[RSB]

Made Sticky

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[Ed P]

The Scientific American gives the happy news that Snake Flu is probably here to stay just like all the many varieties of Bird Flu.

The article also says that the induction period between infection and getting very ill may be as short as four days, which is why US experts think it impossible to contain the virus by tracking contacts.

Now I guess we just have to wait to see how the virus mutates within the human community – sometimes they become relatively benign as was the case with Scarlet Fever, sometimes the converse.

The probably good news is that provided the Chinese and South Asian governments close Wet Markets and ban the butchering of snakes to stop new flu varieties forming, it should be easier to develop a vaccine to eliminate it.

[The VFM Addict]

Not sure we can ever be fast of foot enough to deal with this one, Ed.

This quy’s twitter feed is worth following.    He knows his stuff and his background qualifies his comments as highly reputable.

2019-nCoV is unlike anything ever seen before.   It is a new genus and its middle sequencing is unlike any coronavirus seen before.    It mutates/evolves at a very fast rate.   The RNA sequences of 2019-nCoV isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other (Lancet), powerful evidence of the virus evolving rapidly.    It seems that it cannot be excluded that this virus was engineered as it seems unlikely to have occurred recently at random.

However, this virus may be an RNA virus; that is, a virus that has RNA as its genetic material rather than DNA.  RNA viruses have a high mutation rate which allows them to change properties very quickly.    Heck we’re dealing with a Shape Shifter…..LOL

The current growth rate in infected individuals is dramatically exponential.    If this doesn’t go pandemic on a scale greater than the Spanish Flu of 2018 then I’ll eat my hat (after disinfecting it first of course).

I’d like to see the actual specifics of the current deaths.   Did most die of the secondary bacterial pneumonia that is the most frequent and common complication of such respiratory viruses?   If so then percentage deaths per infected individuals will ultimately be less with this than with the 1918 Spanish Flu which occurred in the pre-antibiotics age.   That said the total numbers will be higher because the world population is far, far greater now.   At least 50 Million died of Spanish Flu.

As regards secondary bacterial pneumonia – It is just a thought but many here are entitled to a free pneumonia jab because of their existing conditions and if you haven’t had one it may be wise to have one immediately; it can’t do any harm.

I am now making all provisions to go out as little as often.   Though my fears for myself are low.   My own immune system seems to be startlingly fast of foot against respiratory viruses.   I’ve not had a cold or flu for over 30 years despite often being surrounded by those with them.    However, my other half wouldn’t stand a chance so I don’t want to bring home a fatal present.

As an aside – For those familiar with the Fermi Paradox I wonder if the the powerful dynamics of evolution, which ultimately lead to intelligent life developing, also inevitably lead to the evolution of a biological organism that wipes it out?    I’m not saying that 2019-nCoV is it because some people are surviving 2019-nCoV.    I’m simply hypothesising – Could it possibly be that the Great Filter if one exists is actually biological and derives quite logically of the very same ingenuity of living organisms that led to intelligent life evolving in the first place?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[JayCeeDee]

 

The VFM Addict wrote:

As an aside – For those familiar with the Fermi Paradox I wonder if the the powerful dynamics of evolution, which ultimately lead to intelligent life developing, also inevitably lead to the evolution of a biological organism that wipes it out?    I’m not saying that 2019-nCoV is it because some people are surviving 2019-nCoV.    I’m simply hypothesising – Could it possibly be that the Great Filter if one exists is actually biological and derives quite logically of the very same ingenuity of living organisms that led to intelligent life evolving in the first place?

Que??????

[Ed P]

Not sure about ‘engineered’. Such things are possible, but early DNA analysis identified snake sequences – hence Snake Flu, and the Chinese have been quick to close the Wet Markets where snakes and other things are kept and slaughtered alongside chickens, pigs etc. (The Chinese like meat to be super fresh!). As both pigs and birds together with humans are flu vectors it is quite possible that bad hygiene mixed up snake fluids with those of birds/pigs or coughing/sneezing humans.

A Chinese wet market is quite a horrific place to visit and would quickly turn most sensitive Westerners into vegans!

SARS apparently originated in similar circumstances.

[Ed P]

My explainitory edit disappeared. ‘Wet’ does not mean fish even though fish are sold from large aquariums. Wet is better thought of as running with blood due to all the slaughtering that takes place in very unsanitary conditions.

[Ed P]

WHO sit reps can be accessed here.

[Ed P]

Cannot add edits with links!

For those interested the genetic family tree of Snake Flu can be found here.

[The VFM Addict]

@JayCeeDee

Best you research the Fermi Paradox with Google.  But in short in rough and ready fashion  – Why have we never made contact with another intelligent life form because we should have given the number of planets capable of supporting life?    Is there some barrier – The Great Filter –  beyond which intelligent life never manages to pass such as it to ever make contact with other intelligent life forms.     The question is that if there is a Great Filter are we alone in ever managing to have passed it or is it still ahead of us?

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

@Ed

Apparently 2019-nCov differs so much from other coronaviruses that it logically forms a new sub-genus.    The Wet market was closed before we knew much about the virus and seems to have been the epicentre from which proliferation flowed.    It was and remains in part all the Chinese had to go on.

Yes the virus shares much in common with known coronaviruses like SARS but it also differs very dramatically and may equally be of Bat origin.    There are very substantial sequences in its make-up that are like nothing we have seen before.

This paper submitted for peer reviewed journal publication is heavy going but still worth a read.   You can download a pdf of the full paper at that link.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Only just read this Reuters piece.    OMG.

These delays will have and will cost tens of thousands of lives if not hundreds.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I suspect that the Chinese have done a lot of research on the origin of SARS and had firmly identified a Wet Market link. (Fruit bats and things we would not consider edible are kept and slaughtered in such places). As soon as they identified a novel virus especially if in a wet market trader they would quickly know to isolate their problem area.

Check out the family tree I posted earlier, it shows the relationship with Bat origin viruses and the general rodent (murine) family .

For once I would not be quick to seize on a conspiracy theory as the Wuhan Chinese appear contrite that they had not appreciated the scale of the problem more quickly.

[edit] the Reuters piece identifying the difficulties the Mayor had in coming clean do not surprise me. It is typical of any authoritarian Government, and we have similar though hopefully lesser problems with our own!

[Richard]

I found the Reuters piece long on supposition and guesses but short of substance. Is it desirable to take sick people around to bug exchanges, (also known as hospitals)? There is no explicit treatment for those who have this illness and for the majority, bed rest, fluids and paracetamol are the treatment of choice. Arguments about which sort of bushmeat caused the problem do not assist. Outbreaks like this, are the clearest argument in favour of the severest possible clamp down. From the comments above, totally crap hygiene and rotten animal husbandry is at the root of this and previous outbreaks Those most at risk are said to comprise, the elderly, the sick and the very young.

I am concerned at the idea that those who might be recovered from China would be expected to self quarantine here, at home, I would rather they were brought to one central place for a fortnight to three weeks. An idle holiday camp or even MOD site would be a preferable option in my mind.

Bob, there were plague outbreaks in Suffolk between 1906 and 1918. They were localised, they killed, but did not spread. The theory is that earlier plagues were assisted by the poor health high density living with the prevalence of poor housing and smoke damage from indoor fires. Rats, fleas, poor hygiene and all played a part to bring down populations, but, containment did help save some areas in the Middle Ages.

[Richard]

Ed P wrote:

For once I would not be quick to seize on a conspiracy theory as the Wuhan Chinese appear contrite that they had not appreciated the scale of the problem more quickly. [edit] the Reuters piece identifying the difficulties the Mayor had in coming clean do not surprise me. It is typical of any authoritarian Government, and we have similar though hopefully lesser problems with our own!

In too many places sh1t flows down only gold travels up. In a case like this the bad news of the outbreak would make the worst possible item to go upwards unless it was absolutely established that there was no other way. That we now have the emerging problem is clear. The problem is political and structural, those in the lower order can never win.

[Bob Williams]

The VFM Addict wrote:

Why have we never made contact with another intelligent life form because we should have given the number of planets capable of supporting life? Is there some barrier – The Great Filter – beyond which intelligent life never manages to pass such as it to ever make contact with other intelligent life forms. The question is that if there is a Great Filter are we alone in ever managing to have passed it or is it still ahead of us?

IMHO it is certain that other life exists within our local galaxy, “given the number of planets capable of supporting life… ” If that life is intelligent, more advanced than humans and has had the means to follow the development of the human race over time, surely they would not want to initiate contact. Look at the history of humans on this planet: from earliest times, conflict. Wars of religion, in which another cultures beliefs are disputed, often to the point of genocide. The proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons, enough to destroy the planet and drive all life to extinction, many times over. A race that knows it is slowly destroying its own environment and driving other species into extinction. A race that is breeding itself into such numbers, that it may soon lack the capacity to feed itself. A race that lives on a planet that is 71% water, yet appears to be facing water shortages.

I believe that any intelligent life capable of surviving the effects of its its existence upon its own planet long enough to develop the technology to cross interstellar space, has become ‘civilised’. Whatever that means.

I think the Great Filter you speak of, is ourselves. It may be that another civilisation elsewhere, may be so advanced that humans would be incapable of understanding it. It is also true that another intelligence may be so different from ourselves, that we would not even recognise it as intelligent.

“The universe is not only stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.” – John Burdon Sanderson Haldane.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Bob the logic goes that if there is so much intelligent life around us, why have we not detected it or had them visit us. The (imo) somewhat flawed logic ignores that we have only been broadcasting a signal into space for a short time (and I can see much of that signal soon being gobbled up into other technologies e.g. fibre). It also ignores the ‘filter’ of interstellar travel – FTL travel has to be solved to have visitors.

[Ed P]

Today’s WHO report states that 80% of snake flu cases are mild. The other 20% they classify as severe. Deaths are running around 2.5%. The Global risk level is now placed at high.

Australia are going to put all their evacuees from China on Christmas Island for a couple of weeks. The UK Government of course are still pratting about.

[Boris]

Ed P wrote:

 Australia are going to put all their evacuees from China on Christmas Island for a couple of weeks. The UK Government of course are still pratting about.

Brownsea Island very nice ?

Never trust an atom - they make up everything !

[Ed P]

Lundy would be a better location for 400+++ people.

[JayCeeDee]

Ed P wrote:

Lundy would be a better location for 400+++ people.

No – it needs to be more remote from civilisation to ensure complete safety – the Shetlands, for example must have a suitable candidate, and the extreme cold might help kill off some nasties ( bugs/viruses, that is ) by way of a bonus.

By way of a second bonus, the Scots are saying they welcome free movement, we could give them a head start!!!

[Author]

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