[The VFM Addict]

Today, 1 February, is the first day that the total number of recovered individuals to-date in China has exceeded the number of deaths to-date.    While this is obviously good news it must be put into context.    For the death rate to be 2% there will need to be 49 recovered patients for every dead patient.  So we have a long way to go yet before we will have a fix on the actual rate.   The death rate for SARS was originally vastly underestimated let’s hope that is not the case with 2019-nCoV.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Bob Williams]

Latest info from a Hull mate is that the two cases were Chinese students studying at an academy. They have been in the UK for a while apparently.

Not totally convinced that this true.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Richard]

Bob, News reports this morning state that the two a post graduate and a relative arrived in York on Wednesday and were seen by the hazmat suit club members and admitted to hospital that evening. They were stated to have not been back to the University or anywhere else. Graduating is usually some time after the students have ceased their time in the University. Perhaps this was a pity for them, had they not returned home only to return later, they would have missed the problem. Sadly, life is full of such upsets.

[Ed P]

Genome research indicates that a bat coronavirus recombined with an unidentified snake virus, and the product virus was then probably in the snake population for some little while. Apparently the act of viral recombination assisted its later transfer to humans.

The latest genome research shows that probably only one person originated this transfer from Snake to human, and that all subsequent infections have been human-human with the majority initially being other people in the Wuhan wet market. This research indicates that the first infection happened some time towards the end of November 2019 with the first signs of a novel outbreak being detected in late December.

There are still a lot of ‘probablys’ at the moment, and it is fair to say that other than a high probability that a bat virus is at the start of the event chain,  the definitive origins of the novel coronavirus have not yet been established.

 

[Ed P]

The official advice on the virus can be found here.

At the moment this advice is for people travelling from China, and is of the ‘containment’ variety. I assume if the virus gets established in this country the advice will change.

[Richard]

I found the official advice an easy read and for the most part very sensible. I was also mindful how easily it would transition into domestic advice in the undesirable event of such a change being required. For the most part I guess that we will now settle back into wait and see mode with only those at the sharp end of events being directly affected.

The supply of electronics might become affected if the problems persist for any period of time. However, that it hardly cause for wailing and lamentations in the streets. Most people will be able to hang onto their items for a little longer and for those whose device suffers a terminal failure I suspect replacements will still exist.

For the moment I see some inmates of our prisons as being a greater threat to life and limb with little prospect that they will ever be defanged.

[JayCeeDee]

Richard wrote:

For the moment I see some inmates of our prisons as being a greater threat to life and limb with little prospect that they will ever be defanged.

I found it extremely ironic when the Governments’ representatives say that little can be done about people already sentenced and they will be open to release under the existing terms, as has been shown for its crass stupidity with this latest idiot.

The general consensus seems to be that nothing can be done to retrospectively change the law and alter the pre-existing conditions.

Wasn’t that precisely what was done to the WASPI Women??!!

[StevieP]

At least I know what it is like when they put you in a room all by yourself and isolate you from ether giving something to someone or you getting it. I’m already 3 weeks in to at least a 7 week “sentence”. But while I know that some of those who have been “detained” will cope admirably others will struggle. At least my family can visit at any time day or night albeit dressed in plastic and rubber so I can have a direct conversation with them, although if you count WhatsApp I am now quite a prolific social media user. All I can say I hope all those in that situation get cleared and carry on their lives. If  it does get out into the wild though I can see very serious problems on the horion.

[Ed P]

When (no if about it) Coronavirus becomes established here then we may want to try and take preventative steps.

Most research shows that surgical masks are fairly useless in preventing illness (but they do stop you passing it on). N95 or N100 respirator masks are effective but not easy to wear.

This research published in Nature shows that there may be a middle ground which increases the effectiveness of surgical masks and that is to soak the middle layer of the masks in brine. Nature link

I guess if push came to shove, soaking the whole mask might work, but be less comfortable to wear.

[StevieP]

“The salt coating on the fiber surface dissolves upon exposure to virus aerosols and recrystallizes during drying, destroying the pathogens”.

As some who wears a mask constantly I can tell you now they never dry out. Condensation from your breath makes them moist almost constantly. I normally carry at least ten and change them all the time. So I can’t see how that will work. As you say the only way is by wearing a respirator type mask.

[Ed P]

As is often the case, scientific papers are written by scientists who are not very good at getting their points across.

I THINK that this paper actually has two findings:

1. A salt coated filter protects their user from flu. This acts by either weakening/deactivating the flu virus or killing it. (The mouse experiment)
2. Brine coated filters may then be sterilised for disposal by drying them.

[StevieP]

Ahh, understand now, the bit that I quoted is total rubbish. Also masks have two sides, you change the side depeding on whether its you that are infectious or other people are and you are protecting yourself.

[Richard]

Yes, I had heard the same comments about the cheap, almost throw-a-way masks. Their poor fit makes them almost useless to filter inbound air. I agree that a barrier layer inside the mask can help, I have seen various ideas proposed but care is needed if you use brine as the hard edges wetted by brine are likely to cause skin problems. Such multilayer items are much more expensive to make and do need great care when they are used. One mistake and they are rendered almost totally ineffective.

The best first line is greatly improved hygiene, that means hand washing, instantly disposing of used handkerchiefs in safe conditions, avoiding crowds and self managing especially if there is any suspicion of infection. Vaseline used in the nose can achieve two things, help to avoid excess drying and stick items on the way in, it is one of the many recommendations that I have previously been given by the ear nose and throat team treating my established condition. Once more hygiene is vital.

However, it is doubtful if the idea of dressing up like extras from a low budget disaster film will catch on, however dire the prognosis becomes. Even improving hygiene will be a battle, but we can but hope.

[Les.]

Yesterday’s infections numbers showed a significant flattening off. Today’s continue the trend. It does seem the draconian containment measures taking in China are now showing real results. They may have been slow at the start (which is now admitted), but they are well into it now. One new hospital opened, the second on its way. The realisation that their economy will be hit. I can see a serious attempt to clean up the source spots for this sort of thing. Introduction of real hygiene legislation and woe betide those who ignore it. The world may well become safer on the back of this.

Edp, I DO NOT think this will become endemic in the west, sincerely hope not.

Les.

[The VFM Addict]

Sorry, Les, but the evidence suggests there’s more chance I’ll win the EuroMillions tonight than 2019-nCoV failing to become a worldwide pandemic.   Many experts suspect the true number of infected individuals is in excess of 200,000 in China.   If so there is less than zero chance of containment.

Only the worst cases seek medical care and are officially ‘diagnosed’.   This probably means that the virus is not as deadly as even the worst current estimates but and its a big BUT even those who weather infection can still infect others who cannot survive it.    The Chinese people are terrified of mentioning symptoms.   It could be normal flu.   The trouble is though that if they you are even remotely suspected of having it and normal flu is enough to provide suspect symptoms, you are forcibly dragged off to quarantine and housed with those who quite possibly do.   Because individuals are not being isolated in solitary confinement.   So in a way having a cold or normal flu can easily be fatal because you end up forcibly housed in a hotbed 2019-nCoV rich environment.    No wonder Chinese folks are keeping quite about flu like symptoms.

Funny thing is we are proving that in the UK we will do the same.   Those Brits evacuated from Wuhan are not isolated individually.    Its long been said that the easiest place to catch an infection is in a hospital that is about to become even truer.  When something like this goes pandemic its amazing how far it travels.   Even in 1918 when there was far less travel than today Spanish Flu raked Alaska.

For now its a rear guard action of delaying tactics.   Hold its growth down as much as possible in the hope that a vaccine or an effective antiviral treatment can be developed before the major damage occurs.

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[StevieP]

Couldn’t agree more Richard, hygiene will go a long long way in preventing more widespread infection.

[Richard]

VFM, let us try to not become too paranoid. Those dragged out of China were not removed because they were carriers or infected, rather it was because they were at risk. It is true that someone was found to be unwell after the second flight and was promptly removed to a treatment centre. I have not heard if they had the sniffles or the disaster film bug. For the rest there was, and as far as I know, still no reason to isolated them from all contact with other humans. In fact to do so when there is no clear reason, could well be more dangerous to their health and increase any risk of a problem. They are not in hospital, but in isolation under supervision. I agree that hospitals are not health camps, I can upset people calling them the bug-exchange, or  ‘death-camp’.

I have to assume that, having lived with the threat for some time that they will stick to all the hygiene and care rules as though their lives depended upon doing so.

[Ed P]

I have already stated my belief that a pandemic is likely. The big problem with ‘Snake’ flu is that it is infectious even when the patient has no flu symptoms. This makes any containment (except draconian) moot.

On the other hand I agree with @vfm the mortality rate does not look as bad as feared, it is currently running at similar rates (2+%) to ‘normal’ flu outbreaks. It is however a bit more selective in that it is reported to be picking off smokers with compromised immune systems (normally elderly ones).

[Les.]

VFM et al, it seems you are correct. Today’s graph (a third format layout) shows yesterday and day before were a wee bit anomalous. Back up to looking natural again. Of the 493 deaths quoted, only 14 are outside Hubei province. Thinking about it, with total of 25 thousand, there is a long way to go before the “feedstock” reduction limits growth. Of course the localised restrictions must help.

By coincidence or otherwise, “Bargain Hunt” on BBC1 yesterday whilst eating midday meal had a small section about the self isolating Derbyshire village during the 1666 plague. A repeat, so maybe chosen as topical.

Les.

 

[The VFM Addict]

Figures Update

Often of late initial figures re number of new cases are incomplete only finalising a day or two later.   The figures for 3Feb to 4Feb have now been updated and rather than showing a flattening off now show the fastest rate of growth yet seen in China.

If the growth is like this in a state both capable of using and actually using the most extreme measures to contain this virus, then from where I stand the call is surely made – This virus for all practical purposes cannot be contained.   To me that means worldwide pandemic guaranteed unless a vaccine or effective antiviral appear pretty damn pronto.

APOLOGIES TO LES

You posted while I was typing.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

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