Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Outside observers ( the US, Canada, Australia and even Japan) cannot understand our roll over and beg attitude.

[Ed P]

How about both our biggest single trading partner with the total EU trade exceeding that of the US.

I wish someone would explain exactly how (without any trained negotiators) we expect to displace EU deals with the rest of the world.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

We GET some negotiators and NOT the ones trained by whitehall !

All good manners and fair play will get you nowhere and nothing from the EU.

Send in the bully boys. Pull Norman Tebit out of retirement if you must but tell THEM the way it is GOING to be !

 

[Bob Williams]

Graham, we are the 5th largest economy at the moment because we are still part of the EU. When we leave, in whatever way we do leave, I believe that we will begin to slide down that ladder and hit the floor with a bump. Trade deals forecast by Pie-in-the- Sky dreamers will not come to fruition.

I really, really do not want to be a Jonah about Brexit, I have grand kids that will need a future. However, I am a realist who is not subject to the OTT patriotism of a large proportion of the Brexit Brigade. So many idiots saying that we were OK on our own for 2,000 years, why should we not be OK now?

*We were not OK for long periods. If history teaches anything, it is: looking at the past through rose-tinted spectacles and extrapolating that into future prospects, does not work.

*The country, and its people, have changed. I do not believe that current generations have the patience or the necessity to believe that they have to undergo a period of hardship more extreme than they can imagine. Not their fault: it is the environment they have grown into and they have known nothing else.

And there will be hardship. I don’t mean how do we pay for our Sky sub’s, or keep up the payments on whatever household goods we have. I mean millions of people without the means to feed, shelter and clothe themselves. There really is a train coming down the tunnel at us and no one seems to be able to stop it.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

Ah yes, Norman Tebbit, his immigration test would be to ask “which cricket team do you support”? I’d fail that one. I go to the local T20 derby most years but the object is how much beer can you get down your neck before bad light forces you into the local curry house?

Not knocking it, as an afternoon / evening out it’s hard to beat but did I support Glos or Somerset when I went through the turnstile? By home location it should be Glos, but my cousin batted for Somerset and became an umpire for England.

Tebbit did change his mind “One test I would use is to ask them on which side their fathers or grandfathers or whatever fought in the second world war,” Tebbit said. “And so you’ll find that the Poles and the Czechs and the Slovaks were all on the right side. And so that’s a pretty good test isn’t it? Perhaps we’ll even manage to teach them to play cricket gradually over the years.”

So the Chingford Skinhead came around to EU immigration in the end, but not fatties, “Obesity is stupid people eating rubbish”. Pointing to ­Labour benches, he mocked: “That would apply to quite a few members over there who are clearly eating too much.”

Clearly he hadn’t seen Eric Pickles behind him. But then it’s best to ignore anything that doesn’t obscure your own view.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I was baiting you Dave. I knew if I mentioned Norman you would jump on that and ignore the fact that we need to take a MUCH MUCH harder line with the EU.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

And Bob. Why would the children of today know any better than us ?

[Dave Rice]

W-O-F I’m not daft ? He was my favourite Spitting Image character though.

They couldn’t have made puppets fast enough to keep up this year.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

We GET some negotiators and NOT the ones trained by whitehall ! All good manners and fair play will get you nowhere and nothing from the EU. Send in the bully boys. Pull Norman Tebit out of retirement if you must but tell THEM the way it is GOING to be !

Unfortunately that comment shows that like all politicians and most Civil Servants you know very little about the ball-breaking details of trade negotiations. My role in an earlier life pre the EU take-over of the Trade role (Wedgie-Benn days) was as an Industry Advisor , but even from my small corner I could see the need to grasp a whole lot of intertwined minutia, and if there is one thing both politicians and the Civil Service suck at, it is details!

I will grant that to some extent GATT changes have made this easier, but it isn’t something that any ‘good’ negotiator can do without a couple of years training. We are currently still looking for >250 people to start training!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I disagree Ed. A good negotiator can make the other side buckle even if he has no cards. And we have lots.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Did a playground bully never take your lunch money ? Did you not eventually punch him in the gob ? Well I did and ended up best friends.

[Dave Rice]

If Remain is Project Fear, this is Project Hopeless Optimism. Any downsides are dismissed and assessment of our own abilities is limitless.

I’m afraid there is only one way that Brexiteers will find out and even then it will be blamed on someone else.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Our own abilities are more or less limitless Dave. Have a bit of faith.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

I disagree Ed. A good negotiator can make the other side buckle even if he has no cards. And we have lots.

Sorry you are wrong.

Although I agree a good negotiator is worth their salt, they absolutely need to know exactly what their sticking points are and what ‘worthless’ items they can trade to get them. this is what differentiates a Trade Negotiator from a common or garden negotiator. Believe it or not, that requires both a lot of intelligence as well as the skill to draw out such details from (say) the manufacturing sector in question. such deals are rarely binary, but normally cover a package of different items.

Although we probably get a free-ride on trade details for the automotive sector, just think of all the myriad of components each of which could well be subject to different tariffs depending on their point of origin. Anyone negotiating a ‘car’ deal with (say) Brazil would have to be capable of not just comprehending the finished article but also all the bits (and implications) that make up a car.  If (say) that deal is the counterpart to a deal on tariff-free coffee then the implications for national GDP for both would need to be projected and comprehended in the trade deal.

The EU and the ‘open’ Irish border add a further raft of Trade complications.

[edit] I forgot to add that Tariff Codes (Hs codes) are often ambiguous and multi-featured devices often fit several tariff code descriptions. It also depends if an article is ‘finished’ the US is notorious for having few tariffs on finished goods but swingeing tariffs on their components! In addition country of origin is set by the last country where the HS code was changed and a ‘finished article emerges. It is a subject of extreme complexity and specialisation!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I know. I try to live my life bye giving people a chance. The Eu had theirs. Time to beat them up.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

I know. I try to live my life bye giving people a chance. The Eu had theirs. Time to beat them up.

We were a fully participating member of the EU.

If there are faults with the EU and anyone to blame, then blame ignorant a-holes like Faragh for not taking full advantage of that position and persuading other member states to alter the rules. Bureaucracy is a system that always cuts both ways if you have the guile to see where bureaucratic rules work in your favour.

[Dave Rice]

Well that’s the problem with Farage etc. all they can do is wreck other peoples ideas and offer none of their own. All while taking the pay cheque of course.

[The VFM Addict]

The problem is that Remaining in the EU is an even greater leap in the dark than a No deal Brexit.   The EU is morphing rapidly.   Realistically we had very little influence while we were in anyway that’s how Drunker got elected so we would have even less say now.

If we were to stay now the EU could do with us as they please because they would know we would never leave.   If leaving on May’s deal is vassalage then staying is deep into terrified, battered wife territory.   We are where we are – The Rubicon has been crossed.

I think its time to dump the, Dad’s Army, “We’re doooomed, we’re dooooomed” mantra.   We can survive well in the world on our own.    To my eye’s it’s a sad day when Italy is standing up to the EU with far more backbone than the UK.   I’m truly embarrassed by it.

I’m a greater believer in the old saying that if you say you can you possibly can but if you say you can’t then you’re right.   Stay where we are and we’re stuffed.   Leave totally and yes we might be stuffed but we’ll have a fighting chance and a chance that we are in control of.    Why have we all become so negative as a nation with such little self-belief    I truly don’t understand it.

As for what was said above about Farage he would have bitten May’s hand off if he had been offered a role in the negotiations.   The truth is, like him or not, we have no-one who knows how to play hardball with the EU better than him.

 

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[The Duke]

The bank of England’s assessment isn’t as healthy looking as yours VFM growth reduction for 8%, 25% hit on the pound plus high inflation. All the good stuff needed for nosediving an economy. One that would take a mirricle to pull up from.

Though it will all be pushed aside as project fear, just like the rest was, untill it became project reality.

 

I was away for a long weekend with the family. I told the wife not to bring up brexit, as there was two of us, out of a large family, of family’s, (nice weekend in barnmouth Btw) that was for remain the rest was against it. So I cba with politics.

To my amazement almost a 100% turn around on the leave front. all bar one admited they was conned, or didn’t want to see the remains point of view.

I didnd chip in, no fun in saying I told you so so, so just listened. A few of the people there I’ve never heard them opnely say they was wrong about anything. Funny what a bar selling bud on draft and the world’s selection of sprite can do.

All to a man, (except the one), want another ref.to rectify their idiotic dicision. Their words not mine.

What’s happened is they all own propities, either rent or flip, and most are reaching retirement age or passed it, it’s dawned on them their shekels aren’t going to stretch as far as once thought.  few in the group have been selling of sterling for gold. Othes for dollars.

Just between this table of about 20 families if reckon a couple of million has left the economy. This doesn’t bowd well when you scale it up.

I still see another vote, and use staying put. Nothing else makes sense. Nothing.

[Dave Rice]

Vassalage is just such a loaded and totally incorrect statement. It’s typical of the language being used however. If that is the only way to promote your argument it just shows how bad it is.

How could Farage play hardball with the EU when he only attended 40% of votes? He just insulted them and wound them up. By the same token Sinn Fein are playing mega hard ball with Westminster. I know, I’ll lobby my MP to not turn up, that’ll teach them.

It’s all myth and made up fantasies isn’t it? Play to the fears and emotions of the crowd, don’t worry about any actual facts. I really fear for this post-truth world and the male, pale and stale generation that peddle it are going to face a huge backlash when they’re eventually found out.

[Author]

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