[Richard]

The part played by people movement has been highlighted with the report today that a passenger had left a cruise ship and a number of passengers have since developed the virus infection. Trapping the rest of the passenger in a quarantine situation. The passenger in question appeared to leave the vessel some days ago on the 25th January having joined the ship in Japan on the 20th. The infected passengers are all in their later years, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s according to the reports, though they are said to be not serious at this time. All confirmed cases are being treated on the mainland in medical facilities. It is unclear to me if the seventy-year-old Chinese person came aboard on the 20th already infected or where he picked up the infection. Some detective work is now required by the public health people in Japan.

Spanish flu was said to be spread by people movements, along with a number of other issues of the time.

A contact about to leave Hong Kong bemoaned the poor reaction he was observing with the meat markets still selling anything and everything with little regard to hygiene or precautions. While we can speculate about the effectiveness of face masks they are largely unobtainable there in any form and prices for everything have been rising steeply. He is glad to be departing – but should he come home under the circumstances?

Given that the ability to spread the virus for at least 14 days before showing symptoms and the fact that some who perhaps showed mild symptoms continued contact with others, I am not surprised that the infection rates have continued an upward trend in China. I am reasonably certain that reporting has been progressively tightened up over the past few weeks and both of those will influence the infection recording rate. I lack knowledge of epidemic infection curves. Given the absence of data, I suspect few other qualified sources have.

[Ed P]

One problem seems to be that a significant number of infected people do not feel very ill. It was reported that this was a cause of a German outbreak, as one infected Chinese visitor felt under the weather and just thought she had a cold.

China is nearly the only source of face masks, and they now have major shortages. The medical profession in Europe is starting to get concerned at potential hospital shortages and the consequent impact on operations.

[The VFM Addict]

Yes, Ed, the knock on effects are potentially as dangerous or even more dangerous than the virus itself.    The ebay cost of masks in the UK have risen 5,000%.     The morally bankrupt are making a killing and it was only morals that kept me from buying every mask I could lay my hands on a week or so ago.   Because sure as hell this was obvious by then to a guaranteed get rich quick proposition.

I’m also concerned there will be shortages of pharmaceuticals.  Cocktails of antivirals currently used to treat HIV are being used to threat this and the production capacity for those compounds has not the slightest chance of meeting needs once this breaks worldwide.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

Companies in Hong Kong are bringing masks in from USA and South Africa, I am told that Macao has captured the supply from Portugal. People in Hong Kong are not happy with the masks that work best, they want the basic 3 layer paper type not the PM3 versions because the inferior ones are easier and more comfortable to wear. I wonder, would they also prefer swimwear to stab vests in a different threat scenario?

I imagine that there are all sorts of limits on the makers and the supply points preventing a rapid change of manufacturing from one area to another, it is easy to say but usually impractical.

The use and abuse of pharmaceuticals is a whole other issue and one that must be based on clinical needs. Happily for most potential sufferers they appear unjustified.

[The VFM Addict]

Current estimates coming out of China are that despite 500 deaths (approx) to date about 2K confirmed cases remain critical.    Therefore even if three out of every four of those 2K pull through that’s still 500 more deaths among confirmed cases; meaning the fatality rate will be twice that which the figures currently suggest.   That’s not good.

My wonder is also whether China are testing community dead to see if they had 2019-nCoV and then including them in confirmed cases and deaths?    Because sure as heck there will be deaths that occur in the community before that poor individual even attended a medical unit.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Doubling time now down to 4 days.    That’s all right then.     This thing cant last much more than a couple of months.   Because everyone on planet Earth will have it in 72 days time. ❗

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

It seems to be spreading fastest in big cities. Singapore cases have tripled in the last four/five days. Its logical that this trend seems to be in effect as big city transport systems tend to bunch people together.

The area to watch is East Africa as there are large numbers of Chinese traders in that area, many of whom will have gone home for the New Year. If we see one or two cases in Kenya in the next couple of weeks you can bet that there are many dozens of unreported ones in Mozambique. Dar es Salaam and Tanzania.

[Richard]

There is increasingly sceptical comment about the true figures for infections, deaths and degrees of illness within China. As ever, the apparently good news is spread with joy, but the real position is rather less clear. The new hospitals have been somewhat trumpeted, but more and more capacity is being added by taking over a range of other buildings, hotels, sports centres and so on. There is less fanfare for these activities. None of this suggests that other locations should let up on their prudent activities and trying to ensure that everyone follows the best care and hygiene practices.

[The VFM Addict]

I truly hope all Forumites are now getting into full preparedness mode.   Now is the time to buy masks before they increase exponentially in cost while availability plummets.   Likewise with hand sanitizing gels.    Experience from China and Hong Kong suggests that paper products such as tissues and toilet paper also go into short supply very quickly.    Beyond that its a case of stockpiling anything which you would normally buy in crowded locations because you will want to avoid such places as much as possible.

Someone said to me today that this is rather like an apocalyptic disaster movie playing out in real time before our eyes.   Certainly all footage from China looks exactly like one.     Empty streets, folks in something akin to full NBC suits in every direction and street disinfecting by all manner of gigantic spraying devices.     Bodies being collected from houses and apartments everywhere and the authorities sealing people in large multi-occupant dwellings the second it is suspected there are infected individuals inside.    There is footage of bodies being collected from homes in provinces where China say there have been no verified coronavirus deaths.     Well if you don’t test the dead for the virus then that will always be the case, won’t it.   Oh well lets be thankful that the infected don’t turn into zombies desperate to infect others.

To use an analogy – Is what we are seeing still only the ‘phoney war’ with real carnage yet to come?    I suspect it is.    I also suspect that fatality rates are in reality far higher than published figures suggest.   This is getting grimmer by the day.   I don’t mean to scaremonger.  Quite the opposite really.   Unless one recognises what one is facing one is never likely to be prepared.   So I’ll finish as I began.   Get ready folks.  Prepare to stay safe.   The time is surely now given the 4 day doubling time.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

MASKS

The Government are recommending FFP3 respirator masks for medical staff (sometimes called N95) these are valved masks.   I’m picking then up at £3.95 for two currently from a local outlet that I advised just over a week ago to buy in BULK.    They are selling like hot cakes already and that’s a good price.   Ebay prices are already approaching £3 each.    I can prices in general being £5+ each inside a month.     If you know a local pharmacy well and which does not rip folks off it may be worth asking what they can get them at for you and if the price is good buy a stock.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Third case now – this time in Brighton.

There are a lot of language schools in that city. We can only hope it was picked up before he/she mingled with the student population or general public.

This is one case where the absence of any detailed information is a poor idea, but typical of this Government’s innate desire to stifle discussions of any sort in the press or media. Rumour spreads faster and is much more damaging.

[The VFM Addict]

And in Brighton the massive University of Sussex plus numerous small (cramped) clubs.    A veritable playground of delight for coronavirus.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Update on the Brighton victim. He is apparently a middle-aged Brighton resident who contracted the disease in Asia (not China). The authorities think they have identified and got in touch with all his contacts (no word on whether they have been asked to self-isolate for 14 days).

[Ed P]

Later it was reported that the man caught Snake Flu in Singapore.

As many will know coronavirus is a highly inaccurate name for the flu as it is too generic (bit like saying cricket balls and footballs are identical). Equally calling it novel or n-Cov 2019 is clumsy.

As a side note, when the ‘official’ common name at last emerges it will not be ‘snake’ flu or ‘bat’ flu or any other animal for that matter. The reason for this is that when a virus was named as Swine flu it caused an unnecessary mass slaughter of pigs.  The lack of a common name and the time taken to find one underlines the inefficiency of poorly led committees when it comes to taking decisions!

[Richard]

But Ed, you must allow for all the PC objections these days. Naming it after animals has many problems, perhaps that are eaten somewhere as ‘essential protein’, or they are ‘untouchables’ somewhere else. Origin based naming is not acceptable for some, e.g. probably the Chinese, while others desire finger pointing. The unwashed are already shunning contact with anyone who looks in any way from the Far East. Numbers are too hard for many to remember and so on. A paid, professional junket collector/attender has their role to protect, at any price to the tax payers who fund them.

To me N-Cov-2019/20 is as good as any name, 2019-Death-Flu is perhaps a bit too graphic. Neither may translate very well into 175 different languages!

[The VFM Addict]

I would name it after Dr Li Wenliang the doctor who first tried to warn about it and has since died of it.   Its not unusual to name medical conditions after the doctor who first documented a condition.   I suspect he would – given his efforts and were he still alive – see such a naming as a mark of respect.   Long may his name be remembered and honoured.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

“I would name it after Dr Li Wenliang”

Probably a bit too difficult for general use in the West. Li is his family/clan name so maybe WenLi or LiWen might be better.

[The VFM Addict]

Yes, I was thinking along those lines.

As an aside I’ve always been fascinated by name structuring and protocols in different races in respect of what we consider to be surnames.    The Indian name Patel, for example, originated not as a name but a title for a head, leader or lord.   In parts of India it remains a title being used as such to be respectful.    At the same time all Sikh men strictly speaking take the surname Singh as most folks know.  However, all Sikh females strictly speaking take the surname Kaur; although the rule is sometimes not followed in the west as generations progress.    The Icelandic system is even stranger yet incredibly simple.   Male surnames are simply the father’s first name plus the suffix “son”.   So Magnus Magnuson’s father we know instantly was also called Magnus as a first name but his second name could have been anything depending on what his father’s first name was.   Icelandic women follow the same methodology but this time based on their mother’s first name and adding “dóttir” as the suffix, which is Icelandic for daughter.   So for example Freda Gretadóttir would be Freda the daughter of Greta.   This must all be a nightmare when it comes to plotting family lines because there is no family surname as such and only siblings of the same gender are ever certain to have the same last name.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

While I understand your desire to commemorate the good Doctor, now sadly deceased, I can see that not succeeding against Chinese censors. By all accounts they are currently at full stretch dealing with the local groundswell of discontent over the party’s screw-up over him and the outbreak.

[Bob Williams]

Adding to your family name post VFM: in Wales, especially North Wales, Matrilineal descent was once the norm. In my family history, we have been Williams since 1707, when a Sion Williams met with a Dafydd ap Rhys and their son became Dafydd Williams, later corrected to David by an ignorant English cleric with an obvious hearing difficulty. The same cleric rendered Sion as “Jone” (sic) and Dafydd ap Rhys, as David Price. Apparently my granddad would almost foam at the mouth about this. So in one way, our whole line should have been ap Rhys, or Price.

Me, I’m happy with being a Williams, what’s in a name? Proud to be English, but also proud of my Welsh ancestry.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Author]

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