Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[The VFM Addict]

I wrote the following yesterday.

The VFM Addict wrote:

I wonder if May has seen today’s YouGov Survey. The writing is on the wall yet again, revealing that Immigration Control is still a HUGE issue. Folks rarely voice it up front because of fear of being called racist. But polls show it. If May fails to retake FULL control of immigration in whatever deal she eventually agrees then the Tories will be slaughtered at the next GE. There is no question whatsoever about that. Like it or not polls have shown that the only Tory with any chance of beating Corbyn is BoJo. Gove, Javid and Hunt have been shown in polls to fall far behind Corbyn. Paradoxically, although I am a staunch Brexiteer, I do not agree with the sentiments of either of the two paragraphs above although I acknowledge the reality of them. I am very pro-immigration albeit with a level playing field that gives non-EU citizens equal opportunity with EU citizens. My reason for leaving was always identical to that of Tony Benn; which was that the EU is inherently non-democratic. Such is surely so given that the EU (the institution not the 27 other member states) is committed to ensuring we don’t get a good deal for fear other member states may leave. Give that some thought. Is that not the ‘institution’ putting its needs and desires first before those of its individual members’ right of self-determination? As regards BoJo, I am not convinced that he is generally the ideal Tory Leader. But I do acknowledge the fact that he is the only Tory with realistic prospect of beating Corbyn. He would drive for a true Brexit rather than Brino. Therefore he may well be the right man for the moment. In this respect (although only in that respect) he might indeed be somewhat like his hero Churchill in that he will get the current job done only to be booted out (as was WC in 1946) after the battles were won. I spoke to two Tory activists last night who also hold this view and tell me it is pretty much the growing consensus among party members. They’ll fight for BoJo because he has a chance of winning but have little appetite for fighting for any of those who have pledged allegiance to what they see as the Chequers Sell-Out. Gove’s currency in particular is nose-diving with the party grassroots. One of those local association members said not to rule out an outsider. She told me that if Penny Mordaunt abandon’s May fairly soon she might well become Tory leader. She is liked both by Tory MP’s and by grassroot Tories. This being so she could become one of the final two candidates that the Tory MPs put to the party. Carrying little past baggage Penny could well beat BoJo or anyone else she was up against. I wasn’t so sure. But the more I think about it today the more I realise that it could indeed happen. I think I’ll check out the betting odds because she could be a very good outside bet if one gets one’s money on early enough. EDIT – 33/1. Had to be worth a small punt. £20 on instantly.

Now look what gets posted on ConservativeHome today.   It seems that the tip I got about Penny Mordaunt was indeed spot on.   Far, far better than a 33/1 outsider.

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[Ed P]

Three years ago BoJo was an attractive option as a PM, however since then through his actions he has become spoiled goods and a liability.

a) In his role as Foreign Minister he was a total failure with all except Trump. (not exactly a great endorsement btw). He made too many gaffs that will come home to haunt him if ever he seeks high office.

b) He showed that he is untrustworthy. Not only with his stupid dissembling over the EU payments (control versus cash), he really blotted his copybook by fleeing overseas rather than voting on his Heathrow ‘promise’.

If the Conservatives select BoJo they will be dead meat at the next election!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Really Ed ? I think BoJo is a bit of a duffer myself but he still managed to get himself elected as a conservative major in a massively labour London.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

Really Ed ? I think BoJo is a bit of a duffer myself but he still managed to get himself elected as a conservative major in a massively labour London.

That was all prior to his becoming an MP. BoJo has a very high IQ but has the EQ of a slug, in addition there is a massive disconnect between brain and mouth.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

And that is his appeal. He may well joke his way into power but if he gets it he WILL do what he says he wants to do. Same as me, really really really get out. Sort the DETAILS later.

[Dave Rice]

Will he? British Politician Johnson Wants Turkey To Join The E.U. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLQ3Gbiopc4

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market
Daniel Hannan MEP

Only a madman would actually leave the Market
Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer

Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They’re rich. They’re happy. They’re self-governing
Nigel Farage

The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initally attractive for some business people
Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive

Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK
Arron Banks

“Whatever one’s views on the EU debate, many will agree that parliamentary sovereignty should be the key focus in any renegotiations.” Jack Lopresti, my local MP who then went mad when it was ruled that Parliament must be consulted over Article 50.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s voting record shows he’s voted consistently against a wholly-elected House of Lords, and consistently against removing its hereditary peers, until they don’t vote the way he wants…

You  just cannot believe what any politician of any persuasion says.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Yes Dave DETAILS. We must first leave and then get our MPs and Whitehall to do what they are paied for. Why do you think they are not keen on thar?

 

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

That

[The Duke]

Just spent an hour hiding from the sun and this popped up into my yt feed. 3 men in a pub talking about brexit.

It’s an hour but worth a listen.

https://youtu.be/Sx4AF-3Rd44

[Ed P]

Hard Brexiters will hate it — too many concrete facts.

I can just imagine BoJo blustering about it  all  being FUD. He will reassure people by saying that everyone knows it will be alright on the night. He will say there are many simple solutions such as a shutdown of our own road haulage business and flinging the doors wide open to the Continental haulage companies with no border checks — see, it is trivial to solve such issues!

The bit about using the Army to move stuff around needs to be explored a little. We no longer have adequate refinery capacity to meet our current transport fuel needs and about 25% of our strategic reserve of oil stocks is held overseas. About 50% of our diesel is imported, and about 60% of our petrol. link  Lets hope that ways are found to keep fuel stocks moving or else we may have to put the Household Cavalry on more productive duties such as pulling petrol tankers about the countryside!

[The Duke]

I’ll be getting my new car about November December, on the plus side I’ve gone for petrol (first in about 15 plus years), but I best be able to fuel it. Lol.

It all seems to be getting quite serious now.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Come on Ed, how about a bit of creative thinking. We can put the idle road haulage people to work moving fuel can’t we ?

Honestly thoug I am more than half tempted to just put my fingers in my ears until next march because both sides are just going to come up with more and more desperate reasons to support their cause.

[Ed P]

As you said earlier — details, details details.

Politicians are known to be useless with detail, but unfortunately that is what Brexit is all about. Even simple details such as issuing carnets becomes a huge burden if the infrastructure to administer them no longer exists. Have you seen any urgent attempts to staff up shipping and forwarding agencies? (BTW in the past I worked closely with a couple of such companies and it is a non-trivial task involving a huge amount of detail and money in the form of bonds. Dropping back to GATT the preferred hard Brexit solution will involve mountains of paperwork and the tying up of large sums of money, it is NOT an easy answer!).

It is the complete absence of detail that has been one of my major complaints and concerns, even full-on Brexiters  such as ‘Offshore’ Mogg show very little grasp of the complexities of running an import/export business and irresponsibly duck any detailed questions with a ‘we are going to negotiate that concern away’. The simple answer of course is not to leave the EU, and the more complicated one is to back the softer Brexit that May has proposed. A hard Brexit is just about as dumb a solution as can be possibly imagined.

[Dave Rice]

I’m afraid Ed that Brexiteers will only listen when the shit is hitting the fan and even then they’ll say it isn’t their shit nor their fan.

[The Duke]

Just driven up from the south to zaragoza, and I must say, the Spanish economy seems to be looking much better than two years ago. There is building work everywhere unlike last time I was in Spain.

 

Ive not looked at any stats as I’ve had limited Internet, but I know 2 years ago under 30s employment was through the floor. I’d imagine it’s on the up now.

Also the digs I’m I’m now is huge, and I have almost 300 up and down. Which everyone is happy about. The fambo have gone out for tea, and I’m having a few bears way hung Madrid v juve.

Love zaragoza, a real hidden gem.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/07/council-of-europe-accepts-uk-compromise-on-prisoner-voting-rights

Just to prove that agreements can be reached have a read of the link above.

It only took 8 years for a single issue but they seem to have got there in the end.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Mind you it was a dumb a**e rulling by the ECHR that caused the problem in the first place.

[Optional]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

That

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

paied

Paid

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Spelling is not a high priotity around here Optional. As far as I know corrections are frowned upon.

[johnbarry]

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Cheers
John

[Author]

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