Brexit from the Other Side

[Bob Williams]

Ed P wrote:

In stating this, the immigration/free movement requirements of the EU are hugely complicating issues and it would not surprise me if in 17 months time nothing has been agreed and the country will have no other option but a hard Brexit. Whether this would trigger another referendum is going to be a very different and difficult political decision for that time. I know someone will cry foul, but it is not unknown for a referendum within a country to be reversed. The Irish have already done exactly this over an EU issue.

I wish, Ed. I wish…

But in that situation, I can see streets full of Brexit protesters and social media full of abusive messages. Then certain politicians on both sides of the matter, preparing new lies and fears. The real question is, given a new Referendum, would the EU be interested in taking us back? My German friends say that they definitely would, they don’t want us to leave, but they are fed up with our politicians and our media. (Join the club, mein liebe freunden)

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Jason]

It was established many months ago that nothing is cast in stone until the deadline passes (and the deadline could be extended). Until that point, the rules allow us simply to say, “We’ve changed out minds.” Macron has also said the door remains open.

This was the point behind the Lib Dems’ push for a referendum on the final deal. We would have got the choice to say “yes” or “no” to whatever deal had been wrung out. If the deal were terrible, we could have voted “no”, and the default position from there would have been to scrap the whole thing. Seemed like a fine idea to me, but of course the press and hard-right nutcases were all over it. Never stood a chance.

“Out” seems to mean a hundred different things to a hundred different people. The details and the ramifications were not clear at all, regardless of the simplicity of the initial question. The only reason certain elements don’t want a referendum on the final deal — it’s ignoring the “will of the people” and all that guff — is because they know full well that the final deal and the ramifications will probably not be what many Leave voters envisioned and there’d be a very real chance of rejection. It’s that, and not a second vote, that’s against the notion of democracy.

I have little doubt that the deal will be terrible, that we’ll go through with it, and that not soon after most people will be moaning.

[Spedley]

I agree on that.  The final deal WILL be terrible, there is no other reason for May to be pushing so hard for a no deal.
It would be foolish to side with the 52% and threaten the other 48% with worst case, you are highly likely to lose.
The Torys will cling to power at all costs until Brexit is done – their immediate goal, not the public’s goal.

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[The Duke]

I blame me, for wishing the Scott’s would vote to leave. Just to see what mess would follow.

Careful what you wish for hey. It’s like watching a car crash in slow-motion. From the inside!

[Ed P]

It does not require many Tory old pharts to die to completely change the balance of power. Now that ‘youth’ has discovered its power the whole political scene could shift quite markedly. Eighteen months is a long time and there were 23 politicians over 70 (not sure after the election what the number is now)

[Jason]

The original choice was along the lines of, “Would you like a holiday, or would you like to stay at home?” Most people would clearly have voted for the holiday, yet they didn’t know what holiday would be on offer. What if the holiday turned out to be a month in Ethiopia, living in a village with no amenities, with all visitors expected to graft for 16 hours a day to earn the evening meal of beans and rice?

The argument seems to be that the will of people means that you’d have to go — it’s what you voted for. That’s democracy. I think it would be perfectly reasonable and also democratic to then ask, “This is the best holiday we’ve managed to get a deal on. Would you still like to go, or have you changed your mind?”

In a democracy, we do get to change our minds. That’s what general elections, by-elections, and council elections are for. If what you voted for isn’t working out or you don’t like the government’s current direction, you fairly soon get the chance to oust the incumbents and change “sides”.  Hardliners now seem to be saying, “There can be no debate on the matter. The discussion is closed. The people have voted. The decision is for ever, with no further questions or choices.”

If a further choice is given and the vote is still Leave, fair enough. The people have been given the chance to make an *informed* decision, with the facts, or many of them, in front of them. If the conclusion is the same, fine. But I think many people, when looking at the situation dispassionately, would admit that there’s a possibility that a fair proportion of people are having second thoughts, now that the mud is clearing. A swing of just 1.9% would see an even 50/50 split. Is it not undemocratic to fail to acknowledge all this and ask the people for their opinion in another eighteen months’ time?

[Bob Williams]

I see an inverted parallel with the sudden U-Turn by Nicola Sturgeon, as she decides not to carry on pushing for another Referendum on Scottish Independence. According to my gt-nephew, (a proud Scot born and bred, works in the Oil Supply industry) there is a big change of heart and opinion amongst friends and businesses north of the Border. Many former YES voters of his acquaintance, have changed their minds. I believe this is also happening in England and Wales, regarding Brexit.

All of this mess was of course caused by the voices in Cameron’s head, after UKIP *appeared to be threatening the Tory vote. The Tory government is now a runaway train and the buffers do not look to be capable of absorbing the impact.

 * Hmmmm – UKIP – whatever happened to that organisation?

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

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