Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

I’m afraid VFM that all this talk of trade omits the one major factor. You have to have a product that people want to buy. Germany has about four times the export trade to China that we do, In 2016 Germany exported $1.25T, making it the 3rd largest exporter in the world, and I seem to remember that Germany is in the EU! We would be a lot better off if the Rees Moggs of the Tory party invested in Britain instead of off-shore.

Correct in part.    Most of those Germany exports are to other EU states.   Indeed Germany exports more to us than to China and more to the Netherlands than to China.   This German dependence on EU states for most of its exports is why Germany desires that its trading partners be locked into the EU and thereby disincentivised by tariffs from sourcing their purchases elsewhere.

As for us, our largest export market by state is the USA but that is declining.   This is why we need to do our own free trade deal with the USA.    Our main exports are machinery and pharmaceuticals and of course financial services; all are exactly what the developing countries of Africa and South America need.    Plus we need their farm produce which free of EU tariffs would be much less expensive that what we pay for similar from the EU.    Of course if you like sandwiches then North American wheat when free of EU tariffs is a fraction of the cost of EU wheat; and more nutritious because many centuries of over-farming in EU countries leaves EU wheat deficient in many minerals such as selenium.

The EU is entirely protectionist and overwhelmingly protectionist of France and Germany.   Indeed, the CAP benefits few states other than France.

If you want to talk about exports the percentage of our exports going to the EU has been in decline for decades despite the size of the EU growing very significantly throughout that period.   The figures are very clear that the EU’s significance to us as a trading partner is increasingly in decline.   We need to look to the future.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I think it’s sad that we are talking in them and us tones. We shouldnt be looking at the imdevidual economies, but more as a one. It’s a sad sad sign of the times.

Who care if someome puts a pit more in the pot than others. What should matter is the overall benifit of all. Is Europe better than pre EEC/EU Europe yes or no? Obviously it’s a yes. So we are doing somthing right.

[Ed P]

Japan has cut a trade deal with the EU and the trade deal with the US is nearing completion. I do not see what we will have to offer in comparison with that of the EU and we do not have enough qualified and experienced staff to negotiate such deals. We will be starting at zero, and negotiating as beggars rather than economic giants. The EU made all the agreements we cannot expect to pick up their exiting deals without negotiations.

As always the devil is in the detail. and I’m afraid as usual our politicians have the organisational skills of a Chris Greyling  when it comes to detail.

I’ll bet that none have waded through the minutia of an export form and the associated business ramifications for either China or India, let alone the US.  If they had, they would not be making their stock idiotic statements about technology coming to the rescue. (Both Sweden and Switzerland have been seeking a technology solution to EU import/exports and they state that they are still many years away from a solution and physical inspection/intervention remains mandatory.)

I hope we do look to the future as life under a Hard Brexit looks dire, and not what anyone will have voted to happen.

We were promised that negotiation with the EU would be easy, they need us more than we need them – huh. It totally failed to comprehend that the possible pain that would be inflicted on the EU would be far less than the pain we will suffer under GATT rules.

 

[The VFM Addict]

Had to share this, it cracked me up…

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

??

[Bob Williams]

The Referendum was the result of a UK illness: too much gazing back into our past and too much misguided patriotism. Politicians used this to lie to the public about how much more we would be in control of our own laws and governance. Whether it was a high proportion of my generation who fell for that or not, is irrelevant. It left a lot of young people hating a vote which they see as an ‘Oldies’ decision and it further divides the country, as if more division were needed.

Thank you Cameron, you really gave it some thought. “Knee Jerk” doesn’t even describe it.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

I think there is something of an additional paradox also, Bob.   Most of us oldies didn’t vote for ‘us’ we voted for what we believe/believed was in the best interests of the young.  I know I did.   Certainly the main benefits of Brexit will not occur in my life time.  Quite the reverse.  My life will be spent in the hard hit years before the benefits come to fruition.   I therefore do not believe ‘oldies’ voted for themselves, for what was in it for them; quite the reverse.

I’m also not sure ‘today’s oldies’ really remember the days of empire.   That was the generation before.   Empire was gone even before WW2 and certainly during and after it.   What we do have though is experience and knowledge.    No giant federalised state has ever succeeded except the USA.   But that’s because the USA was never the coming together of already existent long standing states; it was an amalgam of folks who had all come looking for a new country.    I’m just not sure that is so of European peoples.   The reverse is true.  Just look at the Balkans, Scotland, Catalonia, etc.    Not to mention the states of the former USSR.

Across the existing EU states the far right is growing.   Why is that?   To me it derives of what many see as unfair treatment.    Its that that always fuels the far right.   Hitler motivated Germany initially and in the main against the unfair reparations it had been forced to pay post WW1.    I’m not likening the EU to the Nazi’s.   Rather I’m saying it is the nature of the EU that gives life blood to the far right.   The feeling of distant control or control by others over whom one has no real and direct say.   I have never been against European states co-operating and working together.   But the EU bureaucracy has long since taken on a life of its own with a hunger for more and more power.   It is not run by the member states, it increasingly runs the member states.    As always, power corrupts and more and more power becomes the end that is sought more than anything.    Do you remember how Mugabe was once the saviour of Rhodesia?    Its not just individuals who can distort that way.   So can anything with a life of its own and to me the EU bureaucracy is beginning to show the early signs of such madness.    Its becoming the Hotel California…….You can check in any time you want but you can never leave.    I genuinely find it unfathomable why more folks do not recognise that the tail is increasingly wagging the dog.   Who really thinks the EU states control Junker and Tusk, etc.   God, Junker even visibly acts like a Caesar indulging in drunken orgies of wine and food; and nominating his side-kicks to senior positions.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

It’s better than that Ed. If we want to make a deal with Japan, as that have a major deal with the EU, in the small print, Japan have to declare it with the EU. Then when we are negotiating with Japan, the EU have to give the green light to every detail of it

This isn’t just Japan its evey 3rd party EU trader. So Canada and the US. They already have deals with China too, so they ad in the world’s already has all its deals worked out

We won’t be able to make and deals that put us in tla better position. It actually makes the ‘soverenty to make our own deals’ absolutely rubbish as we would literally need to negotiate with the EU on behalf of country ‘x’.

Also i heard yest day that more car flat pack erectors jag/landrover, are ‘looking’ at their future here.

Now given they run on JIT deliveries, 60 to 100 a day, and only keep abound 60 to 90 mins worth of parts to keep the line running, this whole border issue is well… An issue.

But let’s put this to one side for a tick.  we don’t manufacture much, we import it, put it together, and then ship it to market. Jaguar and a Landrover (family working at Halewood Landrover building evokes), market atm is China, USA and EU, then UK (iirc), the bulk of the high end go to China, so the money. The parts for said cars are built on Thr mainland EU. So it makes sense to me to build my flat pack factory in about the centre of where all the parts are from, on the mainland (freedom of movement and zero tarrifs) then sell to China and the US  via the tarrifs agreed in the EU Ch/US deal. As it will be better than the tarrifs we will be able to negotiate.

So I don’t think The uk gov could be able to incentive and subsidise  LR/Jag for them to even think about thinking about staying in the uk.

Also another issue if we lose the Halewood site, is there is alot of 3rd party small businesses on that site that are only there for LR. (I have one friend that makes despoke seats for Rangrovers, his job and 1000s others will go too. The supporting satalite businesses, will up sticks and set up close to the future LR factory, and take a tenth of the current staff at best then hire local. Only to ease the move.

So yeah, another day another project fear that is turning to fact.

Also anther close place to me, how long will British Aerospace  be able to compete for tenures when they will have tarrifs. They won’t. They too are full of small satalite companies that depend on them. They are only their because of the location. These are high paid jobs mostly, so I can see them just leaving for the EU.

Add all that up and that is a big drop in Thr local economy and the treasury. Lost income tax, business taxes, and the loss of wages will then a vat, and a loss of spending in the villages and towns, which could lead to more job loses

Another day anther project fear turn to facts.

I’m jet to be told of one simple thing that will make us better briny out. Just one in any area. Economic, social, infrastructure, logistics, religion, race.

But before you all rush to answer such a “simple” question, I’d like you to add how it will effect you, and why you can’t do such a thing now. This isn’t a Troll, I really want anything to grasp to. I’m sure I must be missing somthing.

I can’t even think of a single reason to leave nevermind try to think up an argument to rationalise it.

I can thin of one. I don’t like brown faces, and I’ll want to see less. Even though the majority of trh brown faces are either British (they are staying) , African and Asian, where leaving or staying won’t change that. They won’t change, as we could of changed the non Europe movement decades ago. So even race isn’t an argument for brexit.

Now if we down grade full racism to the lesser xenophobia, all the pols etc (EU migrates) will be staying and producing off spring, so they too ain’t leaving. The way the pound is falling, whey won’t be coming to work either, given they could work closer to home for trh same money.

So I’m at a true loss.

[Ed P]

Forget about the Empire and move on, we were kicked out 70 years ago and those days will never return.

For those interested in the full facts about the democratically appointed EU Commission they can be read here.

If you dislike some of the EU regulations, very few are directly translated into UK law as our own Civil Service has to demonstrate ‘value’. Unlike (say) the French we tighten up regulations and remove all the working latitude. The French tend to take the opposite tack and add more slack.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I already posted the facts about what the EU commission thinks it is from their own website Ed.

I see the latest summit went as expected.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Oops sorry I posted the EU councils view on what it thought it was. I posted Wikipedia’s view on the commission.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

And I forgot one.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_the_European_Union

Fortunately we will soon be able to forget the whole lot and just deal with the foreign and trade departments.

 

 

[Ed P]

I sincerely hope that we get the chance of a referendum on the outcome to the Brexit negotiations with the option to stay in the EU..

What is being delivered is not the easy painless deal that Bojo et al promised.

The Brexit promises were all upsides with no possible downsides any objections were dismissed out of hand. We would get all our contributions back, but enjoy trade with the EU. There would be no impact on Financial Services, and we would get  full control of our borders to eliminate immigration (the Faragh poster view) and a positive boost to our economy with all the new markets in which we are going to cut much better deals than the EU. Plus of course the freedom to export without meeting foreign regulations.

The reality of course is totally different. Every single one of those promises will not be met. Even control of our borders is laughable if people can just wander across from Eire.

[Bob Williams]

No paradox here VFM: I voted Remain because I believed it was in the best interests of the young. Specifically, my grandchildren, their peers and a working future in an area which is at last getting other than seasonal work, thanks to a number of EU companies investing and building in the Humber area of Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire. I was worried that they would leave and take all that work away. It now appears that most will stay, but that can change. As for “today’s Oldies”: I was born 2 months before the end of WWII, to parents who were 40 at my birth, born in 1904 and 1906. I actually used to talk to them and listen to their tales of living during the days of Empire. Neither were impressed by what they had to live through and both agreed that The Good Old Days were anything but good. I come from a deeply Socialist family and I know that my dad would have agreed with my choice of vote, if only because they remembered both World Wars clearly. They knew that WWI was the most unnecessary war that caused slaughter of generations across Europe, the result of outmoded anachronistic rule by a select few who promoted that slaughter. In fact, during WWI my grandfather, a founder member of the Independent Labour Party, was an active pacifist and was abused for it. The birth of the EEC created a bordeless Europe and a determination by the member states to never again make war on each other. That has worked for 73 years. The growth of the Right that you refer to, is exactly what happened in Germany in 1933, but it does not have the same power to attract enough numbers. That is because the situation in Germany between the Wars, is very different. Germany and indeed the whole world, was in a deep depression. Germany suffered much more than any other nation because of the vast Reparations that the Allied Powers, particularly France, imposed upon them. It led to the rise of Hitler and the Nazis and the truth is that WWI reparations were the cause of WWII: you can almost say that II was just a continuation of I. I have spoken to older Germans during my 8 years there, who told me about their suffering. In this country, we have not been invaded for so many centuries that we have no history of millions of refugee peoples fleeing from an enemy. We cannot therfore share the innate fears of other Europeans.

I believe that your problem, is that you refuse to perceive the real truth behind this whole Brexit mess: that the UK will be in a long lasting slump after March 2019. Read Steve and Ed‘s last posts here and try to see what I mean. There are going to be some very hard times for our country and I cannot see when they will end. If the Tories stay in power, and I cannot envisage anything but a close decision there, cuts will be made that will make the last series look like chicken feed. If Labour gets in, the amount of Public Spending will increase exponentially and we will be even worse off. Can you not see all this?

 

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Yes Ed. As the EU says. We should be given a chance to make the correct choice. Just like Ireland and Denmark.

I fear we are to stupid to get it right in a second vote though so we will probably need a third and a fourth and a fith.

[The VFM Addict]

To a degree I can but what of the EU?    The problem I see with Remainers is that they perceive the EU to be the land of milk and honey for our exports.  Go look at the figures. Fewer and fewer and fewer of our total exports go to Europe year on year.   The fall in percentage is even increasing.   There has been a steady and constant decline for 30 years despite the increase in cars being built here for export to the EU.   Plainly our future relies on exports to the rest of the world not to the EU.    Yet we cannot take full advantage of such by striking trade deals with those countries.    I say again go look at the figures.

That’s the economic picture and heaven knows what the political picture will be?    The EU is federalising at an alarming rate.    Yet the internal rifts and conflicts are increasing.   The number of groups pushing their states to leave although currently small are growing rapidly.   No-one can argue with that because it is clearly there to see.   Currently Merkel with the help of Macron keeps the bloc together but even the Germans are becoming more Eurosceptic with the rise of AfD.    I simply do not see the next Chancellor being able to carry the German population into supporting the bloc financially, often at Germany’s cost, in the way Merkel has.

So is the EU future really any clearer than a Brexit future?  If so then certainly not by much.  It remains a huge unknown quantity even today.    The argument about the EEC/EU being the reason there have been no more wars in Europe is plain silly to me.   Do you really think Germany or France or Italy would have gone to war these last fifty years were it not for the EEC/EU?  Other factors than the EEC/EU have been the reason for peace.

The question which I think focuses the mind best of all is this – If we were not today a member of the EU and looking at it as it is today along with where it appears to be heading, would you really vote to join?    When I ask myself that question the answer is a resounding, ‘No’.    And if that is the case then Leave, despite its difficulties remains for me the right decision.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

You are making up scenarios to suit your argument. That is an impossible question, you have no idea of the state of the UK if we hadn’t been in the EU for 40 years. Look at the state we were in when we joined! The sick man of Europe. Why would that be any different if we’d stayed out? If we were in that state now we’d be biting their hand off to join.

It’s since we have been IN the EU that we’ve prospered. Go look at the figures. No-one is saying it’s the land of milk and honey, that’s putting words in others mouths.  Of course there are flaws in the EU, or if not flaws things that not everyone will agree with. With that many people involved how could there not be? It’s exactly the same within these borders. But the alternative of the UK out on it’s own will be far, far worse.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Oh come on Dave. In the 1970’s we were the sick man of Europe because we were still paying the Americans for WWII and the Marxists were busy trying to make the country ungovernable so they could step in with a peoples solution. Joining an EEC wasn’t a bad idea then. We have long since pulled ourselves out of that mess and an EU never was right for us so its time to say good bye.

[Dave Rice]

We joined in 1973 during a Conservative Govt that was elected in 1970. Are you saying Ted Heath was a Marxist?

The final payment for WWII was made in 2006. At the end of WWII the national debt was 1/3rd of GDP. It’s now 86%.

What was your point again?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

No Ted was just week. He had no chance of keeping a lid on the Marxist forces that dam near achieved their aim of a peoples republic of Great Britain. We have indeed  finished paying for WWII and it took decades. Now is the time to manage our own money, not give it to an institution that may, if we ask nicely, let us have some of it back.

[Author]

Posts