Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The Duke]

Dave the News cycles are so short now, no one is found out for more than 5 mins. Then it’s just business as usual.

[Bob Williams]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

And Bob. Why would the children of today know any better than us ?

That is NOT what I said. But I would sincerely hope that the next generations learn from the horrendous mistakes made by ours. If they have not advanced, it’s because successive governments have failed them, by poking education with a stick at least once every 12 months.

I have an extremely dyslexic gson who was doing fine in a college course, tutors telling us he was going to make it based upon his practical work. Then the goalposts were moved and he was expected to pass an “associated” R&R course in Maths and English. The Maths he could handle in his trick brain, which works out complex problems mentally and plonks down a correct result. First time, every time. Unfortunately he had to write down all the steps, which he could not do, stating that “It all swims about on the page.” He has a ‘different’ intelligence and possesses a large vocabulary, a good grasp of English, but cannot write it down. So he has failed and is working just 2 days a week in an unsuitable job. He cannot sign on because of the part time job and he is slowly losing faith in himself, spending too much time on his ‘pooter or with dead end mates on benefits.

And you want to know if today’s kids know any better than us? They need to be better supported and treated as individuals, for a start.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I am sorry to hear that Bob, I really really am. I have a specific learning disability that makes writing extremley dificult for me. I can do it but it takes up about 90% of my brain power as i have to concentrate on drawing every letter. My school teachers were of the opinion that there was no point in teaching me anything if i could not write it down.

[Ed P]

Bob, I believe you earlier stated that the college were aware of his dyslexia. That being the case I would have thought that there were grounds for appeal and a request that the written part be handled as a an oral exam (viva voce), and if necessary ask the British Dyslexia society if they can help.

[dwynnehugh]

What I think history teaches us is that we do not learn from it and continually make the same errors over and over again.

Sadly we now live in a world where ‘paper qualifications’ are paramount – you may be able to do it on paper but put some tools into the same guy’s hand and he’s lost.  We seem to have lost the time when “he’s a damn good (plumber, carpenter/painter/tiler/plasterer/mechanic …. et al)” to now be in a world where unless there are paper qualifications to match the guy falls by the wayside. So much talent wasted on the throne of educationalists and faceless bureaucrats in distant and unrelated offices dictation often on matters they have little knowledge and comprehension thereof.

My grandfather (died in 1962) was a ‘master carpenter’ as they were termed in those days – a 7yr apprenticeship to a mater carpenter and my God could he make wood talk – no electric tools in his workshop just a circular saw – he could turn out stuff far better than machines can do today – BUT he had NO qualifications – would not have made it today.

The more you meet people the more you understand why Noah took animals instead of humans

[Dave Rice]

ED, I’ve been through this with my son. Your’re fighting the establishment, you get no help from them especially if there is a cost attached to it. Just getting a diagnosis takes years and you can’t even start the fight until you get one. Everything will be done to kick it into the long grass in the hope of a time out. It is absolutely soul destroying when you find out what the truth is behind the institutions you thought were there to care. They don’t. Some people at the sharp end try their best but the institutions themselves are all talk no action.

Things changed dramatically when Dan got into University; they had the money, the staff and the attitude.

There is just so much needs sorting out in this country but this Brexit nonsense is just swamping everything. I fear it will do so for years to come.

[The Duke]

I’ve just found out last weak, my girl 21, has had her dyslexic privalides revoked. If anything having them know is working against her.

It was only two nights ago so haven’t had time to dig into it. But form what she said, it seems backwards. But I wouldn’t put that past the system! Total side subject to brexit.

[The VFM Addict]

The Duke wrote:

The bank of England’s assessment isn’t as healthy looking as yours VFM growth reduction for 8%, 25% hit on the pound plus high inflation. All the good stuff needed for nosediving an economy. One that would take a mirricle to pull up from. Though it will all be pushed aside as project fear, just like the rest was, untill it became project reality.  …….

Would that be the same BoE that didn’t see the crash of 2008 coming and the same one that predicted a massive crash immediately after the June 2016 vote which never materialised?

The model they used it seems was the most remote model used to test if the banking system would survive.     God even former BoE heads have condemned it as preposterously OTT.  Go check.    Heck Zombie Movies must scare the hell out of you………LOL

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I class the Bank’s forecast as a lot better than BoJo et als forecast of what we could obtain from all the Brexit negotiations. These negotiations were if you recall led for 95% of the time by ardent Brexiteers such the Brexit Bulldog  Davis and the smarmy guy with the foreign name Dominic Raab..

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

Vassalage is just such a loaded and totally incorrect statement. It’s typical of the language being used however. If that is the only way to promote your argument it just shows how bad it is. ………..

Vassalage is an emotive term but in this case reasonably accurate.   Do not confuse it with slavery. The terms have totally different meanings.

I had a chat with two young couples the night before last that had bought into May’s charade.   So, OK, they weren’t Remainers, they just wanted Brexit to be finished and stop dominating everything.  I asked if they’d take out a mobile contract where the provider network could vary the terms whenever they wanted and at the end of the two year contract they could only leave if the network provider agreed they could.   All said “No” they would not.  Then I explained May’s back-stop to them.    By the end not one was keen on May’s deal.

Then I explained that while the vote on the Withdrawal deal was by qualified majority vote, when it comes to the negotiating trade deal (i.e. the Political Declaration) that was not by QMV.    Regarding the trade deal every one of the 27 has a veto.  So unless each one gets what they want from the new trade deal there will not be one.  Hence, Macron’s threat re fishing.   One veto and we are in the back-stop.

Lastly I explained that once in the back-stop the EU has no incentive to agree to us leaving it.   Why would they let us leave?    They have full access to our markets to which they sell more than buy.   Moreover, when they try to negotiate trade deals with other states they will be selling access to an extra 68 million consumers (us) without even having to worry if the trade deal is to our benefit.   That sounds like vassalage to me.   The penny dropped finally when I said that if we were to redo the referendum and the vote was Remain the EU could still pretty much ignore our opinions because plainly we would never leave no matter what happened.   Both couples decided we must Leave and not using May’s deal.

I have to admit I was shocked at the conviction of the converted.   Two were very agree at May when they realised the facts.   I’m sure it was the phone contract analogy that made them think.   Younger folks can relate to that.

By the way have you all noticed how many Economists and Bankers are coming out rubbishing the Government’s forecasts and Carney’s statements?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

It’s pointless trying to saying anything against Project Hopeless Optimism.

Let’s not forget that there wasn’t a Brexiteer good enough to lead the Conservative Party when the time came. It doesn’t stop them whinging about it now though. A fine piece of democracy that was too, it was a Coronation reached behind closed doors. Just what the EU is accused of by the very same people.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

I class the Bank’s forecast as a lot better than BoJo et als forecast of what we could obtain from all the Brexit negotiations. These negotiations were if you recall led for 95% of the time by ardent Brexiteers such the Brexit Bulldog Davis and the smarmy guy with the foreign name Dominic Raab..

Come on now.  You know that May gave Davis and Raab no power and had Olly Robbins negotiating behind their backs.   Naturally Davis got nowhere because the EU knew he had no power because May was working through Robbins.   And shame on you because surely you know you’ll always get massacred in any negotiation if the other side can see you do not have the courage to walk away.

We had a good enough hand to get a win if played well.   Ann Widdecombe and David Mellor have both explained how it could and should have been done.   May blew it not the Brexiteers.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

It’s pointless trying to saying anything against Project Hopeless Optimism. Let’s not forget that there wasn’t a Brexiteer good enough to lead the Conservative Party when the time came. It doesn’t stop them whinging about it now though. A fine piece of democracy that was too, it was a Coronation reached behind closed doors. Just what the EU is accused of by the very same people.

That argument doesn’t hold water.   May was elected by a predominantly Remainer party and not by the less number of Eurosceptics MPs.    That is why a Remainer (i.e. May) was crowned.   No point in any Brexiteer standing because the Remainer MPs would never have let that person onto the last two list for party members to elect.   If BoJo had stood then up would have popped another Remainer candidate alongside May and Voila! only those two would have made the last two list.

So the ones who elected May (the Remainer MPs) are NOT the ones who accuse the EU of doing things behind closed doors.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I was in uni 2 years prior to 08 and in my banking classes, the profs that taught that had a number of books published on bankings, all seen it coming. So if you think the BoE didn’t but lowly tutors did, I think not.

It was more likley they couldn’t figure out a solution to the issue, and know bringing it up post 08 would just speed it up.

Banking is a super interesting subject. It doesn’t sound it, but was some of my favourites at uni. Funny that 97% of the class was Asian, with a couple of Welsh and a hand full of English. So not a fancied subject by the locals.

 

For the life of me I can’t remember the banking tutors name, Spanish lady. Just took a look through the current staff and alot are still there. She doesn’t seem to be. Lovely lady, she wasn’t the only one, predicting doom, it went trough many of the business staff. But cos she was out main banking tut I recall her lectures of it, and the yet to happen Spanish collapse that happened about 12 months after.

So again, the BoE knew it was coming, they just didn’t know how soon. The media painted it as ‘out of the blue’, but watch or read many of the pieces written since, everyone knew, Especally on the US side of the pond.

[Ed P]

The Duke wrote:

…everyone knew, Especally on the US side of the pond.

Hell, it was even obvious to me so I went ‘liquid’ a year ahead of the crash. Most people knew, but dare not be the first to say it as they would have been accused of causing a crisis or market manipulation. When the AVERAGE S&P 500 stock was returning a PE of 20+ then it was damned obvious that the market was unsustainable – the current one is a little better but still a tad high, and some of the income statements now look ‘manipulated’ as judged by their cash flow.

[The VFM Addict]

I think what got my goat is that Mark Carney said he was not making predictions but looking at scenarios.    If that was so he’d have included models of various best scenarios too, but those didn’t get a look in.   He looked only at Doom and a little less Doom.    No consideration of the trade potential from various countries looking to do trade deals with us asap.   America is an example.   That country is already our biggest (single state) trading partner and the potential remains massive with a trade deal.   The figures are clear that the percentage of our exports going to the EU is markedly falling year on and has been for 30 years despite the growth in the size of the EU (!).   World trade growth is all outside the EU.   We need to take full advantage of that and we could set up trade deals with countries outside the EU far faster than the EU can because there are too many conflicting interest in the EU that don’t want this deal because of X and don’t want that one because of Y.    Boy oh boy is that lesson we are going to be taught us if May’s deal passes.    France will veto unless it gets our fish for example.   Germany will want more of our Financial services or the EU impose a big financial services tax knowing that such sucks for far more money from us than anyone else.   And what of the Euro crash which is inevitable.   How many EU states will then have plenty of money to spend buying from us.     The writing is on the wall.   I truly believe that we sell our children into vassalage unless we leave completely now.   Let me ask you all – Who truly believes that if May’s deal passes we won’t end up it in the perpetual and crippling backstop?   And for what?   May’s deal breaches Good Friday more than a N.I. hard border would.    Good Friday says nothing re a hard border.   But it does guarantee the right of N.I. to self determination re its relationship with Eire and the UK.   May’s deal breaches that.   That’s why the DUP are up in arms.   I personally think they should have been using their very capable loud voices to stress how May’s deal breaches Good Friday.  Then the peoples of the rest of the UK would have realised how the N.I. issue was always a con.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The VFM Addict wrote:

That country is already our biggest (single state) trading partner and the potential remains massive with a trade deal.

What makes you think we can do any better? Remember the motto of the US State Dept –  ‘America First!’. In any case our trade with the US is a lot less than that of German, and the EU are 90% of the way to cutting a trading deal..

The first rule of any trade is that you have to be selling something the others want. What possible increments of trade could we get that we cannot already obtain? All a trade deal means with the US is that they will ship poisonous GM crops to us and tie us into their stupid software patent system. We will get crumbs in return.

[Dave Rice]

Plus they know we will be desperate politically to cut a deal. Sitting ducks.

[The Duke]

Any external state that has a trade deal with the EU, has to declare to the EU when setting up substantial trade deals with anther 3rd party nation.

So the other big states in the world that we will want to make a trade with  already have deals with the EU.

So even when out, we’ll be trying to make a deal with X, the EU will still be at the table. Its impossible for the UK to make better one on one deals with any state worth being worried about.

All the ones we can make deals with make up such a small percentage of world trade, it can never make up for the losses.

The trade deal angle never added up.

[Dave Rice]

Those who say WTO rules are fine forget who actually pays the extra tariffs, it’s us the consumer. OK some things will be cheaper but overall it looks like us average Joes will be worse off. Then there’s all the paperwork and checks.

Local TV had a businessman in the “Aerospace sector” saying the paperwork is fine, they deal all around the world. I know the business, my mate works there. They create pdf versions of flight manuals. No need for provenance and no sending goods through customs, but that wasn’t mentioned. Then we had 2 local businesses that actually manufacture goods, they have opened facilities in the EU so they can continue their businesses at the cost of local jobs. These are not huge Corporates, they are the SMEs that keep the economy going.

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