Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

The WTO has just scuppered the ‘Hard’ Brexiteers position on EU trade. If there is no deal then WTO rules MUST be applied equally to all countries i.e a 25% tax on BLTs. As 60% of our food is imported from the continent food prices would shoot up in price and our auto industry would be thrown into disarray.FT Link

Yesterday’s Hard Brexit paper already needs revision!

Correspondingly if no taxes are applied to the EU then every other import must also be tax free! Much as I’d love this situation, it would turn Northern Ireland into a smugglers paradise for Eire — I just cannot see the EU accepting that situation.

[The Duke]

Yes, the 3rdcparty country tarrifs was no secret. We will be on the equivalent to emergency tax for all exports.

Have you noticed if you try to book an easy jet flight in to Europe on April th 1st on wards you can’t. You can the day before brexit. But easyJet don’t even know if they will be allow to. Evey one is in limbo, it’s all starting to hit home.

I’m away in Madrid (CL final) on the first. I’ve already got my international driving licence, given its likely ours will not be valid. I’ve spoken to the insurer and they have said atm they don’t know if my UK insurance will still be covered, I need to ask closer to the time. I then ask, would I be above to by euro insurance, they said at this moment, they don’t know if they will be allowed to sell insurance for euro use, if that’s the case, my best bet would be to sort out temp cover in France (or Spain) the day before brexit happens.

So all this carry ons as normal, is BS. This is a simple road trip, imagine if I was Nissan and relied on 200 deliveries from multiple EU nations. I’d be worried.

We seem to think because with have all this manufacturing jobs her it won’t effect us. It’s wrong. We are basically a hugh production line. All the ‘bit’ come in to the country then leave.

All thoughts expect tarrifs are going to kills us. Oh plus all the JIT plants will be fucked, given the trucks won’t be able to get out of customs.

But yea it’s all simple, well just carry on as normal.

We not only lose the free trade area, we also lose every link with the 100s of other nations that have agreements with the uk.

So we will first fall onto 3rd country WTO tarrifs. Untill wi work out tarrifs deals with the WTO, that itself will take 20 years. As there is not 27 nations that we have to get thr nod off, I think is 160(or more) . There is 100,000s items to be tarifed, then we need to issue then to the WTO then every member gets to pick them apart, over and over, untill we can make all members happy.

We are leaving one club, where we sit close to the top table, to enter a worse club at the lowest run.

The EU membership subscription will seem a bargain. In 2 years time.

Hey, but we get our sovereignty back! Can anyone please explain what that actually means.ascto me it seems a buzz word to catch the ignorant.

I can’t see a single reason why anyone would still be in favour of this shit. It makes zero sense.

[The Duke]

Ed under WTO 3rd party rules, we could trade with zero export tarrifs, however if the country we are importing from is a WTO or EU (by extension ) so most of the world, have to, by the terms of WTO tarrifs, add the 3rd party tarrifs to an they shipped to us.

So our manufacturers then would be paying daft taxes (tarrifs) on the things that make their final product, but then be expected to export it elsewhere with zero tarrifs. This would devastate our manufacturing. Especally given most of it is foreign owned, it would be more dost officiant to move it into the EU. Which why they picked us originally.

So we will need to match the silly tarrifs to offset the tarrifs set on us. The tho still has a huge negative impact on manufacturing. As if I build a widget for 100£ (let’s say a car astra) and so do the Polish (as they do). On April the first Poland car will still be priced at £100, where as ours, will cast the world £125-160. Who does jinny foreigner by from us or Poland.

This has been discussed to death over the last year, but the Brextremists would just call it more ‘project fear’.

But what do we expect, when the guy running the whole brexit campaign said “we are sick of professionals opinions.” live on the BBC.

[Bob Williams]

The blind leading the lame, followed by the indifferent, harried along by the False Patriots. All supervised and continually lied to, by the criminally incompetent.

Not one person in our government has a clue what to do about the situation we are heading for. I had changed my Remain stance a while ago, just wanting a resolution to get out with a decent future for the British people. Now it looks like a Train Crash.

Give us another Referendum, ask the EU for a two year extension, call a General Election to predate the new Referendum.

Someone please assassinate Farage, how much damage can one failed politician create?

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Steve its all about ‘democracy’ whatever that means, and the UK version is one of the worst forms of actual democracy  — It is designed to give the electorate the semblance of power while actually preserving the rule of the Establishment (Yes Minister – 101).

[Dave Rice]

No, no, no, you cannot say any of this because no-one knows what the future holds. You’re just talking the country down. You’re all Remaoners who just want to ignore the will of the people. This is all Project Fear Part 2.

Personally I couldn’t give a stuff about tariffs, trade finds a way around prices. BMW still sell cars here after the 20% drop in the £. I’ve always said it’s everything else that will bugger us up, especially the paper work.

I don’t think people knew just how entangled we are with every part of our lives. Some are only going to understand when it’s too late. What it will also show is just how much of the bad part of our lives comes from Westminster, not Brussels. What it’s already shown is the politicians, Conservatives especially, are quite willing to tear this country apart for their own dogma. They do not have the interests of the country in mind, purely their own.

[The VFM Addict]

The way you are ranting about the Tories do I detect you now want Labour?   I’m confused ?????    I was sure you said you’d leave the UK if Corbyn got in.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

Not sure how you worked that out from what I said above, and neither would I call it a rant. But you seem to enjoy provoking anyone who doesn’t agree with you. Still it distracts from facing the negative issues I suppose.

[The VFM Addict]

Sorry, Dave, I took it from your phrase ‘Conservatives especially’.   If you were referring to my believing that you said you’d leave the UK if Corbyn got in, then no you did not say that in the post above but elsewhere, which IIRC. was somewhere in this thread.

I certainly wasn’t trying to distract from the negative issues of Brexit any more than you were from the positive issues.   Neither of us can know for sure how things will go if there were to be a hard Brexit.  What I do know is that the forecasts from the experts of what would happen the day after the referendum if we voted Leave could not have been more inaccurate than they were.   They said unemployment would rise immediately and that we would go into recession with four quarters of negative growth.   We all now know how wrong they were.   It was the same predictions a few years back if we did not join the Euro.   And how many experts predicted the Banking crash of a few years back which was catastrophic !!!    If anything the rule of thumb seems to be expect the opposite of what the experts predict when it comes to financial forecasts.   I don’t know if you are aware but the the Director General of the WTO has discredited the fear and doom predictions from the treasury.

Roberto Azevêdo told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It’s not going to be the end of the world, in the sense that trade is going to stop and that everything is going to fall down, no.”    “But it’s not going to be a walk in the park either.”    Which to me seems a balanced position.   I think most Leavers expected such when they voted.    Short term some quite significant turbulence but far better mid-term to long-term prospects being out.    Don’t forget, Dave, that the EU’s share of world trade has been falling for thirty years and if anything the decline is increasing.   On top of that the EU has big financial problems and political ones too.   Those who remain will carry huge burdens.   TBH when Merkel falls I cannot see the Germans being willing to carry the heavy financial load they have done and Macron does not really have the gravitas to rally the other states.

As for politics, as much as I dislike Trump he has established a new paradigm or perhaps reminded us of an old one.   That is that politicians who actually do what was said on the tin are respected by the majority of the electorate.   Populism as I see it is a term that has always been hijacked and used as a term of abuse.   Should it be?   Surely populism is at the very core of democracy, politicians doing what they said they would do in their manifesto’s; that is to say what was proven popular with the electorate by the fact that they got elected.

We have different opinions you and I but what I know for certain is that the question of whether a full Brexit would be good or bad for the UK is an unknown until, as the Yanks say, “we suck it and see”.    If not this time then sure as hell the Eurosceptics in all political parties and Leavers in the electorate as a whole are not going to vanish until that core question is answered conclusively.

 

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Dave Rice]

“Experts” with a political agenda (Osborne, Cameron, etc) came up with the more fanciful predictions – as they always do. But that’s the one we always hear about. Anyone with half a brain could see they were rubbish and what was behind them, indeed I think they were counter productive. I thought the same about Boris’s”sunny uplands” too and for the same reason although he didn’t define what a sunny upland was.

However there were many who predicted what has happened. An immediate major drop in the £, which still hasn’t recovered, and a drop in growth which almost went into recession. A fall in investment due to the uncertainty and the fact that the £££s that were to go to the NHS was a myth. I remember in Truro Boris offered the same money to the fishermen, farmers and the Cornwall County Council, all to make up for the EU subsidies. That was on Day One.

Then there was the “this will be the easiest trade deal in history” tale. Either Dr Fox is incompetent (remember why he was an ex-minister) or just lying. Take your pick but it’s all tell them what they want to hear today and deny it later. I have to say that he has become more realistic lately though and acknowledges that there are some genuine concerns that can’t be dismissed as Project Fear. But perhaps he like being a minister again?

What I am still waiting for is the Brexiteer MPs plan. They know the devil is in the detail and the detail is extremely complex. All they can do is rubbish whatever anyone else comes up with and blame the EU as they always have done. No deal becomes the easy way out, you can just blame it all on someone else.

There can be no disputing the fact that the Conservative party is tearing itself apart, we see it daily. And yes Labour is in the same predicament but not to the same magnitude. Both Corbyn and May are totally lacking in any leadership qualities and holding on to what they have got by any means possible. The interests of the country doesn’t seem to be on either’s agenda. They will find whatever money they need down the back of the sofa whilst telling others there is no money or it’s why that’s the reason to rob them (again, take your pick).

As you very well know “I’m leaving the country if…” isn’t declaration of intent, it’s like I could murder for a cup of coffee or I could do that with one hand tied behind my back.

Sat in the pub on Tuesday after my mates funeral with old friends I haven’t seen for a long time. Everyone is getting the biker bug again as the kids have flown the nest and we can pretend we are the people we used to be ? Like Steve’s post, the possibility that the next European Tour may turn out to be more complicated than the last (20+ years ago) has seen us postpone even the thought of planning it. Si made a good point, borders are just invisible lines put up by people in power to bugger up everyone else. If they were in the “interests of the people” inside them why do they keep on changing? We can’t even use the excuse of an island nation. The UK borders have nothing to do with the coastline and a large chunk of those inside aren’t happy with them. Hence devolution and the whole NI situation.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I see in the news today that the EU has a “secret” plan in case of a no deal Brexit.

They plan to carry on using the old rules as they will be the same as they were the day before and to follow up with a flurry of new directives as fast as they can get them approved.

Who could of predicted that ?

Oh yeh it was me ?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

In the event of a no deal my next prediction is a long round of tit for tat legislation that does no one any good.

[Ed P]

It is obvious that Brexit will not produce the benefits promised by the pro-Brexit lot. A second referendum based on a more honest appraisal of the impacts on the economy , jobs and disposable income over  the next ten years is required.

If the country then continues to walk happily down a jingoistic black hole then I’ll be advising my kids to emigrate asap.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I quite agree Ed, what we need is a second vote. 5 years after we leave !

[The Duke]

Well the EU can carry on as before, it’s us that won’t if X’s no deal happens.

I predict an 11h extention, then we will accept the EU offer of entry to tje free mark on their terms. Acceptance of the European court of HRs, and the free movement of prople. But we will not be part of the EU.

So basically carry on as before, but with less control. Good job brexiteers. You actually gave away more ‘soverenty’ !

So yes I agree, everything will just continue as it.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I predict nothing of the sort. The EU hasn’t even offered a deal and I don’t expect them to. The only choice left is stay or go and we voted go.

[Ed P]

Others have had two referendums on the same issue – in fact Eire did just that at least once with  EU referendums they have held. link

In other words ‘respecting the vote of the British electorate’ is a meaningless phrase based on experiences elsewhere.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Er no. “others” were bullied or bribed into voting again until they came up with the “correct” result. Once that had been achieved they weren’t asked again were they ?

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

The only result that remainers will accept as valid is remain.

[Ed P]

If that is so another referendum will produce the same result – except it will not.

It is a fact that younger people abstain from voting and older people die. It is also a fact that the greatest support for Brexit was in those over 65. The FT projected that even assuming people continue to ignore all the obvious pro-Brexit lies, by 2021 the vote will be reversed. link

[Author]

Posts