[Ed P]

Just to throw in another bit of extraneous data, I would guess that the good doctors name is actually Li Wen Liang. If you are a member of the Li clan iirc the second name tells another clan member how he fitted into the genealogical family tree and the one or two names of his father as there is a moderately rigid sequence to the way males are named. In the more westernised areas the (generally two) given names are often chosen to make them easy to form into a western name that gweilos (big nosed white ghost men) can pronounce.

[The VFM Addict]

Just read this.  It makes you feel what its like to be there in a hospital at the heart of this crisis.    It made me shudder.  Especially the comments about another local hospital where 40% of the staff are infected and those that are now don’t bother any longer to wear protective gear in the segregated coronavirus ICU; quite rational really because both they and patients in the unit are already infected.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Should have added that the article also provides good info on the progression of the virus in those who need substantive care and also details the routes by which it kills the unlucky ones.   It seems that rather than it being simply intractable respiratory distress that leads to death there is often a total war of attrition between the virus and one’s immune system.    In simple terms rather than one’s immune system at that point simply being ineffective against the virus at that stage one’s immune system totally dies on its feet from exhaustion and multiple organ failure follows.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

The thing I posted above about it knocking out one’s immune system troubled me.   Then I recalled seeing this earlier today.    I’m finding what at first seems to be a crazy conspiracy theory more and plausible by the day and by the hour.      China’s reaction is far too over the top, crippling is own economy with multiple city lock-downs, spraying streets on such a scale and all for the number of deaths they say are occurring which are less than China would expect from a normal flu outbreak.    Me thinks China knows more than its saying.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Bob Williams]

I start turning off when the conspiracy theories turn up. So, I imagine, will many more.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Spraying the street is weird unless they believe a pest/flea is an intermediate host. They state that they have positively identified the intermediate host and will be annoncing it shortly. The endangered species, the pangolin is one speculation which would be a just revenge on those Chinese who ate pangolins for their own health!

[Richard]

Bob, I completely agree with you.

Ed, the regime is getting a lot of flack at the moment, washing the streets may be totally useless, but as in Paris may be a regular thing anyway. One going in its favour from the Chinese government point of view is that it looks as though they are doing something, however ineffective or otherwise it might be.

[Ed P]

I never went to Wuhan so I cannot comment on their current habits. When I was a regular visitor >20 years ago to other parts of China no streets were washed in other cities – it would have annoyed too many occupants due missing window panes etc.

[Ed P]

I have just thought for a very good reason for spraying the pavements etc – spitting.  Chinese males are inveterate ‘spitters’. I can give no rationale for their habit, but it is actually quite noticeable and not subject to any local/state controls. Females do not generally share this disgusting habit.

[The VFM Addict]

@Bob and Richard

I guess it depends on how you define a Conspiracy.   For me inherent in its definition is a plot or plan enacted with forethought.   I certainly do not think all of what is occurring fits such a definition and was planned by anyone.    Things that occur by accident and which folks or states then desire to circumvent any accountability for, I myself term a Cover-Up.    Here the indicators I believe hinge towards such being a real probability.    I have heard two UK based medical Professors on two different radio channels say today in similar words that most virologists and epidemiologists believe there are things that the Chinese are not currently telling us.  Another Professor from Imperial College London was explicit in an interview broadcast on the web that he feels the true number of infected in China is likely to be ten times the number published and outside China four times the current figures through non-detection.    Certainly it seems likely that the infected numbers in China, a state of over 1.4 billion are likely to be far higher than the published 35K; given that there have been over 61 infected on a ship of 3,700 passengers in Tokyo.

The apparent linear growth in newly diagnosed cases over the last four days rather than the exponential growth seen previously is likely to be because testing capacity is currently at full capacity; hence there can never be more than a finite number of ‘diagnosed’ new cases each day.

As I said earlier China’s actions are wholly inconsistent with being a reaction to a flu family virus, which from what they are saying, is killing less numbers than are killed in road accidents there every week.   The Chinese reaction suggests to me that those at the top of that state are very scared by this virus and if that’s so then I for one am more than willing to join them.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

OH SHIT  – Now we know why they are scared and spraying.

Confirmed transmission routes of the novel coronavirus include direct transmission, contact transmission and aerosol transmission, a Shanghai official said on Saturday.

“Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts,” said Zeng Qun, deputy head of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau.

See here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

For those getting prepared aerosol transmission means goggles as well as masks.   But they can of course be sanatized/washed each day.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

Most modern conspiracy theorists apply no pre-thought to their theory. They take an event, sit in their lair stringing anything they can find into an incoherent theory to ‘explain’ what they cannot comprehend. Or to sell to suckers who can then panic. History is full of events and sects based on such crap, and they still continue to flourish. Their main contribution is to complicate already complex problems, they remove value and add nothing.

There are several fronts on which concerns can be addressed. Currently, there is a trend to patent anything that people can get away with patenting so that they can then charge royalties from anyone who drifts into using any aspect of the patient. For  years there has been a spat over Americans taking free genome data created by the Welcome and the Sanger institutes. They stuck a bit on the top to create a patent for which they wished to charge an excessive fee. This means your genome data can be patented so that you cannot get access without payment, even if you were to sequence it yourself. This is why so many have claimed patents on any work related to the sequencing of many things, the moral aspects of claiming a patent on something that exists naturally is, at best questionable.

Turning to the mess that is now China. Without needing any conspiracy theory it is pretty easy to see what is going on. The Chinese Government is a total control animal. However, in this case they have shown a total absence of effective control. They allowed market to thrive in ways that clearly promoted to creation and spread of zoonotic illnesses. Then they tried to bar any discussion of the failure and its initial consequences. Ongoing discussion of the events is actively blocked in a failing effort to save face. No one needs a conspiracy theory to explain that there have been multiple failures, they are endemic in all totalitarian states. (Even in Trump-land with his mantra of fake news, whenever bad news hits home.)

What I object to are taking bits of half-baked ideas, such as patents exist on the genetic data on a bug family so this means today’s bogie bug was man made.

Sadly, the first casualty of war is truth and that died in China long ago, well before this outbreak. Now, their government has to look as though it is in control. Let us face facts, this stable of wild horses never really had a stable from which to escape. They are now rampaging as some have done before, remember SARS? Most viruses can live for short periods outside their hosts, the only issue is how long is that period? Though a side issue is, what conditions enhance survival. Some like moist, humid conditions, some do not survive in the presence of certain surfaces or conditions, e.g. ultraviolet light, ozone, etc. the list is indefinite. I understand some metals are life limiting for some viruses, so suitable for hand rails and so on. Moist humid, warm conditions exist on most transport where passengers are crammed together in close contact for enough time to allow efficient transfer of viable fragments. Hey ho, these fragments might also find hosts in which they can combine to form novel bugs. Using the infinite number of monkeys theorem, with enough fragments with almost unlimited hosts plus ideal transmission situations, e.g a city with crowded transport and insanitary animal husbandry. Wow, it must be a conspiracy against public transport. Or perhaps not, it is a complaint (not conspiracy) against huge cities with their novel and as yet misunderstood issues.

Being sneezed or coughed on is as close to direct contact as makes no difference. What matters is the flight time that any aerosols remain viable and what entry routes can they employ for successful entry to new hosts. Tied in with this is when do hosts become spreaders and via what mechanisms? If they spread the infection while not showing symptoms, is contact,  exhaling or what?

Spraying empty streets looks colourful and is symbolic of action being taken. One might also venture to suggest it is about as much use as having a chicken bone through your nose. We know the mouth, eyes and nose are principle entry routes. So is the skin for some problems, especially if there are any breaks in the surface. Maybe it is a conspiracy by the makers of barrier creams, gloves, goggles and masks to sell more products to fend off infections.

Recent leapfrog incidents show that proximity to sources of infection are a key issue, the ski chalet, cruise ships, cities, their transport and perhaps planes are all proven risk situations. Perhaps the mobile loving, proximity shunning population are onto something after all?

Or perhaps more care about personal hygiene, sanitising and general well-being considerations are just as important. Anyone for hand and face sanitising – but not baby wipes, which are indicted as part of the outbreak of allergy issues, but that is a different can of worms.

[Ed P]

I once read a scientific article that linked the rise in MRSA and other hospital-based nasties to modern hospital beds. The old design of beds had brass rails and other brass fittings everywhere. Even putting aside the activity of keeping these shiny, brass itself is poisonous to most bacteria and I would guess at least disruptive to most viruses.

[The VFM Addict]

Richard, as I said earlier I do not see this as likely to be a conspiracy.   But a cover-up, yes.   So in part we agree.    Experimenting with viruses to further medical knowledge and seek cures is relatively common place.   It is not implausible that such a construction may escape.   It’s a bit like the old IRA adage.   The virus only needs to get lucky once to escape captivity.   But it remains that whether this is or is not man-made is now purely academic, is it not?   It’s in the community despite its origins.  That is what we must deal with.

Practicalities and Realities

With the NHS already being stretched to the point of failure during the normal flu season I think all of us here know that if the coronavirus breaks fully in the UK one’s chances of ever receiving effective medical care will diminish very rapidly indeed as the numbers grow.    The NHS will be overwhelmed almost instantly.    Therefore it is surely prudent not merely to consider the best steps to avoid getting infected but to also consider to what extent self-care is possible if one does become infected and suffers significant symptoms at the point where there are miles of queues at all A&E’s; that is to say when self-care has become pretty much the only available option.

In hospital the universal mainstay of supportive therapy for 2019-nCoV patients is Oxygen.   Because once one is hypoxic all organs are increasingly threatened and one’s own immune system’s capacity to put up a fight falls rapidly and dramatically.   It follows that when looking at ways to provide supportive care at home in the event that the NHS capacity is entirely overwhelmed supplying Oxygen is paramount.

These days home oxygen is not usually ‘bottled’.   Rather, what are called Oxygen Concentrators are used.    These selectively remove nitrogen from ambient air to provide an oxygen enriched gas steam as high as 90% oxygen and approach the practical effectiveness of ‘bottled’ oxygen which in any event is almost never used much above 95% in any event.

Oxygen Concentrators that can run 24/7 and can supply up to 6L a minute can be purchased from UK stockists for about £150-£200.   Search ebay.  But here’s the rub.   Most of the affordable devices are produced in China.   Hence current UK stocks will I suspect dry up very soon with little prospect of re-supply in the near future.    True, buying a concentrator now which may never be used or indeed may not be sufficient to sustain life even if it has to be used could be a total waste of money.    However, I view such expenditure as insurance when we are facing a genuine threat to life.    One thing self evident; better to have one unused in a cupboard with the only hit being to one’s bank account than get to the point of desperately needing one but none being source able.   YMMV but my mind is made up.    Ordering today.

If you don’t already have one a Pulsoximeter is a useful ‘canary’  to monitor blood oxygen saturation.   Below 90 sats is of concern and below 88 you do need oxygen.

I am now truly in full preparedness mode not least because the head of the WHO is now telling states to prepare for a pandemic.    Hardly surprising now that aerosol transmission seems verified.   While direct contact was thought required this was perhaps containable.    Now not a chance in hell.   BTW most experts now believe that once lag time between infection and death is accommodated in calculations the fatality rate is well in excess of 4% of formally diagnosed patients.    Today’s fatalities to date are a reflection of the number of cases diagnosed six or seven days ago.   It simply took a week to kill them.   So its 813 deaths from 19.7K.    Younger fitter patients who eventually succumb have far longer lag times.   Dr Li put up one hell of a fight 26 days from confirmed diagnosis to death.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

My edits are not working again!

I wanted to add that it would be very difficult for any East Asian government to have shutdown Wet Markets as they have been a traditional scene in that part of the world. I guess that the politics have now changed.

I also suggested a visit to the New Straits Times to see how a ‘liberal’ authoritarian Government is  handling the crisis. e.g. keeping the public informed of places to avoid e.g. Churches, handing out four surgical masks to each household (to be worn by those coughing or sneezing etc), strict home quarantines supervised by Internet checks. (I’m not quite sure how this works but Skype land-line calls are part of the system.)

They are also trying to dissuade people from stockpiling food basics/masks/etc in their homes. So do not run down your Brexit stockpile just yet!

[Ed P]

If you (or anyone else) are serious about purchasing an oxygen concentrator be very careful to read and fully understand the usage/safety instructions. Get familiar with its procedures well before you feel really under the weather. Even a small home machine could start a fierce blaze if badly sited or used.

High purity oxygen can be a very dangerous beast. When I was a young Chemical Engineer oxygen generator safety was a big safety thing. Admittedly this was Lox (liquid oxygen) but at that time every year at least one plant together with all its operators would disappear with a flash and a load bang from somewhere in the world. On the more positive side, high purity gases are unlikely to generate such a bang unless someone decides to dust a cake with icing sugar near a source of ignition!

[The VFM Addict]

Forget the icing sugar because you’d have been taken out by the flour dust explosion when making the cake………….   Flour mills have long been danger zones and that’s even without the presence of concentrated oxygen.

You are right of course though, Ed.   I should have mentioned need to learn about good safety practices and come to think of it the need to religiously sanitize the kit daily to avoid turning that kit into a highly efficient bacterial or fungal pneumonia generator.

On a different tack I hope the Brit today diagnosed in Majorca with the virus was not a Club’er or the spread will be out of control instantly.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[JayCeeDee]

One consolation with this weather – any  viruses out loose ‘in the wild’, so to speak, will all be blown back to Europe!!😆😛

[Ed P]

I’m not sure that they need to be a ‘clubber’,

The business man who caught it in Singapore, not only travelled twice with a captive plane load of people sharing recycled air, he would on arrival from France in a British airport (probably Gatwick) have travelled coughing and sneezing through a crowded train station and caught the train to Brighton sharing it with dozens of unknown passengers. Whether that gives cause for major concern depends on whether or not he is a super-spreader. Judging by the fact that he infected five+ in a chalet implies that he is certainly not a low count spreader.

Having just caught a bad cold myself I’m starting to get worried, but I console myself that the grandchildren did not come in with their usual Porton Down payload so I’m probably OK!

[Author]

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