[Ed P]

‘In the deep Purple’.  I frequently browse through the interactive Covid map out of morbid curiosity, and the knowledge that my Covid immunity is rapidly being eroded.link

However, today I was struck by the map overview that shows Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland  were all in the ‘deep purple’ danger zone. What I could not understand was that these territories had all been far more conservative in their lifting of restrictions but were getting hammered by infections, whereas profligate BoJo land is muddling along except in a few areas.

[PlaneMan]

I had my 3rd vaccination today, Pfizer again. Feel really sore, stiff and exhausted. Same as the last 2 really.

The staff were brilliant, St Johns volunteers doing the shepherding went above and beyond to help anyone that needed it including making sure I had the shortest route all the way through the process which was much appreciated.

[Ed P]

Got my third jab, but also got informed that I had a Long Covid symptom (dating back to  Covid alpha in February 2020). Apart from some breathlessness after exercise I feel fairly fit, but it is a bit worrying that people can be stricken 18 months after the event. I just hope that the rash of infections for those in their in the teens and twenties does not bring them any life restricting problems.

[JayCeeDee]

I eventually got my third jab Saturday before last. This was after about three weeks of pro-active chasing for it.

25th Sept I went for my flu jab and booster- well I got the flu jab but as I needed the AZ and they were only doing the Pfizer, the on-site GP said no and I went onto a list for when the AZ became available. Heard nothing the following week so I then booked on 119 for Tuesday, went to the centre, went in and was told still only Pfizer, check with your GP. Rang GP, ignored the recorded message about them not knowing anything about boosters and spoke to them, filling them in. Later that day they phoned back and could only suggest I try the NHS ‘grab-a-jab’ website. Tried on there but they showed my local jab-sites as not having any AZ.

Heard over the next weekend  from a friend in the NHS that ‘on the grapevine’ there was supplies of AZ in the area, so rang 119 for an appointment, again on the Tuesday. Turned up and went in to be told that all doses held were allocated doses booked via our GP. Unofficially told that if I turned up on the Saturday early, they  would ensure they got something into my arm!! Visited GP and was told on reception that I would be put on the list that they held.

Come Saturday I went to the site and was put through for a jab. Only delay was whether they would use a booster dose, or as I was marginally immuno-compromised from the Lymphoma, they would use a full third dose. I got the full third dose.👍👍 Finally.

Throughout, on a personal level, all the NHS staff that I encountered were pleasant, tried, to the best of their capabilities to get me sorted, understood my situation, but the system just failed all round.

I still haven’t heard from my GP’s list, two weeks later!!

[Ed P]

I can appreciate that GPs are worn out, and in need of a rest, but it is getting really hard to get attention, even from really good practices.

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

I can appreciate that GPs are worn out, and in need of a rest, but it is getting really hard to get attention, even from really good practices.

5 years ago there were public meetings that overflowed the venues, getting together to complain about ours. They went into a programme of improvements that scratched the surface, got more Advanced Practitioners, Practise Nurses, Healthcare Assistants and the like, but were still losing GP’s. Plus there is one expensive locum GP all day Mon – Thur and 2 all day on Friday!!

Just pre/early-covid it was sold on to an ( apparently ) good company – Invicta Health. The CQC ratings have gone from an overall ” Needs Improvement” to an overall “Good”, but all the patients in my circle of friends/acquaintances say that it still needs improving. I do have friends that work there who say that they are all  trying as hard as they can but resources are still lacking, ie funding and GP’s. It’s probably the same story all over, even worse on the, hopefully, tail-end of Covid.

[Ed P]

Any one else notice that we skipped Chi to get to Omicron – that really is WHO political correctness gone mad!

[JayCeeDee]

I saw that mentioned – either on the news ( not sure ) or, more likely, Have I Got News for You!! They were very understanding of the natural tendency to allocate it to China, in a ‘full circle’ type of way!!

[Dave Rice]

What happens after Omega? Switch to Latin?

[Ed P]

Dunno what comes after Omega, but they have been a bit prolific in their use of Greek descriptors. They seemed to have burnt a lot of Greek letters with variants that were only of passing interest due to Kent’s Delta displacing most of them. The Wiki details them, but I must confess to never having seen any previous mention of Iota the New York strain.

[JayCeeDee]

The first time that I heard Omicron mentioned, I joked and asked wasn’t it one of the Transformers – then hastily added “I hope to God it isn’t!!!”. After all there’s nothing worse than a variant of a variant.

Also when they called it the Kent variant I said to the wife that due to Kent’s proximity to the Channel it had probably been brought in on one of our many new residents, rather than a ‘homebrew’.

[Ed P]

As the Kent strain appeared to be a descendant of the Indian variant, you can probably lay the while smear against Bojo who  delayed putting India on the red-list as he wanted to go there and cut a trade deal in time for a by-election or something. As a result a lot of Hindu were able to return from their religious trip to the Ganges without testing or going into isolation.

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

As a result a lot of Hindu were able to return from their religious trip to the Ganges without testing or going into isolation.

If they survived the Ganges, Covid probably didn’t worry them too much – they were probably carriers rather than sufferers!!

[Ed P]

Yet another floating Petri-dish case has demonstrated just how good Cruise Ships are at nurturing and propagating nasties.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/12/omicron-suspected-in-cruise-ship-outbreak-in-new-orleans-17-cases-so-far/

[Ed P]

How soon before BoJo’s apology for a Government is forced to do ‘something’?

I’ve done an analysis of the easily available South African and European/UK data and the following is what I can glean and where necessary make SWAG predictions. (SWAG== Straight Wild-A*sed-Guess)

a) Omicron Covid appears to be three to four times more infectious than Delta (i.e. four to five times more infectious than the original Covid. The Government is soon going to be reeling from the numbers of reported cases, and even the statistics office is soon going to introduce a new category where over 1.5% of the population is sick in any area of 7000 people.  The impact on the transport industry and other industries is easily noticed with train cancellations and empty shelves  due to staff shortages, and Brexit impacts.

b) Omicron appears to be about 30-40% less severe in terms of hospitalisations than Delta, so given a level playing field Omicron hospitalisations will be similar to those of Delta. It is not possible to tell if those needing hospitalisation are otherwise medically compromised or mainly anti-vaxxers. (Singapore makes anti-vaxxers pay for Covid treatment!)

c) Once in hospital people die at roughly the same rate as those did with Delta. The stats give no clue as to why this should be so, but I’d guess that it applies to those who enter hospital with their health being additionally compromised by other conditions such as diabetes etc. However we are getting to peak winter conditions, so flu and other things will almost certainly result in over-burdened hospitals. As a result, overall hospital deaths can be expected to soar due to equipment and a staff situation, where everyone must be close to burn-out and not too resistant to general infection themselves.

There are however big unknowns in trying to make such a comparison, as you need to be able to compare the rollouts of a  very effective triple-jab against the somewhat delayed (6 months versus a probably more optimum four months) second jab roll-out and differences in effectiveness of one jab versus two and two versus three. It also assumes no change in the percentage of anti-vaxxers.

This means on one hand that a potentially horrendous situation will unroll, and on the other hand, one where a quick triple jab rollout changes the whole game. On the downside there is a scientific downside to any rollout delays which cause some people to simultaneously get both Delta and Omicron infections with the potential for mutations such that a far more deadly form emerges. Against these apocalyptic scenarios, it may turn out that hospitals can cope and the infection peak will be short so achieving effective vaccination by infection — supposedly the Dominic Cummings preferred route to herd immunity and the reason behind his blue-funk trip to Northumberland, also supposedly what was allowed to happen during the Delta wave.

My guess is that the Government will have to do something, but will be held back from any Dutch draconian lock-down moves due to potentially damaging economic impacts. My guess would be that we will see some minor restrictions, an extension of mandatory face masks, work from home and a lots of BoJo rhetoric and meaningless bluster, imploring people to always test before partying and be responsible by isolating if infected. Kids are out of school at the moment but I think they will bring back face masks for them before they go back, and this may go down to primary school levels. They will try to avoid committing to financial support measures, but I think they will find these hard to avoid. The hit on the lower paid and the North will be severe, and cause the Government a lot of angst and give Labour a lot of areas of weakness to attack. (The North because they are lagging behind on infection numbers so it will start hitting them at the worst possible time. No predictions for Wales/Scotland  or N.Ireland as they have already anticipated some of my predicted BoJo measures, but I do not known the 3-jab and earlier 2-jab stats for these areas)

They will hope to gain more time to triple vaccinate as many as possible to try to avoid a nightmare scenario with  peak infections of three to five thousand cases/day.

It would be nice if the Government came clean with the apparent situation, rather than making us guess. Imo this is a time for an extremely dishonest Government to display a bit of honesty. It is quite acceptable to say that something is a best guess, and is the best they came make based on limited information. In the time honoured words plan for the worst, but hope for the best, with the optimum somewhere between.

If you plan to meet friends and family over the Xmas/New Year period, I’d suggest you put in your orders for lateral flow test kits asap. and suggest that they do the same, as I think some of my predictions will come true.

[JayCeeDee]

I managed to get a lateral flow test 7-pack last Thursday, it would appear that was one of the last for a few days.

Actually, as I’m on the Clinically Vulnerable register, I got a very interesting email this morning from the NHS. I copy most of it below.

 

Important information about new treatments for coronavirus.
The NHS is using new treatments for coronavirus. Your medical records show that you might be suitable for these treatments if a PCR test confirms that you have coronavirus.

These treatments need to be given quickly after you start to feel unwell. They can stop you from getting seriously ill. More information: https://www.nhs.uk/CoronavirusTreatments

You should:
Have a PCR test kit ready at home.
Take a PCR test if you get coronavirus symptoms.
If the PCR test confirms that you have coronavirus: the NHS will call you to tell you how you might get a treatment.
Coronavirus treatments can help you if you are ill, but vaccination is still the best protection for you and your loved ones.

1. Have a PCR test kit ready at home
NHS Test & Trace are sending you a PCR coronavirus test kit to keep so that you can get tested quickly if you have any coronavirus symptoms.

This kit will be sent to the address that you have provided to the NHS. Tell your GP as soon as possible if your address has changed. NHS Test & Trace can send replacement tests.

Call 119 for advice, selecting the option for Test & Trace, if:

you have not received a PCR test by 10 January 2022
you develop symptoms before your PCR test arrives
you lose your PCR test or it has any damage or missing parts.
2. Take a PCR test if you get coronavirus symptoms
Use your PCR test if you develop any coronavirus symptoms, even if they are mild: a high temperature, a new continuous cough (coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours), a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste.

If you get coronavirus symptoms and don’t have a PCR test kit at home, you can still get a PCR test by phoning 119 or visiting https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test.

When registering a PCR test, it is very important that you enter your NHS number and postcode correctly. This lets you get your test result and allows the NHS to contact you about treatment if you have coronavirus.

3. If the PCR test confirms that you have coronavirus
If the PCR test shows that you have got coronavirus, the NHS will contact you within 24 hours to arrange a telephone appointment with a health professional.

If you are not contacted about treatment within 24 hours of your positive PCR test result, please contact your GP surgery or call 111. They can make an urgent referral.

 

I just hope that, in the worst scenario, there is a quick turnaround of the PCR tests!!

[Ed P]

Hopefully you will not get Covid, but should you show signs do try and get the Pfizer anti-vital as Merck’s Molnupirivir is not much cop. link

Unfortunately, like the Oxford vaccine we bought a lot of Molnupirivir before its ineffectiveness became obvious. However, I suppose 30% effectiveness is better than over-dosing on  Ivermectin,  the sometimes deadly  horse de-wormer and head-lice treatment that American Right-Wing Republicans favour!

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

Hopefully you will not get Covid, but should you show signs do try and get the Pfizer anti-vital as Merck’s Molnupirivir is not much cop. link

Amen to that!!! The likelihood is that they will steer me away from the Pfizer pill as they did with the jab. My adverse reaction to my first dose of anti-body treatment for Lymphoma has ensured that they are super cautious. My first two jabs were AZ as well as my third ( full ) dose.

Our son is coming back to stay over Christmas – away from the petri dish that is London!! He has been doing LF tests right through. The previous high for the daily infection rate in the South East per 100000- off the BBC charts – was around 1200 – 1300, last night the national high ( in Lambeth ) was around 2450. The current numbers are just shocking and yet yesterday, I went into our local Post Office ( in the Co op ) and ahead of me in the queue were three 20- 25 year old lads all without masks and only one of them was even posting anything!! I gave them a very wide berth!!

[Ed P]

Some American friends popped by for a drink and a chat. (They had come over to see all their grandchildren at Christmas). They are Democrats but were still blighted by Trump attitudes as they were nearly as blasé as your twenty year olds. The risk to us was however small as they were triple jabbed and up to date on PCR, and LFT tests thanks to our border check requirements.

Hopefully they will avoid catching Covid during their three week stay with their children. If they are unlucky and do catch Covid it could prove extremely costly for them as the US had put a ‘do not visit’, Covid risk notice against the UK before they flew. In my experience I suspect their health insurer will try to wriggle out of any treatment claims as a result.

If the attitude of my friends is typical, I suspect that Omicron may have a far more devastating effect on the US than the UK. It could also ensure that the Democrats stay in power for years due to the Republican anti-vaxx conspiracy theories eliminating a large swathe of voters.

[Ed P]

According to the Beeb, France have cancelled Merck Molnupirivir because it is basically “espece de merde”.

[Author]

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