Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

The problem with Cornwall is that despite them having very good parochial reasons for hating the Common Fishery Policy they are likely to get short-shift in any possible future discussions about Trade. Typically minor interests such as those of the Cornish get surrendered for the ‘greater good’. That is one reason why the German Länder federalised system has many advantages versus our own form of broken democracy.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

Your interpretation of my statement is your interpretation of my statement. It is your spin to twist things in your own direction and assign to me a view that I don’t hold.   ……

Dave, the last line of my post to which you refer was explicit that I was not assigning to you a view you do not hold.   It read: “Dave, I fully accept that such was not your intent but intended or not such was unquestionably the effect of your words.”   You can’t get clearer than that.   I stated I fully accepted that such was not your view so how on Earth was I assigning to you a view you did not hold?

BTW has anyone noticed that Mervyn King has now come out to thrash May’s Deal in Bloomberg saying that if passed and signed with the EU we would sooner or later end up unilaterally ditching it no matter the legal position.   Its an interesting read.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Some intelligent predictions can be made about the future:

May’s deal is legally risky and heaps that risk on top of very risky economic forecasts that we will be able to cut better trade deals than the EU and that miraculously our goods will become more saleable than they are at present. Heaping risk on risk leaves little room for optimistic forecasts.

On the other hand the EU’s legal team have stated that we can change our minds over Brexit.

[The VFM Addict]

Yes, and some predictions are rubbish.    The University of Cambridge Business School has just trashed the Treasury Predictions.   Take a look.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

They all trash each others predictions. What I find funny, and saw it this morning, is X politician will trash Y’s predictions as no-one can predict that, then push their own economists predictions which of course support their view. When challenged they point out a few details their economist guessed correctly, ignoring the same of others, and therefore it proves their economist knows what they are talking about.

So I don’t take a lot of notice of the detail of any of them but look at the direction the majority are pointing and any bias I perceive they may have, plus a dose of common sense. That doesn’t support Brexit unless you take the most optimistic view and assume that everyone will be beating a path to give us a better deal than we currently have.

I simply cannot see how that could happen.

[The VFM Addict]

That’s not an unreasonable position to hold, Dave.   But even the consensus is at times wrong.   It was surely so about what would happen if we did not join the Euro a few years back.

However, as I have said over and over Financial considerations alone were not what drove the Leave vote.   The question of full sovereignty and the direction of travel of the EU were factors also.   I recall Clegg saying it was a fantasy to suggest that there would be an EU army on the horizon.    But it was not was it?    The reality is that it is impossible to predict where the EU will be heading to achieve its objective of a US of E.   Or to predict its financial stability or to predict its disunity on route to that collective end.    I say again the best interests of the whole are not identical to the best interests of individual states.  I would not cite Greece which fiscally is a basket case but I would cite Italy.

The one bizarre anomaly is that here in the UK it is in major part the young that are Europhiles.   Yet in every other EU state, without exception, it is the young that are leading the Eurosceptic charge which now is beginning in Spain also given the current regional election results.     I have found no credible explanation of why our young are so different from all others in how they view the EU.    What I am sure of is that in or out it is not the UK that poses an existential threat to the EU it is the other states’ own young.

If I had to take a guess at why UK young differs from the rest of the EU young, though I stress it is just a guess, I would say it is the inevitable urge of the young to kick against the mainstream or what they perceive to be the mainstream view of the generations older than them.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

Yes joining the Euro was a terrible decision. In 2003 we could buy a Euro for 73p, today it’s 89p. But that’s a totally different argument to leaving the EU and you’ll find those for and against.

You seem obsessed by the European Army. It’s been talked about for 70 years and will probably still be being talked about in 70 years time. It’s another Turkey. I still don’t understand what the problem is though.

It’s as impossible to predict where the UK will be going as it is the EU. If Corbyn gets in we’ll be going in a very different direction to the TM road map, I’m not sure even he knows where, I certainly don’t. But the EU isn’t given to such seismic shifts that I do know.

Euro scepticism has always been there and has it’s peaks and troughs and is in fact declining over the whole of the EU, though not by much. The chances of any other country following us, especially after seeing what a mess it is, is extremely unlikely. It’s only Cameron’s gross mishandling of the situation that got us here. I’ll go as far to predict that there will be no more and that the next generation will see us back in. They may well be glad to accept whatever terms are on offer, who knows ?

[The Duke]

I love the idea of an EU Army. We are nation of around 70m that spends sod all on the services. Trh powers we rub shoulders with, and some against, are far larger with far bigger militery budgets.

The EU consisted of 600m, twice that of America and 6 x that of Russia. If we leave, it won’t be long untill we are alone. Which isn’t a great thing given how both India and China are now also joining the party.

Also I’d love to be 16-20 and have an option to join a a med based regiment. I had the ‘fun’ of Arbroath. A decent place, but not the med.

I can’t see a bad side to it. Anything that locks us together more with our EU brothers is good by me. As if that collapses, no one can predict what happens next.

But I could see a Russian land grab, lots of US manipulation and gathering up of industry and raw materials, lots of nice world Bank loans to the poorer EU States to keep them under the US thumb. A recipe for disaster.

Hover on the up side, well have our soveranty, For all that that will be worth. The EU may collapse on its own anyhow, but I look at it like this, why speed it up, it may never happen. If anything we should want the EU to grow and be strong.

[Ed P]

Correction Steve, on a percent of GDP we spend more than *anyone, we just spend it all on worthless things like the Flying, Turkey, HMS White Efflump and a nuclear deterrent that can only be of use as a Doomsday device. If we spent it more wisely we would have materiel better than either Italy (naval) or France (airforce, army).

European Rankings

The rankings are of course arguable,but second is the highest ranking and fifth the lowest.

*We just spend most of it on US tat, so the Yanks love us!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I can see why VFM keeps mentioning a European army Dave. It is a shining example of something the EU would Never, not ever, even in your dreams, think about proposing. And now has.

[Dave Rice]

W-o-F it’s been talked about for 70 years! It is not a new thing whatsoever. I think you can thank Trump for it’s latest resurrection. He wanted Europe to stop relying on the US and now they’re talking about it it’s rubbished. Talk about damned if you do and damned if you don’t. This is just another example of the scare the children tactics with a huge spoonful of jingoism.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Nooo. Its just an example of the MASSIVE porkies the EU tells before it does what really wanted in the first place.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

http://martin-baker.com/2018/11/29/letter-editor-forbes/

Have a look at the link above. A prime example of lies and half truth’s from a vested interest.

At least we still make the worlds best ejector seats. I wish we could eject from the EU with the same style ?

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

I can see why VFM keeps mentioning a European army Dave. It is a shining example of something the EU would Never, not ever, even in your dreams, think about proposing. And now has.

Macron totally out-Trumped trump by saying that Europe needed an army to ward off enemies including the USA.

Probably something that many think, but dare not say.

[Dave Rice]

I applaud the inventiveness involved in demonizing anything the EU do, or don’t, but that’s all it is, demonization not rational debate. Once you start believing it you can apply it at will.

Imagine if the EU behaved the way our Parliament is currently doing! Then you may have a point. What an absolute shower, they will always put themselves first.

Hopefully we are now nearing a pragmatic softer Brexit, but of course that just won’t be good enough. You can’t just be out, you have to be out out (to quote Micky Flanagan). I’m not sure I can see the EEA wanting us in with them though, we wreck everything in the end. I’m sure it will only take 2 minutes to start accusing Norway of something or other.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Why thank you Dave ! I do try you know ?.

I agree with you about our current crop of polititians though. Most of them wouldn’t recognise a principle if the head principle came over to give them a lesson on principles ?.

[The VFM Addict]

Well I think we can all agree that the divisions in the country over Brexit are as alive and well as they have been since pre-Maastricht.   I suspect they will remain so festering until a complete Brexit occurs and its viability is fully tested such as to settle the matter one way or the other.  Until either that occurs – or – the EU itself collapses or morphs beyond recognition, I simply cannot ever see this country being united ever again.    Does anyone disagree?

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

If there is another referendum I would hope that each side has to present a manifesto setting out exactly the aims of the deal. I also hope each has to publish a detailed 5 year economic forecast.

The problem with Brexit mark I is that no-one including the Brexiteers really knew what it entailed. At least we now know that the EU has too much to lose by caving in to British demands and we also know that a Hard Brexit could well split off Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[The VFM Addict]

Errrmmm…. So each side picks its experts and publishes forecasts that back its own case.   Not much change from the status quo really.   I truly can’t see that healing the splits.  Moreover why a 5 year forecast rather than a 10 year or 20 year given that all sides are thinking of the consequences for their children and grandchildren?

I’m not sure how a hard Brexit would break off Northern Ireland.  It is a fallacy that WTO imposes a hard border it does not and in any event Good Friday makes no mention re hard borders.   Scotland is a different matter because that has always been a possibility for other reasons and its hard to say how things will play out due to dynamics like fishing.

I still think that only the “suck it and see” method will ever resolve the public split.

 

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Except all we get from the Brexiteers is wishful thinking. If you truly support Brexit then please explain just how and why the UK will be able to cut better trade deals than a bloc that currently has a larger GDP than the US.

As a simple example, we already know the trade deal the EU has with Japan, how will we better that?

[Author]

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