21, 2019 at 10:38 pm #29992I think you are wrong about a hypothetical second referendum result VFM. You disregard the number of potential new voters amongst those who became 18 after the first referendum. Those I have met and spoken to, are hopping mad about what they see as a betrayal by the oldest generation. They talk to me because I have 3 grandchildren of voting age with many friends who all know I am in the Remain camp. The youngest has lots of mates and he will be a new voter if the hypothetical vote goes ahead. One of the other two voted at the first, the other did not. All of them want a GE and the signs are that many of them will vote if that happens, and vote Labour. They are sick and tired of what they see as a bunch of proven incompetent Oldpharts ruining their futures.
If a GE happens before the due date, we may face an interesting time, as posited by the “ancient Chinese curse, “May you live in an interesting age.”
Before anyone questions the quote and source, be it known that the first recorded use of it in British public life, was by Austen Chamberlain in the 1930’s. He had worked in the Diplomatic Service in China and was the brother of PM Neville Chamberlain, he of the “Peace in our time” fame. PM Neville used the quote in a Parliamentary speech in 1930. It was apparently taken from a Chinese manuscript in 1627.
Yet another history lesson. Wake up at the back!
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.January 21, 2019 at 11:02 pm #29993I am not infallible but the young often say adamantly how they will vote and I don’t doubt they mean it; provided that they come out the day of the vote and get around to it. The latter proviso is the pivotal matter of that sentence.
You also have to remember that Ref 1 was in many ways a means for folks to stick two fingers up at the establishment. After the last two and a half years that “driver” has even more energy behind it. As one of Thatcher’s advisers said last week (I can’t recall his name), all Leave has to do is say that the establishment obviously doesn’t listen to the electorate so its time to teach them a massive lesson. This fits with the polls that say around 55% believe the first Ref result must be respected.
I’m, as I said, pretty sure Leave would win not least because it will also have even more activists pushing for it this time. In fact I’m far more certain than I was first time around.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 22, 2019 at 9:17 am #29999Expanding on the above post, projections suggest that even had 16 year olds up have been allowed to vote last time Leave would still have won although only marginally. It is of course true that these voters would now be eligible and that many old Leavers have now passed away. However, there is a strong strength of belief in the middle age ranges, even among many Remainers, that the result of the first vote must be respected. All in all Ref2 if it occurs will be as much about whether Parliament listens to the electorate or not. This will give Leave a powerful cutting edge.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 22, 2019 at 9:23 am #30001And here’s some food for thought re tolerance.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
January 22, 2019 at 11:52 am #30009I think the ‘intolerance’ is more frustration and is due to the lack of meaningful responses to arguments put forward. The subject is nearly always sidestepped. For example the impact of a Hard Brexit. Imo that is spelled out in fairly simple detail in the video link posted by Steve, but I do not remember ANY reasoned responses to that video.
Just for clarity this is the impact on our EXPORTS, impacts on imports are within our control per the WTO terms Wheels posted (but some countries objected). There is no reciprocity on our published WTO terms other than the statutory minimum tariffs.
Impacts of applying WTO video.
I’ll give gratis one response that could have been made. I will accept that as there is no EU agreement with the US that their exports will be barely affected, but that is of no comfort to Sheep Farmers or Fishermen or others with favoured terms on EU exports who will be forced to lose money or even close shop.
Impacts on other sectors will be a large increase in bureaucracy and friction with horrendous impacts on ‘Just in Time’ until the non-existent systems have been sorted out. The car industry will be especially affected as investment for new lines is moved to less troublesome areas such as the Czech Republic. (e.g. Landrover). That is why Failing Greyling is supposedly investing in measures to ensure a free flow of food, medicine and other essentials if there is a Hard Brexit (God help us all – Greyling and organisation are totally incompatible.).
January 22, 2019 at 11:53 am #30010Ah yes, Polls, Projections and Surveys. Always turn out to have been correct, don’t they? Very rarely, all taken from a tiny minority of the British people. Many choices change at the ballot box.
As for Tolerance: I have to be, I am a Remainer married to a Leaver. (applicable to Brexit only, but you never know…) We often debate the latest rubbish uttered by Talking Heads on both sides, but we have never argued about the issues. We respect each other’s opinions and choices, we always have given each other space. I also respect the opinions and views of the Leavers here on Forumite, even if I disagree with them.
That’s democracy and as a Remainer I believe that the original Referendum decision should be respected. I just wish we had some real government who would be strong enough to get the decision implemented ASAP.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
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