Brexit now = CETA +/-?

[Ed P]

I do not recognise any ‘Remainer’ half-truths. Poor predictions with respect to impact timing due to the vote and actually leaving being separated in time — yes. However, most of the finance house impacts have actually come to pass or are in train, as have some of the exchange rate impacts especially the euro/pound rates.The impacts on the service/agricultural sector of lack of labour is now causing actual problems. AFAIK nothing has gone the ‘wrong’ way on the Treasury’s predictions. But no doubt you can correct me.

On the Brexit side the lies and dissembling are slowly being exposed, but some have been concealed by the usual political chicanery (e.g. money for the Health Service — yes, but a recognition that a big budget deficit will happen, but not a word on tax increases as yet). I do not recollect any positives emerging so far. (I do not count a lower exchange rate and more expensive energy costs as ‘positive’, it just enabled us to hold our manufacturing head above water for a while longer., while making things more expensive)

I cannot see the mythical big productivity boost from Brexit coming in under ten years, as this will need both trade deals (where?) and investment(who?). Maybe Rees Mogg could show his faith by committing his family’s £100 million to UK investment rather than sticking it off-shore.  Now THAT would impress me!

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

So you dont like the idea of leaving the EU then Ed ?

 

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I read the European Councils post about “more Europe” yesterday and it just confirmed to me that we must get out with all speed.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Hang the concequencies, I do not want what they want and I voted against it in the only vote that matters.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

I read the European Councils post about “more Europe” yesterday and it just confirmed to me that we must get out with all speed.

I do not know what you read, but all I saw was a growing lack of commitment to ‘more Europe’ link

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

<p style=”text-align: left;”>Has anyone apart from me read the EU guidelines for negotiatons ?</p>
They state that that no deal can be done until we have actually left.

Even article 50 its self predicts a period of WTO rules until a new deal can be done.

[The Duke]

I’d favour more integration with EU. And scrap our own gov. They have hardly done anything good since we formed our fist navy and ruled the waves.

I don’t get the hate on more EU integration. Id rather be on the inside than the outside. The long term future needs more integration not less. Leaving the EU is a stupid idea.

I’d happily drop all out gov completely. They do f all anyway. All parties not just the current lot.

[Ed P]

The Duke wrote:

I’d favour more integration with EU. And scrap our own gov. They have hardly done anything good since we formed our fist navy and ruled the waves. I don’t get the hate on more EU integration. Id rather be on the inside than the outside. The long term future needs more integration not less. Leaving the EU is a stupid idea. I’d happily drop all out gov completely. They do f all anyway. All parties not just the current lot.

The only ones who gain from a weaker EU are rivals or potential enemies i.e.  Russia and the US. We would have been much better advised to work with EU partners in changing the rules from the inside. Now we are just going to get stuffed with rules and regulations without any say in the matter — totally stupid!

Leaving the EU is just as bad as Cornwall wanting to leave the UK, even though Cornwall probably has far more valid gripes with London-centric Government and lack of democratic control.

[The VFM Addict]

I can sympathise with Bob’s sentiment.   We are just treading the very same ground as pre the referendum.   All we have learnt conclusively is that if one has a Remainer as PM then Brexit negotiations will go bad, very bad.      The Italian Deputy Prime Minister, himself a former MEP, pretty much summed up what a foolish appeaser Theresa May has been – See here

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[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Hi Duke

More integration means we get to be told what we can and cant do by the French and Germans. We also get a massive bill for their best interests.

[Dave Rice]

What a load of twaddle EU facts behind the claims: UK influence

[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

What a load of twaddle EU facts behind the claims: UK influence

Are you disagreeing with with all of Full Fact’s reports/studies or just the one you link to, Dave?

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[The VFM Addict]

I wonder if May has seen today’s YouGov Survey. The writing is on the wall yet again, revealing that Immigration Control is still a HUGE issue. Folks rarely voice it up front because of fear of being called racist. But polls show it.

If May fails to retake FULL control of immigration in whatever deal she eventually agrees then the Tories will be slaughtered at the next GE. There is no question whatsoever about that. Like it or not polls have shown that the only Tory with any chance of beating Corbyn is BoJo.   Gove, Javid and Hunt have been shown in polls to fall far behind Corbyn.

Paradoxically, although I am a staunch Brexiteer, I do not agree with the sentiments of either of the two paragraphs above although I acknowledge the reality of them.   I am very pro-immigration albeit with a level playing field that gives non-EU citizens equal opportunity with EU citizens.  My reason for leaving was always identical to that of Tony Benn; which was that the EU is inherently non-democratic.   Such is surely so given that the EU (the institution not the 27 other member states) is committed to ensuring we don’t get a good deal for fear other member states may leave.  Give that some thought.  Is that not the ‘institution’ putting its needs and desires first before those of its individual members’ right of self-determination?

As regards BoJo, I am not convinced that he is generally the ideal Tory Leader.  But I do acknowledge the fact that he is the only Tory with realistic prospect of beating Corbyn.   He would drive for a true Brexit rather than Brino.   Therefore he may well be the right man for the moment.  In this respect (although only in that respect) he might indeed be somewhat like his hero Churchill in that he will get the current job done only to be booted out (as was WC in 1946) after the battles were won.  I spoke to two Tory activists last night who also hold this view and tell me it is pretty much the growing consensus among party members.   They’ll fight for BoJo because he has a chance of winning but have little appetite for fighting for any of those who have pledged allegiance to what they see as the Chequers Sell-Out.   Gove’s currency in particular is nose-diving with the party grassroots.

One of those local association members said not to rule out an outsider.   She told me that if Penny Mordaunt abandon’s May fairly soon she might well become Tory leader.   She is liked both by Tory MP’s and by grassroot Tories.  This being so she could become one of the final two candidates that the Tory MPs put to the party.  Carrying little past baggage Penny could well beat BoJo or anyone else she was up against.  I wasn’t so sure.  But the more I think about it today the more I realise that it could indeed happen.  I think I’ll check out the betting odds because she could be a very good outside bet if one gets one’s money on early enough.

EDIT – 33/1.  Had to be worth a small punt.   £20 on instantly.

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[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Twaddle Dave ?

Have a look at the European council foreign relations website. That is also where I got the more europe bit Ed.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

More Europe is very much like the French idea of spending their way out of dept. Just digging a bigger hole.

[The Duke]

It’s not a bill, it’s a contribution.and a fair one at that. Also I see no issue in being ‘told what to do’ by the EU. I current get told by Westminster, and they are no better, So I don’t see the issue. I have nothing against the Germans or the french. it would be nice if we just dropped the nation names and just became the US of E. Wouldn’t make a slight bit of difference to me. And would mean my kids and their children  will probably have more options available  to them in the future.

I don’t see what is so good about the uk, and why we need to keep it separate from the rest of our European brothers. Same with Americans, asians  Africans and austrilasians.we are all humans, and we all want the best for our futures. So we should be coming together more, not moving apart, and becoming more right leaning. It’s not healthy.

As a relatively wealthy nation we should be paying more into the system to help the less fortunate nations. Rising tide and all that….

More integration is what is needed, not less.

I’d like an overhaul of the EU structure. Simply it, that only The PM of each nation state, represented there nation in the EU house. And each nation had equal say and power. But that isn’t likely to happen, but doesn’t mean I’d want to leave because of that.

Id scrap all the EMPs and just have heads of each state making up the European Parliament. Our own parliament would basically be a gathering point for our local mps to voice matters to Thr PM who would take them to the main Euro parliment. Drop the house of loads, and thin out Westminster completely. We don’t beef so many mps, and council reps. All feeding of The gravy train.

Also whole I’m at it, scrap career politicians completely. Make it a 10 year job, from say 55 to 65. Real people with real world experiences. Get rid of the Eaton lot that study politics  Then walk into Westminster. All they are is benefit grabbers. Worse, most are benefit cheats. Then they have the gaul to to slash benefits for those that need them. You couldn’t make it up. So yea, scrap them all, and leat just follow the EU.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

• Yep the EU guide to negotiations are just a guide. As usual with them though they are set in stone.
• And yes I do see a reason why we do NOT  want a franco german alliance deciding our future.

[Ed P]

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

Twaddle Dave ? Have a look at the European council foreign relations website. That is also where I got the more europe bit Ed.

If you had bothered to inspect the link I used you would have seen

https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_more_europe_core_four

Maybe you are right about May and what might have happened but she was the choice of the Conservative Party. If she had not been virtually forced by these same people to hold an election then maybe she would not be held to ransome by the DUP.

Maybe — but also maybe if BoJo had not dissembled on the economic impacts of Brexit the referendum might have gone the other way! I will not get into the immigration debate other than to say that I do know that there were a sizeable number of voters trying to stop a totally different kind of immigrant, and Merkel holds a lot of responsibility for Brexit.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Wheels-Of-Fire wrote:

Twaddle Dave ? Have a look at the European council foreign relations website. That is also where I got the more europe bit Ed.

If you had bothered to inspect the link I used you would have seen https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_more_europe_core_four Maybe you are right about May and what might have happened but she was the choice of the Conservative Party. If she had not been virtually forced by these same people to hold an election then maybe she would not be held to ransome by the DUP. Maybe — but also maybe if BoJo had not dissembled on the economic impacts of Brexit the referendum might have gone the other way! I will not get into the immigration debate other than to say that I do know that there were a sizeable number of voters trying to stop a totally different kind of immigrant, and Merkel holds a lot of responsibility for Brexit.

There in your last sentence you have it.    Germany and to a lesser degree France direct the EU.   Merkel is the one who drove through policies that were not in essence agreed with universally by other states re migration and allocation quotas.   One simply cannot hold that the EU is an organisation of equals and write the last sentence that you did.

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[Wheels-Of-Fire]

I always read your links Ed. One of these days they may not be from Guardian land.

[Author]

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