[Ed P]

Some recent data from the ONS:

“The latest CIS antibody data show that in the week beginning 10 January 2022, the percentage of children aged 12 to 15 years who would have tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies ranged from 90.2% to 93.3% The percentage of children aged 8 to 11 years old that would have tested positive ranged from 63.3% to 72.7% in the same week. ”

I have always said that school children are a mass of bugs, bacteria and viruses. This ONS survey demonstrates that kids are just mobile petri dishes!

[Ed P]

If you regularly go for hospital checkups then it is worth applying for a Lateral Flow Test Kit today. My local hospital still asks that visitors take a test before going for an examination.

After today such tests will cost you £2+. Hopefully you can still get the free ones by applying today!

[Ed P]

Of all the federated states within the ‘UK’, Wales has handled the latest Covid outbreak better than all the others. Scotland despite its more stringent controls has fared worst. The latest ONS data bears this out

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

[JayCeeDee]

I think that Wales took the opportunity to follow Boris on the decisions that he got right, but weren’t under the same pressure so didn’t release at the same time/too soon. I got the impression they kept the common sense restrictions up for longer too. Plus the population were wider spread, although that didn’t work so well for Scotland. They just seemed very Scottish and contrary about it all, doing their own thing with a “F*ck you, we know best!!” attitude.

I’m due my 5th jab now ( two main, one extra and 1st booster so far – 6 months since my last one ) and that should be this weekend depending on which one is available. Arm is like a pin-cushion at the moment as I’ve also just had the first of my two shingles jabs.

[Dave Rice]

Taking the area and dividing by the population is meaningless out of context. Wales’s population is heavily concentrated in Swansea, Cardiff and Newport, the South Wales Valleys and the north-eastern corner. It is therefore an urbanized population so the comparisons are much more relevant than at first look.

You only have to look at Cornwall to see how the figures change when areas become more densely populated. It’s where I recently caught Covid when visiting the family and going into the now packed pubs and streets of Padstow. The family, young and old, all had it long before any of us living in the city and the timing is linked to the various relaxations and tourist influxes.

One of the hot spots in the West was consistently the Somerset Levels where the “population density” is bugger all compared to Bristol, but it’s concentrated in the strings of villages on the dry ridges of land (just look at a map). There’s probably only one Post Office / shop / garage serving a large area and it’s going to be a much smaller premises than our Tesco.

I seem to remember from watching programs on the Black Death that once a disease gets into a community, that’s it no matter how distributed it is. At some stage local people meet, game over.

I was due to have my booster by now, but catching Covid has delayed it.

 

[Ed P]

The ONS figures do not actually use ‘area’. They express their numbers as percent of population, and each ‘area’ consists of about 7000 people. You then get a rate/100000 from this. I’m not sure how they work the stats when consolidating these small electoral areas into a big area, but I guess they just average them.

Unfortunately Wales refused to use the same low level granular approach so afaik it is impossible to compare (say) one of the small valley towns with an equivalent one in England. If it were possible I’d compare it with (say) Coleford Glos as that has similar social habits to the ones you mentioned.

All that said, I would not argue that it was the young and social gatherings that drove the rate of infection, but I think England had an unannounced policy of herd immunization and balanced economic impacts against death and disease. Wales may have done the same, but put more weight on the death and disease cost.

[Les.]

From time to time I think (a little bit) deeply about this.

It seems this is weakening now compared with the first strain.  And of course so did the 1918 Bird Flu.

It has been said that a killer, bug, virus, bacterium or whatever has no future in being too efficient. So just as the 1918 pandemic started off very likely to kill an infected person, clearly it became less so as time went on. So it appears to be with the CoVid-19 pandemic.

Why is that?

Do we ALWAYS develop herd immunity?

Does the strain always weaken?

Of course, unlike 1918, we have developed vaccines, which MUST have saved many lives.

However just like the 1918 thing, as Covid-19 lessens its grip, “Stuff” follows it. For example, Long Covid seems to take many forms. It is being suggested that the rash of hepatitis is a consequence of Covid-19, and I think I am right in saying that Polio was a follow up to 1918 event, and there were others.

However was not the black death MUCH more vicious? But that obviously disappeared eventually.

Perhaps VFM would know, but he has long since absented himself

Les.

[Ed P]

Unfortunately Les, if you ask the Chinese they would say that the latest strains of Covid kill the old and vulnerable just as effectively as the first strain but are far more infectious.

This is the reason you will read that cities such as Shanghai have spent many long weeks in complete lock down.

Europe and the UK can afford to be more relaxed because the MRNA vaccines have proved very effective in protecting the old and vulnerable.The Chinese use a less effective traditional ‘Oxford’ type vaccine.

If you read the journals you will find that these sectors of the population are just as prone to catching (and re catching) the virus, but it rarely kills, and often just makes people feel they have a bad case of flu.

Normally viruses DO tend to evolve to be more infectious and less lethal. I guess though that the Covid virus is ‘happy ‘ with its low lethality towards the young and fit who unwittingly act as efficient virus transmitters. As a result it maintains its lethality towards sections of the population as there are no pressures for it to change.

If you look at the detailed stats the virus is quite racist in its lethality. Some may well be due to social factors, but some, such as its lethality towards orthodox Jews must have diet or other non-social causes.

[PlaneMan]

Just had a date for my 5th jab.  Week tomorrow.

I’ll be on first name terms with the staff before long!

[PlaneMan]

Had my 5th Jab earlier and I feel rotten now. Extremely tired and all my joints and muscles are killing me.

[Ed P]

Sorry it has affected you so much. While getting jabbed beats getting Covid, a friend of ours had a bad 24 hours following a third Moderna jab. His blood pressure crashed the next day and he had a precautionary overnight in hospital as a result.

[JayCeeDee]

I made a stupid mistake with my 5th jab – so far I’ve been on the AZ, but due to brain fog or whatever, I mentioned that one of my previous may have been the Moderna, I did know that I couldn’t take the Pfizer for sure. Well, I got given the Moderna on the Saturday at 9am and that was it. By 4pm I was feeling like sh*t. Wasn’t eating – that alone is unusual for me – felt like I was about to throw up my lunch and was starting to shiver. This was a low level version of the reaction to my Lymphoma antibody treatment. All that was missing was the shakes and temperature spikes and fitting. It might have been a good idea to take my blood pressure as I have a home monitor, but that was the last thing on my mind.

I decided to get myself off to bed, with the intention of getting up for dinner later. No way at all. I stayed in bed through the night and best part of  Sunday morning. My next meal was dinner that night.

I checked up on my vax history and found that, in fact, all my previous jabs had been AZ, as will be all my future ones!! I neither know, nor care, whether it was just a reaction to the Moderna or an unlikely combination reaction with the ( non-live ) shingles jab but I will be avoiding a repeat at all costs.

Good luck PM – hope your feeling a bit better now.

[Ed P]

Supposedly research has shown that mixing Pfizer/Az jabs with a later Moderna dose gives improved resistance to Covid.

Unfortunately until you try there is no real way of knowing if you will get a bad reaction to Moderna. We had three doses of Pfizer before receiving a 4th (half dose) of Moderna, and luckily we had no real aftereffects (except as usual my wife had a sore arm).

[PlaneMan]

Thanks both.

I’m still rough but a bit better.

It’s hard to tell if it’s an actual reaction to the Jab or just my arthritis /fibromyalgia playing up coincidentally.

As I’ve felt like this after them all it must be the Jab. Makes no difference which one I have.

Could be a lot worse.

[Ed P]

Looks as though the ‘vulnerable ones’ can look forward to having six-monthly jabs for the rest of their lives!

The US are being plagued by Omicron variants that evade both vaccination and previous Covid infection.  Ars link. 

These variants are probably around in the UK as well as an elderly friend has just recovered from Covid despite being ‘protected’ by four vaccinations/boosters.

The world is going to have to find ways of living with this disease. The only winners are going to be the Pharmaceutical companies and their share holders.

[Ed P]

‘Living with Covid’ is now the Government’ strategy for the disease.  As a result the Government is slowly down-playing information about Covid, and despite the UK infection rate being quite high, ONS data will only be published once a week in future, and it would not surprise me to see that drop even further – maybe to area ‘poo’ testing data. (see recent news item with respect to the Polio outbreak in London).

The Government policy document is quite a long but an interesting read, and quite biased in places to give a positive spin on any mishandling that took place – read MD in Private Eye to get procurement and the bits swept under the carpet. It does not for example contrast UK mishandling via ‘Mushroom Matt’ with the honest straight-forward way it was handled in Sweden.

Link to policy document

[keith with the teef]

Currently on my 3rd infection.

Yesterday I was in a fever mode and proper sweaty and all tucked up in bed, but on a plus side I finally got some attention with cups of hot lemon and honey. Today I am good and am going to walk down to asda and treat myself to a custard slice.

Sadly I was at a funeral on Tuesday and no doubt they have all got it now.

[Ed P]

I think there is more Covid around here than at the height of the second wave! I see that most people seem to be infected on the Isle of White and other holiday places.

We are seeing some potentially vulnerable friends this weekend so we will do a lateral flow test the day before.  I suppose we should do it on the day, but we wanted to give them a chance to cancel the roast!

[keith with the teef]

@edp. Good call

I was supposed to see a buddy for a pie and pint on Wednesday. Feeling under the weather that morning I did the test and had to cancel the pie and pint and just look at the glorious weather. What  a barstool.

[JayCeeDee]

The stats seem to have disappeared from the news and media in general. Boris puffing and fluffing about the speed of business recovery etc, not wanting to put a downer on it by telling us just how bad it still was. I see so many people without masks when I’m out shopping ( masked ) also so many shops now have taken away the hand/trolley sanitisers and screens. Are they really surprised it’s still raging, if not rampant!!

Maybe now Boris is on the outs there’ll be a common sense re-assessment of what the general public are told by whoever influences things from here on!!

[Author]

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