Brexit from the Other Side

[Dave Rice]

No, I’m honestly not offended by anything you’ve said. You have nothing to apologize for. I respect your view even if you are wrong ?

But you’re echoing what I’m hearing a lot from the Brexiteers who get on TV. As far as I am concerned it’s the hard liners who have hijacked the whole process and are now using any means to justify their continuing crusade even if it means beggaring the country in their experiment. Note that I don’t think that this is what you are doing.

I just find this whole “buccaneering Britain” mantra totally unrealistic in today’s world. It seems we will have an impossible struggle just to get where we were, the savings from not paying our subs will be dwarfed by the shrinkage of the economy and immigration won’t reduce because the people are needed. There have already been warnings from agriculture (personally I don’t give a sh1t for Starbucks baristas) and the NHS.

I saw some BBC figures that the number of migrants needed in West Country agriculture alone would top the 100,000 target for the whole country. The days of the good old cockneys spending their holidays hop picking are as long gone as the hops are. I was watching a River Cottage from 1997 and all the Dorset fruit pickers came from Eastern Europe back then. The locals see these jobs as well beneath them and unemployment is low any way. The Tories must know this, so why do they persist in saying it’s achievable?

I heard an amazing fact on the last leg last night. 9 out of 10 of the poorest areas in northern Europe are in the UK. Having traveled in the low countries in the last 2 years I can well believe it. I don’t see any Brexit plan that’s doing a damn thing about it. The amount of money the EU has poured into Cornwall has been amazing, but those turkeys did vote for Christmas. Mind you the Cornish see Janners from Plymouth as foreigners. My aunt is scared stiff of Muslim terrorists but I don’t think she’s ever even seen a Muslim of any description. The DPD driver is Rumanian though. Thin end of the wedge.

[Bob Williams]

BL, I have the same respect for your opinions and beliefs as you have for mine. I may disagree with you on some things, but what I honestly believe is that old saying that should be the glue that holds a democracy together:

I may disagree with your words, but I would fight to the death for your right to speak them. I believe that, always have, always will.

My decision to vote for remaining in the EU, came only after a long period of thinking about it. I based it upon what I thought was right for the young people of this country, specifically my grandchildren and their friends, but covering all their generation. They will have to live with the results of all the decisions we make, after all. Including all election votes, and I believe that TM is a dead woman walking, whilst Jeremy Corbyn is currently the hero of a large majority of young British people right now. I think that the DUP are not enough to save the Tories, and there will soon be another election. All it will take, is a change of heart by Sinn Fein MP’s, who have been elected but will not sit in Parliament to swear obedience, etc, to the Queen. If something like that happens, and in order to stymie the Loyalists, Gerry Adams may well bring that about, I believe you will get your Labour government. Which would have had my granddad smiling, as he was a founder member of the Independent Labour Party at the turn of the 19th Century. And my much-missed big bro, who was a Labour Councillor, later as a result of the Miners Strike, Independent Labour.

You are absolutely right to believe that a democratic vote should be respected and upheld. My point is that the pressures brought to bear upon the British voters in the Referendum, were unfair, possibly illegal, certainly immoral. In a climate of hysterical, untrue, often bizarre pronouncements from both sides, how could we have hoped to arrive at a sensible decision? There were all the many far Right organisations posturing in the media and FB, waving Union Flags and making demented, fascist pronouncements about the EU. There was the far Left doing the same, with the usual divided Lefty habit of taking both sides at once. Then there were the major political Talking Heads, making statements they knew were untrue, for which they are now paying the price.

It’s a bloody mess.

 

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Bob Williams]

I should have added, BL, that my opinion has no greater value than that of anyone else, my Army service is irrelevant. That’s democracy, your opinion and your views are your own and have equal value to every other citizen’s in the UK. Or at least, they should have equal value, although certain media and political figures may not agree with that aspect of democracy.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The Duke]

I always said the question was to complex for the (above) average person to comprehend. Also said I didn’t agree with the public being asked it. We already voted for the “right person(s)” to manage the country, it should be passed on to us.

As all it turned out to be is a publicity contest, more punch and Judy, it’s hard to make remain in sexy, but it’s alot easier for leave groups with no power, what so ever, to make up great lies that they know are tinder pot issues for alot of people.

There is still alot of twists and turns ahead, nothing will surprise me. Tbh, I lack intrest these days.

[Ed P]

Politically little will happen over Brexit until it becomes clear what a mess/success the negotiations are in.  At that point all bets are off – quite frankly the trade aspect is a no-brainer, the UK holds all the cards. The really BIG problems are the financial sectors which are heavily biased to the UK and account for around £60Bn of the country’s income ~8% of GDP. If Davis screws that bit up woe betide us all.

[Bob Williams]

It appears that the first blows are landing in the financial sector ED:     https://tinyurl.com/y7r7acp7

RBS is still 73% owned by the taxpayer, but considering the past incompetence and abysmal record of the bank, taxpayers are not  likely to see much in the way of percentage on the sums spent to keep the bank afloat. I may not know much about finance, but I can speculate about what will be lost, as opposed to the cost of letting RBS sink at the time, and reimbursing account holders from public funds. The sheer size of the RBS debt to the taxpayer, is enough to boggle the mind:     https://tinyurl.com/yaomuwkl

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[blacklion1725]

Not sure that’s related Bob, if it was EU related wouldn’t they pick another EU base? Also the off-shoring to India has been a huge trend in all sectors way before Brexit was even a twinkle in the eye. HSBC for example (the missus has an account with them) have a call centre in India while mine (First Direct – HSBC subsidiary) are in Scotland. Difference in service level chalk and cheese – First direct superb, her experience with HSBC is horrific.

But as I say, can’t see how this is EU related, just routine (theoretical) cost-cutting…..which rarely ends well for anyone from my experience.

[Bob Williams]

Sure you’re right BL, it just seems a bit sus to me atm. I bank with TSB, which is now wholly owned by Sabadell, a Catalan Spanish bank. In January this year, TSB broke away from its last ties with Lloyds by setting up its own IT systems.

https://tinyurl.com/yba934k6

If I have any problems that cannot be solved online (rare, only happened twice) I can take a short trip into town and speak to a human being. It’s the only bank I have ever used which has the Manager greeting customers at the door. The fact that it’s owned by an EU bank does not worry me at all: Sabadell say that the UK leaving the EU may actually give them an advantage. I’m a bit surprised by that one, but time will tell.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[blacklion1725]

Yeah all up in the air and a guessing game at the moment for sure. Without derailing the thread offshoring has broadly been a nightmare experience where I have come across it…notable exception being Expedia where the (offshore) experience has been nothing but positive.

Instinct is we will win some and lose some, but like everyone else I’m guessing till all this comes out in the wash.

[The Duke]

Always though HSBC was a Chinese bank, until I just looked, and found out it’s British, or at least, not as Chinese as I first thought.

Ether way, I’d expect a multinational to have its call centres in the cheapest locations.

Also never knew TSB has gone all Spanish. I would expect their CS to go overseas withing the first 18/24 months. Even though for years the TSB was marked ed on the “local” bank. Now its sold, noting past said means much.

[Bob Williams]

Steve, TSB is much better than it was under Lloyds. Sabadell decided they wanted an “ethical” bank for ordinary working people and have left the whole UK management structure as it was when TSB first became independent and returned to its roots. Take a look at this:

https://tinyurl.com/y7848jsl

We get 3% on the first £1,500 in our current account and then transfer £250 a month into a Monthly Saver, which pays 2%. We get 1% cashback on the first £500 with the contactless credit card. Making 20 debit card payments a month, gives £5 cashback. All we have to do is pay at least £500 a month into our current account, use online paperless banking. I don’t know another bank that gives all that: some give a “Reward” lump sum, £100 to £150, but if I total up all the advantages with TSB, I get more than that – quite a bit more. If they decide after a period of time to change some or all of that, well, it’s easy to switch nowadays. But I don’t think they will, they are making a big thing out of being a “People’s Bank.”

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

I get more than that from my Santander 1-2-3 because as well as all the cash backs (1%, 2% or 3% depending on type*) the 1.5% interest is on balances up to £20k.

*1% on water and council tax bills, 2% on gas and electricity bills, 3% on mobile and home phone bills, broadband and paid for TV packages.

Not the slightest bit worried about it being owned by a Spanish company, or the water and electricity being owned by the French, or that a French company deliver most of my parcels (DPD was originally Deutscher Paketdienst until 2008, now owned by Geopost a subsidiary of La Poste).

What we need to be worried about are supply chain businesses where parts fly around the EU and get assembled somewhere It’s not just the tariffs but all the paperwork.  Airbus are very big locally and have already said, no customs union and / or WTO, no work on new aircraft. They cannot afford the hit on increased costs in a competitive market vs Boeing. I believe the (all foreign owned) car industry is making the same noises.

My Brexit voting mate thought Airbus were a British company part owned by BAE and kept telling me that these things would never happen, the shareholders would never let manufacturing leave Britain. Now he’s actually read the plate on the gate he’s realised just what a misconception he’s been under. I don’t think he is alone. People just don’t grasp just how much of what we thought of as British isn’t and how intertwined we are with Europe.

[Spedley]

Ed P wrote:

… quite frankly the trade aspect is a no-brainer, the UK holds all the cards.

EH? how’d you figure that, we are screwed?

 

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[Ed P]

Spedley wrote:

Ed P wrote:

… quite frankly the trade aspect is a no-brainer, the UK holds all the cards.

EH? how’d you figure that, we are screwed?

Sorry I was perhaps too loose in using the term ‘trade’. I have always thought of ‘trade’ as synonymous with Manufactured Goods. I should have been more explicit.

The EU exports far more manufacturing goods to the UK than the UK does to the EU. Hence a no-brainer that this part should be relatively easy to negotiate. The problem comes with financial services where the converse holds true. The danger lies if Davis does not proceed on Financial Services first. He must not seek a quick win by agreeing manufactured goods before  getting broad agreement on Financial Services.

[Spedley]

In all respect, I think you have been misinformed Ed P.

The UK does about 55% of trades outside the EU and 45% inside.  This is also pretty much true of the EU – just over 50% of their trades are outside Europe.
HOWEVER, only 6% of the actual trade in Europe is with the UK (unlike Germany which has 22% of the EU trade) !

That means that we depend on the EU for nearly half of everything and yet the EU uses us for just 3%.  It’s a no brainer, we can’t live without them but they can live without us.

Data from here …

Extra EU Trade: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Extra-EU_trade_in_goods
Intra EU Trade: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_-_recent_trends

 

 

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[Dave Rice]

Trade has never over worried me but I think the “they need us more than we need them” is total bollocks for UK consumption. The Europeans are quite likely to take some pain as the price for their holding their ideals, especially the Germans. I think it very likely there will be a sensible trade deal on offer but the hard line Brexit nutters will reject it.

It’s leaving the customs union that I believe will do for us, but this is still all trade related. What about everything else?

[Ed P]

To be honest Spedley I could not understand your numbers or methodology. I always find that using percentages with different huge divisors can lead to all sorts of weird interpretations and I would have been much happier just to see euro currency numbers.

Instead I just used the KISS principle and only looked at the sterling values of UK/EU imports and exports from the Office of National Statistics.

These roughly show:

Trade Goods Imports from EU               (approx) £22Bn — link

Trade Goods Exports from UK to EU   (approx) £14Bn — link

Financial are roughly £22Bn of exports, and £3Bn of imports  — link

I’m pretty sure that this is the correct way of looking at things as these are the sorts of numbers that the fact-checking group published. link

 

 

[Spedley]

I don’t see how any of those figures are usefull?
If I sell £22 of veg a day to my local corner shop I and buy £14 worth of stuff from them it doesn’t tell me anything about how much the shop depends in my trade.

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[Bob Williams]

There are those who do not see, those who cannot see, and those who will not see. Figures and statistics mean different things to those who wish them to reflect their own POV and opinion, and those who actually know what they mean.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Spedley wrote:

I don’t see how any of those figures are usefull? If I sell £22 of veg a day to my local corner shop I and buy £14 worth of stuff from them it doesn’t tell me anything about how much the shop depends in my trade.

In reality you have to look at who is in your corner and who is not. To most of the 27 the balance of trade means very little, they will just be fighting for their own ‘pork-barrels’. The elephant in the corner is Germany. As your percentages point out they account for most of the EU’s trade and they also have a huge BOT surplus with the UK. As they control the EU’s purse-strings they will not want to lose their trade advantage and the rest of the EU ex perhaps France will be influenced by Germany’s attitude.  Hence I believe the pure trade aspects would have been relatively easy to negotiate were it not for for the very important Financial sector.

In stating this, the immigration/free movement requirements of the EU are hugely complicating issues and it would not surprise me if in 17 months time nothing has been agreed and the country will have no other option but a hard Brexit. Whether this would trigger another referendum is going to be a very different and difficult political decision for that time.

I know someone will cry foul, but it is not unknown for a referendum within a country to be reversed. The Irish have already done exactly this over an EU issue.

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