[Ed P]

Something I think we will be hearing more about is Rt, the effective rate of transmission. Ro is an absolute historical number whereas Rt is a predictive number, The maths is somewhat hard for those without a background in stats, but it uses the same sort of Bayesian predictors that your GP uses when making a diagnosis or prognosis. In this case however, Rt is sort-of like a moving average on which a curve is fit to make a prediction of whether controlling measures are working and can be relaxed. It also could be used to have different rules (say) in London and the North of England. Rt also has value in cutting through the medical BS we hear each night about it being difficult to know where we are until its all over and the quick cull decision makers long and safely retired.

If you are familiar with Python, this link shows how it can be used for US data, and is documented enough to give insights on how the program works and how it could be modified to use the ONS data (section 10 would need the URL changed and the data format modified to suit the spreadsheet data)

[Bob Williams]

I find it more than annoying that infection and death rates are being listed as higher “in the Midlands”. That is a very wide area, from heavily urban West Midlands to East Midlands, and very rural Lincolnshire is included in that area category. I think we should be included as East England, along with East Anglia. Our infection rates are far below even Nottingham. Whenever the media speak about ‘The Midlands’ they invariably mean the West Midlands. Population densities become increasingly less dense, the further you travel East from Brum and the Black Country. And West, come to think of it.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Testing the crew of the USN aircraft carrier – Theodore Roosevelt that is disabled by Covid-19 confirms that 60% of covid-19 cases are asymptomatic and gives even more weight to the need for the universal wearing of face masks.

Reuters Link

[Dave Rice]

I wonder if its the lack of face masks rather than their efficacy that’s guiding things?

[Ed P]

Stupid if it is that reason,  as Sadiq Khan stated that the objective is to stop asymptotic people talking/shouting/singing/coughing their viruses on to others. All the Government need do is to promulgate the home-made CDC mask or washable four cloth layer  equivalents

I think it is more about loss of face. Our medical ‘experts’ and those of the WHO  have been ignoring evidence from elsewhere for far too long and now need a battery of evidence to make them see sense.

We are now on track for the highest covid death-rate in Europe, but I guess these early deaths make good economic sense to Cummins and Mushroom Matt.

[Ed P]

If we follow the German model outlined in this pdf, Cummings/Hancock will be looking to infect about 15% of the population with covid-19 before we have a phased return to near normality.

Currently we have about 103,000 confirmed cases, add 10% for care homes etc, and multiply by 1.5 for asymptomatic cases only gets us to about 0.2% of the population.

A long way to go, no wonder the Government discourages face masks!

[Les.]

My mother used to say “It is an ill wind which blows no good”. She meant that there is usually some small good associated.

With so many at home, some are catching up on stuff long since in round tuit pile. As you probably all know, I developed a rotary converter to produce 415v three phase a few years ago. It sells steadily, probably better than one per week over the last 7 years. my “bit of good” is  big increase in sales. 4 since Friday as well as the two earlier last week. I just hope I stay clear and last the crisis out to feel the full benefits.

Isle of Man update. from this coming Friday, restrictions will slacked a little, namely construction and (plant) nurseries. Not sure if the latter will be “click and collect”, but I guess there will be a pent up response.

Our confirmed cases now up to just 300. Nine have died, the bulk being “in the community”, which is a weasily way of saying in a Care Home.

I am attaching a graph showing the results, together with the”theoretical graphs”. (big hump, controlled smaller hump, and very low hump). More importantly, the daily numbers (light blue crosses) and some averages in green. Not easy to follow without expanding, but it looks good from where I stand.

[Les.]

I will try that again.

[Les.]

No idea why my attachments won’t attach. The first was a pdf, the second a jpeg, both less than 50 Kbs

Les.

[Les.]

I suppose the easiest way is to link the originating page:-

https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/latest-updates/

It is more difficult to see than the one i prepared. I had copied the image into DRAW, expanded and exported as a pdf.

Les.

[Ed P]

Looks as though the Cummings cull has succeeded beyond expectations. According to the ONS UK deaths are at an all time high and TEN THOUSAND  more than is normal at this time of year. As the WHO have calculated we will need twenty times as many infected for full herd immunity, Cummings could go down in Godwin’s Law  infamy by the time this has all finished.

According to the Guardian the Government spin doctors are working flat out to try and rewrite history — shades of Trump! :yahoo:

[Ed P]

Although this article by Jonathan Kay is not by his admission ‘scientific’ it is extremely well researched. The article deals with ‘superspreaders’ and the events that are the most dangerous from a covid-19 perspective. It is an interesting read, but to précis his findings, the most dangerous events and places are crowds with a lot of noisy shouting, singing, coughing and sneezing taking place. A football match with people singing their team songs is about as just about as dangerous a place as anywhere. In contrast crowded cinemas, and opera performances are pretty safe.

Imo he has identified an area worthy for detailed research as it could be a vital tool towards easing lock-downs in a meaningful way. It also shows why mask wearing is a positive contribution toward slowing the transmission of covid-19.

[Bob Williams]

I have always had to be careful with ‘expelled droplets’. I have something called Barrett’s Oesophagus, which resulted from a hiatus hernia and severe reflux. This coats the gullet with a material akin to the stomach lining, which reduces the width of the gullet, traps food particles within the upper gullet, causing heavy mucous and coughing. I am never far from a box of tissues and a bin!

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

The indications are that social distancing measures will go on until the end of the year. Will this result in mullets and  ‘Jesus’ cuts being fashionable again?  It seems that men will be forced to choose between a back to the 60s look or a Buzz cut.

I chose the latter and I now sport a uniform sun-tanned/sun-bleached one mm stubble.

[Ed P]

That well-known and respected ‘science’ journal, and Trump emulator, The Daily Telegraph has just revealed that French people who smoke Gauloise or Gitanes are four times less likely to get covid-19,

I thought maybe the DT had picked up an Avril 1 story, but apparently the French are going hell bent down the correlation != causation route without a qualm. They are completely ignoring a contrary explanation that everyone else keeps many metres away from the bad breath of a French smoker!

To put it in perspective a Chinese study showed that smokers who caught the virus were 14 times more likely to need ICU treatment, which in the UK would translate as 7 times more likely to die.

Resumption of your old bad habits is not recommended, and if you do take it up again remember that French tobacco is markedly different from the Virginian stuff. I remember in the 70s that they boasted that their non-toasted stuff caused less lung cancer — the French tobacco industry has a track record!

However, maybe Trump can add it to his bleach injections and UV light up the rectum ‘cures’.

[Bob Williams]

On a brighter note Ed: soon there may be a lot less French people. :yahoo:

I once got into a fight with a French soldier on exercise in Larzac. He was deliberately blowing his foul-smelling crap into my face in a village Bistro. I told him that I would punch out his lights if he continued and asked my mate Phil (French mother) to translate. The guy sneered as only the French can, so I decked him. To my surprise, he got up again, so I gave him the benefit of my upper forehead with what in my birth city of Nottingham is called a “Carlton Kiss”. This time he did not rise again.

I was a bit surprised to learn that I had downed a French para from Légion étrangère. I had thought they were tough. Obviously overrated, or the debilitating effect of excessive French tobacco intake and the cheap, nasty Bistro Red.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[johnbarry]

Boris is back today?

Cheers
John

[JayCeeDee]

When I couldn’t get on my PC, I either used my iPad, ( much easier for these fingers ) or as a last resort, my phone, to access the site.

I hate using the TV for anything, the interface is so reminiscent of PC’s in the 90’s/00’s or games consoles.

The wife is using YouTube on the TV as part of her exercise regime, and I’ve found it easier to do all the accessing and setting up her videos on the PC and then using the TV, logged in to my account.

[johnbarry]

Maybe just browse on the TV then.

ooppss

I put that message  in my sig, I didn’t expect a reply, I willl remove it as not to take over the virus or any) thread.

Cheers
John

[Ed P]

I find it is extremely irritating that this Government continues not to treat us like adults, and just shovels out pabulum and stupid mantras . I’m coming to the conclusion that they are an incompetent bunch who are just playing for time in the absence of any strategy for a phased removal of a lock-down.

It is even more annoying when BoJo claims to have participated in the difficulties of social distancing when it was pretty darned obvious that they were playing the usual ‘The rules for the plebs do not apply to us’ game. At least BoJo got taught a small lesson for his rule flouting.

[Author]

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