Brexit from the Other Side

[Ed P]

As we have such a ‘managed’ press and TV news, I thought it would be of interest to occasionally post views from the EU point of view.

This German view basically says it is ‘hard’ Brexit or nothing. Their consensus is that Davis has not got a hope of negotiating anything, and the probability of a lose-lose outcome is very high.

 

[blacklion1725]

The Germans are right – and “leave” or “remain in” the EU is what the referendum asked – no “soft Brexit” third option so there isn’t a mandate to try and negotiate one.

It should be relatively straightforward – but of course whoever is in charge when the heavy lifting starts will almost certainly **** it up.

• timed reduction over time of our contribution down to zero
• withdrawal from the European Parliament and laws
• agree the successor to Free Movement including which EU citizens remain/leave and a policy for future migration, and travel between EU and Britain
• Reciprocal policy for ex-pat Brits in EU countries
• Discuss and implement trade details (ideally)

An over-simplification I know but the ultimate destination is a status alongside the majority of the worlds countries (approx 150) who exist outside the EU but still manage to travel there and trade with them, without all the baggage. We are entangled in the EU so it can’t be like flicking a switch, but look at a comparable non-EU country and say “that’s what we aim to get to in 5/10/whatever years”.

I just hope whatever party is in power puts up a candidate to fight this country’s corner……a stretch I know.

[Anonymous]

Brexit seems to be nothing but an Ariston

[Ed P]

“The Germans are right – and “leave” or “remain in” the EU is what the referendum asked – no “soft Brexit” third option so there isn’t a mandate to try and negotiate on”

Arguable, the pro-Brexit side made great play of their ability to negotiate a great deal with the EU and poured scorn on the opposing view.

In reality I do not think the majority of people had a clue what they were really voting for. I do know that a sizable portion in Manchester thought they were voting to kick out recent non-EU  immigrants.

[blacklion1725]

Not talking about the lobbying Ed – the ballot paper was:

• Remain in the European Union
• Leave the European Union

Both sides told lies and half-truths which I’m sure influenced votes both ways, and you had unlikely alliances like both mainstream Tory and Labour campaigning for “Remain” while  both UKIP and the Socialist Workers Party campaigned for “Leave”. Unlikely bedfellows all round.

This was a single issue referendum however and the voting paper was extremely simple and unambiguous…..and that is the only mandate they have….LEAVE….not half-leave or leave “a bit” – just LEAVE.

[The Duke]

I thought a number of EU of officials said, there is exit or, stay under new rule rules.

So I’d say that was more like “hard brexit or less than nothing” defo lose lose.

Now I just want it over, whichever way, the quicker it’s finished the quicker we can move on. I still think it won’t happen.

What will happen to doggy passports? Will our uk dogs have to pay the price? One should call the RSPCA.

[Dave Rice]

What would you call a comparable non EU country?

There are none I know of that make a great deal of their wealth by processing the financial transactions of the EU, which we won’t be able to do.

There are none involved in the EU wide supply chain businesses like Airbus or the car manufacturers.

These other countries do have baggage when dealing with the EU. They are called customs paperwork, tariffs and visas.

We already have trading deals with all the major nations through the EU. How will negotiating our own as a much smaller player be better?

It’s all a fantasy world in the heads of the like of Liam Fox. FFS they can’t even negotiate a deal with the DUP. TM hasn’t worked out that she has to negotiate with the negotiator and not a bunch of people over dinner!

[blacklion1725]

I mean any democracy outside the current EU. And my point isn’t really about whether we do or don’t should or shouldn’t (leave), or how we do it. The only mandate from the referendum was to “leave the EU” and that is what they must do if they want to pretend there is any semblance of democracy in our country.

I know those pro-leave and pro-remain won’t be reconciled – main point is that I agree with the Germans (not often I have typed that) – whether it is lose/lose for Britain and/or the EU is up for debate – but  for the first time in my voting lifetime – a single-issue decision has been made by the UK voters. The UK government (which may well be Labour by the time this starts to bite) have to abide by. If not then we cannot pretend to be a democracy.

Dave you think Brexit will be bad, I think it will be good, truth is we don’t know, but again to reiterate – we voted to leave on a very clear and simple choice of two options, not some fuzzy in-between. Time to get on with it.

[Jason]

I’m going to say only one thing about this.

I used to be very active on Facebook. After the vote, I was even more active, and very vocal. I voted Remain. Several people unfriended me, and relationships with several old friends became very strained. Indeed, I stopped being included in group nights out.

In recent times, bridges have been mostly mended. One of the people in the group, who was perhaps the most put out by my outspoken views, has now gone from “Out, out, out!” to “I blame Cameron. We should never have been given a vote in the first place. No-one knew what they were voting for.” He’s right. It’s clear that he now has a very different perspective of Brexit from what he had a year ago. It’s not what he thought it would be. He went so far as to say he wished there’d been no vote and that the issue hadn’t been raised and that we’d all been left to continue as before without knowing any different.

That’s a considerable change of view. I consider this chap to be salt of the earth. The voice of a large part of the population. Is his change of heart a singular event? It’s impossible to believe it is. It’s much more likely that his viewpoint is fairly typical. I admire this guy greatly for basically admitting he was mistaken. He’s seen the fantasy for what it was and isn’t ashamed to say so.

(I haven’t been on Facebook since last year. I can’t say I miss it.)

[blacklion1725]

Hmm…people didn’t know what they were voting for? maybe some didn’t, but I think that cuts both ways. I certainly knew that this was a once only chance to get out and took it. The so-called concessions that we (UK) got from the EU pre-referendum was very clearly stated as a one off by Brussels and that had we voted to stay there was only more integration coming.

I don’t know a soul who voted “leave” who has a different opinion (aside from why are we hanging about).

Point is though – we DID VOTE – and we voted on a very simple question to LEAVE – fully understand if you don’t like it  – but hate the post-vote propaganda about ignorant voting – especially as the post-remain implications are ignored – it would most certainly not have been a status-quo.

Anyway over and out on this from me too – the point is we voted – we decided – lets for once do something that the people voted for and that politicians hopefully can’t backtrack on.

[BL withdraws from the discussion as he is listening to the Pretenders at Glastonbury on iPlayer – who are surprisingly still very good – respect to Ms Hynde]

[Spedley]

It was not a very simple question, in fact the whole thing was a sham.  The NHS was nothing to do with the vote and yet many voted for £350 Million per week for the NHS budget.  Migrants are nothing to do with the vote; 170,000 non-EU, non-asylum seakers were let into the country last year, every single one could have been refused.
Taking back Control still has no meaning, we don’t know what we want back from who.
In that 52/48 split there was so much rubbish around that the result was not in any way a clear iNdication of the country’s wishes.

It is an absolute disgrace and has no business being blindly followed to potential destruction.

i7 4790s / 8GB / 480GB SSD / GTX 980 / 34" UltraWide : i3 4170 / 8GB / 480GB SSD / GTX 770 / 24" Samsung : i3 4130 / 8GB / 500GB Spinner / GTX 1050 / 23" Acer : Q9550 / 8GB / 1TB Spinner / GTX 580 / 22" Acer : i7 720QM / 8GB / 1TB+2TB+500GB Spinners (server) : i5 4570 / 8GB / 60GB SSD / 1TB / GeForce 210 / 22" Dell It's getting warm in here!

[blacklion1725]

Oh bugger I know I said I wouldn’t…….yes the question was spectacularly simple – the agendas maybe not so but that is a decision for each individual – whose opinion should be respected. The arguments about the NHS and immigration are subjective and unless you ask every voter why they voted leave/remain you will never know. If you think you know better than other voters I would call that patronising.

Sorry you don’t like the outcome – democracy can do that – just like Theresa May thinking she can take us all for mugs  calling an early election – sometimes you get caught out.

People have never been given a vote about asylum or the staggering and unsustainable levels of non-EU immigration – which has actually got worse under the Tories – but we did get a vote about the EU – and it was taken. Maybe a protest vote for some, maybe a reasoned decision by others (like me I hope). Many remain voters including my Mum were scared in to it by all sorts of doom-mongers who had no better idea than you or me as to what might happen

One thing you can’t say is the question wasn’t simple: Leave/Remain – it certainly was and the country spoke. If you don’t like it hard lines, the suggestion that one side was more influenced than the other is totally subjective and (in my opinion and mine only) media supported.

Tough sh*t Cameron, May, Corbyn, whoever – we voted LEAVE – get over yourselves – respect the public decision – get on with it.

[Bob Williams]

It is rare for me to completely agree with every single word of a post here, but that is what happened after reading Jason’s last Reply.

A lot of the things Jason describes, happened to me on FB, which I use mostly to keep in contact with my far-flung relatives. Most of them disagreed with my Remain stance, which I had agonised over. To give you an idea about the effects of that vote: my missus and I voted on opposite sides, as did my son, but my daughter shared my views, whilst her partner voted Leave. IMO the vote was so close because the proponents of both sides lied, bent the facts, and misrepresented information. I believe that, on some level, the mass of the British public vaguely sensed that and that is why the vote was so close. Whether or not you believe that statement, the truth is that we are still being lied to. Politicians (again, on both sides of the vote) are now being reminded by the media, on film and in print, of statements they made, which are contrary to facts, information and statements they give today. Their reaction is along the lines of “… I have no recollection…”

Family members, as I say, mostly disagreed with my Remain stance. Some were violent in opposition to my views, two used obscene language on FB, in the mistaken impression that it proved their point. My close family here have all agreed to settle our differences, but there are nephews and nieces that I have lost contact with and have actually blocked me on FB, a tactic which does not bother me, but does sadden me. Old friends who disagreed, have either stayed in contact, or never stopped being friends. What cheered me was the knowledge that 3 of our 4 grandchildren all supported my Remain vote. Two of them were of voting age at the time, the 3rd has since become 18 and states that he does not want to see another Referendum, but would vote Remain. I had no influence upon them and did not advise them before they voted, but I voted Remain because I believed it would be the best outcome for their futures.

The result of Brexit will take time to filter through, but I believe that every single Leave voter will regret their vote, when the hard times hit the UK. As they will, make no mistake. If there is some political chicanery which results in another referendum, I firmly believe that will result in a bigger majority voting to stay in the EU. Young voters are beginning to realise that they have a weapon to achieve this and they will turn out in large numbers to make their votes count for their futures. Some of them already look upon my generation as their betrayers.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Dave Rice]

Yes the question was spectacularly simple. But tell me, are Norway and Switzerland members of the EU? They are not but they are members of EFTA. Leaving the EU does not necessarily mean throwing the baby out with the bath water.

And before we have anything about free movement, EU courts etc. lets remember the question was spectacularly simple and that is the problem. The vote did not ask if you wanted to end free movement or bring back UK sovereignty (which was never lost) or any of the other things that are being touted, those views are being cited as what the country voted for with no proof whatsoever. Every one of these “promises” was denied by one of the leave factions within days because they personally hadn’t made them.

Boris Johnson: UK will ‘still have access to single market’ despite Brexit 26/6/2016

Nigel Farage backtracks on Leave campaign’s ‘£350m for the NHS’ pledge hours after result 24/6/2016

Tory Brexiter Daniel Hannan: Leave campaign never promised “radical decline” in immigration 25/6/2016

[blacklion1725]

Totally respect your opinion Bob while also totally disagreeing with it. Your’s if anything (after what you have chipped in for our country) should be worth more than mine…..you could also argue that young people (and at 18 I was a ****ing idiot) should not have an equal influence until they make some sort of contribution to society….but that’s a separate argument about voting age. My family was split 50/50 on leave/remain.

In any case – do we respect democracy or do we ignore it? Tony Blair got re-elected promising a referendum on the EU constitution – then when (if memory serves) Denmark voted against he said “no point” and then denied us our referendum, which was mirrored across Europe and lead to the un-voted but almost identical EU Treaty which is why we have all this mess in the first place……back-door internationalism.

I hate where this argument is going – anyone is entitled to think the outcome of the leave/remain vote was the wrong decision , but this creeping pressure to overturn or dilute the only purely democratic decision in this county in two generations (at least) I find disgusting.

We never voted to join anything at all (we joined the EEC without a vote), there was a vote to “remain in a trading block” (the EEC) and everything since is basically undemocratic, constitutional change by the back door (EEC-> EC->EU).

It stinks and we voted to get out of it….that really is the bottom line…..if it goes south then that’s on the “leave” voters same as Blair’s legacy, or Cameron’s is on those to elected them.

Genuinely staggered that that people are even suggesting we should ignore the results of a yes/no referendum in a supposedly democratic western democracy.

[Dave Rice]

Since the result have you heard me say we shouldn’t leave? I’ll tell you know you haven’t. That was the democratic vote. You’ll have heard me regret the result, but not deny it.

It’s now about how we leave. You may view EFTA as not leaving, but by the terms of the vote it is leaving as we will not be in the EU. So a range of options meets that democratic decision so it is not simple, not simple at all.

If only the hardline Brexiteers could compromise they could have an awful lot of their cake and eat it. But no it seems they are determined to continue the divisions in the nation until their own view is met.

[blacklion1725]

Never suggested you did Dave – two (not yours) posts on this thread suggest or imply that leave voters didn’t know what hey were voting for and were misled.

On your other point (EFTA) if that comes with “free movement” (AKA unlimited inward immigration) attached, then that is what I voted directly against, having seen the impact that has had locally on schools, housing, health and the rest.

[Dave Rice]

Yes you did and I can understand why even though I disagree with it (I think you’re blaming the wrong people). But you cannot transfer your wishes automatically to all the other leavers, in the same way that I cannot say all remainers would be happy with EFTA. My mate voted leave but he is quite happy with EU migrants (but not non EU).

There needs to be a gown up debate but the more idiotic side of the Tory party is holding sway. Maybe that should be were but the death throes are causing harm. TM asked for a mandate, she didn’t get one. That surely is democracy too? We are leaving but the direction we are leaving in has not been endorsed. I find it ironic that Redmond, Cash and Lord Snooty are claiming that Labour voters are on their side en masse too. FFS.

As I’ve said before Democracy is a farce any way when it’s first past the post. We also live in a Representative democracy, at least as far as the House of Commons is concerned. The House of Lords is another matter… That means we should not be having referendums at all. We have elected MPs to do that job for us, which is what they should have done this time. However as I’ve said, this was actually about trying to resolve the long standing Tory infighting on Europe, as was the last election, using us as the pawns in the game. Now the pawns have not done what was expected of them the White Queen is trying to hide the chess board from the Black King whilst her Bishops claim that black and white are actually on the same side even if they face different directions.

[blacklion1725]

Dave if I personally dug you out I can only apologise – but I can’t see where – but in any case if I offended then I apologise.

I totally agree about May and her election call – the woman is a walking disaster. For the record I am an inclined Labour voter, have voted for them, never Tory especially since Rosindell (google) who represents me now through no fault of my own

Any case Dave if I gave you the hump I apologise and lets live and let live – especially on the back of all the great info you have shared on here.

[Tippon]

blacklion1725 wrote:

On your other point (EFTA) if that comes with “free movement” (AKA unlimited inward immigration) attached, then that is what I voted directly against, having seen the impact that has had locally on schools, housing, health and the rest.

No, you didn’t, and this is the main problem with the referendum (which, incidentally, was advisory only).

blacklion1725 wrote:

…the ballot paper was:

• Remain in the European Union
• Leave the European Union…

The referendum was, as you said, do you want to leave or remain in the EU. Politicians, as well as various unsavoury groups, are now trying to tack on the bits that they personally want, like leaving the ECHR. Theresa May, and now the various right wing parties and groups, keeps shouting about a hard Brexit, with no explanation of what that apparently means, or how to go about it.

 

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