50% out of work-Who buys the goods?

Hillary Clinton was winding up for a toe toe with Russia. I’m not a Trump fan , but so glad she didn’t win, as that meant guaranteed war, one we couldn’t win, at least not no with major loss of life and economic failure (maybe that was the plan ).

Trump may lead us into a war, the road with Russia may be too far traveled now to turn back, I hope not . Trump is more likely to broker some deal with Putin , as Hillary and Putin hated each other.

Hopefully they will make some deal to stabalise sryia , let the us(EU) have a pipe line through sryia , but have a limit on its quota. That is would be the best outcome for all I think .

Trump troublingly seems to have issues with China, and constantly disrespecting them on American TV. He may of brokered many deals with chineese companies, bit they are a proud people, and they [chineese gov figures ] won’t be able to deal  with trump as they will loose face back home. And that is worth more than any money to the chineese.

So that worries me. They are a quiet nation (reletivly ) but I stone of we poke them Russia will look like pussy cats . Back on the 90s, northen Ireland was ending , USSR dead , there wasn’t any real issues in the middle East , and all eyes then was on china, and then the message we got was , it isn’t winnable.

Now that was 20 years ago, they have turned into a power house since then and we scaled down and are less funeded. So I hope Trump doesn’t piss them off. Or I hope he leaves. Nato, and we won’t need to follow him in to ‘wherever ‘.

We should just build lots of nukes , and scale the armed forces down , into a coast guard set up , and stop interfering in others issues.

We go into these places saying it’s for humanitarian reasons. A few hondred years ago we was just as brutal , let them evolve naturally. Yes it’s sad now for “the people”, but I don’t see how dropping bombs on them is making life better .  At least before your shitty life had a roof. Good job it doesn’t rain out there.

On my public service , one of the rolls could be like the guarding the palace, but basically shoulders stand 10 meters away from each other encircling the UK , fill boaerder coverage .

Genius, full employment and 100% boarder coverage  :wacko:

When two teams meet on the pitch to play football, they follow a set of rules. When ISIS meet on the battlefield, they don’t follow any rules.

Until the rest of the world accept this war won’t be won fighting fair, fighting by our moral compass and rules, this war won’t be won.  This is why Asad now controls Syria, why ISIS continue to wreak havoc in Europe and why Trump, Putin, Farage are now more popular than ever.  They oppose the system that would keep us enslaved.  To quote a well know TV Drama:
“The only hope you have is to accept the fact that you’re already dead. The sooner you accept that, the sooner you’ll be able to function as a soldier is supposed to function: without mercy, without compassion, without remorse. All war depends upon it.”

This is where the world needs to be with ISIS and Syria

Malcolm wrote:

AI is interesting in that the intelligentsia buy in to the concept, but being members of the intelligentsia, their feet are so far off the ground, they are incapable of carrying out even the most basic reality check. Some reality checks:-

1. AI costs big time
2. Creating a fully autonomous adaptable functioning intelligent entity was mastered by the human race generations ago, they’re called human beings
3. Only repetitive tasks fall to AI and given the changes in products output the AI costs can’t compete with the existing entities in point 2.
4. Adoption of AI is therefore likely to lead to lower growth as innovation would have to be stifled in order to pay back the AI costs.

Malcolm, I pretty much agree with you. though humans are very adaptable to many different circumstances, they do have some failings. They get bored and do loose focus. AI for the first period of time should focus on addressing that subset of needs and upon doing really boring menial tasks that frankly human beings are not so skilled at achieving, like in process checking, etc. In fact this is what ‘robots’ currently do.

The all seeing, all doing, multi adaptable, fully autonomous, AI robot only exists in Hollywood, I do not see that ending any time soon.

I thought this was talking of AI and the future, not ‘dumb’ configurable line  robots or GPS guoted tractors etc. Actually both have neen around now for a long time . The huge us farms set there harvesters up by plotting the feilds on a PC, a simple as tracing the feild outline, and pinpoining hazards like ditches, and pylons , etc and setting a start end point and the PC will plot the most efficient course , you just sent it too via WiFi or USB , then drove the machine to the feild and let it get on with the day’s work. Meet the machines at the end point , or predetermined fuel point .

In the EU AI trucks (artics)are rolling out all ready testing, it won’t be long before they are the norm, taxis won’t be far behind. Black cabs and any unionised taxis will be the first to go as uber wlare in prime position to ditch the drivers and push down the prices asap.

Again it will be the unions that actually kill the taxis . As while the cabnies will fighting to keep self drriving cabs out, uber will build up a fleat over night , prove it works, then cabs will be gone in a short few years.

Any thing unionised,will actually be worse for that sector/company.  I can’t see how with out law’s you can stop it, and then if law’s was made, would just mean them jobs(rolls)  would go AI in another country , out price the one with the laws and hit the economy.

I see a future of high taxes on the AI heavy industries, tax only has to be set at a rate just lower than wages, for that company (all compamies ) to support the over 50% and at that point growning non working class.

But the whole tax to support the nation deal , will also hurt profits, and push rolls to cheaper taxed nations . So if a country wants to me inward looking, it will need to have very high import duties to keep companies from leaving, but still then they would just keep as much manufacturing on the inside as needed. I think a more global aproch is needed for a future of AI, and population stability.

Also the term non working class at some point will have to stop being a dirty term.

It’s a super intresring question this one. With unlimited answers/opinions that few will ever agree on.

There is a definite mix up with autonomy and AI, I purposely picked GPS guided autonomy as it was mentioned a few post back, and I don’t count any of that as AI, but do think things like that do add to the overall compiters/robots taking jobs.  So yes comptealy diffent, but also I’d partridge of our future issues , as they get better. I’d count an auto tractor , in the same bracket as a self check out, or a robot arm on a shop floor, definitely not “smart” just a one trick pony, but still takes the job of a person.

AI is a totally different kettle of fish, and I think trully years off. However is an automated car/truck AI driven? I don’t think it is, but it’s faux AI, I has a alot of ore detemand parameters, and it makes decisions based upon the guy (team ) that written the answers to the parameters.

I do think that once more cars and trucks are ‘concerned’, along with all personal phones for pedestrians  , the  transport network will be one of the first AI driven infosructures.

Given most mid range cars now come with more sensors than apollo had, and also come with “conciegre” (stealth networked ) , I can see within ten years all older cars will need to have an obd2 black box , like kids have for insurance, that links them to the network, so selfdirven cars can see them, and give them a wider birth. Maybe 15 years.

Robin Long wrote:

New Holland themselves describe their NHDrive system as Autonomous. <iframe src=”//www.youtube.com/embed/xyu9dhcUnrA” width=”560″ height=”315″ frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen=”allowfullscreen”></iframe> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyu9dhcUnrA – clearly have not mastered linking to a video yet!

They maybe autonomous at what they do, but they are not all doing, all seeing, though they can be very clever. Some farm automation can sector a field checking yields dynamically over quite tiny areas and setting up corrective actions, fill a hollow here, improve drainage there, increase fertiliser somewhere else, improve watering at this point, etc. This is work that humans would be unlikely to ever do, let alone do it profitably. Yes very skilled, yes very profitable if done correctly, but who prepares the machines and does all the other support work that the machine report demands? Even the ‘brightest’ machine will not turn itself into a taxi, or get its own spare parts and fit them, make fertiliser, etc. or perform any other really multifunction demand.

The machines may be autonomous in their roles, but that does not make them intelligent and it certainly does not make them flexible or multifunction. John Deere are currently the cause of considerable complaint in the US since their wonder machines will report a failure, but a visit from their technical support specialist at great cost and delay is usually required to fix the useless piece of otherwise dead junk. So John Deere automation is said to be putting airline pilots, taxi drivers and hotel clerks into jobs. I saw one filter change alleged to have cost the farmer US$ 30,000 in the middle of their harvest run with three days down time. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the claim, I can confirm they were wild about the issue of costs and delays.

Ed P wrote:

Richard, the worrying thing is that once you apply ‘deep-learning’ or ‘machine learning’ the actual work of preparing the program itself can be done on almost a by-rote basis. I’m not even sure that the future amount of skill required to service such machines will be that high – taking the automotive industry as an example, nearly every new car has a diagnostic set-up that tells the mechanic which board/part to replace. It is becoming a gray area on where the capabilities of human intelligence start and machine intelligence ends. The old Turing Test no longer applies as a gold-standard break-point Beeb link. (However,I’m not sure it was ever a very good test). Unfortunately most links on AI versus Human intelligence are dated due to the progress made in AI in the last few years, those that are not are unfortunately tainted by religious rants e.g. ‘Only something made by God can create’. If you plot AI progress versus time we are now close to the point where the effects of exponential progress start to kick-in. This link is a good mid-year CEO level read on the situation of AI at that time. As the writer reassuringly says ‘humans will need to be in the loop’. Unfortunately the writer did not pose the corresponding question ‘How Many’?

I wish that was true about automotive units. I have one with a ‘report’ that is going through automotive shuttlecock at the moment. It appears it could be the A end device, the B end device or the wire between them, or another wire. The ‘B’ end has been changed, the fault is still present. Wiring may get checked tomorrow/Friday with the ‘A’ end spare part arriving on Friday.

That said I agree that using some of the semi autonomous agricultural machines is brought down to a simply level, except for the comment about John Deere, where nothing can be done without a trained ‘specialist’ in attendance. So a whole industry exists, New Holland may hopefully not have caught that boat.

It is dangerous if the job gets too many human aspects de-skilled. I have already seen the effects of that in play with trained system support working through their manual from page 1 to 1000. Sometimes it is useful to know if the power is available and it is turned on. Then take it from there. The system in question was not a small device but a room size collection of racks all interconnected with different dependencies. A practised, skilled, time served technician went straight to the problem area, resolution was then a matter of moments, the chap with a ‘superior’ training CV was on about page 8.

The problem with open sky speculation is that without constraints or understanding of consequences the forecasts are almost always wildly off the mark. One issue can be that what is assumed to be a constant may in fact be a high dependency factor while variables may turn out to have either little impact whatever the value or in practice turn out to have few if any consequences.

Thank you for the link, to be fair it did not contain a huge amount of new information and recalled a ‘computerisation expert’s’ words from 40 years back. When asked what sort of computer system most companies needed his response was, Most businesses needed a system first before they bothered to try to computerise anything. I suspect that is still largely true, a few, e.g Amazon do fairly amazing things, too many do amazingly awful things; we have the ordering experiences to confirm how bad some big names really are. They clearly lack any real system and absolutely no feed back or controls. that does not need AI it needs thinking and if ML and AI are the only ways that such outfits can progress then that is the way that they will have to achieve what is needed. That will put no one out of work since it is clearly not being done at the moment.