[The VFM Addict]

That’s the problem in a nutshell, Ed.    Any cold or flu like symptoms and people will wonder, “Could it be………….”.     So I suspect that an extra burden on the NHS is already developing via 111.     I am also starting to think that we must assume that n-CoV is already in the UK by one route or another and that its probably only the lag time of the incubation period before that becomes totally clear.   The pattern seen in the the quarantined ships  is probably playing out already somewhere in the UK.    The question is at what point at a personal level to go actively into all possible precautions mode?   However, whenever that point is I expect to be in it by the end of this week at the latest if not sooner due to developments.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Be it a potent common cold, 24 hour flu or coronavirus I’m going to stock up on zinc gluconate lozenges and zinc nasal gel tomorrow. Although the research on zinc is mixed it does seem to help stop the body over-reacting and reduces the severity of any fever caused by nasal viruses. (The medical consensus seems to be that most western people are deficient in zinc and that a significant deficiency makes the immune system and any fever spiral out of control. It also seems that nearly all elderly western people are deficient in the mineral due to the gut not working as well as it did).

Frankly I do not care if it is all just voodoo science. This cold and attendant sneezing is driving me nuts, so I’ll cling to any straw!

If you want to check up on zinc for yourself, google on ‘nasal virus zinc gluconate research’.

[Bob Williams]

Scare in Lincolnshire this morning, proved unfounded, scroll right down to ” Skegness coronavirus scare unfounded “:

http://tinyurl.com/va5xumc

The Skegness hospital Urgent Care Centre was closed and sealed off. There is more to the story than shown here, one person had shown symptoms and was brought to the Centre by car containing 2 others.  They were quarantined in their car and guarded. Visitors to the Centre were turned away and no one was allowed in or out. Staff in Biohazard suits were seen inside. Eventually the patient was tested, found to be not suffering the virus and it all went back to normal. Whatever counts as normal in Skeg, that is. lolz.

Whatever form that story will take when it has floated around Skeggy for a day, is anybody’s guess.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

I guess, Bob, that in the current circumstances it will always be debatable where the response is reasonable and where it is over the top irrational panic.

WW2

My maternal grandfather was on searchlight duty not long after Dunkirk.   There was great fear of an assault by German Parachutists or sabotage by 5th columnists.   On perimeter patrol one night down by the bushes that bordered the searchlight site in Kent he heard a sound.   He issued a friend or foe challenge.   No response.   He reissued the challenge.   Still no response and he put one up the spout as loudly as he could such that whoever it was would hear his bolt being worked.    A slight rustling followed which sounded to him like someone crawling after having heard the bolt.    He challenged one more time making clear that he would fire if there was no response.   There was no response but instead now an even louder sound consistent with a person or two now moving fast through the bushes towards him.   He fired towards the sound.   This was met by a screech that sounded like a cow crying out after taking a hit.    It was not a cow.    It was in fact the adjoining farm’s prize bull which had taken what became a fatal hit.   Question – Did my grandfather panic or act entirely rationally given circumstances in which it was wholly conceivable that there had been a genuine threat?    The farmer kicked up one hell of a storm but my grandfather’s CO in the main stood by him; although to appease the farmer he did put my grandfather on minimal token jankers.    He also told my grandfather that was the only reason for the jankers and that had he himself been in such a situation he would have fired even sooner.  Moreover he told my grandfather that if my grandfather was ever in such a position again he would expect him also to fire sooner, saying “Two challenges are enough, laddie, we are at war”.                  

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I have decided to begin active coronavirus precautions from today.

What has influenced my decision is increasing evidence that the virus is far more contagious than previously thought.

The number of suspected cases on the Diamond Princess has doubled in the last 24 hours – now at 130.  This has occurred despite the majority being confined to cabins and all standard precautions being taken.   The Japanese are now considering testing all 3,700 passengers and crew.    I will be surprised if such does not find the number of infections to far exceed 300.     Remember – The 1918/19 Spanish Flu infected a third of the world’s populations and had a R0 (onward infection rate) equal to or less than this coronavirus.

The guy who infected the Brits in the French Ski Chalet did not have symptoms until after he was out of contact with them.   So it is now clear that infected individuals are contagious even before symptoms present.   Any infected individual that has entered the UK is therefore likely to have infected large numbers of others before being detected and who in turn will………….    It is far from remote that infected numbers in the UK are already in the thousands but who are not yet suffering symptoms are therefore undetected but infecting others.  For information – Studies have shown that coronaviruses can survive, especially in cool conditions, up to 9 days on inanimate items.    So how could spread be leveraged by items such as supermarket trolleys or baskets alone or escalator handrails?

Death rates among diagnosed patients on the current data are likely to be in excess of 4%. Comparing current numbers of deaths to current identified cases is misleading due to the lag-time from diagnosis to death if it eventually occurs.   Allowing for the lag we must look at deaths so far against the number that were proven to be infected about 7 days ago.   Do that with today’s death total against detected cases a week ago and we are well above 4% death rate among diagnosed patients who present with significant symptoms.   Working the figures still further we find that 39K cases have not yet reached any outcome (where outcome is death or recovery) so even 4% is likely to be an underestimate.    A similar situation occurred with SARS – the death rate initially being declared to be around half that of which it turned out to be because lag time was not accommodated for in initial calculations.   Are such initial underestimations wilful by the authorities for fear of precipitating panic?

Considering all of the above we almost certainly have a situation where we are facing a virus every bit as lethal as SARS (possibly even more so) but which is far, far more contagious.  This is consistent with China’s degree of reaction.   It is probably to some significant degree already in the UK but this reality is being played down somewhat.    Note – That is not a conspiracy theory rather an understandable desire on the part of the authorities to give the NHS time to fully prepare before the overwhelming rush of panic begins in earnest.

Short of buying a full NBC suit….lol….I’m as prepared as anyone can be.   It is, as I see it, surely time to actively seek to mitigate as far as is possible most risks.    Wait longer and it is now far from remote that one will be infected before actively trying not to be.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

While I was writing the above post the Government hit the sirens.  Note ominous powers of compulsory isolation are being put in place.   People can be forcibly quarantined or sent into isolation and will not be free to leave.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

Quarantine either means what it says or becomes meaningless. If some cowboy/girl decides that they are too big to be ruled, then there is only one right way to deal with them. Restrict their usurped ‘wrong’ not right to infect, or at least risk infecting others. I see such action as far from ominous, I note that to date others are complying/ have complied without issue. As far as I remember using such powers is not new similar rules have been used in the past for other possibly equally or more deadly threats or risks. Sadly it has not always been the case, e.g. Typhoid-Mary, who continued to run food establishments infecting others in the USA as a symptomless carrier. You cannot have both sides of the coin, complaining about a lack of action and bemoaning action being taken.

As is usual, there are an infinite number of issues and questions yet a distinct range of clear answers. Latent infection periods, life on random surfaces, air-born life spans, the number of so-called super carriers and so on almost ad infinitum. As time passes knowledge will accumulate and the threat will either wipe us all out, though at the moment this appears unlikely or it will subside down to a lower level leaving a range of consequences.

For the moment I have enough to deal with on the medical front. For a range of reasons I have limited contacts, shopping is a rare and not usually welcome hassle, so I will try, yet probably fail to keep up with routine hygiene and other activities and wait to see how the damned wind blows, currently far too strongly at the moment!

[Ed P]

The guy is evidently feared to be a ‘super-spreader’ as an NHS friend of mine tells me that they have already quarantined his local pub in Hove, and I guess the bar staff are similarly inconvenienced. He had no word on the patrons of the pub/restaurant but I guess they have been asked to self quarantine. No news either on how the authorities are handling his transport from airport to home.

I will not give the name of the pub as I have not heard the info from independent sources.

 

[Ed P]

Edits still not working!

I was trying to add that alcohol gel may be unobtainable in your area. If you have any IPA, putting some on a paper towel is a very acceptable alternate to washing your hands in scotch! My pharmacist said he was certain 95% IPA would kill all nasal viruses, he thought that it could be safely diluted to 70% and still disrupt virus cell walls.

Do not use meths! This can be absorbed through the skin and cause liver disease.

[Ed P]

Btw, either I had 24 hour flu, or the zinc gluconate works! Very nearly no symptoms today so I was able to walk into town to restock on zinc without fear of being interned!

[The VFM Addict]

My use of the word ‘ominous’, Richard, was due to the random nature of the power.    The power is not that only those ‘diagnosed’ may be detained it requires only that it be suspected that an individual might pose a risk.

In the early days of the forthcoming spread I have no doubts that the decisions as to who poses a risk will be taken reasonably by those qualified to undertake a rational assessment of probability. However, very rapidly indeed such capacity for reasoned decisions will be totally overwhelmed. Then if Mr Plod or other empowered minor official sees you have a cough or scan as having a high temperature you will be carted off to be banged up in over crowded quarantine centres that are even higher risk hot beds of infection than is the Diamond Princess at present.   So even if all you had was merely a bad cold or normal flu and you only popped out for the first time in a week to get food supplies or medicines, which you could not avoid doing, you’ll find yourself fast-tracked to acquiring 2019-nCoV.    This is the ominous reality of these powers in circumstances as we will face.   Call them a shoot first ask questions later policy if you wish.

Rule 1 within a week or two will be don’t go out if you have a temperature.   But some folks, and my other half is within that group, always have a temperature a degree or so above the norm due to her mix of chronic conditions even in the absence of any infection.    Try explaining that to Mr Plod and him having enough medical knowledge to understand and believe you.

So I agree, Richard, the powers are not themselves ominous but inevitably the practical consequences of them are damn ominous.    The scenes you can see on the web occurring in China with folks being dragged off the streets with medical assessments being made by unqualified Police or minor officials (re-purposed Traffic Wardens for example) will soon be replicated here.

Ed, I think also made that point in his last post and far more concisely and humorously than I can.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I think that the comment about the Government/NHS needing time to get its act together was spot on. There have been a number of local South East actions taking place over the last five days that have imo deliberately not been pulled together for National Reporting:

Brighton Surgery (reopening after steam cleaning)

Crowborough company (East Sussex)

Hove Pub (remains open)

 

 

 

 

[The VFM Addict]

Ed, re your post if its not already rife in London now I’d be surprised as its certain to having ‘commuted’ in from Sussex Monday to Friday.

Zinc

I agree as regards the need to keep one’s zinc levels up.   There’s no voodoo science about it.    It is good science.

Zinc is actually a strange one in that it doesn’t increase one’s immune response but rather tempers it such that it doesn’t do more harm than good by over reacting.    Very often it is the over reaction of the immune system and the inflammation that such causes that does the damage.   In most cases of pneumonia for example it’s the pulmonary inflammation that causes the inability of the lungs to effectively oxygenate one’s blood.    Zinc can modulate this over reaction and supplementation  should help if one is to any degree deficient.    Its potential significance in respect of the current threat is obvious.    This is worth a read if you are really interested.

The over 60’s are more likely to be Zinc deficient than the young.    So supplementation cannot hurt and might genuinely be of life saving benefit for some infected by 2019-nCoV because it is the pulmonary inflammation that does the main damage.    One rider though – If you supplement just be careful not to take more than 25mg a day because such excessive supplementation can itself cause anaemia.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Another downside to over consumption of zinc is that you lose your sense of taste/smell.

[Richard]

VFM, do not worry, if you could ever find a Mr Plod, they will all be tied up anyway, dealing with the Extermination Rebellion nut jobs anyway.

Anyone who could be mistaken for slightly off colour should avoid mixing with the great public (should that be the grating public?).

I still remember the outcry about a Paediatrician during the outcry about Paedophiles.

I shall still go off to my ENT appointment to progress a constant sinus infection for the past 6 months. Despite multiple nasal washes per day, sprays and loads of tablets, it is nowhere near being controlled.

The available accommodation for quarantine requires candidate vetting above anything else, though the odd random witch hunt has already happened and more will be encountered.

[The VFM Addict]

Not a bad thing about losing one’s sense of smell, Ed, because a lot of people are now with good cause s?#ting themselves.

News re 2019-nCoV is really moving fast and is often astounding.

China are now counting those with positive tests but no symptoms as unconfirmed cases.   Can you believe that?  No wonder the rate of growth in confirmed cases has slowed the last two days.

Meanwhile Hong Kong has acknowledged that tracking symptom-less carriers is vital to getting control of this pandemic which I suspect all in Europe agree with given the Brit “Super-Carrier”.

I think as far as the UK is concerned the phoney war is over or put differently the shout as of today is resoundedly – INCOMING !!!   Its time to duck and take cover.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I agree with the comment on it hitting London.

The deliberate Government silence on how he got from Gatwick to Hove suggests that the Government knows he did not use his car and that the brown stuff has hit the fan via the  8pm train. On the Easyjet side the news is better; no cabin crew have been infected and they are tracing nearby passengers. (However, I would have been happier if that news had been in the past tense!).

[The VFM Addict]

Richard, bacterial infections of the sinuses, middle ear and vagina are more common in those who are magnesium deficient.   I’ll bet your serum Mg+ has never been checked; that none of the tablets you are taking are Mg and that a blood test will find you either magnesium deficient or at the very bottom of the normal range for serum Mg.   The normal range is set far too low and folks at the bottom of it are deficient.    Get your medics to ‘suck it and see’ it might educate them.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

+1 to the Magnesium comment. Since supplementing with magnesium citrate my general health other than damned seasonal colds has improved and so too has my blood pressure.

[The VFM Addict]

Just to really brighten our day the Chinese Government has admitted, well effectively admitted to being utter C#*ts.    The squeamish should turn away now.

The Shanghai government just announced some terrible news – The virus IS airborne. It can be spread through the air even if the infected person isn’t present.   Previously, many doctors advice was to maintain a 1-2m distance and not wear a mask. This advice is now useless!

Virus-containing droplets such as spray from a sneeze can remain airborne & stably suspended in air in effectively aerosol form like an air freshener.   So walk where an infected person previously walked (assuming it has not rained) and collect your free prize.

That huge street spraying in China now makes total sense, doesn’t it !    Which means it is highly likely they have known this for some time but kept it quiet.    Great, ‘king great!

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

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