Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

“A quick trip to Europe soon tells you it’s what WE add to the EU rules ”

An excellent point Dave, in virtually every aspect of EU regulation we have added to it and tightened them up to the extent we have lost all the deliberate working flexibility that was left in the regulations.

Personal privacy and freedoms in the UK will be the main things lost by a withdrawal from the EU. Our Government has a very nasty history of spying on its population and using Nanny State laws to restrict personal freedoms. We will lose the very little protection that ECHR brings to act as a check against such abuses.

[The Duke]

I was in zarragoza a few week back and I wanted to get a shot of a builder 4 stories high, hanging over the rail of some scaffoldingh, holding on with one hand, no tethering, only one foot on the scaffod board, full stetch to reach where he needed.

This was on a multi million high rise. All I could think of is where is this EU H&S. I felt silly taking a pic so never did.

I recall mid 90s when with my dad on site,iIwas late high school years, and older men moaing about EU health and safety killing the job,as they couldn’t stand on a crate up scaffolding. I’m sure the Spanish then was 6 crates high on their scaffold back then.

[Dave Rice]

From Linked In today:

British pharmaceutical companies have been cut out of medicine contracts seven months ahead of Brexit. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has told British companies the long lead-time involved in assessing medicines means it can no longer fulfil lead contracts, as there’s no guarantee the expert would be part of the EU after March 2019. Instead, existing contracts with the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in Britain are being reallocated to bloc members. The EMA has already commenced its move from Britain to new headquarters in Amsterdam, resulting in the loss of 900 roles.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/publications/history-european-council-fifty-years-summit-meetings/

A history of the European council and its aims. Worth a quick read.

[The Duke]

Don’t be silly Dave is all project fear mk2.

WRONG it’s project reality…..

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission

And here is the Wiki take on the European commission and its powers.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament

And finally the European Parliament.

Now tell me that our national government has any real power left while serving under that lot. They would be lucky to sign off a new box of paper clips on their own.

[The Duke]

I don’t care for our national government though. Given how incompitant they are, I’d happy get rid of them. After all they are just another level of BS to navigate through.

If I had any faith in them, history is against them, I’d happily want them to stay. Sadly I don’t.

I don’t know why anyone would be that arsed to see Westminster gome. I’ve never heard anyone say anything positive about them in my 40 years. Now it seems we should all be fighting on their behalf.

They make a good living as it is, and by your accounts above then have just enough power to not sink us. And you think we should give them more. Lol.

My interest in brexit has never been who governess us, I tully don’t care, luck birthed me here, I could of been us, of Indian, but I ended here. (or started lol). By interest is economy. Will I (and us all by definition ) be better off in or out. It’s clearly in. It was then, and it’s being proved each day to be true. So I’m more stay today, than I was back then.

Now if I’d voted leave, I’d be feeling a little silly by now. I know almost all my family that voted leave, have done a 180. A few still want to go, out of a mix of not wanted it admit being wrong, and two, issues on Europe I can only assume exist in Red tops and thier own heads.

There may be some positives to leaving, but the positives for staying far far more.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I only saw ONE good reason to be in the EU and that was free trade. The restrictions and quotas they place on that already make it a dubious honour. We may end up paying for a trade agreement after Brexit (I don’t see why we should) but we already pay vast sums now. My main reason for voting leave is to disentangle us from the EU institutions and their self interested rules. I DO believe that ounce out politicians regain responsibility we will lose a lot of those who see it as a cushy number and maybe gain some who are in it to make a difference.

 

[Ed P]

@Graham, Have you ever filled in  GATT import/export declarations and handled the massive customs bonds you need to lodge in escrow for the exports? Given the volume of our trade with the EU I shudder to think of the manpower required and the cash flow impacts this will have on our exporters.

However, I guess all of this has little meaning in the context of our  illusory Post-Brexit improved democracy.

[The Duke]

Ed if no deal happens, we don’t have the infrastructure or man power to cope. I hoping an extention happens as on away the week of brexit. Leave a couple of days before, and back a couple of days after. Going the champions league final.

 

Already got my international driving licence, as that will be void if ‘no deal’ and atm I’m speaking with insurers and they don’t know if I’ll be insured or not, they said presume you won’t be at this point. I asked about extra international insurance, and they said as it sands under a no deal, no UK based insurer will be able to insure a (product) in the EU.

 

Lso the current pan from aviva, is when in france the day before brexit (assimg no deal) call a French of Spanish (as that’s where I’m going) company and get temp cover. Now that will be fun, as my French and smanish is limited to haliday crap not insurance chat.

 

The uk aew treating brexit like a political negotiation, the EU  are treating it as a legal seperation. We are playing the wrong game. They have the cards, we bow and jump, end of.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

We have all the money Duke. The only cards the EU have are jokers and they have played most of them already. Sorry if your holiday gets disrupted this year.

[Ed P]

Brexit promised :

a) NO economic impact except benefits from not having to pay our contributions to the EU budget.

b)A healthier economy

c) Reduced immigration into the UK through control of our borders.

d) Massive reduction in bureaucracy and control over all manufacturing and agricultural regulations.

i.e. All cake and jam with no wasps

 

The reality with a ‘Hard Brexit’ is:

a) A huge hit on our economy that could last decades. It could well bring our car industry to its knees, and our scientific research efforts will drop down to the level of a third world country. We will not just damage the present day but also the future.

b) Britain already lags the EU in economic growth. A Hard Brexit will almost eliminate inward investment into the UK.

c) Immigration WILL reduce – who in the right mind will want to come to a third world country?

d) GATT trade massively increases bureaucracy and the costs of doing business. Exporters of all products (including fish and agricultural) will still have to comply with all regulations, except we will no longer have any say over EU regs.

When politicians lie and fail to meet their promises the public is given the right of an election to express the right to change our minds. In the circumstances I see no difference between having a second referendum and a second election.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I dispute every one of your points Ed except that there will be some disruption immediately after leaving. The thing is though we haven’t left yet and none of the potential benefits can be realised until we do.

[Ed P]

Graham unless you are an economist or are experienced in making international capital investment decisions I really do not see what basis you have for disputing my assertions.

a) We already have the lowest growth rate in Europe. A hard Brexit will  cause a massive sterling devaluation. Although normally this would boost exports we will have no agreements other than a problematic GATT to replace those of the EU.

b) I can state unequivocally that those who make international investment decisions hate uncertainty, and unknown risk. Any such investments will only take place if there is a massive risk premium, i.e not many investments. The scientific community are expressing major concerns over the impacts of a Hard Brexit.

c) Immigration into the UK (including illegals) has already dropped.

d) As I stated before GATT massively increases bureaucracy and paperwork. We are not geared up to handle it. If you are going to dispute that – where are your facts?

Maybe  in some mythical future an exit from the EU will bring economic benefit to all that exceed the benefits of staying in the EU, but I fail to see the logic in that assertion. It assumes that the EU will fail to negotiate future agreements such as their recent Japanese free trade agreement, while we will still be struggling trying to negotiate 160 agreements of our own let alone new ones.

 

[The Duke]

I’m with Ed, and read economics for 4 years, so have a decent basic understanding of economics, micro, macro and its effects.

Nothing  about brexit added up at the beginning. Mainly because brexit was a movement by many different factions promising crap they had no power to enforce. It’s very much like The lib dems promising free uni for all, easy when you think you won’t win. Then oh shit, you accidentally win and you actually have to do what you promised, but can’t.

Short story it’s easy to promise the world when you don’t really think you’ll win. That is exactly what happened with the vote leave.

They would of been happy with a little run, a 20% vote share. They could of said to the followers ‘we tried’. And probably got a good ten year paid gig trying to further the cause.

But 100 other factions popped up promising even more, each one a different movement with a different view on brexit, and oh shit they actually won.

But won by the fake promises of 100s of small parties (factions) making promises they had no rights too.

Almost every faction dispanded the day after, even the offical vote leave party retired on day one. This just highlights they (MPs) wasnt in it to win.

All the promises didn’t add up, and can’t be serviced. It’s impossible.

Brexit was a mess from day one. The only sure thing is no one will be happy with the outcome, whatever it is.

My view was always the numbers, I don’t care about my political, racial, or ideologies, I look at the bottom line, and that always said stay.

I’m not bothered about immigration, or who makes our laws. Actually I don’t like the job our own lot have been doing for a long time, so I’d happily hamd the lot over to the EU and be a satalite state.

Ive always like the idea of an EU army. If I was 18 and the EU army was a thing I’d be all over a southern France or northen Italy regiment. He’ll yeah.

Edited my terrible spelling. Probably missed one or ten still.

[The Duke]

Lol, my phone or WiFi must of had a meltdown. No idea whey it posted 4 times.

One up side to being a mod is I can clean up.

But I never usally edit my posts, bars spellings, as I detest people changing what’s said, especially if a convosarion has branched off it. It’s like changing history. If you write something, stand by it.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Four years reading economics so you posted it 4 times then Duke ?

I have not formally studied economics but it is one of my interests. Most of it is based on some seriously dodgy assumptions such as nation states cannot go bust so they can move their dept around forever. On top of that, if economics could predict the future we would have some seriously rich economists instead of a load of sad cases spouting from the LSE.

[Bob Williams]

Steve amongst all that was some very good sense and an effective summing up of the bloody mess our useless politicians have left us with.

I see the feelings behind your statements and I share the feelings and the meanings.

Ed, maybe all those truths need to be repeated until everyone understands what a mess we are going to be in within 12 months time.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Just to make my position clear I am of the Mrs Thatcher shop keepers daughters school of economics, live within your means, get value for money and control inflation via interest rates.

[Author]

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