Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The Duke]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

Quite a surprise on the C4 Referendum vote program. They only managed to get 56% of the people they interviewed to agree with them ! That pretty much guarantees that an actual vote would come out massively in favour of leave doesn’t it ?

I think c4 was taken the poll as a positive for a leave vote, but I can also see your way of looking at that as meaning thr oppersite.

Either way, a poll is a poll is a poll, I’d rather wait till the actual second ref, all the polls are boring and have been to be misleading and in come cases way of the mark.

I’m trully fed up of the whole debate let’s just have a damn vote and move forward with whatever the outcome. I no longer care, I just like a roadmap, hate fealing adrift. Not matter the outcome, Atleast we can start to plan.

[Bob Williams]

It looks like a Hard Brexit to me. This will set back Eire and UK relations by at least half a century. Companies are leaving the UK, other businesses saying they will probably leave. The Scottish option would be good: why can’t the North and Midlands, and any other area of the country, ally themselves with the Scots?

We face a seriously hard future. Or rather, our descendants do. Unfortunately, I live in an area which voted overwhelmingly in favour of Leave. I gave up trying to change minds months ago around here, especially among my generation, including sadly, my missus. “We will have our Sovereignty back!”

What part of it was missing?

{ Cue Graham/WoF }

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Everyone is playing a dangerous game of hard-ball. Imo a ‘Hard Brexit’ could well trigger a vote of ‘no confidence’. I’m not sure what would follow but it could be in Labour’s interest to get an election before the new boundaries come into force as Labour lose 30 out of the 50 seat reduction that has been proposed.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Crossword time.

Arrange these words “out, sell” into an expression also meaning capitulation, cave in or surrender.

Clue: same as Brexit deal.

[PlaneMan]

It’s not all doom and gloom, that evil, lying bitch McVey has resigned. And some others.

[Dave Rice]

I believe she’s gone porking in China or something.

I see Lord Snooty has put the knife in, could well be General Election time.

What I don’t understand is that if you’re worried about Northern Ireland, how does crashing out with no deal do anything other than guarantee a hard border? Because under WTO rules that has to happen.

[Ed P]

Interesting times – I know from bitter experience that if I keep frustrating the desires of my wife she throws a ‘hissy-fit’ and goes off at a random tangent. I wonder if May will do the same!

[The Duke]

End up a GE and one party will run on remaining, will win and then this will be all forgotten about.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Oh no it won’t Duke. Mrs may will put her deal to parliament knowing it will fail but that will give her a legitimate reason for a second referendum. Then we can all vote leave again and get on with it.

[The Duke]

I’d be happy with that too WoF.

[Dave Rice]

But what version of leave?

We know some of the detail now, so what is the answer to dealing with coming out of the customs union? How do you deal with Northern Ireland? Queues at Dover, etc. How do you deal with disputes? If, under WTO rules, we decide to have no tariffs or checks with the EU we must have that with all countries as you cannot favour one over the other.

[Ed P]

I agree we need another three choice referendum: A Hard Brexit , The EU/May fudge, or No Brexit.

When the short and medium term economic impacts on jobs and living standards are detailed for each, we will have an opportunity to see if turkeys vote for Christmas.

[Dave Rice]

I’m afraid the turkeys will only believe it’s Christmas when the axe is falling. Until then the farmer is just part of Project Fear.

[The Duke]

I can’t see there being a leave Dave. I was agreeing that a second ref would sort this out.

It’s going to go to a second ref or a GE and we’ll get a final answer. Around 75%, if the original vote was happy with the status quo. So I can see a bigger turn out this time, as many thought there was little to no chance of a leave win. So about 50% of the voting pop stayed at home. If that 50% wasnt happy with the status quo, they surly would of turned out. So any form of vote to stop this, you’d have to suspect the turn out would be record high turn out.

I recon a fair few leave voters would of change their mind now, however there will be a fair few remain voters that will vote to still leave, because they will want to honour some form of democracy. But I’d lay may chops on that silent 50% making up  the remain vote, and some.

[Dave Rice]

I was referring to Ed’s comments about Turkeys and Christmas. I have a grudging respect for anyone who says “I care so much I don’t care about the consequences” (heard a lot of that in the Scots ref) but those people will not listen to anything but their own views and dismiss anything to the contrary. Not helped by Cameron and Osborne’s gross over playing of the situation, but the same people believe Farage’s equally OTT immigrants are terrorists and will flood in via Turkey has some merit.

Then you point out the drop in the £ and going from the highest growth rate to the lowest and appalling productivity,  but apparently that was going to happen anyway. Brexit has nothing to do with it.

I have stopped trying to persuade anyone now but ask them questions, like I have above about NI and customs posts. There is never any answer or you get “that’s the MPs job” (as long as they do what I want and what I want is the “will of the people”).

One thing I will tell you is that if there is another vote of any description (and that includes a GE) the young will be out in force this time. The resentment coming from my children’s generation (late teens to late 20s) is very real and not just about Brexit. They see no future in this country and now their escape route is being blocked too.

There will be trouble, you can feel it building up, and it’s all down the the “responsible” Conservative party. God knows I don’t think much of Corbyn’s lot either, but I can’t see them ripping the country apart in the way the right have. At least we would have something to get behind or oppose, at the moment all we have is opposition and the more certain factions are appeased, the more they want. The DUP should get on with governing their own country before they start telling others they’re doing things wrong.

Should TM go? If there were anyone competent to replace her I’d say yes, but I don’t think there is. Get the leadership out of the way and go to the Country? Probably another stalemate.

[The Duke]

That is an issue Dave. The government is a mess, but the Labour Party is in the same state.

I don’t don’t know what we need, I just know its F-ing broken atm.

I still think Labour last time round should of run on ending brexit. They would of won, and could of put this to bed with a mandate 2 years ago.

[johnbarry]

Whatever next unrest and rationing

Cheers
John

[Ed P]

You missed the third one John – coup. Apparently there was nearly one before Harold Wilson resigned.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

What sort Ed ? Military coup or glorious revolution ?

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

What sort Ed ? Military coup or glorious revolution ?

All I know came from just two sources. My (at that time) ‘well-connected’ American boss who said that he had been told by a spook at the Embassy that a coup was being planned in the UK during the following week and not to come to London during the following week. The second source was some months later when (iirc) The Sunday Times ran a multi-page article on the failed coup. It was supposedly instigated by a bunch of Generals and some right-wing Surrey pharts. Their idea was to set up a ‘Government’ led by Mountbatton. The coup failed as Harold Wilson stepped down and I guess the coup leaders thought they had achieved their objective.

[edit] I suspect such a coup would have a lower chance of success today. I think due to the advent of social media serving military are more likely to take the side of the populace and wave two fingers at any officer trying to impose a politically biased martial law. However if Brexit causes a breakdown in society then all bets are off.

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