[The VFM Addict]

Reports in the press this morning that a new more aggressive strain has now been identified in China.  There’s nothing like good news, is there !!!    My hunch is that it may be that strain that is circulating in Italy; pretty much as I suggested yesterday.    If so then Italy has seeded much of Europe with “Covid-19 on Steroids”.    I do wonder if others may be beginning to question their conclusion that I was panicking and scaremongering rather than simply telling folk the facts in their best interests so that they prepared.    Certainly HMG wasn’t being upfront.

Indeed even now on rational calculations using available facts and data, HMG are still declaring the worst case scenario to be a half or a third of what it is could well be.   I hope folks are waking up and might at last seek to prepare in earnest.   I’m prepared psychologically and logistically as far as humanly possible.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I do not know that the Government is totally to blame for where we are. They are pretty much following WHO and Medical ‘Expert’ guidelines to the letter, they have staked all on Containment as a strategy. Unfortunately due to poor mass psychology we will pretty soon face a dire ‘Oh crap!’ moment as that strategy inevitably goes pear-shaped.

(I’m not sure why the Containment strategy has persisted for such a long time given the known asymptomatic spread of the virus, we should have run a dual strategy of both containment and mitigation)

There isn’t much that retirees can do now except lower their risk profile as much as possible.

I think I’ll purchase a book on WWII recipes, as I think we may well be forced down to subsistence levels if things get really dire and month-long regional quarantines are imposed.

[Les.]

Called in at pharmacy this morning for some “Fisherman’s Friend”. The woman in front of me was asking about hand cleanser. out of stock, all gone.

Out of curiosity, I asked if any N95 masks. No!. We only have the simple paper face masks, and they are no use. I gave her VFM’s lecture on EVERYBODY wearing them, and reducing the spread, thus being in fact effective. Went to butchers, bought a chicken, and ordered an ox tongue. We already practice WW2 recipes. Saw a freshly killed POLECAT on the road yesterday. Regularly find pheasant, rabbit, hares, and my pal hit a wallaby which we shared. Never had polecat, but decided things are not that desperate.

Les.

[Ed P]

Iirc, polecats stink.

Had one got through my Uncle’s chicken coup and it took one or two and killed every other one, just for fun I guess. This was in the late 40s and chicken still fetched premium prices — my Uncle immediately reached for his 410, but never managed to find out where it lived.

[Ed P]

Why can’t Trump have a Covid-19 vaccine to wave around at the POTUS election?

The answer is in Wired Magazine complete with a vaccine primer.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Iirc, polecats stink. Had one got through my Uncle’s chicken coup and it took one or two and killed every other one, just for fun I guess. This was in the late 40s and chicken still fetched premium prices — my Uncle immediately reached for his 410, but never managed to find out where it lived.

Back in the day about 40 years ago I was an avid claybuster.   Most of the crowd I shot with were 50 to 60 from 100 on “Crossing Pigeon” which is the sporting clay equivalent of Skeet.   So quite a capable bunch.    For fun one weekend we decided to leave the 12 bores to one side and see how we faired with our .410’s at 25 clays.   We all laughed at Byron who was first up busting only 6.   But in the event that was better than most of us who managed only 4 or 5.   .410’s are great ratter guns but good for little else unless it is pretty much standing still or only a couple of feet away.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

PLEASE NOTE

For those who are still under the impression that this is just a bad flu the WHO estimate is now that the Case Fatality Rate is 3.4%     Flu kills far less than 1% in the UK.     Please start taking this very seriously, folks.

If you deteriorate to the point of needing hospital care it is 15%.    And if you reach critical between 33% and 50%.   I say again please start taking this very seriously, folks.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Too long ago to remember, but he was an excellent shot so probably had the over&under barrels choked to a tight pattern at 25 yards. I know his 410 was his go-to gun for vermin on his property, and an old commando catapult plus 0.5 inch ball-bearings for poaching game! This was still in the post-war rationing period so the hell with sportsmanship was his motto.

[Ed P]

The WHO have subtly amended their face-mask guidelines to bring them into line with Singaporean experience.

“If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.”

WHO Guidelines

I guess that this means most people in the UL should be wearing masks.

 

[Ed P]

Based on the new figures it looks like England = Hubei and London = Wuhan.

As The City is responsible for the greater part of our GDP it is going to be a bit of a challenge for the Government to balance this one. I just wish I had more faith in a Government led by a man who is useless at detail, and a Cummins  “éminence grise” right wing puppet master ,

I’m glad I can avoid London.

[The VFM Addict]

According to the BBC of the 115 UK cases to date; 25 in London and 17 in the South East.   Which pretty much means that London is likely to have Community Transmission chains going in all direction across it by now.   There’s no question in my mind that London will become the epicentre of the UK’s epidemic and become it overwhelmingly and very soon.   Time for SWMBO and me to batten down the hatches for a while, me thinks.

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[JayCeeDee]

Post deleted – new topic started instead.

[Ed P]

I cannot remember if this has been linked before, but it looks like @VFM was spot on with his comment about the importance of Zinc for improving your survival odds when you are infected by sars-covid-19. (no if about it any longer!)

I have not bothered to link it but a pathology of covid-19 deaths in China showed that most died following a ‘cytokine storm‘ in the lungs. If you get that forget just getting oxygen you will need to fight for the three places on the UK ECMO machines! I somehow think that Zinc will give you better odds.

NIH Zinc link

[Ed P]

[edit]

SWMBO and I are now on 25Mg/day which I will double at the first sign of infection and carry on at that rate until it is over – one way or another. 🎲

[Ed P]

One lie too many — I thought Politicians were trained to dissemble, not tell outright lies that are easily refuted!

Matt Hancock claims to have had discussions with Supermarkets – outright lie unless it was his local one!

In that same vein, the Guardian demolished many of his lies on Sars-Covid-19 Guardian link

[Ed P]

I warned a reunion group of mine that I would not be attending an end May reunion in London, as I felt that would be near the infection peak and not a good time for old pharts to be in town. I said that later in the year would be better. I also alerted the group to the posts we have had about the likely value of zinc in cutting down the death risk.

In response I received the following, from someone else who also had decided to chicken out.

“A friend of mine,, Dr Richard Hatchett MD was interviewed on Channel 4 News last night having had 20 yrs+ working in epidemiology. Among some other cogent remarks, he said that COVID 19 is the worst virus he’s so far personally come across and probably since the 1918 Spanish flu. Enough said!“

[Bob Williams]

And when you think being quarantined, to await your fate, is bad enough: –

https://tinyurl.com/tx29bvc

The victims are people quarantined because of contact with infected others. Just when they probably thought things could not get worse …

I expect an Inquiry will result in the builder/architect/City Planner* facing punishment.

*delete as necessary.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

At least one sensible idea is coming out of the Government and sporting Bodies think-tanks.

BAN old pharts over 70 from attending large gatherings of people.. I see it as an extremely sensible idea. It would achieve a lot of objectives:

It would save old people from themselves.

It would reduce potential loads on the NHS.

It would reduce the odds of NHS staff having to allocate scare resources based on age.

It would thin out crowds and cut transmission rates.

It is such a sensible suggestion that you can bet some addled brained Tory blimps will oppose it. Maybe it should also be applied to the seat of Government too!

[Ed P]

In case people missed it this is an overview of an important covid-19 interview on Channel 4. It starts to balance the lies and half-truths fed to us by Mushroom Matt Hancock.

Link

[Ed P]

A recent Adjusted Case Fatality Rate (CFR), suggests an overall CFR of 1.6. This assumes that Covid-19 is asymptomatic in 50% of cases and not reported as covid-19 for statistical purposes. The analysis makes other adjustments chiefly an assumption that it is only the young that are asymptomatic. The researchers offer zero rationale for this assumption but it results in a flu-like CFR for under 40s, and a reduction in CFR for under 60s. At the same time it increases the CFR for 60+ to roughly 5%, 10% for 70+ and 18% for 80+

These stats have to be treated with a lot of caution as the assumption that 50% of cases are undetected, and that all these are under 60 is to say the least a sweeping assumption. If true, this means that we are now approaching the 500 mark for cases in the UK.

Link to pdf

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